Super Bowl 2010 – Early Betting Preview

The appearance of both the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV (Sunday, February 7, 6:25 PM ET) has put to bed the old-school assumptions that were the foundation of any solid pro NFL betting strategy over the past four decades.

For years, handicappers and mainstream analysts alike told us the basis of any good football team lied in an ability to run the ball and stop the run.

Looking at the Colts (16-2 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) and Saints (15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS) and their status as the NFL’s two top teams this season, it’s safe to say times have changed in professional football.

The shift towards pass-dominant offenses leading the league in wins began with the St. Louis Rams and the Greatest Show on Turf a little over a decade ago. But it’s been the emergence of the Colts as the league’s best team that’s truly cemented the revolution.

When Indianapolis won Super Bowl XLI over the Chicago Bears three years ago, it became the first team ranked outside the top 10 in scoring defense to go all the way.

Thing is, it wasn’t even close. The Colts won the Super Bowl after allowing 22.5 points per game (23rd) in 2006, and were only 21st in total defense and dead last against the run.

Over the past two seasons, it was offense against defense in the Super Bowl, with the New York Giants stunning the New England Patriots before the Pittsburgh Steelers held off the Arizona Cardinals. Defense carried the day – and took home the cash – on both occasions.

This year, it’ll be offense against offense when Indy clashes with New Orleans at Sun Life Stadium in Miami. It hardly matters that the Saints ranked 25th in total defense (357.8 YPG) this season and that the Colts were last in rushing (80.9 YPG). The team that covers could very well be the one that scores last.

Oddsmakers like Indy against the NFL point spread heading into the second week of betting. The Colts opened as 5-point favorites late on Sunday night, but they’d been bet up to -5.5 by the middle of the week.

A ton of money came in on the AFC champions after the line was released, but support for Indianapolis is leveling off. Through Thursday afternoon, only 54% of wagers on the spread had come in on the Colts, down from the 65% number from earlier in the week.

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The total is on the board at 56.5, up from the initial 55-point offering. It comes as no surprise that public bettors are siding with the over, given both teams rank in the top 10 in total, passing, and scoring offense.

If the number holds above 55, it would represent the highest total in Super Bowl history, which is only fitting given the shift towards the passing game over the last 10 years. Previously, the three highest totals for the big game were set at 55, 53.5, and 53 points, respectively.

The proliferation in points in recent years hasn’t made the over the sharp wager on the total, however. When the Steelers and Cardinals played over the 46.5-point number in last year’s Super Bowl, it was the first time the over cashed since 2003, when the Patriots and Carolina Panthers went over the 38-point total.

The under is 4-1 in the last five Super Bowls, including in Indy’s 29-17 win as 6.5-point chalk over Chicago in Miami in 2007. The Colts and Bears played under the 47-point total that day amid the rain and humidity.

The humid weather at South Beach could play a role again this time around. The footballs used for the Super Bowl are more heavily painted than the ones used during the regular season and playoffs, and are more slippery because of it.

Factor in the humidity, Drew Brees’ small hands, and Peyton Manning’s Super Bowl experience, and such a small thing could be the difference next Sunday.

Looking at the trends, the favored Colts will certainly need some help in covering the spread against the Saints. The underdog has cashed the last two Super Bowls since Indianapolis’ win three years ago, and is 6-2 against the number in the last eight championship games.

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Super Bowl 44 2010 – The Tale of Two Kickers

Matt Stover 471/563
Garrett Hartley 22/24

The Super Bowl 44 2010 coverage this week and next will surround the Saints and Archie Manning’s boy Peyton, but with 55 men on each roster there are plenty of other interesting sides to talk about. These are just two of those.

One man has made 471 regular season field goals in his career, the other only 22. When Indianapolis Colts kicker Matt Stover kicked his first field goal, New Orleans Saints kicker Garrett Hartley was only in kindergarten. Now two athletes on different sides of their careers will face off in Super Bowl 44.

Stover broke into the league in 1991 with the Cleveland Browns, and he had played for the Browns V1.0 (Browns pre 1996, Ravens post 1996) his entire career. So it came as a bit of a surprise to Stover that the Ravens cut him earlier this season. However, the always-classy Stover said at the time "You knew they were going with Steve Hauschka, and I hope Steve has a good season," Stover said. "I haven’t said anything during this entire process, and I won’t because I have nothing but good things to stay about the Ravens and my career with that organization. I wish them nothing but the best."

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That cut couldn’t have worked out more perfectly for the Colts, as they lost super-star kicker Adam Vinatieri for six weeks to a knee injury. The Colts quickly picked up the 41 year old kicker who has been every bit as accurate this season as he’s been the past 19 seasons. Kicking 9/11 field goals and a perfect 33 extra points. Stover will be the oldest player ever in the Super Bowl.

Just starting to make a name for himself is Garrett Hartley, the 23-year kicker for the New Orleans Saints. The Saints expected Hartley to be their full time kicker in the 2009 NFL season but after failing an off-season drug test, Hartley was suspended four games by the NFL. It took a shaky performance by veteran John Carney in week 12 before Hartley could return to a starting role in week 13. He’s been excellent, kicking 9/11 field goals in the regular season and is a perfect 2/2 in the playoffs. His last kick has been his most important kick of his career, in overtime the

Saints called on Hartley to kick a 40-yarder against the Vikings. The kick sailed through the uprights and the Saints are in the Super Bowl.

