Negative Offseason Transactions That Could Hurt Teams

BetOnline NFL sports betting enthusiasts that are gearing up for the start of the 2009 NFL wagering season should know that, in the new-age NFL, franchises that makes the right free agent transactions during the NFL’s annual offseason free agent signing period, can be lifted from the status of pretender to legitimate contender in the blink of an eye.

However, for those teams that don’t make the correct free agent transactions, either by failing to address a key need – or by bringing in the wrong players – can reverse their good fortunes just as quickly as a blossoming team can improve.

With that said, this look at the worst NFL free agent transactions this offseason, will help BetOnline NFL sports betting members to make wise NFL wagering selections in the bettor-friendly BetOnline Sportsbook on a weekly basis beginning with the NFL’s annual preseason contests.

With NFL training camps getting under way in a matter of weeks, let’s get started.

Philadelphia Eagles

While the Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1 SU, 10-6 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U in 2008) pulled off two solid free agent signings by adding veteran cornerback Ellis Hobbs and Pro Bowl offensive tackle Jason Peters, the Birds also make the list for teams that made some of the worst offseason free agent decisions as well.

Fist and foremost, the Eagles’ failure to land – or even go after – disgruntled Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Anquan Boldin – was a huge mistake that can not be understated in my estimation. Boldin would have given the Eagles the first top-flight receiver that Donovan McNabb has had since Terrell Owens took his idiotic act out of the City of Brotherly Love following a brief but tumultuous tenure with the Birds a few seasons ago. No disrespect to feet-footed soon-to-be second-year receiver DeSean Jackson, who I think is going to be a star one day, but Boldin could have been an immediate difference-maker for the Eagles and one that could have helped to push the Super Bowl contenders over the top.

The Eagles also make this list for parting ways with too many of their former players that could have still been key contributors to the team’s success this coming season, most notably, veteran safety Brian Dawkins, a player that can still get the job done and ‘lay the hammer’ almost as well as any safety in the game today.

Philadelphia also let running back Correll Buckhalter, wide receiver Greg Lewis, tight end L.J. Smith, tackle Tra Thomas and cornerback Lito Sheppard, but the biggest and most perplexing loss was that of Dawkins. The Eagles are +1600 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U in 2008) foolishly parted ways with at least two veterans that could still help this team in a big way in quarterback Jeff Garcia and running back Warrick Dunn. Tampa Bay also parted ways with a slew of other veterans including wide receivers Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard, tight end, Alex Smith, longtime Pro Bowl linebacker Derrick Brooks and defensive end Kevin Carter.

Now, the only reason I won’t rip the Buccaneers and their front office personnel too much is the fact that this franchise is clearly headed in a new direction under first-time NFL head coach Raheem Morris and is basically building from the ground up with a plethora of young players.

Expect Tampa Bay to take a step back In 2009 from its 9-7 SU record they posted in 2008 as the begin a rebuilding process that will almost assuredly leave them on the outside looking in come playoff time in the powerful NFC. The Buccaneers are +4000 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo (7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-7-1 O/U in 2008) foolishly added divisive, head case wideout Terrell Owens after the Dallas Cowboys washed their hands of the problem-causing Owens following another tumultuous season in Dallas. Now, were the Bills a legitimate Super Bowl contender that just need a playmaking wide receiver that could have helped them to make a Super Bowl appearance in either the first or second year, I would not have put Buffalo on this list, but the fact of the matter is that Buffalo is no closer to reaching the Super Bowl out of the AFC than they were before they signed the mercurial wide receiver. However, the Bills are not a title contender and the addition of Owens may do nothing but cause future problems for young quarterback Trent Edwards once Owens begins his almost-certain finger pointing, usually in the direction of the team’s starting quarterback. Maybe it’s me, but I say this free agent signing has been the strangest one of all this offseason. The Bills are +5000 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears

