BCS Bowl Breakdown – Your Best Bets

BCS Bowl Breakdown

Best Bet: Oregon -4 over Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

The venerable Tim Brown won my dad like a grand in the late 1980’s when they ran fantasy football leagues in smoke filled rooms in sports bars. He was a hell of a football player, and he knows how to handicap football. I agree with him on his Rose Bowl pick.

There’s just no way that the Ohio State Buckeyes get anywhere close to the Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl. I just don’t see it happening. The Buckeyes’ D is good, but Oregon’s offense is great and Buckeye QB Terrelle Pryor has a torn PCL.

Put this one in the bank.

BCS Bowl Previews

The BCS Bowls are about to kick into gear! Check out Tim Brown’s college bowl predictions on BetFlix regarding the January 1 st Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl.

Game To Stay Away From (If That’s Possible!): Orange Bowl Between Iowa and Georgia Tech

The college bowl line on this game is Tech -3 ½. Sounds reasonable, right? Well, yeah…that’s the problem. Betting on Tech or Iowa in this game sounds reasonable. The issue is that neither team appears to have a decided advantage over the other.

The total appears realistic as well at 50 ½. The thing about this game is that neither Georgia Tech nor Iowa really probably deserves to be in this game. Or…maybe they both do. See? I don’t know!

Iowa can cover…or Georgia Tech can cover. The game can go over…or the game can go under. The Orange Bowl is just too competitive for me to find a really good wager. Oh, I’ll pick one and I’ll make a bet, because I’m that kind of guy, but if there was a game that I was going to skip making a wager on a BCS game, the Orange Bowl would be the game.

Parlay to Bet For Sure: Oregon -4 in the Rose Bowl to TCU -7 ½ in the Fiesta Bowl to Alabama -4 in the BCS Championship

Oregon should roll, but ‘Bama? I have to admit that I was very impressed with Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl.

The TCU Horned Frogs have a Top 5 defense and Boise State played pansies all year long. I like the Broncos, like everybody, but TCU is just too good on both offense and defense and should beat up Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. TCU would have a shot against Alabama in the BCS Championship. Yes, I believe that they are that good.

If I was impressed with the Cornhuskers in the Holiday Bowl, then I have to be impressed with Texas, right? Not necessarily. It’s not like Texas scored against the Cornhuskers’ defense and lest we forget the Longhorns gave up 39 points to Texas A&M, who subsequently got squashed by Georgia in a bowl game last Monday, in their final Big 12 regular season game of 2009.

The Crimson Tide should run and pass all over the Texas defense and Colt McCoy is going to find it tough to get anything going against Alabama’s super awesome D.

Yeah, Texas beat USC the last time they were in the BCS Championship but as good as McCoy is he’s no Vince Young and coach Nick Saban for ‘Bama knows how to prepare his boys.

Don’t Drink The Kool-Aid: Cincinnati to Beat Florida in the Sugar Bowl

Tim picks Cincinnati to beat Florida in one of his BetFlix videos. I can’t do it, Mr. Brown. I just can’t. I love you and respect you, but I can’t.

The college bowl line went from 10 ½ to 12 ½ in this one so far and it should go higher. What that means is that bettors are indeed NOT drinking the Kool-Aid!

Don’t start is my suggestion. Florida will roll in this game. Cincy’s defense is horrid, absolutely horrid, and Florida’s defense is fantastic.

Also, this is Tim Tebow’s last game as Florida’s QB. The man might not play in the NFL. He probably definitely won’t as a quarterback. Expect him to be awesome in the Sugar Bowl and expect his teammates to really step it up for him.

BCS Bowl Betting – Cincinnati vs. Florida in the Sugar Bowl

In the second BCS bowl betting battle of 2010, the Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0, 6-6 ATS) will square off with the Florida Gators (12-1, 6-6) in the Sugar Bowl. Controversy and storylines are abounding in the Sugar Bowl betting proceedings. For Florida, this will be the final game in the storied career of QB Tim Tebow.

HC Urban Meyer is also taking an indefinite leave of absence following this game as he tends to health issues. The Bearcats have had their share of drama as well. They came up a few inches short of playing for the National Championship, but after Texas made its field goal against Nebraska to win the Big XII and guarantee a spot in the BCS bowl betting bash for all of the marbles, HC Brian Kelly bailed on his team for the bright lights of Notre Dame.