With seven of the past 43 Super Bowls settled by a field goal or less, the pressure will be on these men to kick their teams to victory. Will the aged veteran kick a Super Bowl winner to close out his career or will it be the second year kid still trying to find his way and ultimately finds glory?

NFL Pro Bowl Odds – Why We Need the Pro Bowl

NFL Odds for 2010 Pro Bowl: NFC -2, Total 57

The last time the Pro Bowl was held in Miami, I was there. That’s how old I am. It was January of 1975. That was so long ago that John Madden, who has retired after a long career at the mike, was actually coaching one of the teams. Most people who read this probably don’t even realize that the Pro Bowl has actually been held somewhere else other than Hawaii.

I’m not sure this game has ever meant much to anybody, except those guys who are able to get into the game through some kind of back door. For example, in that Pro Bowl game at the Orange Bowl, James Harris won the game’s Most Valuable Player award. What did Harris actually do to get into the game? Well, he completed 53.5% of his passes, and tossed eleven TD’s in eleven games. He wasn’t in the top ten in the league in completions or passing yards, but he did post the third best passer rating in the league.

The next season a quarterback named Mike Boryla actually played in the Pro Bowl. Do you remember him? He is so illustrious that some of the people I talked to who spent over two decades in the NFL had trouble for a minute pulling him up in their memory bank. His father, Vince Boryla, a former basketball player who also coached the New York Knicks, was far more notable.

Boryla got to the All-Star showcase after starting a grand total of five games for the Philadelphia Eagles in the 1975 season, during which time his team had a 2-3 record. Boryla threw six TD passes and 12 interceptions, so I guess he must have been facing some pretty tough coverage schemes. Truth be told, he wasn’t even the regular quarterback of his own team. Roman Gabriel, who threw for 1644 yards and 13 touchdowns, had that distinction.

In his entire NFL career Boryla, who threw two TD passes in that Pro Bowl and later became a mortgage banker, started 19 games. Next Sunday Drew Brees and Peyton Manning will each be starting their 19th game of the season.

Boryla’s Pro Bowl appearance, as well as countless others, came about as a result of what is perhaps the most enduring tradition of this contest – players begging out of action for one reason or another. Usually it’s an injury that offers an excuse. Sometimes it’s real, sometimes it takes some creativity. For instance, what brought up the "discrepancy" about Lewis’ Pro Bowl appearances is that one season he just stepped aside so that his friend and teammate Bart Scott, an alternate, could go. The whole thing has produced some interesting and embarrassing situations.

I mean, the Atlanta Falcons, who finished 6-8 in 1969 and had to win their last three meaningless games to accomplish even that, sent a total of seven players to the Pro Bowl that season, including rookie tight end Jim Mitchell, who had 22 catches, and kicker Bob Etter, who made half his field goals. Why? Because they were willing to go.

Now you know why they moved the game to Hawaii. But even that didn’t cure the "dropout syndrome."

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As an added attraction for this year’s game, which is held on the same field at LandShark – no check that, Sun Life Stadium – where the Super Bowl is going to be held a week later, fourteen players had to be taken off the rosters because they are playing next week. So there’s an excuse for Brees and Manning, while Brett Favre, who got banged up pretty good last week against New Orleans, isn’t going to bother, and joins sixteen more players who didn’t show up. Tom Brady isn’t on hand, nor is Philip Rivers. There were so many quarterbacks who begged out of this game that I thought for a minute they’d be bringing JaMarcus Russell and Tim Tebow in to replace them.

What we’ve got instead is David Garrard, whose quarterback rating and yards passing were lower than Joe Flacco, and Vince Young, who threw for less yards and less touchdowns than Matthew Stafford. This is actually the second time in three seasons that a flood of QB exits opened the door for Young to get to the Pro Bowl.

How tough is it to get to the Pro Bowl? Well, kicker Nate Kaeding of San Diego just pulled out of the game with an "injury," so for convenience’s sake, Dan Carpenter of the Dolphins, who can get to the practice field in about 15 minutes from his home, got the call to replace him.

Still, I really do like the Pro Bowl, and I will probably go on Sunday. I don’t mind that the guys who are there are the ones who really want to be there. For someone like Garrard, he is happy to have been voted in for the first time. As for Young, he is ecstatic to even be on the radar screen, which didn’t appear to be the case at the start of 2009.

I like to see some of the guys doing thankless jobs get rewarded. If you don’t live in Philadelphia or Oakland, you probably don’t know who Jon Dorenbos or Joe Condo are, but they are Pro Bowl players -long snappers to be precise – and in case you don’t think that kind of skill is needed in a game like this, you obviously haven’t tried it. Special teams players are finally getting recognized. Kassim Osgood of the Chargers can’t seem to make San Diego’s receiver rotation, but he is in his third Pro Bowl, and you can bet HE isn’t pulling out. Neither is Minnesota’s Heath Farwell, Osgood’s college roommate at San Diego State, who is the NFC’s special teams player. Guys who cover kicks can get highly-decorated; Steve Tasker, formerly of the Bills, made it seven times. That’s a lot of frequent flyer miles to Honolulu and back from Buffalo.