I put both, the Dolphins (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 O/U) and Bears (9-7 SU, 6-8-2 ATS, 7-9 O/U) on this list for their respective failures to go after Arizona Cardinals disgruntled wide receiver Anquan Boldin despite each team’s painstakingly apparent needs at the position. The Cardinals wanted two second-round draft picks for the Pro Bowl receiver and I think those demands were very reasonable from Arizona. Miami and Chicago both decided to draft two receivers before the fifth round; clearly taking their chances that their selections will turn out to be key contributors in the near futures rather than take their chances on a high-priced veteran that could help them win right away. Chicago could have given new quarterback Jay Cutler a legitimate No. 1 receiver to work with this season, but now the Bears and Fins will both begin the 2009 season with the same question marks at the wide receiver position. out The Dolphins are +5000 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetOnline Sportsbook while the Bears are +2000 to win this upcoming season’s Super Bowl championship.

Favourites Azarenka and Serena Williams battle for a spot in the semis

London, Great Britain – This is the most-anticipated match on the tennis betting ledger as Wimbledon betting continues at BetOnline Sportsbook. Serena Williams and Viktoria Azarenka – two of the top favourites for the Wimby title – collide in the quarterfinals, with a spot in the semis on the line. Serena Williams is a serious favourite in the market but puppy Azarenka beat Serena the last time they met and tennis bettors would do worse than back the Belarusian for the win and what would be the biggest upset of the tournament in the women’s game.

Tennis Betting Line: Victoria Azarenka +225 Serena Williams -350

Match Time: 06:00 A.M. Eastern Time Tuesday June 30 2009

Head-to-head Analysis: Serena Williams leads 2-1 lifetime but the last time she came across Viktoria Azarenka was at the Sony Ericsson Open title match wherein she lost 6-3, 6-1.

Tennis betting Analysis:

Viktoria Azarenka +225: The Belarusian teenager comes in as the underdog in the market but she the way she has been playing this season she is not an underdog. Azarenka enjoyed some breakthroughs this season, namely winning her first big title in Miami, ironically over Serena Williams. Azarenka picked up two other titles as well Brisbane (her maiden title) and Memphis. Overall, she is an impressive 32-6 on the season.

Azarenka met Williams earlier this season at the Aussie Open R16 where she took the first set 6-3 off the American before she withdrew with stomach illness in the second set, down 2-4. Azarenka looked like she would orchestrate the biggest upset down under but a stomach bug stopped her. She has her second shot at Serena on the major stage, significantly, it comes after having beaten Williams in Miami.

Serena Williams -350: There are many tennis reasons why Serena Williams is a good play (10 Grand Slam titles the most obvious). She is 25-7 coming into Wimbledon with one title – the Aussie Open. She was the runner-up last year, losing to big sister Venus. There is nothing she would like better than to win the Wimby trophy this year. She has a tough youngster to overcome in Azarenka and perhaps the nagging doubt whether she would have won that Aussie Open R16 match had Azarenka not succumbed to a stomach bug.

Tennis Betting Verdict: No matter which way you slice this match there is value as both players are quality options that have a real shot to go to the semis. Williams is the more seasoned of the two; Azarenka is a hungry youngster anxious for a slice of Grand Slam glory. The tennis betting trend will favour Serena Williams; but methinks, Azarenka has a real shot.

Tennis Free Picks: Azarenka in straight sets

Rachel Alexandra headlines Saturday Picks

Padding Your Bankroll: Saturday June 27

The headliners on Saturday are named Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, but it certainly is going to be tough to pad our bankroll backing the two best female runners in training.

Rachel Alexandra makes her first start since beating the boys in the Preakness Stakes (G1) this afternoon at Belmont Park.

The filly is the overwhelming favorite in the $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes (G1), which drew a compact field of five.

She is 1-5 on the morning line and it is tough to come up with a scenario where she gets beat.

On the left coast later this afternoon, the undefeated Zenyatta will be attempting to make it eleven wins in a row in the $300,000 Vanity Handicap (G1), a race she won last year.

