WTA Monterrey Open First Round Betting Action

Monterrey, Mexico – Fifth seed Agnes Szavay and unseeded Polona Hercog are set to begin their Monterrey Open campaign today when they take on Julie Goerges and qualifier Corinna Dentoni, respectively. BetOnline online tennis betting market is already hopping with various tennis betting lines and odds on these matchups. So let’s get down to brass tacks.

Match Betting Line:

Polona Hercog -4 -140 -300 20½ O +105 U -145
Corinna Dentoni +4 Ev +200 20½ O +105 U -145

First Set Line: Polona Hercog -200 Corinna Dentoni +150

Match Time: 04:00 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 2, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: World No. 53 Polona Hercog of Slovenia enters her first round encounter as the -300 favourite. Supporting her cast as the bookies favourite is an 11-5 mark on the season made up largely of her recent run in Acapulco where she finished runner-up to Venus Williams, and rather impressively accounting for herself come to that, 2-6, 6-2, 6-3. Prior to Acapulco, Hercog picked up a minor title in Cali.

Corinna Dentoni is the +200 underdog, which should come as no surprise, even to her fans. The Italian ranks outside the top 100, at No.183, and though she takes a 7-4 mark into her first round match, the mark is made up of wins in the qualifying rounds of tourneys. She has only made the main draw once this season to date.

Tennis Free Picks: Hercog comes into this tourney with momentum and she should win this match handily. AT -300, she is the smart play. She is also a good bet on the spread at -4 -140 and on the totals, at Under 20 ½ -145.

Match Betting Line:

Agnes Szavay -3½ -125 -210 21 O -110 U -130
Julia Goerges +3½ -115 +160 21 O -110 U -130

First Set Line: Agnes Szavay -175 Julia Goerges +135

Match Time: 05:30 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 2, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Agnes Szavay is seeded fifth in Monterrey and she is an outside favourite for the title. Ranked at No.31 in the world, Szavay takes a 10-5 mark on the season into her first round encounter, which includes back-to-back quarterfinals in Paris and Acapulco. However, she retired from her last match against Hercog in Acapulco so she isn’t without a few question marks ahead of Monterrey.

Julia Goerges of Germany, ranked No.69 in the world, is a disappointing 2-4 on the season. She has been underwhelming in all events to date and frankly, she doesn’t look like she is on the verge of turning things around. Her struggles to win matches against lesser opponents are proof-positive of her shortcomings.

Tennis Free Picks: Szavay is the -210 favourite and rightly so. Even though she is questionable coming into Monterrey, whether any lingering injuries from last week might become an issue, all things equal, she is the better play. Goerges might make a match of it, she does seem to be able to do at least that against most opponents; where she struggles is to close out matches successfully. She could therefore be the bet on the handicap at + 3 ½ -115. The totals pick is the Under 21 -130.

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WTA Monterrey Open Betting: Jankovic begins bid for title

Monterrey, Mexico – Top seed Jelena Jankovic is the big name in this week’s draw at the WTA Monterrey Open. Her name is so big that most pundits expect her to win the title with ease. She is the bookies short-odds-on favourite to clean up, natch. But if there is anything, we have learned with Jankovic in the last year or so, it’s that nothing is certain. She seems to have lost some of the chutzpah and with it some of her shine, at least in my humble opinion.

A side note: I don’t believe she will have an easy time of it at all, winning the title that is. I am not saying she will not, certainly she can, but if she does, I think there are a few players along the way that will make her really earn it. Should make for some entertaining tennis in her section of the draw methinks.

Of course, it is a long way to Saturday’s finale. Jankovic has yet to begin her tournament, which she is scheduled to kickoff later today against Anastasija Sevastova of Latvia. Discussion about winning might be premature now. Should probably look at her opening match first, and wait and see how she begins her campaign before weighing on her chances for the title.

Match Betting Line:

Jelena Jankovic  -6½  +105   -1400   18  O -140   U Ev  
Anastasija Sevastova  +6½  -145   +650

First Set Line: Jelena Jankovic  -800        Anastasija Sevastova     +425

Match Time: 08:00 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 2, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Jankovic is the massive favourite at -1400 to win outright and advance into the second round over Anastasija Sevastova, who, in turn, is listed at discouraging +650 odds. Tennis betting fans should not be fooled and take Jankovic’s first round odds as proof positive Jankovic will have an easy match. Nor I might add an endorsement of Jankovic in the tournament proper.

The market cast is entirely based on the indisputable “on paper” edge Jankovic has over her opposite. Jankovic at world No.9 is the clear heavyweight and Sevastova at world No. 72 is the lightweight. That said Jankovic has been anything but convincing in her first few months of the season. She is only 5-3 on the year, most notably, she has yet to reach a quarterfinal of a tournament.