I also like seeing rookies in the game. This season we’ve got Brian Orakpo of Washington, Clay Matthews of Green Bay and Johnny Knox of Chicago. Jairus Byrd of Buffalo and Brian Cushing of Houston pulled out, but I assume they have a good excuse, or else we’ve REALLY got a problem.

I’ve also been scouting a little.

Yes, it’s great to sit in front of NFL Network on my TV and watch those Pro Bowl practices, which feature almost no action and no contact.

I’m not sure how you really go about handicapping a Pro Bowl, but I would think that the AFC, with Matt Schaub, who led the league with 4770 yards, Young, who can confound a defense with his running ability, may have an odd edge at quarterback because it can "change speeds," even though none of their signal-callers made the playoffs, while all of the NFC QB’s (Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb) did. I also like the size of the AFC receivers with the liberal passing rules, and the AFC secondary can probably do a better job in man coverage. As the underdog of two points in the BetOnline odds, the "junior circuit" may be the way to go.

I guess, when all is said and done, the bottom line is that maybe we need the Pro Bowl primarily because it is a reminder of how good the NBA All-Star Weekend is by comparison.

As they say, don’t hate the players, hate the game.

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Steven Jackson Beats Pregnant Girls and Rey Maualuga Busted Driving Drunk

What is going on with athletes lately? First Tiger is busted with a bazillion girls and his whole reputation is tarnished before the eyes of the world. Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton were just busted for bringing guns to the locker room to solve a dispute over a gambling debt and now news has just broke that Steven Jackson was beating his pregnant wife and Rey Maualuga has just been arrested for driving under the influence.

Wake up people! Holy hell, where are all the role models in sports anymore.

Everyone has been beaten to death in the sports pages about the first two incidents I mentioned, but we’re just learning about Jackson and Maualuga’s unfortunate slip ups.

In the case of Steven Jackson, he’s been accused of beating his former girlfriend, Supriya Harris, when she was nine months pregnant. Jackson’s not a doctor so he can’t really claim he was trying to induce birth. But if he’s found guilty of this, I don’t know what looks worse than beating the mother of your child who is due any moment.

It’s rumored that his young nephew had to jump in between the two to stop the incident from continuing. In the statement given to police, Harris alleges Jackson became enraged during an argument and repeatedly pushed her to the ground before he grabbed her arm and slammed her against a door.

Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo released a statement Thursday.

"We are aware of the situation involving Steven Jackson," said Spagnuolo. "We are in the process of gathering information. We are always concerned with issues involving our players."

In the report, Harris clamed she was bleeding heavily and eventually went to a hospital with Jackson. Harris says in the report their son was born nine days later, and that she left Jackson four months later, as he allegedly made threats of physical harm.

After the season the Rams just endured, they definitely did not need this.

Now onto the case of Rey Maualuga, who has been arrested for drunk driving after crashing his car in northern Kentucky. Maualuga was arrested at 3:11 a.m. EST today and charged with operating a vehicle under the influence and with careless driving, according to Kenton County Jail records. According to the police report, Rey admitted to the police officers that he had "about six Captain and Coke drinks" earlier in the night. The report also states that Rey blew a .157 on the breathalyzer, which is nearly twice the legal limit.

There isn’t much more information available other than he’s being held without bond and no attorney has yet been listed for him. Just to update, he’s most likely sitting in a dingy holding cell with his face in his hands hoping the media hasn’t gotten hold of this one yet.

Sorry Rey, you’re busted.

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NFL – Kurt Warner Retires

Will Kurt Warner Be Remembered as One of “The Greats”?

When you consider the great “rags to riches” quarterbacks in the league, you often think about Tom Brady or Tony Romo, but there’s no greater story that paints perseverance like Kurt Warner’s. NFL commentators will always, quickly tell us about the injury replacement player that was taking insurance calls just a week before suiting up in a game, but hardly ever does that player last as more than an afterthought in a game.  Rarely does that player go on to have a 12 year career embroidered by championships, individual awards and personal triumph. Yet despite all odds, there stands Kurt Warner.

For more than a decade we’ve been bogged down with Kurt Warner’s pre-football career as a grocery store stock boy. He toiled for years to be noticed by NFL coaches though scouts gleamed at his potential. Between 1994 and 1998, Warner was nothing more than an Arena Football League standout and an NFL Europe star. Despite putting up big numbers, no team was really willing to give him a chance as a backup, let alone as a starter.

By 1999, and at the age of 29, Warner was finally given his big break in a lifetime completely devoid of them. When I use the word “break”, I mean it literally, of course. Trent Green was the starting quarterback of the St. Louis Rams but tore his ACL during preseason paving the way for Warner who was listed as the next passer on the depth chart. The Rams were a competitive football team that boasted Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce but Warner was an x-factor. The man controlling the offense was literally an unknown figure in the NFL ranks and nobody knew what he was capable of. This included the fans of St. Louis, opposing defensive coordinators and Dick Vermeil, then the head coach of the Rams.

