UEFA Cup Semis – Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV

What is certain is that the UEFA Cup final will be a clash between Ukraine and Germany. What is uncertain at this point is which representative of each country will be in the finals in Istanbul.

Werder Bermen and Hamburger SV set up an all-German affair in the second UEFA Cup semi-final on Thursday. The two clubs are domestic rivals and no strangers to each other. In fact, Werder Bremen have already won their semi-final clash against HSV in German Cup action last week. Coach Thomas Schaaf hopes his men will carry the momentum onto the European stage. Meanwhile, HSV would like nothing better than to return the favour on the very same stage by eliminating Werder. What is the soccer betting markets mood?

BetOnline bookies firmly favour Werder Bremen for the win in the first leg, installing them as the clear -115 favourites. HSV come in as the +300 puppies. Oddly enough, or maybe not so, the futures market is almost dispassionate, tipping Werder Bremen only as the marginal favourites at -130 compared to HSV at -110.

Soccer Betting Line:

Werder Bremen -½ -115 -115 3 O +120 U -140 1½ O -130 U Ev Draw +230

Hamburger SV +½ -105 +300 3 O +120 U -140 1 O -120 U -110 Draw +230

Futures Odds: To Qualify into Finals

Werder Bremen -130

Hamburger SV -110

Match Time: 02:45 P.M. Eastern Time Thursday April 30 2009

Venue: Weserstadion – Bremen – Germany

Soccer Betting Analysis: Emotions will run high in this all-German final especially as Bremen got the better of HSV recently in German Cup action. The memory of the triumph will be an advantage to Bremen as a launching pad for continued success. Similarly, the disappointing loss could be an advantage to HSV, motivating them to seek redemption on the European stage.

Soccer Betting Verdict: This is the first time in history two German sides battle against each other for a spot in the UEFA Cup finals. Both sides should live up to their billings. Werder will be careful not to concede at home. HSV will hope they do, at least to allow an away goal. Over 3 goals at +120 would be a good play, particularly as Werder are an attacking, free-scoring side.

Werder well at HSV in German Cup, but some would have it they were lucky to get the win on a penalty. They will be out to prove they were the better side tomorrow. Going for Werder is an encouraging home record, making them the value for the home win at -115. HSV should not be underestimated though. Revenge can be a huge motivator. Anything can happen, even an away win, but more likely would be a HSV holding Werder to a draw at +230.

Crown Royal Russ Friedman 400 Preview

After a rough ride at Talladega Superspeedway last weekend which saw the favorites fail to take the checkered flag, NASCAR betting fans hope for a smoother drive on Saturday night when the Sprint Cup Series races under the lights of Richmond International Raceway in the Crown Royal Presents the Russ Friedman 400.

After a few large smashups took care of many notable names at Talladega last week, Brad Keselowski came out of nowhere to record his first career NASCAR win. It looked like Carl Edwards was on the way to his first win of the season with the lead on the final lap, but a slight bump from Keselowski caused Edwards to spin out and go airborne into the protective fencing in the spectacular crash. Keselowski went on to claim the checkers, while Edwards was rewarded with a 24th-place finish. Keselowski’s victory was surprising since he didn’t even receive individual odds on the NASCAR odds last week. Even after his win that hasn’t changed, and if you want to bet on Keselowski to make it two in a row this weekend you have to take The Field on the NASCAR odds at +3000.

Finishing behind Keselowski at Talladega last week was Dale Earnhardt Jr. in second with his best result of the season, and Ryan Newman in third. Kurt Busch crossed the line in sixth place and that was just good enough to propel him to the top of the driver standings. Former leader Jeff Gordon was involved in an early crash and finished well back in 37th place. Busch’s lead is not a comfortable one, though, as he leads Gordon by only five points.

Last year at Richmond Clint Bowyer won the Crown Royal Dan Lowry 400. That was Bowyer’s lone win of the season, and so far this year his best finish was fourth place in the Daytona 500. Bowyer finished near the back of the pack last week in 39th place and he returns to Richmond as a +3000 underdog on the NASCAR odds.

