Catella Swedish Open – Swedes push for a spot in semis

Bastad, Sweden – Day five of the Catella Swedish Open will see second seed and Sweden’s own Robin Soderling bid for a spot in the semis against clay-court guru Nicolas Almagro of Spain. Elsewhere, Jurgen Melzer of Austria will battle Sweden’s Andreas Vinciguerra. So let us get started. Here is a look at the tennis betting action currently available.

Tennis Betting Line: Nicolas Almagro +225 Robin Soderling -350

Match Time: 05:00 A.M. Eastern Time Friday July 17 2009

Head-to-Head Analysis: It will be the second career meeting between No. 12 Robin Soderling and No. 41 Nicolas Almagro. They first crossed paths at the Wimbledon Championships R32; Soderling beat Almagro in straight sets 7-6(7), 6-4, 6-4.

Tennis Betting Verdict: Robin Soderling enters this match as the firm favourite, listed at BetOnline Sportsbook at -350 favourite odds. Given how well he has been playing over the last two months and that he beat Rafael Nadal en route to a runner-up finish at the French Open (l. to Federer) it is hardly surprising that he should be so favoured. Prior to the French Open, Soderling was not typically cast as a favourite in most matches – he was too inconsistent and on the verge of imploding at any moment. This is the new-Soderling – ranked in the top 20 and boasting a 21-12 mark.

Nicolas Almagro has already had occasion to acquaint himself with the new and improved Soderling at Wimby. But that is a grass court tournament. Bastad is a clay event – a surface that is his speciality. One has to believe that Almagro has a better shot at Soderling on clay.

Almagro is 17-12 on the season with one title – Acapulco. He was once a runner-up in Bastad (2007) as well , so if there were a player in the bottom half of the draw that would have a chance to upset Soderling it would be Almagro. Easier said than done. Soderling will have the crowd fully behind him. Yet, methinks Almagro is the value play at +225.

Tennis Betting Free Picks: Almagro in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Andreas Vinciguerra +200 Jurgen Melzer -300

Match Time: 05:00 A.M. Eastern Time Friday July 17 2009

Head-to-Head Analysis: This is the first-ever meeting between No.460 Andreas Vinciguerra and No.28 Jurgen Melzer.

Tennis Betting Verdict: Sweden’s Vinciguerra is enjoying a Cinderella run in Bastad. He entered the tournament on a wild card and he has so far made full use of the free pass. He topped sixth seed Florent Serra in the opening round and continued his winning ways over veteran clay courter Guillermo Canas. Can Vinciguerra go one better and reach the semis. If the bookies odds were an indication, he is the long bet for a berth in the semis at +200. Austrian Jurgen Melzer at -300 is the favourite to advance. Yet, he is not the sure play. Melzer has struggled this season and arrived in Bastad 16-18. He opened his tournament in the second round because of receiving a first round bye. He beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver to reach the quarters.

Indeed, on paper, Melzer appears to be the better play but Vinciguerra who is reviving his game after being sidelined with a knee injury since 2006 is the feel good story of the tournament. ‘Tis the kind of intangible that makes headlines and makes anything possible.

Tennis Betting Free Picks: Vinciguerra in three sets

NFL Future Betting – Most Regular Season Rushing Yards

WHICH RUNNING BACK WILL TRAVEL THE FARTHEST?

Here is the entire list, with my comments, and last year’s yardage total in parentheses:

BetOnline Sportsbook Odds
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards

ADRIAN PETERSON +225 (1760)
— He is once again the guy the Vikings will count on to get it done, with or without Brett Favre. You may want to count on him too, because he is quite simply the best in the business. He may be running behind a rookie right tackle, though.

MICHAEL TURNER +450 (1699)
— Last year we thought he had an excellent chance, and he almost went all the way. This year could be even better.

DEANGELO WILLIAMS +800 (1515)
— Reaching last year’s total could be tough. This is more of a two-headed situation (with Jonathan Stewart), and that takes carries away from a guy.

CLINTON PORTIS +1200 (1487)
— Portis got tired in the second half of last season. Expect him to get more relief early on from Ladell Betts, which won’t help him in this derby.