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They should’ve done their homework.

Warner seized the reigns and never looked back finishing the 1999 season with  4,353 passing yards, 41 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions. Clawing out of obscurity and in to the spotlight, Warner wasn’t going to let anyone second guess his talent anymore. The Rams went on to win Super Bowl XXXIV as underdogs against the Tennessee Titans, winning a Super Bowl MVP award for his troubles. He went from unknown to unbelievable. From backup to brilliant. Indeed he went from being a nobody to being a champion, and The Greatest Show on Turf was born.

One memorable season doesn’t make a hall of famer, and Warner still had a ways to go before being mentioned in the same sentence as guys like Joe Montana or Jon Elway. After a dismal season in 2000, the Rams stood behind Kurt Warner trading Trent Green to the Chiefs and overhauling a defense that dragged a staggering offense to playoff hell. The Rams would lose to the New Orleans Saints in the wild card.

In 2001, Warner and the Rams returned to championship form as Warner put together another MVP winning season. His 4,830 yards was the third highest output of any quarterback ever besides Dan Marino, and later Drew Brees. He once again led the league in touchdowns with 36. Taking his team to the Super Bowl, Warner and the Rams fell as fourteen point favorites to another upstart and relative unknown – the New England Patriots and Tom Brady.

Following the loss in the Super Bowl, Warner would break his finger and begin what many assumed would be his final, downward spiral. Between 2002-2003 Warner would play in just 9 games in two seasons, throwing 12 picks and just 4 touchdowns. His poor play allowed Marc Bulger to claim the starting role, and Warner was never able to wrestle it back. At the end of 2003, Warner was cut by the St. Louis Rams.

Deflated and defeated, Warner would hold a clip board during the 2004 season as a member of the New York Giants and didn’t perform admirably enough to stave off the younger Manning from taking control under center just two games in to his rookie season. After just one year as a Giant, Warner would ask for his release and eventually sign to try and prove he had something left in Arizona. His MVP season of 1999 began to feel like a lifetime ago.

He had lost his job to young quarterbacks in the past. Marc Bulger became a two-time Pro Bowler. Eli Manning was a franchise guy the minute the Giants traded for him in the draft. Matt Leinart, who was coming out of USC as a heavenly regarded prospect looked like he was going to be the third young gun to surpass Kurt on the depth chart. It simply felt like Kurt was hanging around the game, collecting huge pay cheques while nobody had anymore faith in him. By the start of the 2007 season, Warner was 36 years old, a dinosaur by modern NFL standards.

Matt Leinart, however, turned out to be a bent nail allowing Warner to rise from a career that we all thought was dead. In 2007 Warner replaced a beleaguered Leinart and posted the best numbers of his career in five NFL seasons. With 3,417 yards and 27 touchdowns, Warner and the Cards finished 8-8 SU and just missed the playoffs.

Ken Wisenhunt arrived in Arizona in 2008 to rejuvenate the team and reinserted Warner as the head honcho under center. With renewed belief in his game, and a new coach to take full advantage of Warner’s talents, the Cardinals would finish 10-6 SU in the regular season and then demolish every shark who thought they were dead in the water during the 2008 playoffs. The Cardinals flew by the Falcons, preyed on Delhomme and the Panthers while clipping the Eagles before pushing the Pittsburgh Steelers to the envelope in Super Bowl XLIII. Kurt Warner, after years of toiling and frustration, had done what so many other aging quarterbacks had failed to do – he had returned to prominence.

The 2009 season began with the Cardinals and the betting detractors hoping that Warner wouldn’t succumb to the eternal clutches of Father Time, and Warner continued where he left off in 2008. Ending the season with an admirable 3,753 yards and 26 touchdowns Warner defied age must like his fellow elderly statesman, Brett Favre, and led the Cardinals to the divisional playoffs where they were bested by the Saints.

It’s amazing to me that I can write so much about a man’s career and yet it remains up for debate whether he’s deserving for the Hall of Fame. After all, this is a guy that went undrafted and unsigned by the NFL for five years after leaving college. This is also a guy who has been injured, or a backup, for half of his NFL career.

Still, can you negate these credentials: Super Bowl Champion, Super Bowl MVP, Associated Press NFL MVP (twice), Most Yards Passing in a Super Bowl (game and career), highest career playoff completion percentage (66.5%), Most Consecutive 300+ Passing Yards games (tied with Rich Gannon and Steve Young at 6), member of 300,000 passing yard club (fastest ascension since Dan Marino – 44 games each). Not in my opinion.

When we talk about “great quarterbacks” we measure numbers. How many rings do they have? How many yards did they get? How many touchdowns did they throw? How many MVP’s? What we fail to acknowledge in these debates is what makes a quarterback “great” largely because it’s an intangible element that we can’t attach to every single player.