She faces seven overmatched foes and will be sent to post as the huge favorite.

It will be interesting to see how these two perform, and compare and debate their efforts in the upcoming days, but we are in this to make a few bucks.

That sends me looking for a solid Racebook betting race, and I found it at Colonial Downs this afternoon in the $50,000 Da Hoss Stakes.

The one-mile turf race drew a competitive field of 14, with eight of the runners owning wins over the beautiful turf course at the New Kent, Va. track.

My top pick Baltimore Bob is sent out by a red-hot trainer and is dropping out of tougher company. The 8/1 morning line looks generous on the colt, which will send me straight to the windows looking to pad my bankroll.

Colonial Downs Race 9 $50,000 Da Hoss Stakes Post time 4:39 ET

#7 Baltimore Bob 8/1

#5 Jungle Fighter 4/1

#2 Auction Watch 5/2

#8 Midwatch 12/1

#7 Baltimore Bob is going to be decent value in here if we catch most of his 8/1 morning line. The colt has been facing tougher, exiting a eighth place finish in the Grade 2 Dixie where he was beaten 3 ¾ lengths for the top spot. Two back the colt had a tough post and raced wide much of the trip in the Henry Clark, which was off a two-month break.

Three back he had to steady on the far turn in a sixth place finish in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida, which has turned out to be a highly rated race. The third place finisher Spice Route came back to win the Grade 2 Elkhorn and the fourth place finisher Mr. Sidney won the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark in his next outing. Our top pick is 3 for 4 at today’s distance and is making his third start of his current form cycle for the Garcia barn that has been ending out live runners at the meeting (18-6-5-3).

#5 Jungle Fighter looks primed for a good effort here in his second start off a eight-month layoff. Last out against allowance foes at Del Park the gelding bobbled on the far turn over the good ground while wide and ran out of gas in the stretch in a fifth place finish. The gelding is familiar with the Colonial turf, winning the Old Nelson and Kitten’s Joy in back to back stakes wins back in ’07. He is in good hands with the Nixon barn that is 3 for 9 (with a +ROI) with horses making their second start off a +180 day layoff.

#2 Auction Watch beat third level allowance company last out at Philly off a ten-month layoff for the very capable Sanna Hendricks barn. The gelding earned the top last out speed fig in the effort, his fifth win on grass in seven starts on the surface.

The gelding was a late bloomer, running off three straight in his four-year-old campaign, and after getting outrun in a stake he was put on the shelf and came back as a steeplechase runner, the trainer’s specialty. That did not work out and he came back to win a Pa. bred stake last summer. It is tough to get a read on just how good this guy is, but to back him for the top spot I sure would like to see more than the 5/2 morning line.

Wagering

WIN: #7 to win at 9/2 or better.

EX: 5,7 / 2,5,7,8

TRI: 5,7 / 2,5,7,8 / 2,3,5,7,8,10

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

Saturday’s Horse Play – Belmont Park Race 8

Race-day: 6/27/2009

Race-time: 4:44 pm est.

BetOnline online racebook fans might have to fight the elements on Friday at Belmont Park, but they almost won’t have to fight the elements on Saturday at Belmont.

Saturday should be a sunny day, which is a good thing since the Horse Pick of the Day is on the turf in Race 8 at Belmont Park on Saturday.

Let’s take a look at Race 8 at Belmont Park on Saturday.

Belmont Park – Race 8

Allowance $46,000

For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won a Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming or Starter, or Restricted or Which Have Never Won Two Races

1 mile turf

Big Top – - 6/1 morning line

The Nick Zito trained Big Top actually ran a very good race, his first against winners, when losing by only 2 lengths and finishing fourth. If he improves at all, he could be a nice play at good odds. The fact that he was bought for over 1 million dollars means that someone believes in him.

Get Stormy – - 6/1 morning line

Get Stormy finished second at the 1 mile distance on the turf and then finished 9th at the 1 1/16th mile distance on yielding turf in his last. If the lawn comes up firm then getting 6 to 1 on Get Stormy could be a gift. He won’t have to stay too far off the pace and he has a very good closing kick.