STEVE SLATON +1400 (1282)
— He is definitely the Texans’ go-to guy, and you have to know that coach Gary Kubiak comes from the Denver culture, where he feels he has to run the ball. Slaton had more yardage than any other rookie last year. He can get into the 1600-yard range, which gives him a chance that may make it worth playing at this price.

LADAINIAN TOMLINSON +1400 (1110)
— Some people think he is poised for a big comeback year. I don’t doubt that he can improve on last year’s figure, but he’s got a lot of mileage on him, and last year was not a good sign as he was coming off an injury.

STEVEN JACKSON +1600 (1042)
— The Rams are very committed to building their new offense around Jackson, and he has the ability to pull it off, but will THEY be good enough? Remember also that Jackson, at his best, distributes his production pretty well between rushing and receiving.

CHRIS JOHNSON +1600 (1228)
— A lot of people look at Tennessee’s backfield as more of a two-headed monster, but I don’t think they’d have any problem putting LenDale White into a more subordinate and/or short yardage role, and letting Johnson make huge plays more often. As a 16/1 shot, he may be well worth a pop, because he is one of the fee guys on this list who can take it coast-to-coast from anywhere. Possible snag – he may see some time at wide receiver.

RYAN GRANT +2000 (1203)
— Grant showed in the latter stages of 2008 that his 2007 heroics were no fluke. However, I wonder whether the Packers will just be flooding the air with football too much to accommodate him in any quest for the rushing lead.

FRANK GORE +2000 (1036)
— Gore has been in the position before where he has challenged for the league rushing lead. He also has a coach who is very committed to running the football. That’s not a bad combination for a guy who still has the ability, and will go far if he can stay healthy. Put him down on your list of longshot possibilities.

BRANDON JACOBS +2000 (1089)
— What we like is that the Giants don’t have the same kind of faith in backup Ahmad Bradshaw as they did in Derrick Ward. That means Jacobs, who is big and strong and averaged five yards a carry last season, will get the ball more from a coach and offensive coordinator who insist on running the ball. That puts him in our top five and also makes him a value play at 20/1.

MAURICE JONES-DREW +2000 (824)
— Here is the thinking most people have about him: he doesn’t have to share the ball with Fred Taylor any more, and he will be the absolute best option for the Jags. I don’t doubt that, but I don’t know that he can handle the full load.

MATT FORTE +2500 (1238)
— Forte’s value is unquestioned. However, I think that value manifests itself in ways that are separate from pure rushing yards; his role as receiver might even be stepped up with Jay Butler taking snaps.

KNOWSHON MORENO +3000 (0 – rookie)
— Denver wants to run, without question. In fact, with their quarterback situation, they will have to. Moreno will be the beneficiary, but they’ll still have him sharing the rock with others.

BRIAN WESTBROOK +3000 (936)
— This year I think the Eagles will firmly commit themselves to having Westbrook share carries with second-round draft choice LeSean McCoy. That will undoubtedly cut into his yardage total.

RONNIE BROWN +3500 (916)
— Brown is a very effective back, and will still find himself involved in the Wildcat formations that worked so well last year, but as long as Ricky Williams is healthy and can play, the Dolphins are going to keep Brown as fresh as they possibly can.

MARION BARBER +3500 (885)
— I don’t see Barber being a contender here, especially since Felix Jones is coming back from injury.

LARRY JOHNSON +4000 (874)
— One supposes that Todd Haley, the new coach, wants to throw the ball a lot in Kansas City, but this aerial attack will be more limited than the one he worked with in Arizona, particularly without Tony Gonzalez. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Johnson up near the rushing lead, provided he could stay healthy. Of course, that is a big question about him.

THOMAS JONES +4500 (1312)
— You may be asking why the guy who led the AFC in rushing last year is at such long odds. Maybe he shouldn’t be, but I saw 2008 as his career season, and don’t expect him to reach those heights again, especially if Mark Sanchez starts at QB for the Jets, as defenses will be stacking up against the run.

JULIUS JONES +5000 (698)
— The more interesting prop might be to see how Julius does against his brother. This guy is not league-leading material.

MARSHAWN LYNCH +5000 (1036)
— He’s got a suspension to worry about, and the Bills have discovered that there’s a guy named Fred Jackson who can share the load a little.

WILLIE PARKER +4500 (791)
— Wearing out Parker is not going to be a winning formula. I would expect that Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore get their share of touches, and then some.