Peyton Manning will be remembered for his staggering career numbers and his unearthly ability to dissect a gameplan and opposing defenses. Brett Favre will be renowned for his powerful arm, his uncanny leadership and his charisma. You’ll remember Steve Young for his leadership as much as you’ll remember Bart Starr’s resiliency and Warren Moon’s recklessness.

What allows Kurt Warner to stand in the Hall of Fame with those men, and what ultimately makes him great, is his ability to persevere against all odds. His career went to hell, rose to the heavens, fell from grace and then somehow rallied back in to the legends of NFL lore. We tell kids to “never give up on their dreams” and to “always believe in yourself”. For Kurt Warner, this is a lesson he never forgot and never relinquished well in to his thirties. Furthermore it’s a lesson that he never let us forget, and for that we should be thankful to him for a great career.

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Australian Open Women’s Final: Serena Williams vs. Justine Henin

Melbourne, Australia – Tennis betting fans are in for a real treat as Serena Willliams and Justine Henin gear up for their clash in the Australian Open final. Their encounter is set to reprise one of the best rivalries in women’s tennis and surely will set the tone for the rest of the term.

Serena Williams enters the match as the marginal favourite in the market, listed at -130 at BetOnline Sportsbook. Given the fact that Serena, the defending champion, was the pre-tournament frontrunner, she is deservedly given the edge.

Serena’s edge is only minimal as Henin weighs in at -110 to win outright. That has to do with Henin’s tight head-to-head mark against Serena, 6-7 to the better of the American. Henin however edges Serena on the big stage lifetime, having won four of their six encounters at a Grand Slam. In fact, had Henin not just come out of retirement, she might have been marginally favoured over Serena to win outright.

Tennis Betting Line:

Serena Williams -130 22½ O -125 U -115
Justine Henin -110 22½ O -125 U -115

First Set Line:

Serena Williams -125 9½ O -130 U -110
Justine Henin -115 9½ O -130 U -110

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Second Set Line:

Serena Williams -120 9½ O -130 U -110
Justine Henin -120 9½ O -130 U -110

Match Set Line:

Serena Williams 2½ O +130 U -170
Justine Henin 2½ O +130 U -170

Match Time: 03:45 AM Eastern Time Saturday January 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Trend: Whichever way you slice this match there is value to be had. These are two of the best players in women’s tennis so you can’t go wrong. Tennis bettors looking to back Serena will find her well priced at -130 and those looking to back Henin will fancy her at -110. Both bets are reasonable and promise good profits.

Now, I am just going to get straight to the point: Justine Henin is going to win in tight two-sets or three sets. Why? There are several reasons. Firstly, Henin has owned Serena on the big stage, which is no mean feat mind, and the mark counts even though Henin has not played such a high stakes match in almost two years. Henin beat Williams at the US Open, Wimbledon and French Open in 2007, arguably one of the best years in her career. This season, she is looking better than she did during that incredible year.

Secondly, Serena Williams looked laboured in her last few matches. She struggled against Azarenka and Na Li and she even struggled in her doubles quarterfinal match. Of course, Serena is unlike any other player and she is most dangerous when she looks vulnerable. This should be an exciting match so the value plays on the totals is the overs at 22 ½ -125.

I like Henin to win the first set at -115 and the second set at -120. Of course, Serena is tipped equally for the second set and if she drops the first set, she is a good bet to push the match to a deciding third set. On the match set line, I like Justine at 2 ½ Over +130.

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2010 Pro Bowl Betting – Prop Bets Galore!

OK kids. Lets ignore the fact that playing the Pro Bowl the weekend before the Super Bowl is the worst, and most poorly conceived idea since Michael Vick said "I bet my dog can beat up your dog." Make no mistake that I will be taking shots at the NFL brain-trust throughout this article, but if they are going to play a game, I am going to bet on it.

I suppose it makes some sense. If they were to take the best players and have them play each other, it would be the Colts (with Chris Johnson and Ochocinco) vs. the Saints (with Adrian Peterson and DeMarcus Ware). Which would actually be awesome, but then the NFL would be comprised of only two teams playing each other 16 times a year because every other team would not see the point in trying.

Such as it is, we do have a game to talk about. And I am happy about that, if for no other reason then I do not have to hear ESPN analyze what size pads Manning is going to wear because they ran out of other things to talk about.

NFC (minus Brees) -2, -110 vs AFC (minus Manning) +2, -110

I really can’t get over the fact that the NFL is going to have their version of the All-Star game without the best QB’s in the game today. Instead of Manning (Super Bowl) and Brady (injury) the AFC will start Schaub. Instead of Brees (Super Bowl) and Favre (injury) the NFC will probably start Rogers. The players that should be playing are either playing in a better game, or beat up from trying to get into the better game. It appears that the same people who thought to play this game the weekend before the Super Bowl are the same group of intellectuals who invented snake mittens.

First to Score (NFC -120, AFC -110)

As the NFL Moneyline indicates this is more or less a toss up. I like the pairing of Schaub, Johnson, and Johnson. Sounds like a shampoo company or a law firm. Either way, Schaub has an advantage over Rodgers because he has a deep target that is familiar. Rodgers has some deep threats, but the chemistry will take some dime to develop. Take the AFC to strike first.

