WTA Monterrey Quarters: Cibulkova vs. Szavay

Monterrey, Mexico – Slovak Dominika Cibulkova, the No.4 seed, was one of my dark horse picks at Monterrey this week, and I am happy to report she has come through for me so far. She is in the quarters, set to clash against fifth seed Agnes Szavay.

Theirs is the only billing in the quarters featuring two seeds, which means where it comes to favourites they have shown exactly why they are so.

Cibulkova began her campaign against Roberta Vinci and handled the Italian admirably, sending her packing 6-4, 6-3. In the second round, she came up against another Italian, Sara Errani. This time it wasn’t smooth sailing for Cibulkova as she dropped the first set but credit to her for coming back from a set down to take out Errani 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.

Agnes Szavay has had to face German opposition in both rounds leading into the quarters and she had to battle for each win. Julia Goerges involved her in a three set marathon from which she barely emerged 6-3, 3-6, 6-3. In the next round, Anna-Lee Groenefeld tested her with a 6-1, 6-7(4), 6-1 victory.

Tennis Betting Line: Cibulkova vs. Szavay

Match Time: Not before 05:00 PM Eastern Time Friday March 5, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Markets are yet to be determined on this matchup but no reason why we can’t have a little tête-à-tête, and determine the positioning scheme of these two players.

Cibulkova has the slightest ranking edge over Szavay, ranked at No.29 and No.31, respectively and hence she is seeded just above Szavay in the tournament. However the slight ranking edge is insignificant in the broader sense. Moreover, Cibulkova trails Szavay 1-3 lifetime.

That said, 2009 mark is more representative as it stands 1-0 to Cibulkova. Szavay took all three victories over Cibulkova in 2007 – a year in which Szavay reached several milestones and, in turn, Cibulkova was still very much a novice at the pro-level. Szavay has never tapped into that form since.

Last year, Cibulkova reached several milestones of her own, one of which was to reach the semis of a Grand Slam. This occurred at the French Open and interestingly she beat Szavay in the R16 6-2, 6-4, en route to the semi-final appointment against Dinara Safina that she lost.

I expect the bookies to come up with a tight betting line in this match as there is no one real deciding factor to tip the balance in favour of either player. As such, this match is a tossup. If I were to play with house money, I would back Cibulkova. I would also expect her to be the slight favourite (although I could be wrong as the bookies might favour Szavay because she is making her third quarterfinal in a row after reaching the quarters in Paris and Acapulco). If Szavay were the favourite my pick would still be the same; in fact, the value on Cibulkova would be that much more improved as her risk-to-return ratio would offer a more attractive take out.

Tennis Free Picks: Cibulkova in straight sets

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WTA Monterrey Quarters: Daniela Hantuchova vs. Vania King

Monterrey, Mexico – Slovak Daniela Hantuchova, the No.2 seed, is the highest seed still alive in the tournament, and with the dismissal of top seed Jelena Jankovic she is the de facto, short-odds-on favourite for the title.

Hantuchova reaches the quarters in relative ease. She took out qualifier Lourdes Dominguez Lino in the first round, staving off a late surge by the Spaniard 6-3, 7-6(6). She cruised against Kaia Kanepi 6-1, 6-3. Over all, she has been in good form in Monterrey.

Standing in her way of a semi-final spot is American Vania King. King battled Sandra Zahlavova for a spot in the second round, needing three sets to take out the ambitious Czech 4-6, 7-5, 6-3. She followed up with a solid performance against Julie Coin, taking out the Frenchwoman who had earlier ousted tournament favourite Lucie Safarova, in straight sets 6-3, 6-3.

Tennis Betting Line: Daniela Hantuchova vs. Vania King

Match Time: 06:00 PM Eastern Time Friday March 5, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: The market on this match is still not available but should be soon enough. The absence of a market though doesn’t mean we can’t discuss this matchup.