FRED TAYLOR +5000 (824)
— I’m sure Taylor will be just fine as a role player for the Pats, maybe even a primary running back, but I doubt he’ll elevate himself to workhorse status.

DERRICK WARD +5000 (1025)
— Ward ran for over 1000 yards essentially as Brandon Jacobs’ relief guy last year. He’s got lots of ability, although his offensive line won’t be as good in Tampa Bay. The Bucs would like for him to do for them what Michael Turner did for Atlanta. With that possibility, he may be worth a small play at this number.

JOSEPH ADDAI +6000 (544)
— The Colts drafted Donald Brown to push him. We’re not convinced he’s capable of getting there.

CHRIS WELLS +7000 (0 – rookie)
— I have a hunch about Wells. It’s because it is not so unusual for a rookie running back to come into the league and have a big year, and Ken Whisenhunt, who is doing the offensive play-calling now in Arizona, is bound to run more. With their receiving corps, defenses wouldn’t dare overload against the run. This guy is strong and fast (though he needs to stay healthy). I’d place a play on him.

CEDRIC BENSON +8000 (747)
— Benson is the go-to back for the Bengals, but I’m not sure there’s much else I can say. Guys like Jonathan Stewart, who aren’t even on this list, may outrush him.

Baltimore Ravens Retain Suggs For $63 Million

The Baltimore Ravens betting faithful can take a sight of relief. Their linebacking corps will be anchored by one of the best in the business for the next six-years. Terrell Suggs, who recorded 68 tackles, 8 sacks and 2 picks last season has signed on for a $63 million contract over the next six years to stay in the purple and black attack.

The good news for Suggs is that the contract is front-loaded, banking him $33.1 million in signing bonuses and salary for the next two seasons. As a tenth overall pick in 2003, Suggs has played his entire career as a Baltimore Raven, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2003, and being honored in the Pro Bowl three times, including last season. Financial security is his. Now it’s time to focus on a championship ring.

Baltimore has been circulated by offensive question marks throughout the last few years, but all those came to a screeching halt with the emergence of Joe Flacco and running-back Le’Ron McClain and the addition of former Buffalo Bill, Willis McGahee. The Ravens ranked eleventh in the league with 24.1 points per game, and ranked in the top-5 for rushing with 148.5 yards gained on the ground. With his only reliable receiving asset as Derrick Mason (now retired), Flacco steadied the passing game to the tune of 175.5 passing yards per game.

But as is always the story in Baltimore, the team is built on defense. That defense begins and ends with two men – Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs. The former player in that duo, Lewis, is getting on in years and game tape from last season proved that he lost a considerable step in his speed, and has missed a fair number of tackles he would’ve surely made had he been younger. Finding an heir apparent to Lewis was always a sub-priority for the Ravens, and they know who that man is now for sure. His name is Terrell Suggs.

The Ravens were the second-best overall defense in the league last year, allowing just 261.1 total yards against. They were third in points allowed (15.3 points per game) and rushing yards given (81.4 per game) and held passing offenses to just 179.7 passing yards per game. The only defense that was consistently better than Baltimore was their division rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Ravens are a reasonable longshot to win the AFC Championship at +1000. The main problem for this team is that their offense has no viable number-one receiver. It’s safe to say, however, that their defense will keep them competitive. The main problem for them is getting past the Steelers, who the Ravens lost to three times last season, including in the AFC Championship last year. This year they will also have to contend with the New England Patriots.

While the immediate question mark for the Ravens is about their receiving corps the defense is in good hands with Suggs leading the new generation of the purple and black attack. When you’re talking about a guy who can lead, make his tackles, play deep cover-2 and sack a quarterback like a pile of spuds, then $33.1 million over the next two years is a bargain…just like the Ravens in our AFC Championship odds.

NFL Futures – NFC South is a TIGHT Race

The worst-to-first trend was broken in the NFC South last season after the Carolina Panthers won the division. Does that mean the trend is gone for good, or should NFL betting fans look to the New Orleans Saints as the next worst-to-first rebound?

Before the Panthers’ division title last season the NFC South winner had gone from worst to first every year since the division was created. The football trend almost continued, though, as the Falcons finished right behind the 12-4 Panthers at 11-5. For anyone that forgets, a year earlier the Falcons finished last in the division. According to the latest NFL odds, though, the trend may return, as the Saints are the favorite to win the division at +190 despite finishing last in the South last season.