The favorite this weekend is Jimmie Johnson at +450. Johnson has a history of winning at Richmond having won three of the last four races held there. Johnson won this race in 2007 and he also won back-to-back Chevy Rock and Roll 400s at Richmond in 2007 and 2008. Johnson had posted four straight Top-4 finishes before having his streak snapped at Talladega last week; a crash ended Johnson’s day early and he ended up finishing in 30th place.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota – Struggling Rays turn to Kazmir

The Tampa Bay Rays (8-13 SU, 9-12 RL, 9-12 O/U) and the Minnesota Twins (10-11 SU, 7-14 RL, 10-11 O/U) will both be trying to pick up a win for BetOnline MLB betting fanatics everywhere when they battle at The Metrodome tonight at 8 PM ET.

The struggling Rays have dropped three of four and seven of its last 10 overall including Tuesday’s narrow 4-3 loss to Minnesota.

The Twins won as -120 home favorites while the final score played under the 8-run O/U total in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

Justin Morneau hit a two-run homer for the Twins while rock-solid closer Joe Nathan picked up the win in relief of starter Francisco Liriano.

Morneau’s run-scoring fielder’s choice in the bottom of the ninth inning lifted Minnesota to victory.

Tonight, the Rays will turn to left-hander Scott Kazmir (3-1, 3.97) who has won both of his road starts this season and is coming off a strong performance in which he allowed just two hits in six scoreless innings of Tampa Bay’s 8-2 win over Oakland on Friday.

The Twins will counter with veteran right-hander Nick Blackburn (1-1, 4.44) who looks to record his second straight victory after limiting the Cleveland Indians to one run over seven innings of a 5-1 road win on Friday.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

• The Rays are 6-1 in Kazmir’s last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
• The Rays are 10-3 in Kazmir’s last 13 Wednesday starts.
• The Twins are 4-0 in Blackburn’s last 4 home starts.
• The Twins are 4-1 in Blackburn’s last 5 starts on field turf.
• The Over is 4-0 in Kazmir’s last 4 starts overall.
• The Under is 5-1-1 in Blackburn’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• The Rays are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings.
• The Rays are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in Minnesota.

MLB Odds

• Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +125
• Scott Kazmir –L -135
• Minnesota Twins +1½ -145
• Nick Blackburn –R +115
• Over 8 -120
• Under 8 Ev

Analysis: The Minnesota Twins have gone a perfect 4-0 in Nick Blackburn’s last four home starts, but the Rays have been pretty darned good with Scott Kazmir on the mound as well, winning six of his last seven Wednesday starts.

I think this pick is pretty simple as I expect the Twins to cover the Run Line in what looks like a one-run ballgame to me. I also like the Under to play out for the third straight game between these ballclubs.

MLB Free Picks: Minnesota +1½ Runs/Under 8 Total Runs

Rome Masters R16 Quick Picks – Federer, Cilic and Gonzalez

Rome, Italy – In the tennis betting market today the online tennis betting community has a selection of last 16 matchups on the ATP Masters Series in Rome to consider. The premier tournament takes one-step closer toward the finale on Sunday and tennis bettors have some standout bets to wager on as the last 16 players try to keep their bid alive. So, to get you started betting on tennis, here is a look at one of the four quarterfinal matchups open for online betting, complete with fast facts, reviews, tennis betting lines and tennis free picks.

Tennis Betting Line: Fernando Gonzalez   -600        Jurgen Melzer     +350  

Match Time: 07:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday April 29 2009

Tennis Betting Analysis: Jurgen Melzer punched above his weight class to reach the last 16 in Rome. He took out Julien Benneteau in the opening round and followed up with an upset victory over Nikolay Davydenko. Next up for Melzer is Fernando Gonzalez, a talented clay-courter and the player most expect will end Melzer’s run in Rome Fernando Gonzalez has had some devastating moments this term and he has been consistent, which has not always been the case with the Chilean. He won a clay court title earlier this year in Vina del Mar. The bookies favour Gonzalez at -600 and the betting trend falls in line. Melzer would have to play out of his mind to beat Gonzalez. Frankly, I don’t see that happening.