In spite of all of the issues on both sides, the Gators have been lined as 12.5-point favorites on the Sugar Bowl betting line. The ‘total’ chimes in at 57.

The Bearcats come into this game as decided underdogs even though they ran the table this year and only played four games that finished within ten points. Three of those four game in the final six weeks of the regular season, though. QB Tony Pike will be playing in his final game for Cincinnati. If not for an injury that caused him to miss a month of the season, he may have won the Heisman Trophy this year. The senior complete 63% of his passes for 2,349 yards and 26 TDs against six picks. Cincinnati’s offense ranked sixth in the NCAA in passing (320.2 yards per game) and total offense (464.2 yards per game) and scored the fifth most points in the land (39.8 per game).

The oddsmakers are finding it difficult to believe that Tebow is going to go out losing in each of his final two games after running through well over a year’s worth of contests without a blemish on his resume. It’s fair to say that Tebow is the greatest Florida Gator of all-time. Not only was he a part of two National Championship teams and captured a Heisman Trophy, but he also recorded the most rushing touchdowns in SEC history (56).

In all four of his seasons at quarterback, he completed at least 64% of his passes and totaled 8,803 yards and 85 touchdowns against 16 INTs. Don’t rest on the Florida defense though, which finished the year ranked #3 in the land in points allowed at 11.5 per game.

It’s easy to promptly jump on the Florida bandwagon in this game, but there’s a reason that the Bearcats went undefeated. Unlike the Gators, who scheduled Troy, Charleston Southern, Florida International, and Florida State, Cincinnati went out and took on some hefty competition and lived to tell about it.

The bright lights won’t bother this team, nor will all of the pro-Florida distractions intimidate it. The Bearcats have something to prove, and they very well could wrap up a perfect season on Friday. Take any points you can get as a bonus, as this is a huge number.

Rose’s Recommendation: 4* Cincinnati Bearcats

Rating Scale 1* – 5*

NFL Week 17 Preview – 4 Game Betting Pack

Two teams that have baffled handicappers on the NFL betting board this season are the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings.

The Giants started the year on a tear, going an impressive 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS through the first five weeks of the schedule. Then, the wheels fell off the bus in New York. With an embarrassing 41-9 loss at home to Carolina (+9) last week, the Giants are a dismal 2-8 against the number (3-7 SU) over their last 10 games.

While New York is out of the playoff picture, Minnesota remains in position for the postseason despite stumbling lately. The Vikings began the season 10-1 SU and a bankable 7-3-1 ATS, but they’ve hit the skids in recent weeks. Minnesota has dropped three of four games both SU and against the spread heading into its battle with New York this weekend.

NY Giants at Minnesota (-9, 47.5) – 1 PM ET

The Vikings (11-4, 8-6-1 ATS) need to win against the Giants on Sunday (8-7, 6-8-1 ATS) and get some help from Dallas to hold on to a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs.

Minnesota shouldn’t have any trouble getting past New York, which has nothing for which to play after getting waxed by the Panthers last week. Whether the Vikes are able to cover is another story – and it’ll likely depend on their ability to establish Adrian Peterson.

Peterson is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry during Minny’s recent 1-3 ATS stretch after averaging 4.7 YPG prior to the Vikings hitting the doldrums.

If the Giants’ run defense performs like it did last week against the Panthers, Peterson and the Vikes figure to walk all over New York. The Giants allowed 257 yards on the ground against Carolina.

New England at Houston (-7.5, 46) – 1 PM ET

The Texans (8-7, 7-7-1 ATS) need an improbable scenario to take shape to make the playoffs as they take on the Patriots (10-5, 7-7-1 ATS) at Reliant Stadium on Sunday.

Houston needs to get past New England and get losses from two of three of Baltimore, Denver, and the New York Jets on Sunday to slip into the postseason. With the Ravens taking on Oakland and the Broncos matching up with Kansas City, the Texans are in tough.

Houston should get some help from New England, however. The Pats have already clinched the AFC East title and homefield advantage in the Wild Card round, and are likely to rest their starters against the Texans. That’s especially the case with Houston presenting a potential first-round matchup for New England if the Texans can win outright on Sunday.