The Saints definitely have the offense to win the division behind quarterback Drew Brees, but the problem is their defense. Despite Brees nearly toppling Dan Marino’s single-season passing record last season the Saints went 8-8 and posted the worst record in the division. New Orleans hopes to have addressed those defensive liabilities by bringing in Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator. Williams definitely has the credentials to turn things around. As defensive coordinator in Washington from 2004-2007 Williams successfully implemented his aggressive attacking defense, which led to some great defensive performances in D.C. If Williams can reshape the Saints’ defense and keep their opponents from matching their offense stride for stride the Saints could march their way back to the top of the division again.

The Saints aren’t going to have an easy road to the division title, though. Standing in their way are Carolina and Atlanta. The Falcons are actually right behind the Saints on the NFL betting odds at +220, while the Panthers check in at +230. No one expected anything from Atlanta last season, but quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner re-energized the offense and lifted them into the postseason as a Wild Card. Ryan’s been given another weapon in the form of tight end Tony Gonzalez, which could open up the passing game even more and take some of the load off Turner. Unless Ryan suffers a sophomore slump the Falcons should fight for the division crown again.

In Carolina the biggest concern in the offseason was defensive superstar Julius Peppers. He wanted out, but the Panthers didn’t want to let him go. So far the Panthers have got their wish after signing him to a one-year extension. How it plays out in the long run, though, is anyone’s guess. There’s no doubt the Panthers are a better team with Peppers chasing down quarterbacks. On offense the Panthers will hope for another year out of Jake Delhomme. He bounced back from an injured-riddled 2007 last season, but a poor performance in the postseason has some worried. At least the running game is exceptionally strong. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart form a lethal combo, and third-stringer Mike Goodson has also been turning heads. A repeat division title is definitely possible in Carolina this season.

As for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they’re the underdogs at +450 to win the NFC South this season. The Bucs won nine games last year, but aren’t getting much love from oddsmakers or bettors heading into the season.

NFL Inside Look – The Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings began the season losing three of their first four games, then started to pick up steam in the NFC North. They won seven of their last nine games, going 4-2 in the division, and defeated three playoff teams. They won the division title, but lost in the playoffs to Philadelphia, opening up more questions about the quarterback position.

Will those questions get an answer before the season opener?

Let’s take a look at the numbers:

BetOnline Sportsbook Odds

To Win NFC North

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +160

Chicago Bears +180

Green Bay Packers +200

Detroit Lions +1400

To Win Super Bowl: +1800

To Win NFC title: +800

To Reach Conference title game: +400

Over 9 wins -140

Under 9 wins +110

There is no NFL team that, as things stand prior to training camp, has as many critical questions surrounding it as the Minnesota Vikings. Let’s get to the most important one first.

Gus Frerotte had the quarterback job for most of the season, and his numbers (12 TD’s, 15 INT’s) were not going to get the Vikings anywhere. Tarvaris Jackson, who was drafted in the second round in 2006, finished the season rather strongly, completing 64% of his passes with eight touchdowns and only on interception in the last four games. Jackson’s shortcomings were exposed in the playoff game with the Eagles, however, as he was just 15-for-35 with an interception and a fumble. He is not the answer.

In the off-season, the Vikings released Frerotte and made a deal with Houston to acquire Sage Rosenfels, a quarterback who can rack up some numbers but is also interception-prone. Still, there was little doubt that going into training camp, it was going to be Rosenfels’ job to lose, else why would they have traded for him?

Then the availability of Brett Favre became an issue. Favre was granted his release by the New York Jets, with the assumption that he was going to retire. He had wanted to go to Minnesota last year, but the Packers were having none of it. This time around, the door was, and is, open. Brad Childress wants to sign Favre, which doesn’t show faith in his other quarterbacks but gives every indication of the sense of insecurity he has about his own job.

Favre, by the way, tossed 22 interceptions last year, which means he’s been picked off 84 times in the last four seasons. As of today, he has not said yes to Minnesota, which doesn’t mean anything as far as most of the Twin Cities press is concerned. Most of them consider it a fait accompli.

