Roddick and Almagro Match up Odds in the Miami Quarters

Miami, Florida – Andy Roddick is on pace to a second consecutive semi-final showing in back-to-back Masters events. Roddick finished runner-up a fortnight ago in Indian Wells when he lost to Ivan Ljubicic, an unlikely champion, in the final.

Although Roddick was denied a fifth career Masters Shield in the Californian desert there is no denying he is having a sensational season so far. He leads the ATP Tour in match wins 23-4 and he has one title on the season – Brisbane. His other highlights include a runner-up finish in San Jose (l. to Verdasco) and a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open (l. to Cilic).

Standing in his way of a semi-final berth at the Sony Ericsson Open is Nicolas Almagro of Spain. A match most expect Roddick will handle with relative ease.

Almagro is enjoying a standout hard court turn, by his standards. Almagro who is known for his clay-court skills has really raised the bar for himself during this back-to-back Masters swing. In Indian Wells, he reached the last 16 (l. to Murray on a retirement) and in Miami, he has gone one better, to the quarters. It has to be said though few imagine he would go further with A-Rod standing in his way.

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Interestingly, it will be the first-ever meeting between these two players. They have been around long enough to have met in tourney play but somehow managed to avoid it. This is most likely because, Almagro has never pushed deep enough into a hard court tournament to have had the opportunity of being acquainted with Roddick. Similarly, Roddick is no clay-courter and typically plays as few as possible clay court events on the term. His absence from clay-court events explains why he has had no occasion to go head-to-head against Almagro.

Can Almagro stare down Roddick on his turf – hard courts and home soil?

Tennis Betting Line:

Andy Roddick -4 -110 -700 21½ O -130 U -110
Nicolas Almagro +4 -130 +400 21½ O -130 U -110

First Set Line: Andy Roddick -400 Nicolas Almagro +250

Match Time: 03:00 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 31, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Roddick is a solid favourite at -700 to win outright and tennis bettors will be pounding those odds. In lieu of an attractive payout, tennis betting fans looking to back Roddick should consider the spread at -4 -110. Much better value there.

Almagro is a significant puppy at +400 to win outright. He is a long shot bet for many reasons and most are convinced he will not advance. Yet, he might. There have been some strange results in these last few weeks and there have been many underdogs to punch above their weight class. I seriously believe Almagro has the tools to beat Roddick. But I am not sure whether he has enough self-belief to do so. He has however been playing with more self-belief than I have ever seen from him.

Almagro is a good play to cover the spread at +4 -130. He can make this a competitive affair, just like he did against Tsonga at the Australian Open when he took the big-man to five marathon sets. I do fancy th Overs at 21 ½ -130.

Tennis Free Picks: Roddick should win this match but I wouldn’t be surprised if Almagro ups the ante and masterminds the upset.

Miami Masters Quarters Tennis Betting Nadal vs. Tsonga

Miami, Florida – Rafael Nadal has an excellent opportunity before him to clean up in Miami, where his peers have failed to cut the mustard. Most recently, top seed Roger Federer was sent to the exit queue, after No.2 Novak Djokovic and No. Andy Murray (the 2009 runner-up and defending champion) already filed past. This leaves Rafael Nadal as the highest seed still alive in the draw and the de facto short-odds on favourite to win the title.

Standing in Nadal’s way is a big threat to his title aspirations in Miami, World No. 10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman definitely has the skills and ability to beat Nadal on hard courts yet for some reason he hasn’t had as much success as most would have liked him to have against the Spaniard. The only reason behind this is mental. His game is fine; it is just that he can’t seem to handle the pressure.

Lifetime, Tsonga trails 1-4 against Nadal; his only win against Nadal was at the 2008 Australian Open semis when he beat Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2. Since then, Nadal has reeled off three consecutive victories against Tsonga.

Nadal is on the positive trend against Tsonga; his last win over the Frenchman perhaps the toughest as he stared down Tsonga in Paris, 7-5, 7-5.