So It Goes – - 7/2 morning line

So It Goes could actually break through with a victory in this race after finishing second in his last two. But it won’t be easy because he’s coming out of the 10 hole and might not be able to make a trip from there. He’s also going to be well off the pace and could run out of real estate in this relatively short race.

Wagering Strategy

I’m going to bet Big Top to win and place. I will put Big Top, So It Goes and Get Stormy into an exacta and trifecta box.

Murray in Saturday action at Wimby

London, Great Britain – British No.1 and the tournament’s third seed, Andy Murray bids to keep British hopes alive at Wimby when he takes on Viktor Troicki in the third round on Saturday. The Scot hopes to be the first Brit to win the Wimbledon title since Fred Perry won it in 1937. All British eyes, even the Queen’s has been on his progress so far, and seeing how solid he has looked in the first two rounds, advancing without too much trouble, he appears to be on track. Elsewhere, Stanislas Wawrinka takes on surprise third round challenger, American Jesse Levine with a spot in the fourth round on the line.

Tennis Betting Line: Stanislas Wawrinka -700 Jesse Levine +400

Match Time: 06:00 A.M. Eastern Time Saturday June 26, 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Stanislas Wawrinka is the tournament’s 19th seed and he advances to the third round over Eduardo Schwank and Martin Vassllo Arguello – two clay courters who have not managed to trouble the Swiss No.2. Being at almost the butt of the top 20 seeds in Wimbledon means Wawrinka has coasted under the radar thus far. Very little focus has been placed on his campaign and frankly, should he have crashed most would have not batted an eyelash.

That said Wawrinka has many skills and much to recommend him. On paper, his next match stacks up rather modestly against him and there is no reason to suggest he will have a tough time of it. Levine has done well to reach this stage of the tourney but he benefited from and easy section of the draw. Wawrinka is his first seed. An opponent he will be hard pressed to overcome. Clearly, this match is on Wawrinka’s racquet. He should win this and book a place in the fourth round easily.

Tennis Free Picks: Wawrinka in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Andrew Murray -6500 Viktor Troicki +1400

Match Time: 06:00 A.M. Eastern Time Saturday June 26, 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Few would contemplate any trouble for Andy Murray in this match. His place in Wimbledon’s second week of action is an almost certainty, so any thoughts of an upset are stubbornly pushed aside. Which neatly brings us to the question: does Troicki have what it takes to orchestrate the upset? In a word, no. He is talented sure, he has skills and all that but for all he possesses, he doesn’t have what it takes to take on not only Murray but also a partisan crowd, polite mind, firmly behind the Scot. At best, he might take a set off Murray but I expect Murray to rise to the occasion and put paid to any untoward notions Troicki might entertain.

Tennis Free Picks: Murray in four sets.

Rachel Alexandra Returns – Mother Goose Stakes

Race-day: 6/27/2009

Race-time: Mother Goose at 5:17 pm est. and Vanity Handicap at 5:30 pm est.

Rachel Alexandra returns in the Grade I Mother Goose at Belmont Park on Saturday. As expected, she’s a huge favorite in the BetOnline online racebook at 1 to 5.

After the Mother Goose is the Grade I Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park. The Vanity appears to be a much tougher race for handicappers.

Let’s take a look at this weekend’s stakes races.

Belmont Park – - Race 9

Grade I Mother Goose

$300,000

For Fillies Three Years Old

Can any horse in this field beat Rachel Alexandra? Maybe. The filly Flashing has gone from the barn of Tom Albertrani to Saeed Bin Suroor. The change could be significant as Suroor is the top trainer in the world. Not only that, but Flashing does have the speed to stick with Rachel Alexandra. Let’s peg her for the upset. Rachel Alexandra is just an excellent filly. She’s going to be tough to beat. A second place finish is almost a given. For third, Malibu Prayer could hang on after winning her last two races by a total of 20 ¼ lengths. She’s out of the Todd Pletcher barn and could be tough to run down.

