ATP Indian Wells R16 Picks: Djokovic vs. Ljubicic

Indian Wells, California – Serbian Novak Djokovic is the highest seed alive at Indian Wells going into the last 16 after the massive upset of Roger Federer by Marcos Baghdatis last night. Djokovic is now the de facto short-odds-on favourite to win the title, according to ranking and seeding. Some would Andy Murray though as the outright favourite for the title. Noticeably absent in the discussion is the defending champion himself, Rafael Nadal who happens to be active in the proceedings as well. But that is another matter entirely.

Back to Djokovic. Djokovic opens his bid for a spot in the quarterfinals against Croatian, Ivan Ljubicic early this afternoon. It will be the pair’s seventh career meeting.

Djokovic leads the series convincingly, 5-1. In fact, the last, and only time, Ljubicic beat Djokovic was in 2006 in Zagreb (carpet). Ljubicic earned a hard fought victory at the time, 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-4. Since then, Ljubicic has lost five in a row to Djokovic, barely even making a dent in the Serbian’s game. He won only one of 11 sets played.

Naturally, Djokovic enters this match as the overwhelming favourite to win outright. Backing his odds is a positive mark on the season at 15-2, which includes the Dubai title. Over and above his season, there are the intangibles. Djokovic, in my opinion, has matured into a decent competitor. Last year, for me, he seemed to be short on confidence and self-belief, which became increasingly apparent in clutch matches when he would seem to inexplicably wilt away in crucial matches after playing superbly in the earlier rounds of a tournament, against lesser opponents. Case-and-point: Djokovic has not had an easy ride into the last 16 and at one point even looked to be on his way out; Kohlschreiber had several match points against him. Somehow, Djokovic dug deep and pulled off the victory. This was not always the case last season.

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Having said all that I don’t mean to diminish Ljubicic and his chances in this match. True, he has lost five in a row to Djokovic and there is little to suggest he might snap that negative trend. There was nothing tangible to suggest Baghdatis would snap a six-matching losing streak against Federer but he did, didn’t he. Indian Wells has done its best to defy the market and deliver upsets. It stands to reason the tournament is not done doing so, no.

Tennis Betting Line :

Ivan Ljubicic +3½ -115 +235 22½ O -130 U -110
Novak Djokovic -3½ -125 -375 22½ O -130 U -110

First Set Line: Ivan Ljubicic +185 Novak Djokovic -250

Match time: 04:30 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 17, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Tennis betting fans looking to back Djokovic will find him listed at favourable -375 odds to win outright. He is the firm favourite but he is not an untouchable favourite. Ljubicic comes in at rather mere odds of +235, well within a reasonable range to suggest he has a theoretical chance and give fans some confidence if they are looking to buck the trend. For more conservative minded players, looking to cover both ends, Ljubicic on the spread at + 3 ½ -115 might be your best bet.

The first set is trading at tempting odds on Ljubicic at +185 and this could be the best bet on the Croatian veteran. He certainly has a shot at the very least to nick a set off Djokovic. Towards the business end of last season, he notched wins over top players such as Monfils and Verdasco and almost Nadal, when he had the Spaniard on the ropes at Shanghai.

Ljubicic is still relevant in the game and more importantly, he plays with pride. I think he can make a match of it so the Overs are attractive at 22 ½ -130. It is the favoured outcome in the market.

Indian Wells R16: Berdych and Baghdatis aim for quarters

Indian Wells, California – Tomas Berdych and Marcos Baghdatis aim to book a quarterfinal spot at the BNP Paribas Open when they get their last 16 encounters underway against Viktor Troicki and Tommy Robredo, respectively. Here is a look at their matchups, complete with BetOnline tennis betting markets currently available.