Tennis Betting Picks: Gonzalez in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line Juan Monaco  -165         Marin Cilic     +125  

Match Time: 07:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday April 29 2009

Tennis Betting Analysis: Juan Monaco orchestrated the tournaments biggest upset to date when he bounced fourth seed Andy Murray in the second round. Monaco stormed back from a set down to beat Murray 1-6, 6-3, 7-5. The victory has to be a huge confidence boost for this talented Argentine and one that could be the launching pad to a successful run in Rome. Next up is Marin Cilic the 16th seed. The rising Croatian star is a player to watch and on any other surface, he would have the clear edge. But clay is not his best surface and he is at a decided disadvantage coming up against a clay court specialist like Monaco. Even the bookies agree and tip him as the underdog at +125. Now this could be a great price for tennis bettors to take advantage of but methinks it is bait. If Monaco can find his rhythm on clay as he did against Murray, he should be able to dismiss Cilic.

Tennis Betting Verdict: Monaco in straight sets

Tennis Betting Picks: Del Potro

Tennis Betting Line Radek Stepanek +500         Roger Federer     -1000

Match Time: 07:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday April 29 2009

Tennis Betting Analysis: Federer lost to Radek Stepanek last year in Rome. He will have a chance to rectify that result tomorrow. Overall, Federer owns a 7-2 edge over Stepanek. Since that surprise loss in Rome, Federer has beaten Stepanek three consecutive times without dropping a set either. All three matches were on hard though. Stepanek’s two victories over Federer came on clay. The first was way back in 2002 in Gstaad and the second in Rome last year. Lifetime, they are level 2-2 on clay.

Therefore, will this match be as straightforward as the tennis betting line suggests. Most likely, yes. Federer’s hiccup in Rome was a disappointment but he bounced back against the Czech convincingly since and he should go one better tomorrow.

Tennis Betting Picks: Federer in straight sets

Greinke Looks to Stay Perfect – Blue Jays at Royals

MLB Sports Betting – Greinke Looks To Stay Perfect, Take Rubber Match Against Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays (15-7 SU, 11-11 RL, 13-9 O/U) and Kansas City Royals (10-10 SU, 14-6 RL, 7-13 O/U) will both be gunning for a victory in the BetOnline Sportsbook Wednesday when they meet at Kauffman Stadium tonight at 8 PM ET.

After falling to the Royals on Monday night, the Blue Jays recorded an emphatic 8-1 win over the Royals on Tuesday as veteran outfielder Vernon Wells went 3-for-5 with three RBI.

Toronto cashed for MLB betting fantaics as +135 road underdogs while the nine total runs played just Over the 8.5-run O/U total in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

Tonight, the Blue Jays will hand the ball to left-hander Brian Tallet (1-0, 0.82 ERA) while the Royals counter with scorching hot ace left-hander Zach Greinke (4-0, 0.00 ERA).

Tallet, who makes his third straight start for Toronto, limited the Chicago White Sox to just four hits while striking out five in 5.2 innings of a 14-0 win on Friday, his first victory as a starter since 2002.

Greinke however, is coming off of consecutive complete-game outings and enters tonight’s contest looking to become the major leagues’ first five-game winner.

Greinke allowed one unearned run and just three hits while striking out 10 for the second straight contest in a 6-1 win over Detroit at home on Friday after tossing seven-hitter in a 2-0 victory at Texas on April 18 in his previous start.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

• The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
• The Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• The Royals are 6-0 in Greinke’s last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Royals are 8-0 in Greinke’s last 8 starts.
• The Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a road underdog.
• The Under is 5-0 in Greinke’s last 5 starts overall.
• The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
• The Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Kansas City.
• The Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

MLB Odds:

• Toronto Blue Jays +1½ -165
• Brian Tallet –L +130
• Kansas City Royals -1½ +145
• Zack Greinke –R -150
• Over 7½ -120
• Under 7½ Ev

Analysis: While the Toronto Blue Jays are the ‘better’ team in this contest, I like the Kansas City Royals to win and cover the Run Line on the strength of Zack Greinke’s powerful right arm.

The blossoming right-hander has been nothing short of spectacular in every start this season and I fully expect him to tame the veteran Blue Jays tonight while leading the Royals to victory.

Take the Royals to cover the Run Line and the Under to play out for the second time in this series.

MLB Free Picks: Kansas City Royals -1½ Runs/Under 7½ Total Runs

Top-10 NFL Draft Busts

Matthew Stafford was selected first overall this weekend in the 2009 NFL Draft. That’s not even the best part! He was given $41.7 million in the process! To put this in perspective, most college graduates make about $30K a year. So to make as much as Stafford got, fresh out of college, you get to work 1,390 more years.