1. Flashing

2. Rachel Alexandra

3. Malibu Prayer

Hollywood Park – - Race 4

Grade I Vanity Handicap

$300,000

For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward

Zenyatta is simply one of the best horses to ever step onto a racetrack. She’s undefeated and will remain so after the Grade I Vanity. Betting her to win doesn’t make any sense, however, so we’ll put long shot Briecat on the bottom half of the exacta. Briecat should track a very strong pace and then make a move before Zenyatta comes rolling by. For third, Forest Melody has the back class and the legs to stay for a while.

1. Zenyatta

2. Briecat

3. Forest Melody

Hewitt and Roddick continue Wimby Bid on Saturday

London, Great Britain – Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick – two good oldies in the game – hope to advance into the second week of Wimbledon when they contest their third round matches on Saturday. Hewitt takes on German Philipp Petzschner meanwhile Roddick will battle Melzer. BetOnline Sportsbook is taking action on their matches. Here is a look at the tennis betting lines and odds currently available.

Tennis Betting Line: Lleyton Hewitt -1000 Philipp Petzschner +500

Match Time: 06:00 A.M. Eastern Time Saturday June 26, 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Lleyton Hewitt accounts for the tournaments biggest upset – on paper, that is – when he dumped World No.5 Juan Martin Del Potro in straight sets on Thursday. It was an on paper upset, because while Del Potro sports top-five pretensions he is not a grassie, whereas Hewitt is. He was a champ here in 2002.

Next up for the rejuvenated Hewitt is Philipp Petzschner of Germany. Hewitt owns the head-to-head series 1-0, having beaten him earlier this year in Munich. Although they played on clay, Hewitt at least got a look at the German’s game. They played a close three-setter with the Aussie persevering 6-2, 6-7(2), 7-6(8). Most significant about the victory was that Hewitt delivered it on Petzschner’s home turf.

Hewitt enters this match as the huge favourite, priced at -1000. If the Aussie fans that showed up to watch him against Del Potro show up tomorrow and set up a little Aussie cheerleading section for Hewitt, he might have a bit of home edge feel to this match. Either way, he should top Petzschner relatively easily. The big win over Del Potro must be a huge confidence lift for the Aussie who has been working hard all season long to revive his game after taking an injury timeout last season.

Tennis Free Picks: Hewitt in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Jurgen Melzer +600 Andy Roddick -1200

Match Time: 06:00 A.M. Eastern Time Saturday June 26, 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Roddick has an interesting match against Jurgen Melzer tomorrow. The Austrian was a junior Wimbledon champion but for all his successes early in his career he never converted on them at the pro-level. Nevertheless, Melzer is a dark horse and a potential stumbling block for the American. Roddick would do well not to underestimate Melzer. That said, he owns the series between them, which stands at a whopping 8-0. Though they have never played on grass Roddick should enter this match with all the confidence that his mark against the Austrian should give him along with the newfound self-belief that he has a chance to win a Grand Slam title nurtured by coach Larry Stefanki.

Tennis Free Picks: Roddick in four sets

College Football – Heisman Trophy Futures

The college football season is quickly approaching and fans should have already begun to think about the players they feel have the best chance of winning the 2009-2010 Heisman Trophy.

The Heisman Trophy, which goes to the best performing college football player of the year, is often times won by either a running back or a quarterback. This upcoming football season bring three potential quarterback winners of the Heisman in Texas’s Colt McCoy, Florida’s Tim Tebow and Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford.

Let’s take a look at the Heisman Trophy Futures.

Heisman Trophy Futures

1. Colt McCoy, Texas, +275 – - The Texas quarterback gets to play behind an offensive line with tons of experience. Not only that but he has been fantastic the past two years and no doubt is going into his best season. He can potentially improve off of the amazing 173.5 quarterback rating. Great offensive weapons, a BCS winning coach, and a super defense means that McCoy takes home the trophy.