The QB, whoever it is, will be relieved by a great running game. Adrian Peterson maybe the best in the business, as evidenced by his 1760 yards last season. Chester Taylor adds plenty of backup- as well. The offensive line lost Matt Birk, but this is a tremendous group, and the Vikings are hoping that Phil Loadbolt, the second-round pick out of Oklahoma, can take over at right tackle.

The receivers aren’t the scariest, but they are better than a lot of people give them credit for. Bernard Berrian averaged 20 yards a reception last season (964 yards total) and Bobby Wade (53 catches) is a pretty good possession receiver. Percy Harvin is the speed-burner drafted in the first round. He can make plays, though he has a heel injury that is going to be long-lasting. Visanthe Shiancoe (42 receptions last season) has a chance to become an outstanding tight end.

It looks like the defensive tackles, Kevin and Pat Williams, are going to be able to play until a final decision is handed down from the courts regarding their suspension for taking a banned substance. They were suspended for four games, but it was blocked by a Hennepin County judge who said nothing can happen until the case reaches a final resolution. Whether all of this happens before the season opener is rather uncertain. The Vikings’ first four games are against Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco and Green Bay.

At normal strength, Minnesota is one of the league’s best at snuffing out the run, allowing just 3.3 yards a carry. They sacked the opposing quarterback 45 times as well, and new acquisition Jared Allen had 14.5 of those sacks. The secondary is still the main area of concern on this defense, and Darren Sharper shipped off to New Orleans as a free agent.

It is indeed hard to say what is going to happen with Favre, but my guess is that there will be more upside, although his mistakes will still cost this team games. Because they can control the line of scrimmage, on both offense and defense, this looms as the best team in the division, even as the Bears have acquired Jay Cutler to play quarterback. I’ll go with the Vikes to win the division (at +160 in the BetOnline odds) and will lean to the over on the total wins (-140 at BetOnline), but I would not look for them to reach the conference title game.

NFL Insider – Vikings Should Move on from Favre

I hate writing about this story but it needs to be said: you get to holdout as an accomplished veteran and make last minute decisions once in your career. That’s it. Nobody really faulted hockey players Mats Sundin or Teemu Selanne for making last-minute decisions to come back mid-season in the NHL wagering for their respective clubs. But you only get to burn that card a single time. Brett Favre had his flip-flopping delayed decision process last summer. This year is trying to pull that crap again, and the Minnesota Vikings are the ones stuck holding the bag.

Favre has set a deadline of July 30th before he decides if he will suit up in the purple for the Minnesota Vikings. Brad Childress is apparently “ok” with that. Really? He realizes that pre-season starts August 14th right? If Favre signs, and right now it’s 50-50 odds that he will, Favre would have just over a month before Minnesota has to suit up for Week 1 of the playoffs. How exactly is Childress alright with this? More importantly, at what point do NFL teams say, “Screw you, we’re not waiting on you. We’re moving forward without you,”?

To make the pill slightly easier for Minnesota to swallow, the Vikings have three soft matchups to start the season. The Vikings play Cleveland, Detroit and San Francisco to open the season and all those are winnable games with, or without, Favre. The problem for Minnesota if they sign Brett Favre is that they face the upstart Green Bay Packers in Week 4. Just in case you’ve forgotten, Favre was the mainstay in Green Bay, quarterbacking the team to a win at Super Bowl XXXI in his 15 year tenure as a Packer. That game will not be an easy won for Minnesota to win, especially if Favre is emotionally wrought by playing his former team.

After Week 4, the Vikings have a gimme against the Rams on the road before having to suit up against the Ravens and Steelers in back-to-back weeks. In Week 8, they play in Lambeau field against the Packers again. That means the Vikings have a very good chance of going 4-4 SU in their first eight games before they get a bye week in Week 9. After that, it’s a crapshoot, but the Vikings are a playoff caliber run defense and rushing attack that needs a passing attack sometime soon.

The quarterback position is a toss-up between Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson right now, with John David Booty probably being the best option on the table. Still, Booty is in just his second NFL season and is not ready to start taking snaps. The problem for all three of these guys is that all of them know that if Brett signs, they’re going to be sitting on the bench. That shouldn’t be a problem for Rosenfels, but it puts Booty even further from the starting spot, and decimates Tavaris Jackson’s career.