Hantuchova should enter this match as the solid favourite over Vania King. The statuesque Slovak, Hantuchova has a 2-0 lifetime edge over King, having beaten her at the 2008 Aussie Open R 128 6-3, 7-5 and the 2009 US Open, 6-2, 6-2. That Hantuchova has yet to lose a match, let alone a set to King, sets her up very well for their third career encounter.

Adding weight to Hantuchova’s odds (whatever they may be) is a ranking and form edge over King. Hantuchova, weighing in at No.24, is 10-4 on the season. Her highlights include: quarters at Brisbane, a third round at the Aussie Open and a R16 at Dubai. She also represented Slovakia in FED Cup action successfully, winning her rubber over Shuai Zhang of China 6-0, 6-1.

Vania King is an up-and-down sort of player and a lightweight in the game. Her tipping point came in 2006 when she reached a career high ranking of No.50. On the big stage, King’s best performance was a third round appearance at the US Open; she lost, ironically, to Daniela Hantuchova.

King arrived in Monterrey 3-5 on the season. In reaching the quarters she improves to 5-5. To continue her run and improve her score on the season, she would have to accomplish something she has failed to do twice before: beat Hantuchova. And because she wasn’t even competitive in their two previous encounters, it is a tall task for her.

Tennis Free Picks: Hantuchova in straight sets

WTA Monterrey Quarters: Cornet vs. Sevastova

Monterrey, Mexico – I suggested tennis bettors take a risk on Anastasija Sevastova and her large +650 odds in the first round, against top seed Jelena Jankovic (offered at -1400 favourite odds, as good as a sure thing in market terms). Logically, and with an overwhelmingly one-sided market cast, everything pointed against the wisdom of such a bet.

Thought bubble: Jankovic is a top ten player, a former world No.1, with a reputation for being one of the best grinders on the tour; there is no way she would crash against a no name. Or is there?

After giving it some more thought, dissecting some of Jankovic’s earlier matches this season, interestingly, I became convinced the aforementioned suggested bet had some basis in logic. It wasn’t so much a question of who Sevastova was and whether there was credence in her game, but rather a question of how well Jankovic would account and frankly, the sub-par item she has shown to be this season wasn’t going to cut it.

She has struggled something awful this season and more importantly, nowhere there was a sign a turnaround was about to happen. This made the possibility of an upset a real probability. As it happens, the upset came to be. Jankovic’s woes continue; Sevastova is making a name for herself.

Sevastova backed up her win over Jankovic with a victory over Iveta Benesova; impressively, Sevastova dropped only three games to the more experienced Czech 6-1, 6-2. She is now in the quarters, on the verge of a semi-final appearance but standing in her way is Alize Cornet, a viable challenger for the title in Monterrey methinks. Sevastova will have her work cut out for her.

Tennis Betting Line:

Anastasija Sevastova +1½ -110 +110 21½ O Ev U -140
Alize Cornet -1½ -130 -150 21½ O Ev U -140

First Set Line: Anastasija Sevastova -105 Alize Cornet -135

Match Time: 09:00 PM Eastern Time Friday March 5, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: The market is offering a tight betting line on this matchup, with Alize Cornet only marginally favoured at -150 and Sevastova the mere underdog at +100. What this suggests is the bookies are certain at all, which makes this matchup a bit of a tossup. We have Sevastova’s good form to consider and punching above her weight class to back it up. We have Cornet’s positive run in Monterrey and past milestones: winning her maiden title on clay last year. We also have the individual rankings of each to consider and interestingly, Sevastova is ranked slightly higher at No.72 while Cornet weighs in at No.84.

Tennis Free Picks: Sevastova has a real shot at making a statement in Monterrey. I like her odds at +110 to do so and seeing how convincing she has been to reach the quarters, I wouldn’t put a semi-final appointment past her. Cornet has the experience and therefore has the due consideration in the market but she has been struggling to find consistent form. Cornet to cover the spread at – 1 ½ -130 is a good bet though. The Over/Under totals are served at a high mark, 21 ½. If this goes to three sets, which it might, the Over is the good play and offered at Evens. The Under is interestingly favoured in the market at -140. Methinks this will be a nervy slugfest. Go with the over.

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