2. Tim Tebow, Florida, +200 – - Tebow won the Heisman in 2007 and probably should have won it last year, but quarterback Sam Bradford got the award. Still, two Heismans in the last 3 years is good enough for Tebow and the Gators. Florida is a +175 favorite to win its second straight BCS Championship in 2009-2010. The only way it does that is if Tebow provides the magic. He’ll be playing behind an inexperienced offensive line, but that shouldn’t hurt his chances.

3. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, +275 – - Bradford won the Heisman Trophy in 2008 and will be looking to do the same in 2009, but winning back to back Heismans is almost impossible to do. Not only that but Bradford’s offensive line won’t be nearly as dominating and Oklahoma was exposed in the BCS Championship last year. I like the Sooners and I like Bradford but at the odds, McCoy is the better wager.

4. Evan Royster, Penn State, +1200 – - One of two things will happen to the Penn State running back. One, because his offensive line is inexperienced, he will be absolutely pummeled early and often and won’t even be in the discussion for the Heisman by mid-season. Two, because his offensive line is inexperienced, Joe Pa and the rest of the Nittany Lions’ coaching staff will lean on him with regularity and go back to Big Ten pounding the ball and sending him into the flat and he’ll have a huge season. I’m betting that number two happens.

5. Jahvid Best, California, +1000 – - The Golden Bear running back carried the ball 20 times for a 9.3 average, 186 yards and scored 2 touchdowns in California’s 24 to 17 victory over the Miami Hurricanes in the Emerald Bowl last season. He plays in the Pac-10 where defenses are virtually non-existent and there’s no doubt that Cal knows their only chance of winning the Pac-10 is to lean heavily on him.

6. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State, +800 – - Yes, he’s flashy, fast, and flat out good, but he plays for a traditional Big Ten team and will have to do his running in the cold. I say running because the jury is still out on Pryor as a passer. He’s got the guts to be a star but his offensive line is inexperienced and the Big Ten…well, the Big Ten just hasn’t produced big time playmakers since Braylon Edwards. He could get lost on this list.

Best Long Shot

Joe McKnight, USC, +3000 - – A great offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback means that the bigger, some say faster, Reggie Bush gets the ball more often in 2009. USC will want to keep their star happy and the running back by committee way that they do things in L.A. looks good but really didn’t produce the needed results in 2008. If Pete Carroll goes with one guy and one guy only in the backfield, it will be McKnight. At 30 to 1, a wager might be a good idea.

Early look at the Indianapolis Colts

The Colts got off to a slow start in 2008, as Peyton Manning took a whole to warm up after missing all of training camp. Manning eventually got himself going – and wound up winning the MVP award as a result. The running game went limp, though, averaging just 3.4 yards per attempt, and it never really corrected itself. That is what made the 12-4 record all the more impressive (although they were just 7-9 ATS), and with nine straight wins to close out the regular season, including victories over New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Tennessee, they should have been poised for a Super Bowl run. It was not to be.

Can things change for the better in 2009?

Let’s take a look at the numbers:

BetOnline Sportsbook Odds
To Win AFC South 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS   +155
Tennessee Titans         +240
Houston Texans           +325
Jacksonville Jaguars    +400 

Tony Dungy has "retired," and this was one of those situations where the outgoing coach named his successor a year ahead of time. In this case it was the assistant head coach, Jim Caldwell, the former head man at Wake Forest. Pension-related issues led to the "retirement" of both offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Howard Mudd, and though each will continue in the capacity of "consultant," Caldwell was not specified exactly what they would be doing. That means you’ll have coordinators and consultants, and confusion, which could go along with it.

Manning did not start things off on a positive note, because he was a little frustrated that people in the organization weren’t being straight with him about what was going on. Manning is like a coach on the field, and he probably knows the offense better than anyone, so in the end he calls his own shots. They have had a meeting to clear the air, but if Manning becomes unhappy with Caldwell, there are going to be problems.