That’s what puzzles me about Minnesota’s willingness to wait for Brett Favre. In one scenario they don’t get Brett Favre, and Tavaris Jackson goes back to losing football games while the crowd cheers and chants for Brett Favre in his place. Or they sign Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson’s confidence is completely shattered. Again, all this inadvertently affects Booty’s mindset, although a year alongside Favre may give Booty some lessons learned by proxy.

In any case, the Vikings still sit as the favorites to win the NFC North at +160 and are +750 to win the NFC Championship. Is Favre the missing piece? Maybe. Bernard Berrian went from a 70+ reception guy to a guy who didn’t even get 50 receptions last year. He maintained his touchdown production, and yardage, but relied more on long bombs. If Favre is in town, Berrian is the only reliable passing asset he will have. That’s a far cry from the steady receiving corps he’s had in both Green Bay and New York.

Favre’s stall tactics might be in his best interest, but it’s destroying the quarterback depth’s morale in Minnesota. And for that reason, Brad Childress has to do what’s right for his team and move on from this absurd waiting game. If he wins a Super Bowl with Brett Favre, then he’ll be a savior and a genius. But the chances of that are slim, as are the chances of him actually landing the man who will turn 40 in October. If Favre chooses to walk, he’ll have the awkward task of turning to Sage, John David and Tavaris and be like, “well I guess I’m stuck with you idiots”. A coach’s job is to motivate and mentor, not decimate egos and confidence by waiting on legends who should have retired two years ago.

Cassel Signs Long-Term with KC – Chiefs Still Suck

Cassel Signs Long-Term with KC; Chiefs Still Suck

It’s a good thing that Matt Cassel signed a long-term deal in Kansas City, because it’s going to take a few years before this team is making the impact that GM Scott Pioli would like. The former New England Patriots stand-in has signed a whopping $63 million contract over six-years, with $28 million in guarantees, and over $40 million going to the quarterback in the first three-years. That’s a ton of cheese to throw at a guy who had one good season with the best coach in the game at his side.

Cassel threw for 3,693 yards last season, amassing 21 touchdowns and throwing just 11 picks as the Patriots narrowly missed the playoffs. With a quarterback rating of 89.4, Cassel was amongst the leagues best quarterbacks, and became one of the most sought after commodities when NFL free-agency began in the Spring. The main reason being that the first-year starter averaged 223.1 passing yards per game with the Patriots, ranking the Pats as the twelfth best passing offence in the game.

Cassel has a long way to go to get the Kansas City Chiefs in to the top-half of that stat bracket, especially given that the Chiefs were the 20th ranked passing game with just 195.6 passing yards per game. The Chiefs averaged 25.9 points per game as well.

My main issue with Cassel is that he was a product of the vaunted New England Patriots, whose system has benefited guys like Drew Bledsoe and Tom Brady. Bill Belichik had perhaps his best, and most challenging test as head coach last season when Brady went down to injury thanks to Bernard Pollards, now Cassel’s teammate. Can Cassel recreate the magic without Uncle Bill and Randy Moss? I highly doubt it. At times it’s easy to remember how incredible his season was last year, but it’s not too hard to forget that Cassel has been a career backup throughout college and the pros. The last time he started a game before last season was in high-school.

Larry Johnson is a crucial piece of the puzzle. At $5.65 million against the cap next season, Johnson must have a bounce back year for the Chiefs to show any semblance of hope in the NFL betting sphere. The Chiefs stand as +3300 underdogs to win the AFC overall, and are a laughable +800 to make any noise in the joke that is becoming the AFC West. Securing Cassel is the first part of the backfield, but finding an heir apparent to Johnson (no offense, Kolby Smith) is priority one.

At a time the Chiefs were stacked at running back, boasting both Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes. But relying on their running game too often wore down both talented backs, and killed their longevity as competitors in the Super Bowl. Behind the likes of a concussion-prone Trent Green, Tyler Thigpen and Damon Huard, the Chiefs fell deeper and deeper in to obscurity as their betting faithful struggled to stay afloat. The Chiefs were an abysmal 2-14 SU last season, finishing with a decent 8-8 ATS record.