Nadal will be looking to continue that positive trend and book his spot in the Miami semis. Naturally, Tsonga will aim to snap his losing streak against Nadal. Question is can he finally get back into the win column against Nadal.

Tennis Betting Line:

Jo Wilfried Tsonga +2 -105 +140 23 O -115 U -125
Rafael Nadal -2 -135 -180 23 O -115 U -125

First Set Line: Jo Wilfried Tsonga +120 Rafael Nadal -160

Match Time: 09:00 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 31, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Rafael Nadal is the slight favourite at -180 to win outright and an even slimmer favourite to take the first set at -160. Tsonga meanwhile comes in at +140 to win outright and at +120 to take the first set.

The tennis betting odds are delicately nestled within a few price-points of each other, making this a rather tight affair. And so it should be as both these lads have a real shot to advance into the semis.

Whichever way you slice this match, there is value. Tsonga is the more natural hard courter and should have the edge to win but Nadal has had more success against Tsonga, importantly all his wins are on hard courts against the Frenchman.

Tennis bettors looking to back either player can do so with measured confidence. It is a tossup and it comes down to which player will be the better player tonight. We won’t know until the match gets underway.

I think we can be fairly certain that they will go toe-to-toe and fight hard for the win. Therefore, the Over 23 -115 is my pick. In terms of the win, I have to go with Nadal. He is on the decided upward trend and getting better and better with each tournament. Moreover, returning to the winner’s circle means a lot to him. In that, is a certain kind of motivation that could prove to be unshakeable. Tsonga will have to play lights out tennis to beat Nadal, no other way around it.

Tennis Free Picks: Nadal in three sets

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Sony Ericsson Open R16 Betting Tips: Roddick vs. Becker

Miami, Florida – Andy Roddick’s spot in the semis of the Sony Ericsson Open is an almost certainty what with Djokovic out of his way in the quarters after he was dumped in the second round by an unsuspecting Olivier Rochus. The highest seeded threat on his path to the final four would be Nicolas Almagro, No.33, who only made into the seeded spot when Gael Monfils withdrew from the tournament with a wrist injury. That Almagro emerges in the quarters presupposes he were to beat Bellucci in the last 16. Should the Brazilian Bellucci manage to upset Almagro in the last 16, then it would be a matter of Roddick rubber-stamping that quarterfinal matchup with a win.

Before Roddick can look ahead that far he has the small matter of Benjamin Becker to contend with in his last 16 encounter. Benjamin Becker did Roddick a huge favour when he beat Ljubicic in the second round and backed that upset with a win over Robredo.

Roddick had lost to Ljubicic in the Indian Wells final last weekend and while he might have relished a rematch, I am sure he is not too fussed to have that out of his way, one less worry to contend with in the broader picture.

He can focus on Benjamin Becker entirely without any distraction and by all accounts, he should move into the final eight with relative ease.

Tennis Betting Line: Andy Roddick -1600 Benjamin Becker +700

First Set Line: Andy Roddick -900 Benjamin Becker +450

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Tuesday March 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Roddick is trading at untouchable -1600 odds to win outright and equally overwhelming favourable odds of -900 to take the first set.

Roddick currently leads the ATP Tour in wins on the season at 22-4 and has a title to his credit. His highlights include a runner-up finish in Indian Wells and San Jose and quarterfinal appearances at the Australian Open and Memphis.

Head-to-head, Andy Roddick owns Becker have beaten him on three previous occasions. The last time they met was at the 2009 Washington Tourney in the summer and the most convincing victory, 6-3, 6-2.

Becker is a significant underdog in this match at +700 to win outright and at +450 to take the first set. He has had an impressive run, by his standards alone, into the last 16 of the Sony Ericsson Open but I think we can all agree it is hardly likely to continue. Everything stands against him on paper as well, he will have to contend with a patriotic crowd out enforce to support Roddick.

