ATP Tennis Betting: Tsonga and Melzer aim for fourth round

Indian Wells, California – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Jurgen Melzer feature in afternoon action at the BNP Paribas Open. Tsonga and Melzer will be looking to make a fourth round appointment at the expense of Albert Montanes and Simon Greul, two surprising players to have punched above their weight class to reach the third round.

Montanes received a favourable section of the draw; therein lies his fortune. Greul on the other hand dumped tourney outside favourite Gael Monfils in the second round.

Tsonga and Melzer are favourites to advance and if the markets were to be taken at face value, both victories are expected to be straightforward. Indian Wells has proved to be anything but straightforward as the seeded casualties on both the men and women’s side of the proceedings mount.

Could there be surprising results in these two matches? Here is a look at the action currently available at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Tennis Betting Line:

Jo Wilfried Tsonga -5½ -105 -1200 20 O -110 U -130
Albert Montanes +5½ -135 +600 20 O -110 U -130

Match Time: 05:30 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 16, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Tsonga enters this match as the whopping -1200 favourite while Montanes is significantly disadvantaged at +600. According to the bookies Tsonga is your man. The Frenchman has all the on paper edge to support this cast, including a 2-0 lifetime mark against Montanes.

Tsonga is 9-54 on the season with semis in Melbourne and Marseille. His only hiccup a second round finish in Dubai to Ljubicic. Montanes, on the other hand, is 9-5 on the season; on a worker-like approach to the term with six tournaments behind him already. His highlights: semis in Auckland and Buenos Aires.

Tennis Free Picks: given everything, there is to know about these players Tsonga comes up with the huge edge and that makes him the likely bet in the market. For Montanes to win he would have to play a big match. There is little to suggest he can and that makes him a risky bet at +600.

He however is a good play on the spread at + 5 ½ -135 – the idea is that he will account well. I fancy the Over 20 at -110 on the totals as such.

Tennis Betting Line:

Simon Greul +3½ -125 +225 22½ O -110 U -130
Jurgen Melzer -3½ -115 -350 22½ O -110 U -130

Match Time: 05:30 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 16, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: The discrepancy between the favourite and the underdog in this match is less than it could be, with Greul listed at +225 and Melzer at -350. The consideration on Greul’s odds is more a function of his effort against Monfils, which was a great feat, indeed; although Monfils had a hand in his own loss, methinks. He let a first set lead slip through his fingers.

This is not to take away from Greul’s win and he deserves all the kudos for outlasting Monfils. Just saying if Monfils were more focused the outcome might have been different. This brilliantly segues into my next thought: Melzer can be unfocused at times as well.

As such, Greul is not without a shot in this match. I would even go to say he is the value bet here. Melzer should win and I get that but I cannot help but think Greul can take it to him and even take it away from him.

Tennis Free Picks: Melzer at -350 is the popular bet and it is a well-priced play as well. Greul is the riskier bet at +225 but he isn’t priced out of the market so there is a conceivable shot he would win this match. If we don’t agree here, we can at least agree it should be a tight affair.

Therefore the spread at + 3 ½ -125 on Greul is the attractive bet, as is the Over 22 ½ -110.

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Indian Wells Third Round Betting: Roddick and Blake in action

Indian Wells, California – American hopefuls Andy Roddick and James Blake will hope to give the home crowd something to cheer about when they get their third round matches underway in the Californian desert – a spot in the BNP Paribas Open fourth round on the line.

Roddick is set to take on Thiemo de Bakker, a lightweight in the game in terms of ranking. Meanwhile, Blake is set to go head-to-head against an exciting and very dangerous Nicolas Almagro.

Tennis Betting Line:

Thiemo De Bakker +5½ -130 +1000 19½ O -130 U -110
Andy Roddick -5½ -110 -3000 19½ O -130 U -110

Match Time: 06:30 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 16, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: The bookies are entirely confident Andy Roddick is the player to advance from this match, listing him at untouchable odds of -3000. Roddick has home strength to guide him through as well as top ten pedigree. The American also has the added edge of a 1-0 lifetime mark over De Bakker, a win he earned at the Aussie Open earlier this year. Roddick beat De Bakker in the first round 6-1, 6-4, 6-4.

There is no doubt in my mind Roddick is the better play. Question is how well he will play because there is no value in his outright win odds. Methinks he will put on a clinical performance. Here is why.