Score in the First 6 1/2 minutes

If you take yes (which you should) it is playing -200 on the Moneyline. Playing a no (which you shouldn’t) is at +160. Even though these guys are going to play hard, they are not going to shut it down either. It is easier to play catch-and-run with people that you do not normally play with, then it is to formulate a defensive strategy. This one is a no-brainer.

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First Score in the Game

While both of these teams are going to want a win, this is an exhibition for the fans (all evidence to the contrary). They are going to take more chances then they would in a regular game, and settling for a field goal does not fit that particular bill. No one wants to see Dan Carpenter and David Akers on the field except their mothers. Take TD as the first score for -240.

A Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times (yes -200, no +160)

The combination of wide open offenses and ad hoc defensive game plans will culminate into a lot of back and forth scoring. Also, as I mentioned, if people wanted to see a bunch of overpaid players kick a ball all day they would go watch soccer. Field goals are the only thing that would allow a team to score three unanswered times in this game, and it is not going to happen.

Will There Be a Defensive or Special Teams TD?

Why not? After all, there are a few players that are only here to return kicks for touchdowns. DeSean Jackson and Jonny Knox for the NFC, and Joshua Cribbs for the AFC. Defensively, you have players like Asante Samuel and Ed Reed. If you were ever going to place this bet, this is the game to do it in. Yes is playing +140 and No is at -170 on the Moneyline. Take the yes, if for no other reason then it is the one real chance this game to see a good ROI.

Team to Score the Longest TD in the Game (NFC / AFC -115)

Another toss-up. I am going to take the NFC, because my first instinct was to take the AFC, and I am historically wrong about this. Which would make my pick the NFC, and more then likely wrong. I promise to bet on the NFC this weekend, which means you should bet on the AFC. Like I said…its a toss-up, and I will get it wrong. Bet against me on this.

This may not be the best game to bet on, but it is the second last game of the NFL season that you can. After next week we have about 8 months of cold turkey so binge my friends…binge. It is not like there is anything better to do. Unless you are thinking about betting on tennis, in which case, may i suggest that you switch to non-alcoholic beer and tofu sausages.

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Horse Racing Picks – Full Card from Gulfstream Park

Padding Your Bankroll: Thursday January 28

With Aqueduct dark on Thursday we will take another trip south to sunny Florida and make a visit to Gulfstream Park.

While it will be cloudy, windy and cold in New York, the turf course should be firm at Gulfstream Park, with partly sunny skies. By the time the Late Pick 3 gets underway, it should be a toasty 73 degrees.

Get out the sunblock.

Despite no racing at the Big A today, there are plenty of opportunities to pad your bankroll. Among the other tracks in action this afternoon are Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Laurel Park, and Santa Anita.

Aqueduct will be back in action on Friday after a four-day hiatus.

Like yesterday, three of our four races we are looking at today are on the turf.

The play of the day is a $25,000 claiming race for three year olds going a mile on the turf course. Our top pick Scottkeith’skitten will have to overcome a tough post to find his way to the winners circle.

The final two legs of our Late Pick 3 play are on the turf, including the eighth race, which is an optional claiming race with several stakes caliber runners lining up.

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The field of seven includes a pair of Group 1 winners. Celtic Princess won a pair Group 1 races in her native Brazil, and Savoir Bien, who is a three-time Group 1 winner from Argentina.

Today’s Play of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 6 Clm $25,000 (3:42 ET)

#10 Scottkeith’skitten   7/2
#3 Thisonesforelmo   4/1
#9 Big Blue Streaker   8/1
#11 Phoenix’s Force   10/1

#10 Scottkeith’skitten lost any chance of being in the mix last out when Leparoux had to take up and it appeared he might have clipped heels, losing all momentum on the far turn. The colt was the weaker half of a short priced entry owned by Ken Ramsey. His previous three starts all produced double digit length losses but those were all versus tougher, two of those efforts coming in stakes company. The colt makes his second start off a two month break for the high percentage Maker barn and I am looking for a better finish if he gets a better trip.

#3 Thisonesforelmo ships in from Woodbine where the colt is coming off a fifth place finish on poly for a $62.5K tag. His lone turf try came three back, a fifth place finish in the maiden ranks behind repeat winner Bear Tough Guy, who won the Grey Stakes (G3) in his next outing on Oct. 11. The Lynch barn is 39% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from the fake stuff to turf. He looks well spotted here dropping in for a $25K tag.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 3,10 / 3,9,10,11
TRI: 3,9 / 3,9,10,11 / 3,4,5,9,10,11

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Gulfstream Park:

Starting in Race 7: $1:

Race 7 Clm $20,000N2L (4:12 ET)
#4 British Banker, #9 No Flattery Needed, #3 Sailor’s Red Sky, #2 Fitzaslew

#4 British Banker invades from Woodbine and will be trying conventional dirt for the first time in his career. After a tough post and a wide trip, the colt only came up 3 ¼ lengths short last out against Alw-1 foes and should appreciate the drop in for a tag here. The local works are on the slow side, but this looks like a pretty weak spot and it appears he was facing tougher up north.