Now I’m not saying that Stafford is due to be a bust. But there’s a long line of historic failures in the draft and I just couldn’t resist. So on to it!

(By the way, an honorable mention goes to Michael Vick, who never led his team to the Superbowl, murdered hundreds of innocent dogs, went bankrupt faster than Jermaine Dupruis, and began becoming a liability at quarterback because the only thing he loved doing more than killing puppies was overthrowing his receivers…and spreading STD’s under the name “Ron Mexico”. However, according he isn’t really a “bust” since he was a Pro-Bowl caliber player)

10. Brian Bosworth (1987 Supplemental Draft)
You think Stafford was overpaid as a rookie? Well you, my young friend, might be too young for the awesomeness of The Boz!  The two-time Butkus Award winner was given $11 million over 10 years AFTER he was discovered using steroids in college and BEFORE he had played a snap in the NFL. He then sued the league so he could wear #44 (a case he lost), and blew the majority of his revenue on hair bleach. Not so surprisingly, Bosworth made an attempt at commentating…in the XFL! Oh the irony. The sweet, delicious irony.

9. David Carr (1st Overall – 2002 Draft – Houston Texans)
I’ll admit, when Carr entered the league, everyone thought he had the skills, and tenacity, to become a viable NFL quarterback. The Texans, however, elected to build the team from the outside in, refusing to insulate Carr with the offensive line to protect him. Carr has eaten more turf than a sexually confused Lindsay Lohan.

When he was dumped and picked off the scrap heap by the Panthers, everyone thought it was a matter of time before he would replace Jake Delhomme in Carolina. Instead, we were all caught in our living rooms uttering the expression, “oh…oh wow…I was way off about David Carr…oh my…no, don’t do that!…oh good lord…switch back to the Lions-Vikings game, this is just awful”.

8. Tim Couch (1st Overall – 1999 Draft – Cleveland Browns)
If the 1999 Draft Class had a 10 year reunion, like a high school class would, Couch is the guy that wouldn’t RSVP. Why? You can never argue that Couch was one of the worst draft picks in history when you consider the class behind him. That includes Champ Bailey, Donavan McNabb, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams and Torry Holt. It also includes Akili Smith, but he’s more or less the guy who would get drunk off the free punch screaming, “I used to BE SOMEBODY!!!” while everyone pretended he wasn’t there.  Speaking of the Bengals…

7. Peter Warrick (4th Overall – 2000 Draft – Cincinnati Bengals)
It’s easy to argue that Courtney Brown was the worst pick in the 2000 draft, but how many times has a defensive end not lived up to snuff? I’m not letting Warrick escape my clutches. Warrick was absurdly productive at FSU when he won a championship against Michael Vick with Chris Weinke as his quarterback. He had an incredible college career. So what the hell happened?

The Bengals happened. He was lost in the shuffle of a horrific Bengals team that got trampled by the NFL for countless seasons. Warrick has since gone to the AFL, where his hopes of getting noticed by the NFL vanished in a sea of Bengals’ misery. It probably didn’t help that Plaxico Burress was selected eighth overall in that very same draft.

6. Robert Gallery (2nd Overall – 2004 Draft – Oakland Raiders)
Yeah, I know. He’s in a long list of idiots that that the Raiders drafted. But by God, he’s my favorite. He’s disgusting to look at. His hair’s too long, he has too many ugly tattoos, he gets blown apart by 98% of defensive lineman in the NFL and he’s a fat, surly tub of wasted space. He was also taken over Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Ben Roethlisberger, Jonathan Vilma, Lee Evans, Sean Taylor and Philip Rivers.

And while Gallery isn’t nearly as bad as the other offensive lineman on this list, he makes the cut simply for epitomizing what the Raiders have been for the last five years: an overbearingly loud, underachieving, train wreck of unmitigated disaster. So at the very least, Gallery fits in Oakland’s master plan.

5. Lawrence Phillips (6th Overall – 1996 Draft – St. Louis Rams)
Phillips was a stud in the 1996 Fiesta Bowl. Scouts loved his on-field potential so much, they neglected how much of a dickhead he was off the field. He posted 600+ yards in his first two seasons with the Rams, then went on to finish with 188 yards over the last two seasons, ranking him as the worst running-back ever taken in the top-10. And yes, he was way worse than Ron Dayne.