Now with Cassel, the Chiefs have hopes of grooming another tailback for the future. They just have to find him first. Larry Johnson has a lot of miles on his legs, but he obviously still has some punch. With Cassel supposedly taking the focus off the once one-dimensional running attack of KC, LJ can now hope to rebuild a career that was so promising in 2005. Time is running out for Johnson. It’s just beginning for Cassel.

Signing Cassel long-term goes a long way in pointing the Chiefs down the right path. But Cassel’s only weapon is Dwayne Bowe, who caught 86 receptions for 1,022 yards and seven touchdowns. His best weapon and a Chiefs mainstay for so many years, Tony Gonzalez, is now the gleeful receiving choice of Matt Ryan in Atlanta. After Bowe, there is more than a 50-catch drop-off to the third ranked Chiefs receiver. The Chiefs have hopes that reliable Bobby Engram can be – uh – reliable, but Engram’s always shined as a number-three guy.

The Chiefs made it clear they were rebuilding the defense first, adding Tyson Jackson with the third overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Jackson will fill in next to Glenn Dorsey, and both players will comprise an interior defense composed of all LSU Tigers.

So the point is simple. Don’t get too excited about Cassel and the Chiefs this season. It will take some time before the long term questions are answered at receiver, running-back and offensive line for the Chiefs. For now, they only thing I want to know is simply this: of the $28 million guaranteed to Cassel, how much of it is he spending on a gift for strong-safety Bernard Pollard?

Manchester City making big moves in Premier League

The 2009~10 English Premier League season kicks off on August 15th with all the fanfare and drama it usually brings to football fans worldwide. However, for some ardent soccer fans it feels like a long haul before then and surviving the long summer months is going to be a tad trying. Well. Don’t I have good news for you impatient lot because plenty of drama is happening right now in the Premier League, and most importantly, already you can bank on it in the soccer betting markets.

The drama I speak of isn’t on the pitch but around boardroom tables and on players mobile phones. Contracts passed back and forth, huge signings and the incessant ring, ring, ring of mobile phones mark the significant comings and goings in the English Premier League this summer that will surely affect the upcoming season.

Not since Abramovich and his Ruble arrived have we seen in the Premier League the kind of money that is currently making the rounds this summer. Ironically, the oil dipped Sheikhs (members of the Abu Dhabi royal family), who made Manchester City the richest football club in the league, are taking a direct cue from Abramovich’s takeover of Chelsea and snapping up the best talent money can buy, even from right under Abramovich’s nose.

The astounding riches on offer so far has bought them Roque Santa Cruz, Gareth Barry and most recently, Carlos Tevez from Manchester United. They are rumoured to be courting Emmanuel Adebayor from Arsenal. As well as John Terry from Chelsea. From Continental Europe they are hoping to lure Samuel Eto’o from Barcelona. Manager Mark Hughes is lapping up all these luxuries greedily and he recently admitted more signings and offers were possible.

How all these comings and goings are significant, besides being just interesting news, is in the affect they have on the soccer betting market. Movements in the soccer betting market are highly correlated to such significant player transfers. Therefore, if you like a spot of pre-market speculation, then get in on prices listed during the off-season and way before off-season player transfers show their affect.

For example, Manchester City is set to open their season at Blackburn on August 15th. Currently, BetOnline Sportsbook has a pre-season offering that has City at +135 odds to Rovers at +180. City are on offer at a marginally lower price than Blackburn to win the match, even if it is on the away, but you have to believe that with the recent signing of Tevez and other possible noteworthy signings, City’s odds will only shorten. So getting in on this price might be a good move.

Manchester City who finished tenth in the league last season has huge ambitions for the upcoming season, namely to become one of the biggest clubs in the world and to deliver the first league title since 1968. Their acquisition of Carlos Tevez from cross-city rivals Manchester United adds another blow to the Red Devils who are reeling from the recent loss of Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid. Fergusson has to be worried that he might lose more players from his locker room. For that matter, Abramovich might want to keep an eye on his blues locker room as well.

Verdasco begin Catella Swedish Open Bid

Bastad, Sweden – The Bastad second round starts on Wednesday and top seed Fernando Verdasco is  set to start his campaign after receiving a bye in the first round. Joining the popular Spaniard in the second round is Juan Monaco of Argentina who advanced past compatriot and doubles partner Maximo Gonzalez in a three set marathon 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-1 on Tuesday.