On the flip side, Sevastova is a relative unknown in the game but following her first few months, she is showing some promise. She has already been involved in some big matches recently against Dushevina and Radwanska. She beat Dushevina 6-2, 5-7, 7-5 and lost to Radwanska 6-3, 6-3. Both instances though different in outcome are good accounts for the 20-year-old Latvian and should not be taken lightly.

Tennis Free Picks: Jankovic to win outright at -1400 and take the first set at -800 are the popular plays.  I expect the tennis betting trend will fall in line to the tune of the market Pied  Pipers. I can’t argue with the logic behind it. Jankovic checks all the on paper edges and there is no reason to assume she will not win this match. However, as I mentioned above, Jankovic is not going to have it easy. She has made the mistake of underestimating the will and tenacity of her opponents on several occasions last year and this year already. If she does so here, I think she will have a battle on her hands. For that reason alone, I think there is value in Sevastova. Her odds to win outright are large at +650 and correctly, she would be a long shot bet. But why not take the risk on the off chance she might upset Jankovic. She is young and hungry and what better stage to go into the spotlight than a minor tournament with less pressure. Cooler heads might fancy the spread at +6 ½ -145. In fact, it is the favoured outcome in the market. On the totals, I fancy the Over 18 -140, also the favoured result.

Women’s Tennis: Monterrey Open Picks

Monterrey, Mexico – Slovak Dominka Cibulkova is a promising talent in the women’s game and we saw glimpses of that potential last year at the Australian Open (where she finished in the last 16, lost to Dementieva); and the French Open (where she reached the semis but lost to Safina). Where Cibulkova falls short on is on consistency and her lack of steady progress from tournament-to-tournament is what holds her back in the ranks.

What Cibulkova now has to do is find consistent form. Because if she does there is no doubt in my mind, she can be a top ten player.

Cibulkova got off to a modest start in 2010, reaching back-to-back quarters in Auckland and Sydney. Upon returning to the Aussie Open, the scene of her first breakthrough last season, she failed to replicate that performance, instead falling in the first round to Vania King of the United States 6-3, 7-5(5), 7-5.

She bounced back during Fed Cup week, winning both her rubbers for Slovakia against China. Seemingly, back on track, and full of promise, Cibulkova went to Dubai where experts, encouraged by her turnaround in Fed Cup action, had her tipped as a dark horse to watch. She fell at her first challenging hurdle, top seed Caroline Wozniaki. She went out not so quietly though 6-2, 7-6(2).

Cibulkova has a sweetheart of a draw in Monterrey. Though her path to the quarters is not without some threats, they are beatable threats and I feel she should deal with anything that would fall her way successfully, starting with Roberta Vinci in the first round.

Match Betting Line:

Roberta Vinci +4 -135 +200 20½O -105 U -135
Dominika Cibulkova-4 -105 -300 20½O -105 U -135

First Set Line: Roberta Vinci +150 Dominika Cibulkova -200

Match Time: 10:00 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 2, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: World No.29 Cibulkova is the favourite ahead of her encounter against Roberta Vinci of Italy (ranked No.58). BetOnline bookies offer Cibulkova at -300 to win outright and -200 to win the first set. Both price points are good and well adjusted in my opinion. In turn, Vinci is the modest underdog at +200 to win outright and +150 to take the first set.

Cibulkova and Vinci have never met at a WTA main draw event so this will be their first-ever clash. Both come on exactly the same form, 7-4 on the season. Whereas Cibulkova has two quarterfinal finishes on the season as a part of that mark, Vinci has several wins in the qualies as part of her mark. In view of these opposing components of the season mark, Cibulkova comes off the better for it surely.

Tennis Free Picks: The betting trend should fall in line with Cibulkova to win outright and certainly, she should do so. Vinci could make things interesting, especially if Cibulkova is struggling with form and perhaps even confidence. Which is probably why the bookies favour Vinci on the spread come to think of it, offering her at +4 -135. The totals are touch and go methinks but I fancy the Over 20 ½ at -105.

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Davis Cup Betting: Serbia favourites in the Futures market

The World Group, First Round of the Davis Cup by PNB Paribas is almost upon as the Futures markets are buzzing with props on the 16 nations involved. Serbia interestingly is marginally favoured, listed at +275, over defending champion Spain that carries a price of +300. I can see why in some respects the market cast is so lopsided. Two words, Novak Djokovic. Together with another few words, Rafael Nadal is out – for now at least from Spain’s national team as he is ongoing struggle with knee tendinitis continues in earnest.