Tennis Free Picks: Roddick in straight sets

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Sony Ericsson Open R16 Tips: Tsonga vs. Ferrero

Miami, Florida – Juan Carlos Ferrero has had an impressive start to the season and he is showing no signs of slowing down. Ferrero already raced to two titles on the season – albeit during the South American clay-court swing – and threatened to win a third in Acapulco, which would have seen him lead the ATP Tour on titles ahead of the Indian Wells-Miami Masters double. Bearing in mind Ferrero is now 30-years-old, with enough distance from his former world No.1 days almost to distinguish this later stage of his career as a second, separate career. His form has to be considered amazing and shouldn’t be taken lightly.

His early hard court swing pales in comparison to his clay court results and because there is such a disparity, some might hold that against him as proof positive he would have trouble from here on in the draw. Not sure, that holds water anymore considering he beat John Isner in the third round, a match that was a huge upset in the tournament.

He clearly has momentum on his side and if he continues the momentum he is enjoying right now, who is to say he will not finish the early hard court swing on a fine note.

His next match will be a stern test though. Standing in his way of a spot in the Miami quarters is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a player he has never beaten.

That sounds more dramatic than it really is because they have only met once before in Lyon (2008). Tsonga beat Ferrero rather easily then 7-6(5), 6-1 – granted, Tsonga had home strength on his side.

There will be no home strength for either player in Miami but they will certainly not be short on fans. Tsonga is a fan favourite wherever he goes whereas Ferrero, assuming the Americans will forgive him for his faux pas against Isner, should find support, at least from the melting pot of Spaniards and South Americans that flock to Miami.

Tennis Betting Line: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -250 Juan Carlos Ferrero +185

First Set Line: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -190 Juan Carlos Ferrero +145

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Tuesday March 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Most tennis punters would have expected a one-sided tennis betting market on this matchup I bet, with Tsonga the solid favourite and Carlos the significant puppy. Fact is, the tennis betting line as it stands is indicative of current conditions. I would have it slightly tighter but that is just my opinion.

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Tsonga has the slight on paper edge with a 1-0 H2H edge and the slim ranking advantage. So he is the market favourite at -250.

Fact is though his form has been suspicious. On the surface, it is good enough I suppose. He is 11-5 on the season with a semi-final run in Melbourne and Marseille and a last 16 appearance in Indian Wells last week. There was just one hiccup, a R16 loss to Ljubicic in Dubai.

Problem is though he is without titles on the season to date and some of his losses were rather disappointing. His most recent loss to Soderling in Indian Wells namely, where he went out in a whimper 3-6, 4-6.

Soderling is not the greatest player in my books but he made Tsonga look average. Why? Because Soderling has learned how to compete and with that attitude, the results seem to follow him.

Tsonga at times just simply doesn’t seem to compete. And that is what makes him a risky bet in my opinion.

Put against Ferrero, who at 30-years-old is certainly competing and relishing each-and-every moment and you have a real value bet.

Ferrero is listed at modest odds of +185 to win outright and to take the first set, he is a mere +145 puppy. I think both bets would be reasonable. Don’t you?

Tennis Expert Prediction: Ferrero in three sets

ATP Master Miami: Fish and Youzhny collide

Miami, Florida – Mardy Fish is enjoying a standout turn at the Sony Ericsson Open. He started with a straightforward billing against Leonardo Mayer in the first round, which he took care of in straight sets. His real coup de grace was to come next, in his second round billing against Andy Murray where just about everyone had him all but written off.

Bring on Murray said Fish and sure enough, he took out Muzz – the defending champion, no less – in straight sets 6-4, 6-4.

Muzz is still hung-up about the Australian Open Final where he lost to Federer in three wistful sets; it wasn’t the showing many expected of him, nor was it the showing he himself expected. He forgot to be competitive; he was disconcertingly out-of sorts…spilt milk…

In some ways though, that loss seems to have taken his heart away. Since Melbourne, Muzz hasn’t been much to rave about. Fish beating him was always going to be a real chance as such, in my opinion.