Dutchman Thiemo De Bakker reaches the third round with wins over Marcos Daniel and Janko Tisparevic. He secured both wins on outside courts in Indian Wells. This will be his first appearance on Stadium 1, the show court at Indian Wells. It will be hard enough to play against Roddick, let alone, under such intimidating circumstances. All this leads me to believe De Bakker maybe out of his league and outplayed.

Tennis Free Picks: Roddick -3000 | Roddick – 5 ½ -110| Under 19 ½ -110

Tennis Betting Line :

Nicolas Almagro +3½ -135 +170 22½ O -135 U -105
James Blake -3½ -105 -220 22½ O -135 U -105

Match Time: 07:00 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 16, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: James Blake enters this match as the -220 favourite but tennis bettors should not be fooled. These odds are more a function of home edge rather than anything else. That said Blake has played well in Indian Wells and earned two good wins. Is that enough? You decide. For me it really isn’t.

Almagro is a dangerous opponent and a real threat to Blake. If Almagro takes it to Blake, anywhere near the manner in which he took it to Tsonga in Melbourne Blake will have a real battle on his hands. One in which the winner will be hard to pick.

Tennis Free Picks: Almagro +170 | Blake – 3 ½ -105| Over 22 ½ -135

WTA Indian Wells Fourth Round: Wickmayer vs. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez

Indian Wells, California – Most did not anticipate Yanina Wickmayer, one of a four-strong Belgian representation at Indian Wells that included reigning US Open champion Kim Clijsters and 2010 Aussie Open runner-up Justine Henin, to be the left standing at this early stage alone, beyond their shadow. That is not to say she was not expected to have a good tournament or to advance deep. It is just that she rather than her formidable compatriots is still alive in the last 16 and with a chance to continue her bid at Indian Wells.

Belgian hopes rest with this up-and-coming 20-yearold from Lier, Belgium. Wickmayer will battle for a spot in the quarterfinals against Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez of Spain. The match is decidedly hers to win or lose. Martinez Sanchez is bolstered by a big scalp in the third round after taking out Victoria Azarenka. Repeating back-to-back huge wins might just be beyond her abilities though.

Here is a look at the tennis betting market on this interesting fourth round clash at the BNP Paribas Open.

Tennis Betting Line:

Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez +3 -125 +145 21½ O -110 U -130
Yanina Wickmayer -3 -115 -190 21½ O -110 U -130

Match Time: 07:30 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 16, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Wickmayer is the -190 favourite to win outright while Sanchez is the +145 puppy to win outright. Clearly, the bookies are not so convinced this is Wickmayer’s match to win or lose as I am what with rolling out a rather tight tennis betting line. They are of the same mind however that Wickmayer is the favourite – if her odds are a little conservative in my opinion.

Sanchez’s odds have been scaled down methinks because of her win over Azarenka more than anything else. I would have Azarenka as having a hand in her own loss yesterday. Her temper is legendary and frankly gets in the way of winning matches she should win. Azarenka should have won her encounter over Sanchez. That she didn’t is a credit to Sanchez however and I still give the Spaniard props.

This will be an entirely different match. Wickmayer is not as emotional as Azarenka, at least not in the same way. I expect Wickmayer to know the deal and get the job done. Which makes her my pick on the spread as well at -3 -115.

In terms of the totals, this could be a competitive encounter. Sanchez has nothing to lose really and should come out swinging. She could take this match the distance even or keep it a close straight set loss, either way I fancy the Over 21 ½ -110.

Tennis Free Picks: Wickmayer in straight sets

ATP Tennis Betting: Federer takes on Baghdatis

Indian Wells, California – World No.1 Roger Federer takes a 6-0 lifetime edge against Marcos Baghdatis into their third round encounter, and with it outrageously favourable odds to nick another into the win column against the Cypriot and advance into the fourth round.

Federer is making his first appearance since winning the Aussie Open late in January. Therefore, you can imagine the stir and excitement his return to the game is making this week in Indian Wells.

It doesn’t help though that he has been less than convincing so far. His second round match against Victor Hanescu showed some the same lack of focus we have witnessed on occasion in the last few years. He dropped his first-ever set against Hanescu and needed to go to three before dispatching the Romanian.

Some might point to the fact that he looked a bit match-rusty and others would point to the fact that he had been ill during his downtime and because of that, he was off form. But the why is not important. Fact is Federer’s matches are no longer the master class spectacle that we used to see on a regular basis and although we might see that from him from time to time, still we should start getting used to these less than exciting performances.