But Davis Cup action is a team effort and not an individual effort. Just because Djokovic is the world No.2 player right now and after a title victory in Dubai should not account for such favouritism.

Take Switzerland for example, claiming world No.1 Roger Federer as a member of their squad. We all know how great Federer is, so no need to rattle of his list of accomplishments, but even with him on the roster, albeit a peek-a-boo appearance that it is, Switzerland has not won Davis Cup. The closest they came to the title was in 1992 when they lost 3-1 to USA and Federer did not even feature at that time. Wasn’t even on the pro Tour was he.

An even better indication of how little an individual can affect the measure of a national team is the rankings. Switzerland is ranked 12th in the standings and they have Federer – a player, arguably the greatest of all time (GOAT).

Speaking of rankings, Serbia, the short-odds-on-favourites (right?) to win the Davis Cup title are ranked 13th, that is a ranking below Switzerland. Spain are the top ranked team, followed by the USA, Russia, Czech Republic and Argentina – to round of the top five. The top four after Spain are offered in the market, in order of ranking as follows: USA +1200, Russia +650, Czech Republic +700 and Argentina +550.

Any tennis betting fan thinking the market is out of whack a bit can’t be faulted. I certainly think so. It seems the bookies are not fussed on the whole team aspect of the competition, rather they chose to reward outfits that boast top players with inflated odds. Don’t be misled.

Bettors have two options, follow the market trend or think outside the box. The latter is the method to the madness I would recommend. Look at the whole team roster, determine which outfit has the more balanced and complete team.

To do so now, surely Spain comes up with full marks. Featuring David Ferrer, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Feliciano Lopez, Tommy Robredo and Rafael Nadal. Spain has the most depth. Adding to the team’s shine is the fact that the first quartet of players are champions on the season already, accounting for five titles combined. Also, keep in mind, in 2009, the same group of players combined to beat Serbia 4-1 in the first round.

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In contrast, Serbia made up of Nenad Zimonjic, Janko Tipsarevic, Novak Djokovic, Ilija Bozoljac and Viktor Troicki, falls short on many scores. Firstly, Tipsarevic and Troicki are streaky players at best and not exactly clutch players, so if a tie came down to their performance it would be a tossup at best. Secondly, Djokovic, who I believe accounts for the bookies price hike on Serbia in the market and though indisputably a huge talent, has been largely unsuccessful when representing his nation. Last season, Djokovic went 0-2 in Davis Cup action. A hefty charge against his top pretensions indeed. The only point of strength on Serbia’s team is in doubles action, lead by Nenad Zimonjic who went 2-0 last season.

Switzerland, offered at the correct price of +1200, is made up of Roger Federer, Marco Chiudinelli, Yves Allegro, Michael Lammer and Stanislas Wawrinka. In 2008, in spite of the notable names of Federer and Wawrinka on the roster, Switzerland went 3-0 and in 2009, they went 1-1 overall.

Czech Republic, carrying a price of +700, finished runner-up last year. Most don’t expect Czech Republic to replicate what was a rather impressive charge, led by the two-punch of Radek Stepanek and Tomas Berdych, this year. Aside from these two, well- known, top 30 players that have represented their nation admirably the Czech Republic taken as a whole has many weaknesses, going by the names of Jan Hernych, Lukas Dlouhy… who? That is right.

The same could be said of the United States that is made stronger by Andy Roddick when he participates in a tie but severely weakened when he skips a tie. Roddick was the driving force in United States’ 2008 Davis Cup victory. Sans Roddick, the combined force of Blake and Fish is as exciting as beer coasters. Sorry. Perhaps Isner and Querrey, joining the team would add some pizzazz but even with them on board, USA would be long shots.

The dark horse of the tournament has to be Croatia, offered at +1000 in the market. When it comes to balance, Croatia has it. They have a big name in Marin Cilic, experience in Ivo Karlovic and Ivan Ljubicic, and untapped talent in Mario Ancic. Additional members Roko Karanusic and Lovro Zovko are the weakest links but that should not necessarily take away from the team as whole. Their run will depend on how hot Cilic, Karlovic and Ljubicic are as well as the calibre of the opposite nation they draw.

France and Russia, listed only a hairbreadth apart at +600 and +650, also have quality players on their rosters that could make a difference. Davydenko and Youzhny are both in form and they will be huge assets for team Russia. France’s Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon, Michael Llodra and Jeremy Chardy is perhaps one of the most well rounded teams, not unlike Spain. They had a disappointing turnout last year but could come together well this year.

Total outsiders are Belgium +10000, Israel +15000, Ecuador +17500 and India +25000. Middle of the table: Germany +2500, Sweden +4000 and Chile +5000

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