EPL Betting: Everton vs. Birmingham City

Everton FC are having all sorts of problems lately, winning being one of them. They are in the bottom half of the table, perilously close to the danger zone. In spite of these issues, did they not manage to take a point off Chelsea when they held the Blues to a 3:3 draw at the weekend. Go figure.

Everton failed to build on that result in Europe as they lost to Bate Borisov in Europa League action 1:0. This was largely because Coach Moyes fielded a second-tier team knowing that his side had already qualified. So the loss shouldn’t knock a bother out of them and his first team will be well rested for this weekend’s proceedings.

Birmingham City, meanwhile, are flying high after winning their fifth consecutive match and extending their undefeated streak to eight. Would you believe it they are at the top of the form table this week with 16 points hauled in their last six. Who would have thunk promoted side Birmingham would be shaking things up so. As a result of their recent uptick in form, Birmingham are sitting pretty in seventh spot in the league, level on points with Liverpool at 27. I am sure they are liking the view from up there and to continue enjoying their lofty digs they will be looking to continue their impressive form at the expense of a inconsistent Everton.

Soccer Betting Line:

Everton FC -½ -120 -120 2½ O +105 U -125 1½ O +105 U -125 Draw +235
Birmingham City +½ Ev +350 2½ O +105 U -125 ½ O -115 U -105 Draw +235

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Sunday December 20, 2009
Venue: Goodison Park

Soccer Betting Verdict: In spite of Birmingham City’s high-flying ways the market doesn’t give them the favourite nod, tipping them instead as the considerable underdogs in this match at +350. If this is a mistake then soccer bettors should pounce on these odds and pound them for everything they are worth. I mean they are undefeated in their last eight matches! The streak is comprised of an undefeated run at home of five and three on the road. Impressive results were a 2:2 draw at Anfield Stadium and a scoreless draw against Man City. They also beat Fulham and Sunderland who are not doing too badly this season. Birmingham is confident and when a side is this confident winning becomes a habit.

Everton have been too inconsistent to be the sure favourites in this match and so I would recommend giving their -120 odds as skip.

In terms of betting on the score, Birmingham have scored in their last six away matches at least once. Therefore, taking the Over ½ -115 for Birmingham team totals is a no brainer.
Everton have scored only three goals in their last five home matches spanning all competitions. In their last six home league matches, they scored eight goals. As such, I think Under 1 ½ -125 for Everton team totals is just about right.

Europa League Betting: Dinamo Zagreb vs. Politehnica Timisoara

Dinamo Zagreb got back into the mix when they surprised Anderlecht 1:0 on the away on match day 4. The win saw them close the gap on Anderlecht to two points and they have a shot at the very least to overhaul the Belgian side for second place finish in Group A. FC Timisoara, on the other hand, are at the butt of Group A, with two points in five cycles. For them the competition is almost certainly over.

Soccer Betting Line:

Dinamo Zagreb -1½ -115 -325 2½ O -130 U Ev Draw +375
Politehnica Timisoara +1½ -115 +750 2½ O -130 U Ev Draw +375

Match Time: 01:00 PM Eastern Time Thursday December 17, 2009

Soccer Betting Verdict: Dinamo Zagreb opened their campaign with a home loss to RSC Anderlecht but they recovered from the slow start with a 3:0 win over FC Timisoara on the away. Just as they got their campaign on track, they suffered back-to-back losses to Ajax. The setback seemed to have them all but out of the competition. Then a surprise win over Anderlecht on the away on match day five saw them back in the thick of things, with a shot, albeit a slim one, to secure a spot in the last 32. In order to accomplish this they will have to extract maximum points in their last two fixtures.

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Politehnica Timisoara have had a disappointing European run with a 0-2-3 mark in five cycles. They are fourth in Group A on two points and with very little to hope for in the competition. The only thing left for them is to play for pride.

Zagreb have lost both prior home matches. Had they not been better on the away they would not be in this position with a chance to vie for a spot in the last 32. Unfortunately, advancement rests on winning at home and they will have to break the negative trend if they are to extend their European campaign to the knockout stages. That Timisoara have little to play for presents them with ideal conditions to win and they really have no excuse not to win this match. Therefore, at -325 they are the better play to win outright. They also have the added boost of having beaten Timisoara 3:0 earlier in the competition.