4. Charles Rodgers (2nd Overall – 2003 Draft – Detroit Lions)
Matt Millen will be remembered for being the GM that constantly burned up Detroit’s first-round pick on a receiver. It became the running gag in the NFL, so even when the Lions desperately needed a quarterback in the 2009 Draft, everyone thought they would go Milllen and grab Michael Crabtree first overall, just for the sake of both hilarity and continuity.

But amongst all of Millen’s draft busts, nobody was worse than Charles Rodgers. And it burns mostly because Rodgers is out of the league…and they took the wrong receiver. Houston drafted some guy named Andre Johnson with the third pick in 2003.

3. Tony Mandarich (2nd Overall – 1989 Draft – Green Bay Packers)
Mandarich has been excessively publicized for announcing that he did steroids. What a surprise! Widely remembered as the offensive lineman who appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated with the words “Best Offensive Lineman Prospect…Ever” next to his hulking frame, Mandarich was massive in both frame and hype.  So when the Packers elected to take Mandarich over Barry Sanders in the 1989 Draft, naturally people had high hopes for the 6-foot-6, 315 pound needle pumper. Mandarich survived two whole seasons on the Packers bench and was verifiably useless as a lineman.

Walter Jones, Tarik Glenn and Joe Thomas have all been offensive lineman taken in the first round. And all of them are pro-bowlers. So when you get taken second overall and can’t block a soul, you’re literally the biggest bust ever.

2. Alex Smith (1st Overall – 2005 Draft – San Francisco 49ers)
The Niners have a history of blowing top picks on bad quarterbacks (Jim Druckenmiler, anyone?). But Smith, who is entering his fourth year in the NFL is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Smith was noted for his absurd academic intelligence, acquiring a Masters degree in Economics after only three years. Too bad that didn’t translate in to a high NFL IQ. Smith was drafted ahead of DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown and quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 Draft. Smith is the second highest paid player on the Niners roster, making nearly $12 million in 2008. That was $6 million for each touchdown he threw last year. Wait a second…so that’s how he’s using his Masters in Economics!

1. Ryan Leaf (2nd Overall – 1998 Draft – San Diego Chargers)
Leaf is the poster boy for draft busts in the NFL after  the Chargers took him second overall. The Chargers blew the farm to move up one spot to nab Ryan Leaf, and boy did they live to regret it. Leaf had all the tangible qualities of a solid quarterback. Too bad his head wasn’t screwed on right. Leaf was neither mature enough, nor intelligent enough to maximize the immense talents that scouts universally agreed he possessed.

He lashed out at reports for asking – gasp! – difficult questions. He berated his own Dad in the locker room (what his Dad was doing there in the first place is beyond me…probably changing his diaper). Leaf meandered through the league as a stubborn idiot who never grew up. Even when he was a quarterback coach at the college level, he never showed his immense capacity of idiocy by getting drugs from one of his players.

Maturity is the most important quality of any quarterback, and it’s impossible to measure in kids so young. Leaf should have taught the NFL a stern lesson – sometimes kids just aren’t ready for the NFL. Look at Vince Young. Look at Michael Vick for heaven’s sake. Look at all the guys that try and fail at this position because we can’t measure maturity.

Leaf was supposed to be the martyr for NFL brats. But the league hasn’t learned anything. They’re still tossing bags of cash at kids that may or may not be ready for the NFL. And this country wonders why it’s in a recession.

Oakland at Texas – Parlay the Over and the A’s

A’s Look To Continue Beat-down On Struggling Padilla

The Oakland Athletics (7-11 SU, 9-9 RL, 10-8 O/U) and Texas Rangers (10-10 SU, 10-10 RL, 11-7-2 O/U) will each be looking to record an SU and RL victory in the BetOnline Sportsbook when they square off at Rangers Ballpark tonight at 8 PM ET.

Texas won its second consecutive game on Tuesday, beating the A’s 5-4 on Nelson Cruz’s RBI-single in the bottom of the eighth inning. The Rangers won as -145 home favorites while the final score played under the 10-run O/U total.