#9 No Flattery Needed made a good late rally but could not get by the winner last out in a runner up finish at Tampa Bay versus Alw-1 company. The colt earned the top last out speed fig in the effort and is in good hands with the Wolfon barn. Looks capable of handling the extra furlong and note Elvis is back on board, the jock having ridden this colt to a runner up finish three back at Calder in his first start against winners.

Race 8 OClm $100,000C (4:43 ET)
#4 Savior Bien, #6 Drop a Line, #1 Celtic Princess, #5 Wasted Tears

#4 Savior Bien made a middle move while caught in some traffic and weakened in the stretch to finish fourth last out at Tampa in her first start off a four-month layoff. The five-year-old mare is a Group 1 winner in Argentina on both dirt and turf, and figures to be fitter for her second start off the layoff for the Clement barn. She exits a tough race at Tampa, the winner Lemonette is a stakes winner and graded stakes placed, and the runner up Closeout is a graded stakes winner.

#6 Drop a Line makes her first start since last October for the Motion barn that is 23% with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The mare’s last three starts have come on the fake stuff and while she is just 1 for 11 on turf in her career, she has mixed it up in several tough spots. She was a good third last year in the Suwanee (G3) here on the turf course.

GP Race 9 Clm $25,000 (5:14 ET)
#5 Road Track’s Dream, #4 Star Emerald, #7 Gator’s Tracks, #3 Blue Hill Bay

#5 Road Track’s Dream invades from Hawthorne for the Canani barn that hit overall at a 37% clip in ’09 and has started six runners at this meet, with all six landing in the exacta. Last out this mare took on $18K claimers, checking in a good third while beaten just a length for the top spot. The mare has been working steadily since arriving in Florida and she looks capable of handling the rise up to a $25K tag.

#4 Star Emerald was not a factor last out when she was jammed in for $16K last out at Laurel Park, perhaps catching ground she did not care for. The mare enjoyed her trip to Florida last year, beating Alw-1 optional claimers at Calder, and then beating Alw-2 optional claimers at Tampa in her following start. She has worked well at Palm Meadows and I am expecting her to bounce back here with a better effort at a generous price.

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

SUPER BOWL 44: Pros and Cons on Betting on the Saints or the Colts

It’s poetic that these teams are playing in Super Bowl 44. Both teams started 13-0, unprecedented in NFL history.

Super Bowl Odds:

New Orleans Saints +5.5
Indianapolis Colts -5.5
O/U 56.5

The Colts were 14-0 and won home field advantage before they rested their starters to get ready for the playoffs. Their play in the postseason has shown that they were not hurt by resting their starters, which resulted in losing the final 2 games of the regular season.

The Saints ended their season with 3 straight losses. New Orleans was outplayed by Dallas and Tampa Bay, then rested its starters and lost to Carolina in Week 17. Pundits were saying that the Saints lost their mojo. That Sean Payton lost his magic. Clearly, they also are back on track after their 2 playoff wins.

Both teams enter the Super Bowl having eliminated all the "rust" questions that were asked before the playoffs began.

So now what do these teams have to do win their biggest game of the season?

The Keys for the Saints to win Super Bowl 44 are:

Drew Brees: There isn’t a more important player in the Saints than Drew Brees, he is the leader and commander of the team.

Brees is always careful with the ball and does not make mistakes. He knows how to handle the pressure and always finds the open receiver.

I don’t think there is a more accurate QB than him right now in the NFL.

Wide Receivers: A great QB can’t do his job if no one is there to catch the ball. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Jeremy Shockey and Robert Meachem are may be the best 4 some catching the ball in the NFL.

There is no defense in the league that can cover all 4 of them effectively while defending the Saints rushing game.

Sean Payton: talk about an aggressive play caller, Sean Payton has molded the Saints to his style, aggressive, fearless and surprising.

Payton always thinks offense first; do you remember how Kerry Collins looked amazing with the Giants in the AFC Championship game against the Vikings in 2001? Well that’s because Payton was the offensive coordinator for that team.

NFL betting fans should realize that the NFL has changed a lot in the past few years and Payton and the Saints deserve a lot credit for that.

The Saints even though have outplayed many opponents during the season but it was Payton who outcoached teams like the Patriots, Jets and Giants in the regular season and the Cardinals in the playoffs.

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The Keys for the Colts to win Super Bowl 44 are:

Peyton Manning: Peyton Manning is the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL and if he claims his second Super Bowl title he will have staked a legitimate claim to the throne. People may argue that talent that has surrounded him is more than Marino or Tarkenton ever had. Maybe you have to factor in the system, which he created from scratch and steered with the unflinching efficiency of a perfectionist. But all of this was made by design; none of it was a mistake.

Super Bowl Betting Tip: Manning’s two minute offense is when you must fear the Colts the most. The Colts beat both the Jets and Ravens with Manning leading drives and throwing TD passes in the final 2 minutes of the 1st half. This is devastating to opposing teams. If Manning does this against the Saints on Super Bowl Sunday bet the Colts in the 2nd half.

The only thing Manning has to be aware is of Saints Safety Darren Sharper.