One of the problems that has been addressed is that running game, which should not have been so unproductive as long as Joseph Addai was available, but now will get some fresh blood in the person of Donald Brown, the All-American from U-Conn who rushed for over 2000 yards last season. He’ll make up for the departure of Dominic Rhodes, and the absence of Marvin Harrison from the receiving corps (he was released) will have some effect (he caught 60 passes), but it won’t be tragic, because Reggie Wayne (82 catches for 1145 yards) is the new go-to guy, Anthony Gonzalez is developing into a possession receiver, and Dallas Clark is one of the more productive tight ends in the game.

The Colts wanted to get bigger on the defensive line, as the run-stuffing capabilities of this defense have been in question over the last few seasons. That’s why they drafted USC’s Fili Moala on the second round and took Michigan’s Terrence Taylor two rounds later. If those guys work out, it will be a great complement to the pass rushing studs the Colts have on the outside, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney, who combined for 22 sacks last season.

What we know about Bob Sanders is that he is one of the most respected defensive players in the NFL, and is somebody who is of major importance in stopping the run. Indianapolis may not need his help as much in that area, but it is still critical that he stay healthy for most of the year. In 2007 the Colts went through the whole regular season allowing more than 24 points just once. Last year they did it five times.

That will have to improve. Brown will have to be a useful addition to the running attack. Depth must be found at wide receiver. If those things don’t happen, the Colts will be hard pressed to regain the division title, because any of the other AFC South teams could conceivably win the crown. In the BetOnline NFL futures betting props, the Colts are at 10 wins. I am going to lean to the "over" in that prop, laying -130.

Minnesota Madness – Favre Will Not Help The Vikings

It’s a misleading title to a certain extent. Favre is an instant upgrade over Tavaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels and John David Booty, especially given the production of Adrian Peterson and the talent of Bernard Berrian. The Minnesota Vikings averaged just 184.8 passing yards riding the Gus Bus last year, but were still able to sneak in to the playoffs. With one of the best rushing games in the league, Minnesota’s passing game needs to do very little.

Yet it’s not the offense, or Brett Favre’s acquisition, that has me concerned for the betting welfare of the Minnesota faithful. It’s the defense.

The two Williams’ face a possible four-game suspension due to drug allegations, which means that the league’s best rush defense takes a serious hit right off the bat. The Vikings averaged just 76.9 rushing yards against during the 2008 campaign. That’s better than Pittsburgh and Baltimore, people.

However, that stat is still slightly misleading. The Vikings’ secondary has been a mess for the past three seasons, and last year they were 18th in the NFL with 215.6 yards passing allowed. This all summed up to 20.8 points against per game (ranked 13th in the league). Teams elected to move the ball between the twenties through the air when playing Minnesota. With the Williams’ stuffing the middle, it was virtually impossible to score on them using the run.

Luckily, the Vikings have a favorable schedule. They face Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco and Green Bay in the first four weeks of the season, meaning that they can realistically go 3-1 SU to start the season. Their defense will have to produce without their anchors in the trenches, but that might not be an issue with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor forming one of the most dangerous tandems in the backfield.

My point is that the Vikings can get off to a hot start. They can do that without Brett Favre. They can do this while grooming John David Booty, which is whom they should be focusing on. What they can’t do is win a championship with that secondary. Like New Orleans, the Minnesota Vikings are being held back by their defensive ineptitudes. They’re a team that can be dissected through the air with ease, and they now have their two best defensive players in the bad books of Roger Goddell.

It’s a difficult choice for any team – do you bust the bank now to try and win this year, or prepare to be a championship caliber team in the very near future? With a talent like Booty in the ranks, and all the other pieces in place offensively, the Vikings are two safeties and one cornerback away from being a championship team. Jeopardizing the short-term future for immediate hype is a gamble nobody should take. Especially if it’s with a flaky, 18 year veteran whose best years are behind him.

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