Here is a look at day 3 tennis betting action at the Catella Swedish Open, complete with BetOnline tennis betting lines and odds.

Tennis Betting Line:  Fernando Verdasco -900        Daniel Koellerer     +450  
Match Time: 05:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday July 16 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Austrian Daniel Koellerer set up a clash with top seed Fernando Verdasco after rallying from a one set deficit to defeat Belgian Steve Darcis. It is the first career meeting between the pair. Verdasco is an impressive 31-13 on the season, which includes reaching the quarters or better in 8 of 12 tournaments this season. Last year, Verdasco was a semi-finalist in Bastad (l. to Berdych). Compared to Verdasco, No.81 Koellerer is a lightweight. He takes a 6-10 mark into the second round. He should not give Verdasco any trouble.

Tennis Free Picks: Verdasco in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Juan Monaco vs. Victor Crivoi
Match Time: 05:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday July 16 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Do not be deceived by Juan Monaco’s low ranking, currently at No.61. The Argentine is much better than his ranking would suggest. He ranked as high as No.14 (2008) but slipped in the rankings when he suffered a foot injury in the early months of last season. He has returned to the ATP tour this year and has made some noise, namely reaching the R16 in Monte Carlo and Madrid and the quarters in Rome. He is 21-16 on the season. Significantly, he is a clay court specialist. This is the first career meeting between Monaco and Romanian Victor Crivoi who ranks No. 85 in the world and takes a 4-8 mark on the season into the second round at Bastad. Monaco is the value play.

Tennis Free Picks : Monaco in straight sets

Internazionali Femminili Di Palermo Second Round Picks

Palermo, Italy – Defending champion Sara Errani is in action at Palermo on Thursday along with second seed Patty Schnyder, qualifier Arantxa Rus and Anna-Lena Groenefeld to name a few. A spot in the Palermo quarterfinals is on the line. Here is a look at the tennis betting action currently available at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Tennis Betting Line: Yaroslava Shvedova  -250          Alberta Brianti     +185       
Match Time: 10:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday July 16 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Russian Yaroslava Shvedova ranks No. 65 in the world and takes an 18-12 mark into the second round along with a -250 price tag. Shvedova is favoured in the market over Italy’s own Alberta Brianti. Brianti at 29-years-old is a seasoned player. She ranks No. 107 in the world and takes a 28-15 mark into this match. There is value in Shvedova and for the most part she should win; don’t be surprised if the Italian puts forward an inspired performance and upsets the Russian.

Tennis Free Picks: Shvedova in three sets

Tennis Betting Line: Sara Errani  -225        Patricia Mayr     +175       
Match Time: 10:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday July 16 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Defending champion Sara Errani is going for back-to-back titles in Palermo. Clay is her favourite surface and she will have full on crowd support.  She is the bookies favourite. However, she is having a bum season this year (13-18) and appears to be low on confidence. While I don’t expect she will successfully defend her title she should go past No. 72 Patricia Mayr into the quarters.

Tennis Free Picks: Errani in three sets

Tennis Betting Line: Anna Lena Groenefeld  -300        Arantxa Rus     +200       
Match Time: 10:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday July 16 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: The teenager from Netherlands, Arantxa Rus is a player to watch in the future. The 18-year-old currently ranks No.112 in the world but she has a chance to improve her ranking with a good result in Palermo. She had to qualify for the tournament. She beat wild card Anna Floris in the first round. She takes on No.54  Anna-Lena Groenefeld  of Germany, who dumped eighth seed Gisela Dulko in her opening match, in the second round. Groenefeld (24) is 15-16 on the season. I like the underdog in this match.

Tennis Free Picks: Rus in three sets

Tennis Betting Line: Nuria Llagostera Vives +300        Patty Schnyder     -500
Match Time: 10:00 A.M. Eastern Time Thursday July 16 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: Second seed and world No.19 Patty Schnyder is a seasoned veteran on the tour and at 30-years- old she is still going strong. Impressive that she ranks in the top 20 and can hang with all the young up-and-comers. She is 15-13 on the season and a consistent performer. She takes on Spaniard Nuria Llagostera Vives (29) who ranks No.104. She is the sure play.

Tennis Free Picks: Schnyder in straight sets

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