This is not to take anything away from Fish because he deserves all the kudos coming his way for that win and for backing it up with a win over Feliciano Lopez (7-5, 6-3) to advance into the last 16 and set up a clash against Youzhny. Bravo Fish!

Mikhail Youzhny earned his spot in the last 16 when he took out 19th seed Stanislas Wawrinka 1-6, 7-6(5), 7-5. Youzhny came out rather listless against Wawrinka but managed to turn things around in the second set tiebreak. He finally got the job done but he got a little bit of help from Wawrinka, who let us face it, isn’t a clutch player.

Youzhny and Fish are level 1-1 head-to-head lifetime but the mark is seriously out of date. The last time they met was way back in 2004, at the Athens Olympics quarterfinals. Fish beat Youzhny 6-3, 6-4. A lot has happened since naturally, making their clash in some respects a total and complete tossup.

Tennis Betting Line: Mardy Fish Ev Mikhail Youzhny -140
First Set Line: Mardy Fish -110 Mikhail Youzhny -110

Match Time: 12:30 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Youzhny has had a strong start to the season with two runner-up finishes in Rotterdam and Dubai. The first final he withdrew in the first set, giving Robin Soderling the title by default. In the second final he contested, he accounted exceptionally, taking Djokovic to three sets 5-7, 7-5, 3-6. It was his best match to date. Overall, Youzhny is 14-3 on the season and sporting a ranking at No.15.

Fish has always been known for his inconsistency and unpredictability. His ranking as such oscillates with his form. Currently, Fish is ranked No.101 in the world. He ranked as high as No.17 (2004). On the season, Fish is 10-6 ahead of the Miami fourth round; his highlights include semis in Sydney and Delray Beach.

Tennis Free Picks: Youzhny is the more versatile player and based on his skills and weapons he is the better play. Fish has home strength and the inspired run he is in the midst of to draw on, which could take him all the way. He did so twice in his career: at Indian Wells in 2008 when he finished runner-up to Djokovic in the final 2-6, 7-5, 3-6 and at Cincinnati in 2003 when he finished runner-up to Andy Roddick 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-7(4). This is a case of tangibles versus intangibles and bettors cannot be faulted for backing either player here. For my part, I quite fancy Fish. When he is in the mood he can be devastating.

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Sony Ericsson Open R16: Soderling and Gonzalez go head-to-head in Miami

Miami, Florida – Fernando Gonzalez, after a slow start against Juan Monaco last night wherein he lost the first set, turned things around to win the match in three scintillating sets of tennis. Gonzalez is one of those players that isn’t afraid to compete, go for his shots – go for broke, so to speak – and tee-off with his formidable forehand (one of the best in the business). When in such a mood, in the zone, he is utterly devastating. Monaco was certainly devastated after that marathon 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2.

On the back of that win, Gonzalez set up a clash against Robin Soderling in the last 16. A spot in the Sony Ericsson Open quarterfinals is on the line, to be settled by these two players and what a battle it should be if both players are on form.

Soderling advanced into the last 16 on the back of a routine win over Philipp Petzschner 6-1, 6-2. The victory was his second consecutive straight set affair at Crandon Park.

Soderling arrived in Miami on the heels of a semi-final showing at Indian Wells where he beat Murray in the quarters and lost to Roddick in the semis. Soderling is on good form ahead of his clash and with the momentum on his side, in the eyes of many he is the player to beat.

Tennis Betting Line:

Fernando Gonzalez +3 -130 +185 22½ O -130 U -110
Robin Soderling -3 -110 -250 22½ O -130 U -110

First Set Line: Fernando Gonzalez +145 Robin Soderling -190

Match Time: 03:00 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Soderling is the -250 favourite to advance into the quarters over Fernando Gonzalez, trading at mere +185 puppy odds. Soderling has momentum on his side and good form.

Gonzalez is a rarity on the ATP Tour, able to crank up the volume at will – regardless of form ahead of a tournament. Gonzalez skipped Indian Wells last week to help in Chile’s earthquake relief. Because he didn’t compete there were questions surrounding his form. He has proven that with or without sufficient match play under his belt, he is always a viable contender.