Baltimore at Oakland (+10.5, 38) – 4:15 PM ET

Don’t expect the Ravens (8-7, 8-6-1 ATS) to provide any help to the Texans in their battle with the Raiders (5-10, 7-8 ATS) at Mount Davis on Sunday.

Baltimore simply needs to win out to make the postseason as a Wild Card team, and that shouldn’t be a problem against Oakland. The Ravens haven’t lost to a sub-.500 team in two seasons under head coach John Harbaugh.

Bettors should also get out their wallets for the Ravens on Sunday: Baltimore has won 11 games in a row against the number against teams with losing records.

Head-to-head, the Ravens have dominated the Raiders recently. Baltimore has cashed seven of the last eight meetings both SU and against the NFL point spread with Oakland, which is 16-38-1 ATS in its last 55 games at Oakland-Alameda County Stadium.

Green Bay at Arizona (-3, 44) – 4:15 PM ET

Get ready for a massive game of possum when the Packers (10-5, 10-4-1 ATS) hook up with the Cardinals (10-5, 9-6 ATS) on Sunday at University of Phoenix Stadium.

If the Vikings beat the Giants, the only thing that can keep Arizona from hosting Green Bay once again next week is if Philadelphia and Dallas tie – a huge improbability.

If there’s a betting angle on this one it’s that the Packers are the league’s hottest wager against the spread. Green Bay is 6-0-1 ATS over its last seven games (6-1 SU), and is 19-7-1 against the number in its last 27 road games.

That said, the Cards are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with winning records, and are tied for third in sacks (42). The Packers have allowed a NFL-high 50 sacks rolling into Sunday’s game.

NBA Betting Action – Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs

Thursday, December 31st – 7:05 PM ET
Basketball Betting Spread: 

The Week That Was: Heat 

The Heat’s third game of the past week came Wednesday night at New Orleans, before this article was written, but in the week’s first two games, it can safely be said that Miami stabilized its season. 

Coach Erik Spoelstra’s team had split its past six games, and the Heat were in search of high-quality consistency as they entered the final days of December. They found that magic ingredient in two wins that acquired two distinctly different forms. On Christmas Day, Miami Heat went to New York and knocked off the Knicks in a closely-contested 93-87 battle. After New York made a run to get within three points (83-80) with just over a minute remaining, Miami center Jermaine O’Neal produced an offensive rebound and a 15-foot jumper to seal the game with 51 seconds left. 

On Dec. 27, Miami returned home to whack the Indiana Pacers in a game that had far less drama than the Christmas duel against the Knicks. The Heat smoked Indiana, 114-80, by bolting to a 66-44 halftime lead and then – for good measure – outscoring the Pacers 32-16 in the third stanza. By forcing 20 turnovers and committing only seven, Miami ran away from an Eastern Conference doormat.  

The Week That Was: Spurs 

It was a solid, workmanlike and entirely successful week for coach Gregg Popovich’s club, which gathered its lunch pail and polished off three mediocre opponents, just as it should. 

San Antonio Spurs began its winning ways over the past seven days with a 112-97 win at Milwaukee on Dec. 26. The Spurs’ reserves gunned down the Bucks by hitting more than 75 percent (22 of 29) of their shots and compiling 51 points in the process.

On Dec. 27, the veteran-laded Spurs impressively overcame the rigors of a back-to-back set to turn back the New York Knicks, 95-88. With the outcome hanging in the balance, the dynamic backcourt of France’s Tony Parker and Argentina’s Manu Ginobili took over. With the score tied at 84-apiece, the international duo combined to score San Antonio’s final 11 points and lift the visitors to a seven-point triumph. 

On Dec. 29, the Spurs returned home and whipped the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves, 117-99. Six Spurs scored in double figures, but an even more positive aspect of the win was the fact that neither Duncan nor Parker played over 30 minutes. The Spurs notched a win and saved the legs of their superstars, a terrific combination.

Outlook & Pick 

The Heat will be dealing with the second end of a back-to-back, while the Spurs, as mentioned above, were able to rest their prime players in a relatively easy win over Minnesota on Tuesday. San Antonio is better than Miami as long as the Spurs are healthy and reasonably fresh. Guess whose rested and revived heading into this contest? The Heat are in big trouble. 