The New Orleans Saints know it’s impossible to stop Manning for a full four quarters.

Fast Defense: Another key factor for the 2009 Colts that is actually similar to the 2006 team that won the Championship: their small yet incredibly fast defense.

The basis for the Colts D is for the first player to make contact with an opposing ball carrier is for him slow the carrier down until re-enforcements arrive. And that usually happens within mere milliseconds.

The Colts’ front seven is led by defensive end Dwight Freeney. Freeney had 13 ½ sacks during the regular season. He hasn’t recorded a sack during the post-season, but that could be because Freeney has been facing double-teams.

With Freeny double-teamed, this allows DE Robert Mathis to focus on pass rushing and Gary Brackett to keep stuff the rush.

With LBs Brackett, Clint Sessions and DT Daniel Muir concentrating on stopping the run, teams have been able to pass against them. The Colts’ have allowed 485 passing yards against them in the post-season and a 7.4 average.

And to stop Drew Brees’ passing game free safety Antoine Bethea will be roaming the secondary.

They have been here before: You trade experience for anything and the best players in the game know that. The expectations of a Super Bowl game are different. The anticipation is exponential. The big players on the Colts have already played it. The coaches have lived it.

Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Jeff Saturday, Ryan Lilja, Gary Brackett, and Antoine Bethea will know what to expect on Super Bowl Sunday.

In the end the only thing that remains now is the game. I have my money on the Saints and I suggest you to have the same.

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Aussie Open Prop Betting: Roger Federer vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Melbourne, Australia – Over and above the match tennis betting line on the Federer vs. Tsonga clash in the Aussie Open semis, BetOnline Sportsbook has rolled out a whole slew of fun props to bet on as well as developing futures market. Betting is already in full swing as punters are backing their favourite on the exchange. So if you haven’t gotten in on the action, here is a little teaser of what gems you might find on offer complete with tennis free picks to consider.

Set Betting

• Roger Federer to win 3 – 0 -110
• Roger Federer to win 3 – 1 +225
• Roger Federer to win 3 – 2 +600
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 3 – 0 +1400
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 3 – 1 +900
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 3 – 2 +1000

Tennis Betting Verdict: The favoured outcome is Federer to win in straight sets at -110 but I think we can all agree Tsonga is too good a player to be blown off court in straights. Therefore, the value play for tennis bettors looking to back Federer would be a four set win, which is trading at +225. Conversely, bettors looking to back Tsonga should probably move off Tsonga winning in straight sets. The price is large and the result unthinkable. This is F-E-D-E-R-E-R after all and I cannot remember when he lost a grand slam match in straights. You would have to go back six years to the French Open. Tsonga to win in four sets is trading at a lower +900 but even that might be a stretch. So, if you are looking for Tsonga to win, a five set marathon is the most likely outcome that would go in his favour, offered at +1000.

First Set Score

• Roger Federer to win 6-0 +3500
• Roger Federer to win 6-1 +900
• Roger Federer to win 6-2 +600
• Roger Federer to win 6-3 +300
• Roger Federer to win 6-4 +300
• Roger Federer to win 7-5 +900
• Roger Federer to win 7-6 +500
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 6-0 +20000
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 6-1 +7000
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 6-2 +3500
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 6-3 +1200
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 6-4 +800
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 7-5 +3000
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 7-6 +700

Tennis Betting Verdict: Looking at the market range the favoured outcomes are Federer to win 6-3, 6-4, trading at the lowest price of +300. While over in Tsonga’s camp, the more favourable outcomes are to win 6-4 or 7-6, offered at +800 and +700 respectively. There is a lot on line in this match, and certainly, in the first set. Both players should be competitive and as such, I am favouring the tiebreak in the first set, offered at +500 in Federer’s favour and +700 in Tsonga’s favour.

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Tie Break in First Set Moneyline

Yes +300
No -500

Tennis Betting Verdict: I definitely think there is a high probability there will be a tiebreak in the first set. It isn’t the market’s favoured outcome but I would recommend taking the Yes, trading at +300.

Tie Break in Match

Yes -140
No Ev

Tennis Betting Verdict: Given that, we have two of the best servers colliding in the game you have to believe they will hold serve at least in one set to force a tiebreak. The market agrees, favouring the tiebreak in the match at -140.

Double Result Moneyline

• Roger Federer to win 1st set and WIN match -350
• Roger Federer to win 1st set and LOSE match +900
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 1st set and WIN match +500
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 1st set and LOSE match +400

Tennis Betting Verdict: Federer to win the first set and win the match is the favoured outcome in the market, carrying a price of -350. However, two tough opponents – Andreev and Davydenko – managed to take the first set off Federer before he won the match. I think there is a real chance Tsonga will take the first set but will lose the match, which is trading at a reasonable +400. An alternative is Tsonga to win the first set and win the match, trading at slightly larger odds of +500.

Jo Wilfried Tsonga To Win At Least 1 Set Moneyline

Yes -160
No +120

Tennis Betting Verdict: Tsonga is too good a player not to win a set off Federer. So I would take the Yes, which is trading at a favourable -160.

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