Gonzalez trades at +185 to win outright and he is well priced in my opinion for the upset. If he plays anywhere nearly as good as he did against Monaco, especially in the last two sets, Soderling will be in trouble.

The market implies this match is Soderling’s to win or lose. I would have the match entirely dependent on Gonzalez. He is a game changing player and at any given moment, he can shift the momentum his way. If Gonzalez is on fire, the match is his for the taking.

Tennis Expert Prediction: Gonzalez in straight sets

ATP Masters Miami: Verdasco vs. Cilic

Miami, Florida – Fernando Verdasco scraped by Jurgen Melzer in the third round on Monday, coming back from a set down to take the match in three sets 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-1. Verdasco looked to be down-and-out until the second set tiebreak wherein he turned the momentum in his favour. Melzer didn’t recover afterwards; obviously, he buckled under the pressure and couldn’t close out the match in the second set. That had to be playing on his mind because otherwise the disappointing note he finished on – winning just one game in the third, deciding set – is inexplicable.

Verdasco may well be pleased he is through to the last 16 but he can’t be thrilled about his performance against Melzer. His opening round encounter was against a lightweight in Dudi Sela and well he should advance over Sela in convincing fashion, which he did 6-1, 6-2.

But a win over Sela is nothing to celebrate really. Melzer was his first test and many were looking for him to pass with flying colours. To say he barely made the grade would be an understatement.

This doesn’t bode well for his chances against Marin Cilic methinks. His loss to Berdych at Indian Wells, 6-0, 6-3 comes to mind. And I shudder to think what might happen against Cilic.

Marin Cilic is the next “It Boy,” in tennis, singled out for great things. He is levelheaded, composed and self-assured on court, supported by the great Goran Ivanisevic, who is serving as a part-time coach during his American hard court stint.

Cilic reaches the last 16 on fine form. He beat Stephane Robert, a lesser opponent, comprehensively, 6-3, 6-1 and followed up with a convincing, straight set victory over Marcos Baghdatis in the third round.

Cilic looks like he has worked out whatever ailed him in Indian Wells a fortnight ago, causing him to unravel against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, 6-0 in the second set. Must have been an off day at the office.

Should he continue on the verve and swagger we have seen from him in Miami, Verdasco should be worried. I would much prefer and honest to goodness contest between these two though. They are certainly capable of playing high-level tennis. So, here is hoping they measure up to their billing.

Tennis Betting Line:

Fernando Verdasco +1½ -120 +110 23 O -130 U -110
Marin Cilic -1½ -120 23 O -130 U -110

First Set Line: Fernando Verdasco Ev Marin Cilic -140

Match Time: 03:00 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Fernando Verdasco and Marin Cilic are 2-2 lifetime; Cilic though has won their last two encounters – 2008 ATP Masters Madrid R32 6-2, 6-3 and 2009 ATP Masters Paris R16 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. That Cilic is enjoying a positive trend against Verdasco is the more representative mark in their series and sets him up well for their upcoming clash.

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Verdasco will aim to snap his negative trend against Cilic but if he brings anywhere near the level of intensity he showed against Melzer, not unlike watching the slugs racing in my backyard in the summer, he will be in trouble.

The market tips them on a finely, carved line, just a hairbreadth apart. Verdasco is the mere +110 puppy while Cilic the slight -120 favourite. Clearly, this match is up for grabs in spite of tipping ever-so slightly in Cilic’s favour. Because Verdasco hasn’t impressed me recently, I pick Cilic. Either result though would not be a shocker.

Tennis Expert Prediction: Cilic in three sets

ATP Masters Miami – Federer and Berdych collide in the Last 16

Miami, Florida – Roger Federer survived a stern test from Florent Serra in the third round on Monday. Serra challenged Federer better than most expected actually, bullying Fed towards back-to-back tiebreaks in a straight set loss to the maestro 7-6(2), 7-6(3).