Pick: Spurs

Chick-fil-A Bowl Betting – Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee

Chick Fil-A Bowl

Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Thursday, December 31: 7:30 p.m.

BetOnline.com Betting Odds: Virginia Tech -4 ½, Total Points 49 ½

Here are some betting trends which may impact this game:

Virginia Tech: 9-2 SU in their last 11 games
Virginia Tech: 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
Virginia Tech: The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games

Tennessee: 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
Tennessee: 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
Tennessee: The total has gone UNDER 4 of their last 5 games

One of the best games every bowl season takes place on New Year’s Eve in Atlanta, in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. This year, is no different as Tennessee and Virginia Tech square off in the last college football game in 2009.

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Tennessee Volunteers (+4 ½ ) >> Join Now

The last time Virginia Tech visited the Georgia Dome, they left with a humbling loss to Alabama. They have improved immensely since that game however, in large part because of a balanced offense. Tyrod Taylor leads the attack at quarterback, as he’s thrown for 2100 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Taylor is a running threat as well, as the Hokies second leading rusher at 344 yards on the season. However, the bulk of those carries go to one of the most impressive tailbacks in college football, freshman Ryan Williams. Williams was the ACC’s top rusher this year, gaining 1538 yards on the ground, and scoring 19 touchdowns.

Speaking of phenomenal tailbacks, Tennessee has one of their own in Montario Hardesty. The senior had a great season under first year coach Lane Kiffin. On the year, he rushed for 1306 yards and 12 touchdowns. Freshman Bryce Brown is a threat running the ball as well. And finally we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the great 2009 that senior Jonathan Crompton had. After struggling his entire career, Crompton put it all together this year, throwing for 2500 yards and 26 touchdowns.

Both teams also have spectacular defenses. Virginia Tech’s is deep and aggressive, holding opponents to less than 16 points a game. Not to be outdone, Tennessee is good as well, allowing just 21 points a game in the rugged SEC. The two best defensive coordinators in all of college football might be coaching in this game, Bud Foster at Tech, and Monte Kiffin at Tennessee.

What this game will likely come down to is how Taylor handles pressure. He has been good for the most part this year, but has struggled against aggressive, blitzing defenses, like Alabama and North Carolina. While Virginia Tech still wants to beat you with the legs of Williams, having a passing game to compliment him is key.

While the college football betting odds say to take Virginia Tech, I’m telling you to take Tennessee. Remember, the younger Kiffin coached for several years on the staff of Pete Carroll, widely considered to be the best bowl coach in the game.

The Volunteers also improved immensely from the beginning of the year until the end. With a month to prepare for this game, it will likely be their best of the season.

Aaron´s Pick: Tennessee +4 ½

College Football Bowl Betting – Upset Alerts

In the Outback Bowl, NORTHWESTERN gets an opportunity to play on New Year’s Day, and opposing them is an Auburn team that started out the season looking like it might be an SEC contender, then faltered.

The Wildcats have the blood-and-guts leader in Mike Kafka, who will certainly benefit from a little rest, since he was nicked up for much of the season. This team has also covered ten of their last 13 games when getting points. That’s pretty strong, and they’re getting 7.5 points in the BetOnline college bowl betting odds.

* This is a mild one, but LSU has fought tooth-and-nail with some of the top teams in a superior conference to Penn State’s Big Ten, and getting two points in the BetOnline college bowl betting odds might present something of a bargain. After all, the Nittany Lions simply did not answer the bell against the two toughest teams they played this season ( Iowa, Ohio State; outscored by a combined 45-17) and the idea of Joe Paterno having such an edge over other coaches with more preparation time has drifted into pure myth. Sure, we have our doubts about LSU’s quarterback, Jordan Jefferson, but let’s not forget that he had an outstanding game in last season’s Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

* OKLAHOMA STATE is catching 3.5 points at BetOnline in its January 2 date against Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl, and I am wondering why. Maybe it’s because the Cowboys have been without Dez Bryant, who was declared ineligible by the NCAA. Maybe it’s because Kendall Hunter, their great running back who should have been a Heisman contender, has been hurt for most of the year. But Hunter could get himself together with the extra prep time, which would make a great two-fisted rushing attack with Keith Toston (1177 yards).