Tonight, the A’s will hand the ball to left-hander Josh Outman (0-0, 5.23) who will make his seventh career start and third this season. Outman has thrown two scoreless innings out of the bullpen since making his last start on April 17 when he allowed up five runs in four innings in an 8-5 win at Toronto.

The Rangers will counter with veteran right-hander Vicente Padilla (1-1, 8.27 ERA) who has been smacked around hard all season long, allowing at least three runs in each of his four starts this season including allowing four runs in 6.2 innings in the Rangers’ 5-4 win over Baltimore on Friday.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

• The Athletics are 13-6 in their last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• The Athletics are 20-42 in their last 62 games as a road underdog.
• The Rangers are 4-0 in Padilla’s last 4 Wednesday starts.
• The Rangers are 10-2 in Padilla’s last 12 starts vs. American League West.
• The Over is 4-1 in Padilla’s last 5 starts vs. Athletics.
• The Rangers are 7-2 in Padilla’s last 9 starts vs. Athletics.
• The Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
• The Athletics are 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in Texas.

MLB Odds:

• Oakland A’s +1½ -170
• Josh Outman –L +120
• Texas Rangers -1½ +150
• Vicente Padilla –R -140
• Over 11 -105
• Under 11 -115

Analysis: With two mediocre starting pitchers taking the hill in this one, I think the Over is the best play for this matchup.

Vicente Padilla has been a batter’s best friend in the early going of the 2009 season while A’s hurler Josh Outman hasn’t been much better.

I like the Over to play out and the Rangers to cover the Run Line by pushing for the outright win behind Padilla.

MLB Free Picks: Over 11 Total Runs/Oakland A’s +1½ Runs

WTA Stuttgart Second Round Picks – Safina, Jankovic and more…

Stuttgart, Germany – In online tennis betting this week, two women’s singles tennis tournaments –  Porsche Tennis Grand Prix and Gran Prix de SAR LA PRINCESSE LALLA MERYEM –  are available on the sports betting market, and sports bettors will not want to be left out of the action! So read-up on some of the tennis free picks below and start wagering on tennis.

Tennis Betting Line: Tsvetana Pironkova +275         Agnieszka Radwanska     -450

Match Time: 07:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday April 30 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Eighth seed Agnieszka Radwanska leads the head-to-head series 5-1.  The last time the Bulgarian Tsvetana Pironkova got into the win column over Radwanska was in 2007. It is safe to assume, Agnieszka is a solid favourite coming into this match and her -450 odds, though not bank busting, are worth the risk. Yet, Radwanska has not had the best season to date. She comes in at an underwhelming 9-7 mark into Stuttgart. She made a confident stat to her bid in Stuttgart, beating Aleksandra Wozniak of Canada 7-6(2), 6-0. Might she be on the mend and on her way to finding her old form?

Tennis Betting Picks: Radwanska in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Safina vs. Hantuchova

Match Time: 07:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday April 30 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Top seed Dinara Safina made a confident start to her campaign, annihilating Sara Erranni, who is a pretty decent clay court player, 6-0, 6-1. Next up for Safina is Daniela Hantuchova of Slovakia. Surprisingly, Hantuchova leads the head-to-head series 3-2, which includes three consecutive victories from 2006-2008. Hantuchova first beat Safina, ironically in the first round of Stuttgart three years ago and has not lost since to the Russian. Their last encounter was in Sydney 2008, several months before Safina found stellar form and went on a determined tear through the WTA tour. Safina is in her best shape ever, sporting a career high ranking of world No.2.  Hantuchova has yet to face the new and improved Safina. As such, expect Safina to come out on top.

Tennis Betting Picks: Safina in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Jankovic vs. Lisicki

Match Time: 07:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday April 30 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Third seed Jelena Jankovic takes on a promising young teenager in Sabine Lisicki of France. Lisicki made a breakthrough in Charleston (clay) winning her maiden title. She enters Stuttgart on a wild card. French fans are anxious to see how their daughter will fare against one of the top five players on the WTA tour. Few expect her to advance past Jankovic. The bookies favour Jankovic and the betting trend falls in line. The hope for Lisicki is that she will give a good account of herself.

Tennis Betting Picks: Jankovic in straight sets.

Starting a New Streak – Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

Game-day:  4/29/2009
First-pitch:  7:05 pm est.