Federer was true to form and prevailed in the big moments but he was at times rather irritable and grumpy on court. Clearly, he wanted to have the match over and done with before the bad weather wrecking havoc all morning in Miami took another turn for the worse. Perhaps he was on nappy-duty later that evening. Whatever the cause behind the impatience was, it cost him and almost dearly so.

Federer should be happy to have squeaked through but he certainly can’t be happy about the impression he left behind. One has to wonder how this will affect him, if at all, in his R16 clash against Tomas Berdych, ever a dark horse in any tournament.

Tomas Berdych’s camp will have kept a keen eye on the proceedings and taken note of Federer’s form. The Czech confirmed his spot opposite Federer with a 6-4, 7-5 win over Horacio Zeballos at the same time on Monday. Berdych and Co. have good reason to be optimistic after Federer’s shocking upset at Indian Wells a fortnight ago to Baghdatis and this recent turn about Crandon Park against Serra.

Head-to-head Federer leads 8-1 over Berdych so there is no optimism to be had on that score. Moreover, the bookies are not showing much support in the market, which is just more discouragement.

But all Berdych need be is better than Federer for the duration of the match, and these variables would be a mute point. Question is can he do it?

The last time Berdych had such a moment was in their first-ever career match, when he beat Federer at the Athens Olympics R32, wining 4-6, 7-5, 7-5. Since then Federer has rattled off eight consecutive victories.

Tennis Betting Line: Roger Federer -700 Tomas Berdych +400
First Set Line: Roger Federer -450 Tomas Berdych +275

Match Time: 09:00 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Roger Federer enters as the -700 favourite but his favourite odds have never been put into question as much as they are now. That he struggled to survive against Florent Serra, a middleweight– and that is being generous to the Frenchman – what are we to expect from him against Berdych, an undisputable talent in the game.

Definitely, some are of the opinion he will have another tough match ahead. The bookies don’t seem to suggest that though as they tip Berdych rather large, a significant puppy at +400.

Berdych has had enough cracks at Federer to have him sorted. At some point, you have to believe Berdych will have another moment against Federer. Law of Averages. No time would be better than now when Federer is clearly not in top form.

Tennis Free Picks: Federer is the smart play in the market but there will be a good chunk of bettors bucking the trend here in the hopes of another major upset and big payout. A small bet on Berdych seems sensible under the circumstances.

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Henin takes on Tennis “It Girl” Caroline Wozniacki in the quarters

Miami, Florida – Caroline Wozniacki (a.k.a sunshine) was dubbed in 2009 as tennis’s “It Girl.” The next best thing on the WTA Tour. The player to watch. La, La, La…

Of course, this was not just a media inspired buzz about a cute tennis player with sweet looks and a sunny smile (hence the nickname: sunshine. Get it. Cringe!). Wozniacki had some credible results to back up the buzz surrounding her. Most recently, she finished runner-up at Indian Wells, losing to Jelena Jankovic in a right yawn of a match.

When pundits and experts alike took the buzz to a completely new level of fawning and illusions (delusions, if you ask me), of grandeur it was a bit much, and although it is another matter entirely, I take issue with it and still do. It is relevant mentioning because methinks all this brouhaha is a bit premature and leads tennis bettors to read too much into it.

Wozniacki is a talented player – if a bit overrated (excuse me but I am not a huge fan of her counterpunching ways). The inherent weakness in that style of play was perfectly exposed by Kim Clijsters, an aggressive power-hitter and excellent ball striker, in the US Open final last year.

Now with Henin, looming on her course at the Sony Ericsson Open Wozniacki’s counterpunching ways will be put to the test once again and I do believe they will not make the mark. Again.

For all the good the talk about her has done her in other situations, they haven’t helped her in the market on this match. She enters as the distinct underdog to Henin a rather solid favourite. That should tell you something indeed.