Question: is it cause for concern this week. Better yet, does it give Baghdatis a better shot at accomplishing something he has never done before: beat Federer? If he does, you can bet he will be a national hero in Cypress and there will be a parade in his honour, maybe even a stamp made to commemorate the moment.

Tennis Betting Line:

Roger Federer -4½ -120 -1400 20½ O -115 U -125
Marcos Baghdatis +4½ -120 +650 20½ O -115 U -125

Match Time: 10:30 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 16, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Roger Federer takes a -1400 price tag into his third round encounter. Tennis betting fans cannot be faulted for taking that as an endorsement to bet on him. Of course, there is little money to be had in those odds so for Federer backers the value plays will be on his performance. We have mentioned his concerning form at Indian Wells so it might be a better strategy to take Baghdatis on the spread at + 4 ½ -120 and maybe even push for the higher totals at Over 20 ½ -115.

Of course, it was but a match and the first match of the tournament. Federer does work his way into match form during tournaments so he could very well come out in top form tonight. This would make the – 4 ½ -120 the correct option. Note how the bookies are offering both spreads on the same odds. It seems they are not sure which Federer will come out tonight, as are we.

Having said that I don’t know the match will be in Federer’s hands entirely. Baghdatis has lost often enough to Federer he might be done with losing to him altogether. At his odds of + 650, the bookies certainly don’t think so but I do in spite of these odds. Baghdatis has had encouraging moments this season, winning Sydney one of them. He is in better form than we have seen in a while – since his runner-up finish to Federer at Melbourne in fact four years ago.

But Federer is not the same and neither is Baghdatis. Since then several unlikely players have gotten the better of Federer – Mardy Fish, Julien Benneteau and Radek Stepanek – of the unlikely sort. Why not Baghdatis.

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WTA Indian Wells Fourth Round: Jankovic and Kleybanova aim for quarters

Indian Wells, California – Jelena Jankovic and Alisa Kleybanova will feature in late action at the BNP Paribas Open as the pair vies for a spot in the quarterfinals. Jankovic is after an unconvincing performance against Sara Errani in the third round – heck an unconvincing season to date, if you ask me. Kleybanova is after a major upset, beating the reigning US Open queen Kim Clijsters in the third round.

Both needed three sets to accomplish their third round victories and have had less than a day to recover. Fortunately, their opposites had a long day on court as well. Shahar Peer, who is gearing up for her date against Jankovic, needed three sets to take out Flavia Pennetta; meanwhile Carla Suarez Navarro also survived a marathon against Agnes Szavay.

All things considered equal where the third round is concerned, how will they matchup today. Here is look at the tennis betting market currently available at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Tennis Betting Line:

Shahar Peer -2 -115 -155 21½ O -105 U -135
Jelena Jankovic +2 -125 +115 21½ O -105 U -135

Match Time: 07:00 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 16, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Jelena Jankovic has been less than convincing in my opinion and I am glad to see the market for once agree. Jankovic enters this match as the underdog, albeit just barely so at +115 odds.

But she is exactly where she should be in the market. Peer, on the other hand, has been hot to trot lately and after some impressive results this season, namely a semi-final finish in Dubai. Peer is the correct favourite in the market, carrying a price of -155, and in my estimation, she is the better play.

Peer is also a good bet on the spread at – 2 -115 and for the totals I fancy the Under 21 ½ -135. I am thinking she is going to blow Jankovic off court.

Tennis Free Picks: Peer in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line:

Carla Suarez Navarro +3½ -110 +185 21 O -115 U -125
Alisa Kleybanova -3½ -130 -250 21 O -115 U -125

Match Time: 12:30 AM Eastern Time Wednesday March 17, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Alisa Kleybanova is after arguably the biggest win of her career in beating Kim Clijsters. The victory wasn’t pretty and featured an awful lot of momentum shifts but credit to Kleybanova for hanging in there, especially for coming back from love, four down in the final set tiebreaker to win the match.

Kleybanova enters her fourth round encounter against Carla Suarez Navarro as the favourite and well priced she is to take the win at -250. She is without a doubt my pick to advance.

I do like the spunky Spaniard Navarro though and I think she will battle her way through this match. As such, there is value on her spread odds, at +3 ½ -110 (it also covers the possibility if she were to put paid on my pick).

Kleybanova has the bigger weapons and if she uses them to effect, she should go through in straight sets. The Under 21 -125 is the totals bet I would recommend.

Tennis Free Picks: Kleybanova in straight sets > > JOIN TO BET!