The red hot Boston Red Sox continue their march through the A.L. with the final game of a three game series against the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night.  Boston did lose to the Indians 9 to 8 in last night’s game, but before that the Red Sox had swept their hated rivals, the New York Yankees.  Boston sends pitcher Jon Lester to the mound.  Lester has gone 1 and 2 so far this season for a less than spectacular ERA of 4.88.  His WHIP is 1.50 which isn’t very good.

The Indians counter Lester with pitcher Fausto Carmona.  At one time, Carmona was considered a serious up and comer but lately things haven’t been going well for him.  His ERA is an atrocious 7.36 and his WHIP of 1.73 is one of the reasons he is 1 and 3 on the season.  His WHIP means that Carmona is averaging close to 2 base runners per inning.  That’s not good.

Here is the BetOnline betting line for this game.

Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester – L                       -1 ½ +130        -130     O 9 ½ Ev        O/U 4 ½ 125/-105

Cleveland Indians
Fausto Carmona – R                        +1 ½ -150        +110    U 9 ½ -120      O/U 4 -125/-105

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

• The Boston Red Sox are 11 and 1 in their last 12 games overall.
• The Boston Red Sox are 1 and 5 in Jon Lester’s last 6 starts on the road.
• The Cleveland Indians are 4 and 1 in Fausto Carmona’s last 5 starts at home as an underdog.
• The Cleveland Indians are 1 and 4 in Fausto Carmona’s last 5 starts overall.

Carmona is still suffering the affects of an injury.  That could account for why his WHIP is so high.  In any case, he has little chance against a super hot Boston Red Sox team.

Lester will give up a few runs in this but Carmona is going to give up more.  Betting Boston is a smart thing to do at -130.  It’s also the safe thing to do, but I see an opportunity to make above even money on this game and I’m going to take it.

The chances of the Indians beating the Red Sox in this are almost nil.  The chances of the Indians getting close to the Red Sox aren’t that good either.  I just see Boston dominating.

I’m going to bet Jon Lester and the Boston Red Sox at -1 ½ +130.

Must Win for the Bombers – New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

Game-day:  4/29/2009
Game-time:  7:05 pm est.

The New York Yankees take on the Detroit Tigers in a game that the Yankees almost have to win.  If they lose to Detroit tonight, then New York will have lost 5 out of their last 6 and really won’t have a shot to recover in the very difficult A.L. East Division.  New York could not only finish behind the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays but also behind the Toronto Blue Jays.  The only team the Yankees might beat in the division, if they continue to lose, will be the Baltimore Orioles.

New York sends Joba Chamberlain to the mound.  Chamberlain has talent but his off the field antics have led to a less than spectacular performance on the mound.  He hasn’t garnered a decision yet this season but his ERA of 3.94 and WHIP of 1.83 makes him a tough guy to back.  The WHIP should be difficult for gamblers to overcome.

Detroit counters with Rick Porcello.  Porcello has a worse record, 1 and 2, and a worse ERA, 4.50, but when it comes to WHIP, he’s better than Chamberlain at 1.17. 

Here is the BetOnline Sportsbook betting line for this game.

New York Yankees
Joba Chamberlain – R         -1 ½ -170         -135     O 9 -120          O/U 4 ½ -130/Ev

Detroit Tigers
Rick Porcello – R                  +1 ½ -140        +115    U 9 Ev                        O/U 4 ½ -125/-105

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

• The New York Yankees are 1 and 4 in Joba Chamberlain’s last 5 starts on the road.
• The New York Yankees are 1 and 4 in their last 5 games overall.
• The Detroit Tigers are 6 and 1 in their last 7 games following a loss.
• The Detroit Tigers are 8 and 3 in their last 11 home games.

The trends say that the Tigers pull this game out no matter what Porcello does.  I have to agree with the trends in this one because the Yankees were fantastic yesterday, beating the Tigers 11 to 0, but that was yesterday.

The Yankees aren’t better than the Tigers.  Not 11 to 0 better, and the Tigers will go into this fired up and ready to bounce back as the 6 to 1 after a loss trend suggests.

Another key stat is the fact that Chamberlain is averaging close to 2 base runners per inning while Porcello is averaging only 1.  If the WHIP stat plays out, then the Tigers will have more opportunities to score.

I like the Tigers in this at +115 in the sportsbook.

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