Bet on this and more of the hottest sports events at BetOnline.com Join NOW

These guys also stop the run pretty well, allowing 2.9 yards a carry, and that will leave things to the Rebels’ quarterback, Jevan Snead, who in my opinion bombed this season with an opportunity to really raise his draft stock. Snead was able to complete only 54% of his passes and was intercepted 17 times. What’s more, he failed to come through at critical times as Ole Miss dropped early-season games against South Carolina and Alabama. What you do against Southeastern Louisiana doesn’t carry much weight when analyzing college football betting picks.

* In the Fiesta Bowl, two teams from outside BCS conferences do battle, in an unusual rematch of their bowl game from last year. While the Texas Christian Horned Frogs have indeed become more menacing on defense, ranking first overall, third against the rush, fourth against the pass, and as an added attraction, fifth in rushing offense and at the top of the list in kickoff returns, there is plenty of evidence that BOISE STATE, which is catching 7.5 points in the BetOnline NCAA college bowl odds, can trade punches all the way.

For one thing, they may have an edge at the quarterback spot, with Kellen Moore hitting 65% of his passes for 39 TD’s and only three interceptions. The Broncos have a lot of speed, make no mistake, have a +19 turnover margin and can play defense when so motivated. Remember the way they throttled Rose Bowl participant Oregon in the season opener, allowing just 152 yards? Having allowed only FIVE sacks all year, they will offer a big challenge tot he TCU pass rush, and we know from one past BCS bowl game in particular that Boise State usually has a surprise or two up its sleeve. There will be plenty of "giddy-yap" in this Bronco bunch.

Suspensions and Controversy Hangs Over Alamo Bowl – Michigan State vs. Texas Tech

The Michigan State Spartans are primarily a basketball school, but their football program has surged in to prominence in recent years after some steady play.

Of course, they’ve made headlines for all the wrong reasons. With 14 players suspended due to their participation in a campus brawl, the Spartans will have a depleted roster trying to matchup against one of the most potent aerial attacks in the country.

Texas Tech, however isn’t without controversy of their own. Apparently fired head coach Mike Leach was too busy stuffing concussed players in to lockers and has been suspended until the school can figure out just what’s going on. The player who has thrust these allegations on the head coach is Adam James, son of an ESPN football analyst.

Maybe if you’re going to traumatize a player, you should make sure his father doesn’t have a means of broadcasting your transgressions all over the universe.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Red Raiders’ offense will suffer. With an average of 36.7 points per game powered by 380.6 yards per game through the skies, the team will look to interim head coach Ruffin McNeill, the defensive coordinator of Texas Tech.

Against a defense that allows 251.6 passing yards in a conference that focuses primarily on the run, the Spartans are going to have a handful of troubles protecting their endzone from being raided by Texas Tech.

Michigan State Spartans (6-6) vs. Texas Tech Raiders (8-4)

Saturday, January 2nd — Alamodome, San Antonio — 9:00pm EST

NCAAF Betting Line: Texas Tech -7.5 (60.5)

Michigan State Spartans vs. Texas Tech Raiders >> Join to Bet Now

Michigan State’s secondary got torched for 29 scores this season, and starter Taylor Potts will be able to play virtually risk-free in the Alamo Bowl. The Spartans grabbed just five picks this season – the fewest in the league by any defense. Potts threw for 3,068 yards and 20 touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 135.76.

The Red Raiders have nine receivers that had 20+ receptions and were led by freshman sensation Alexander Torres who had 65 catches with 791 yards along with six touchdowns.

This game may be clouded by suspensions to a coach and several players, but the fact remains that Texas Tech knows how to run its offense with or without Leach. If the Raiders were playing a team that had the personnel and the reputation of being better, this would be a tough game to offer you an expert college bowl free pick. But with the hit to the Spartans’ depth chart, there’s no way they can keep Texas Tech off the board.

Furious Free Pick: Texas Tech -7.5 (OVER)

In just a few minutes you can be betting on the hottest college bowl games –  JOIN HERE!