Europa League Betting: Lille vs. Slavia Praha

Lille enter the final cycle of UEFA Europa League group matches in second place, vying to secure advancement into the last 32. Because Lille are level on points with Genoa and have a superior head-to-head record they are almost certain to advance (provided they do not get a worse result than the Italian outfit, that is). Winning against Slavia Praha would be a mere rubber stamp. That Slavia Praha are bottom in the section, winless in five cycles and already eliminated makes Lille’s chances of winning look that much better.

Match Time: 01:00 PM Eastern Time Thursday December 17, 2009

Soccer Betting Line:

Lille -1½ -135 -400 2½ O -125 U -105 Draw +400
Slavia Prague +1½ +105 +1000 2½ O -125 U -105 Draw +400

BetOnline Soccer Betting Verdict: The first leg of the tie between Lille and Slavia Praha ended in a 5:1 victory for the visiting French side. Indeed, Slavia were demoralized at home. The loss was their second consecutive loss in UEFA Europa Group league action and frankly Slavia never fully recovered afterwards. They managed three consecutive draws to tot up a tally of three points and end what has to be another dissatisfying European season.

Lille opened their campaign with a draw against Valencia before heading to Prague and hammering the Czech outfit 5:1. Lille built on that performance by beating Genoa 3:0 at home. They suffered a slight setback in the return leg when they allowed Genoa to take all three points by a late equalizer. They were thwarted further when Valencia beat them 3:1 on match day five.

Soccer Free Picks: Slavia Praha have put forward a disappointing European campaign so much so that expecting a last hurrah is a pipedream (Sorry Slavia fans). The market tips Slavia Praha at outrageously long odds of +1000. But the price is right. It also suggests that betting on them to accomplish what they have so far failed to do – win a match – is unlikely to payout.

Lille to win has to be the sure play. At -400 odds though soccer bettors are not going to clean up huge. For good value, take the Overs at 2 ½ -125. Remember, the last time these two sides met Lille pounded them with five goals. Moreover, Lille will want to ensure advancement and a few extra goals for insurance would do the trick.

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Europa League Betting: Genoa vs. Valencia

Valencia FC lead Group B with nine points, but they are not certain of advancement just yet. Lille and Genoa, currently second and third, respectively, are level on points and only two points adrift of Valencia. Indeed, Group B is wide open for the taking and if Genoa beat Valencia and Lille beat Slavia Praha (the other match in the same section), then it would be the end of the road for the current group leaders.

Whichever way you slice this match, it is a must win; making it perhaps the most compelling encounter of Group B.

Soccer Betting Line:

Genoa pk -120 +150 2½ O -110 U -120 Draw +225
Valencia pk -110 +160 2½ O -110 U -120 Draw +225

Match Time: 01:00 PM Eastern Time Thursday December 17, 2009

Soccer Betting Verdict:When the sides first met on match day 2, the Spanish outfit won 3:2. The victory extended Valencia’s undefeated run to two matches after drawing against Lille on opening night 1:1. Valencia missed a huge chance in Prague to take all three points when they settled for a 2:2 draw after being up two-goals in the first 50 minutes of the match. In completely uncharacteristic lack of focus, the Spaniards allowed a ten man Slavia Praha storm back with two goals in the last eleven minutes of the match and take a share of the spoils. But Valencia was not about to be lackadaisical twice in a row as they took care of matters against Lille convincingly on match day 3, beating the French outfit 3:1 at home.

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Genoa are in third place with a real shot at advancing into the last 32. They are level on points with second place Lille and two points adrift of Valencia. A win over Valencia would surely see them through to the knock out stages. Genoa have compiled a 2-1-2 mark in the Group stage, which includes their dramatic victory over Lille on match day 3 – a late equalizer that breathed life into their campaign. Genoa could have advanced their bid on match day four but a stoic Slavia Praha thwarted their ambitions as they grinded to a scoreless draw.

Soccer Free Picks: This match is tough to call for various reasons. Valencia have the slight disadvantage playing away from home – in their last two away fixtures in Europe, they managed only a draw. They will have to come up with a victory to be sure of survival in the competition and a top spot finish. In that, there is incentive and they certainly are a side capable of victory. They beat Genoa on match day 2, making them a good bet at +160 to win outright.
The market tips this match rather close, with Genoa at +150. Which means this match could end in a draw – but as the result would be detrimental to Genoa’s European bid expect the Italians to go after the win as well.

In the end, the value bet is the scoreline. Neither side will want to risk too much but at the same time they will not want to be caught out sleeping at the helm. Over 2.5 goals -110 is the pick.