Tennis Betting Line:

Justine Henin -4 -110 -350 20½ O -145 U +105
Caroline Wozniacki +4 -130 +225 20½ O -145 U +105

First Set Line: Justine Henin -250 Caroline Wozniacki +185

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Wednesday March 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Only on an off day for Henin could I see her losing this match. This match is hers for the taking. On her racquet. And if she wields that racquet with the brilliance that we all know she is capable of, Wozniaki doesn’t stand a chance.

In fact, Henin is a solid fave at -350 while Wozniacki is just priced outside of the +200 range, at +225 – a price-point within which she would have been a more tempting underdog. That the bookies have chosen to make her less so is indicative of the overall opinion: Henin is the smart play.

It will be the first-career meeting between Wozniacki and Henin. Just like the barely audible note she struck against Clijsters in their first-ever clash I expect she will strike a similar inaudible note here.

Tennis Free Picks: Henin in straight sets

Clijsters takes on Samantha Stosur in the Sony Ericsson Open Quarters

Miami, Florida – Kim Clijsters is one of three Belgians to have made the quarterfinals of the Sony Ericsson Open and she is a match win away from the semis. The other two are Yanina Wickmayer and recently returned Justine Henin, the latter would be a potential semi-final opponent for Clijsters assuming she, Clijsters survives Samantha Stosur in the quarters on Wednesday and similarly, Henin overcomes Caroline Wozniacki.

The tennis gods are shining on Belgian women’s tennis and so are the bookies as all three Belgians enter their quarterfinal clashes as the market favourites. Clisjters the most overwhelmingly favoured of the Belgian triage.

Speaking of Kim Clijsters, the reigning US Open queen, things have not been as happy-go-lucky in 2010 as they were last year, when she reversed her retirement and returned to action at the start of the American Summer, hard court swing capping it with the biggest prize on offer – the US Open title.

She did win the title in Brisbane at the start of the 2010 term, beating her old pal Henin in the final to boot, but she hasn’t had much luck since. Beginning with her Australian Open series that ended on a shocking note with a 6-0, 6-1 loss to Nadia Petrova in the third round to her recent turn at Indian Wells (more about that in a bit).

Back to the Aussie Open for a second: it was the first time in forever that Clijsters was baggled and destroyed, torn apart on court. Saying it was a bad day at the office would be disrespectful to Petrova, who was clearly in the zone – if that obsessed, almost scary look in her eyes was anything to go by – playing lights out tennis.

Clijsters might have carried the ill effects of that loss into her next event, the BNP Paribas Open, otherwise I have no explanation for her 6-4, 1-6, 7-6(4) loss to Alisa Kleybanova in the second round of Indian Wells.

Well, there is another possibility and that is a shortage of match play. Cherry-picking tourney’s certainly works for the Williamses but perhaps Clijsters is learning it isn’t as easy as it looks.

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Tennis Betting Line:

Samantha Stosur +5 -110 +350 19½ O -125 U -115
Kim Clijsters -5 -130 -600 19½ O -125 U -115

First Set Line: Samantha Stosur +250 Kim Clijsters -400

Tennis Betting Verdict: Having said all that Clijsters is installed as the firm favourite over Samantha Stosur in the quarterfinals and most tennis bettors are wondering whether she is smart play to make. In a word, yes.

Clijsters has been shaky lately but her shakiness has nothing on Samantha Stosur’s occasional mental lapses on court. As great as Samantha has done over the last year or so to improve her game and climb the rankings, there are shortcomings in her game, of the mental variety. Especially when coming up against big players for whom she has a healthy respect.

I am sure, like everyone else, she will have loads of respect and love for Clijsters. Dare I say it: almost too much and that respect might cost her. Stosur should still make this a competitive affair mind but Clijsters has to be able to capitalize on the weaknesses that pop up in Stosur’s game in almost every match.

There is a chance there are still some lingering effects of Clijsters recent woes. I wouldn’t be surprised if she had wishy-washy moments herself. That is why I think this match will go the distance and potentially the over 19 ½ -125 would be the right bet.

Tennis Expert Picks: Clijsters in three sets

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