College Basketball Picks – Arizona Wildcats vs. USC Trojans

Thursday, December 31 – 7 PM ET

BetOnline NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds: USC -8.5

Here are some of the trends as they relate to our NCAA college basketball picks:

• ARIZ has lost five of its last eight games SU
• ARIZ has covered one of its last seven games
• ARIZ has played three of its last four games OVER the total
• ARIZ has lost its last five road games SU
• USC has won its last six games SU
• USC has played five of its last eight games UNDER the total
• USC has covered three of its last four games
• USC has won eight of its last ten home games SU
• USC has covered one of its last seven home games

When the season began, USC appeared to be a team in the midst of a major rebuilding phase. Tim Floyd had left the program, escaping under the cloud of a recruiting scandal that included many matters of investigation regarding the way in which OJ Mayo had come to campus. Demar DeRozan was a "one-and-done" and Taj Gibson had also left for the NBA. There were no scorers coming back aside from Dwight Lewis.

He’s averaging over 12 points, but sophomore big man Nikola Vucevic has emerged to be force, with 13 points and almost ten rebounds, and junior North Carolina transfer Alex Stepheson has bulled his way for 8.7 rebounds and leads the team in blocked shots. If you were to include the Trojans in your college basketball picks, you’d be doing well of late.

You have to give Kevin O’Neill, the journeyman coach who took over in Floyd’s wake, a lot of credit here for restoring order. USC began the season losing games to Loyola Marymount, Nebraska, Texas and Georgia Tech, but they have put together a six-game winning streak, which included a 22-point win over Tennessee, an eleven-point victory over a still-respectable St. Mary’s squad, and another eleven-point win, this one over UNLV, which had been rated at one point this year.

USC is not much on hitting three-pointers (just 3.1 per game), and in fact haven’t had more than three in any of the last five games. The Trojans are not big shooters from two-point range either (44.4% overall), but what they do that has made a difference is defend.

O’Neill has them allowing just 37.2% shooting, and that lends itself well to their style of slowing the pace. Finally, it doesn’t hurt that point guard Mike Gerrity, the Charlotte transfer who is shooting 53% and scoring 14.8 points a game, is in the lineup now. He might be the missing ingredient.

This is a bit of a grudge match, as many in the USC program feel that Arizona stole a few of its freshman recruits, taking advantage of the confusion in the USC program. To add another angle, O’Neill was the coach at Arizona while Lute Olson took a leave of absence, then was let go unceremoniously after Olson came back. Look for USC to exhibit more defensive intensity than usual, as we lay the 8.5 points in our BetOnline college basketball picks.

JAY’S PLAY: USC -8.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Sign up now and get FULL access to all of BetOnline features!

AFC Do or Die Games – Your Winning Picks

It’s do or die time for a few teams in the AFC.  Okay, it sort of feels like it’s do or die time for every team in the AFC in Week 17!

No less than 7 teams are alive for the two remaining playoff spots.  All 7 have somewhat of a shot to win, but no more than 2 control their own destiny.  Forget about picking the teams to win.  What about picking the teams to cover the spread in the NFL sportsbook?  Check out some quick analysis on a few key AFC games in Week 17 below.

Get your bets down, then make sure to check the BetOnline Sportsbook on Monday for the AFC Playoff lines for the 1st round of the playoffs!

AFC Week 17 Key Games

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans

Kick-off:  1:00 pm EST

NFL Odds:  Houston -9, Total 46

Analysis:  Coach Bill Belichick, aka Grumpy from Snow White, won’t play his starters because the Pats have a playoff game coming up in two weeks.  That might not be such a good idea considering that New England was terrible on the road this year.

In any case, the Pats’ D would have a hard time with Houston with their starters in because QB Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson are two of the best in the game.  Expect the Texans to win this game, they will want to pressure Denver, Baltimore and the Jets, but 9 points is a lot, don’t you think?

I’m betting the under and not even looking at the trends because without Brady, Moss and Welker out there for the full 60, I just don’t see the Pats putting up more than 10 to 14 points in this game.

Winning Pick:  Under 46

Sign up now and start betting on NFL!

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Kick-off:  4:15 pm EST

NFL Odds:  Denver -13, Total 38

Analysis:  It’s do or die time for the Denver Broncos who are just 1 and 5 against the spread in their last 6 games versus an AFC West opponent.

Denver has lost three games in a row.  The problem I have with the Broncos in this game is that they probably should have beaten the Eagles in Philly last week as huge underdogs.  They didn’t but emotionally they laid everything out there.

Do they suffer the dreaded “bounce” in this game?  Yes, I think so.  13 points is an awful lot of points to give up in Week 17 in the NFL.  Denver did beat K.C. 44 to 13 just about a month ago.

I don’t expect that to repeat on Sunday.  The Broncos will win, but K.C. should cover the spread.

Winning Pick:  Kansas City +13

Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders

Kick-off:  4:15 pm EST

NFL Odds:  Baltimore -10 ½, Total 38

Analysis:  With a victory, the Ravens will secure a playoff berth.  Baltimore is 11 and 0 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a losing record.

They are also 5 and 0 in their last 5 games when they are favored by 10 ½ or more points.  Oakland is 4 and 1, however, in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

I sort of like the Ravens in this game, but Oakland’s defense is pretty good.  10 ½ points is a huge number and the Raiders have gone win-loss-win-loss against the spread in their last six games.  They’re coming up to a “win” ATS in this one.

Winning Pick: Oakland Raiders +10 ½

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets

Kick-off:  8:20 pm EST

NFL Odds:  Jets -10, Total 35 ½

Analysis:  The Bengals won’t exactly lie down, but they aren’t going to do much against the Jets because they, like the Patriots, play next week in the wildcard round.

That might be an issue for the Bengals, however.  I mean, the Jets would make the playoffs with a victory.  Do the Bengals really want to give the Jets confidence considering the fact that they will most likely have to play them in 6 or 7 short days from Sunday?

Probably not, but, then again, Cincy can’t take the chance of Ochocinco, Cedric Benson or Carson Palmer getting hurt. 

The trends favor both the Jets and Bengals.  That’s not going to help us in this game.  What will, though, is the fact that rookie QB Mark Sanchez is going to face a very, very good Bengals’ defensive team.

Neither the Jets nor the Bengals will put up a lot of points in this game.  I suspect that with Ochocinco and Palmer on the bench for most of this one and back-up RB Larry Johnson carrying the load, the Bengals will eat up a lot of clock.

So will the Jets who won’t let Sanchez drop their season down the toilet by tossing the ball 30 to 40 errant passes in this game.  

I’m going under.

Winning Pick: Under 35 ½

Outback Bowl Betting Preview and Pick – Northwestern vs. Auburn

January 1st, 2010 – 11:00 am EST

Northwestern (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten) vs. Auburn (7-5, 3-5; SEC)

The New Year’s Day college bowl cavalcade begins as the Northwestern Wildcats and the Auburn Tigers travel to Tampa Bay Florida for the 2010 Outback Bowl. The 11am start leaves New Years Eve revelers little time to shake off their hangovers but there are few better ways to shake a hangover than with college football.

Northwestern Wildcats +7 +250 Over 55
Auburn Tigers -7 -300 Under 55

The BetOnline.com bookmakers have the 7-5, Auburn Tigers as the -7 point favorites. A straight up wager on the 8-4, Northwestern Wildcats will pay college bowl bettors +250 on the moneyline. The predicted game total is set at 55 points.

Offensively the Auburn Tigers scored 32.9 points a game but that total is inflated by their 41.4 points a game average over their first five games. The Tigers started the season 5-0 but finished 2-5 and with one of their wins coming versus a Division II opponent. During their stumble to the finish line, they managed 26.8 points a game and if we take out their 63-point win over Div. II’s Furman, which drops the average to 20.8 a game.

Auburn -7 vs Northwestern >> Join to Bet Now

Northwestern’s defense held opponents to 23.3 points a game. The Wildcats boast a solid run defense and they managed to sack opposing quarterbacks 26 times this season and forced 26 turnovers, which tied them for 20th in the nation.

This is one of those lines that standout as a surefire underdog play as Auburn has struggled down the stretch while Northwestern has exceeded expectation including upsets over Iowa and 14th ranked Wisconsin.

Let’s have a look at a few trends before we make our Outback Bowl prediction:

• Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog
• Auburn is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall
• Auburn is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite
• Auburn is 1-5 SU versus Division 1A teams in their past six games

As you can see based on the four hot trends above, recent history is favoring the underdog Wildcats. Not many people agree with me but Northwestern should win this game, I’m going to take the moneyline but if you want to be a little less risky take the Wildcats +7.

BetOnline.com Outback Bowl Pick: Northwestern Wildcats +250 moneyline

Next Page »