Tennis Betting Line:

Viktor Troicki +3½ -110 +200 22½ O -110 U -130
Tomas Berdych -3½ -130 -300 22½ O -110 U -130

First Set Line: Viktor Troicki +150 Tomas Berdych -200

Match time: 06:00 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 17, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Tomas Berdych enters this match as the -300 favourite to win outright and you have to believe he should win this match after his convincing performances in the early rounds; namely, his clinical destruction of Fernando Verdasco in the third round, 6-0, 6-3. All this makes Berdych a good bet.

What makes him a risky play, something that I always refer to, is his inconsistency. It would not be surprising to see Berdych tank after such a master class performance. He has done it before and it is rather inexplicable. He is the enigma in tennis.

Troicki has value as the +200 underdog and definitely a chance to upset Berdych, especially if the Czech suffers one his mysterious brain cramps.

Having said that I still believe Berdych is the better bet in this match. Both players are one-trick ponies in my opinion but Berdych is the more devastating of the two when he is on.

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Tennis Free Picks: Berdych in three sets

Tennis Betting Line:

Marcos Baghdatis -3 -115 -220 22½ O -110 U -130
Tommy Robredo +3 -125 +170 22½ O -110 U -130

First Set Line: Marcos Baghdatis -180 Tommy Robredo +140

Match time: 07:30 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 17, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Marcos Baghdatis is after the biggest win of his career, beating Federer 5-7, 7-6, 7-6 in the third round. Typically, after such a performance players come out flat the next day. It is the way of highs to be followed by lows immediately afterwards.

That said I still believe Baghdatis is the better play in this match because the quality of his opponent is not up to scratch. Robredo for all his wonderful results and achievements in his career is beatable. Baghdatis is also in my opinion the more complete player on hard courts.

Baghdatis is the -220 favourite, a firm favourite and well priced. Robredo is given consideration with mere underdog odds of +170. Both bets would be reasonable plays and tennis bettors could not be faulted for backing either player.

However, if I were playing with house money I would back Baghdatis on the win at -220 and take Robredo on the spread at + 3 -125 just in case the curse of big wins does actually factor against Baghdatis.

Tennis Free Picks: Baghdatis in straight set

Indian Wells Tennis Betting: Murray vs. Almagro

Indian Wells, California – Andy Murray will draw from the depths of his fiery Scottish being to avoid the upset bug that is plaguing the BNP Paribas Open when he takes on Nicolas Almagro in the fourth round.

Many have Andy Murray as the short-odds-on favourite to win the title, over world No.2 Novak Djokovic (the highest seed alive in the tournament) and world No.3 Rafael Nadal (the defending champion). You can imagine what a shocker it would be if Andy Murray were to follow in Roger Federer’s footsteps tonight.

Or will it? Be a shocker I mean. Murray and Almagro are 1-1 head-to-head lifetime so in terms of how they stack up the odds are 50/50 either would advance. Of course, Murray has the more recent win and the more relevant win on hard courts. That gives him the upper hand here. There is also the significant ranking edge over Almagro to consider. Murray is world No.4, Almagro world No.40.

Almagro has been impressive lately; I particularly like the manner in which he conducts himself on court these days. Almagro has the look of a player that believes. His game has improved in proportion to that belief. He always had the game he just never seemed to believe in himself so much. That is huge and could have a direct impact on the outcome of this match. Tennis aficionados will tell you the match is decided in the locker room most times. There is a difference when a player leaves the locker room believing he can win and when a player comes out full of doubt.

Tennis Betting Line:

Andrew Murray -4½ -115 -800 20½ O -135 U -105
Nicolas Almagro +4½ -125 +425 20½ O -135 U -105

First Set Line: Andrew Murray -500 Nicolas Almagro +300

Match time: 12:30 AM Eastern Time Thursday March 18, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Murray is the solid favourite trading at -800 to win outright and there is no doubt in my mind most tennis bettors will side with him even if the odds are pricey. I can’t argue with this trend because there are many things about Murray that support this trend.

I would maintain, however, that Almagro is a value bet at +425 to mastermind the upset. More so than most would think. The way he has played and how he has conducted himself in big matches against some heavy hitters this season leads me to believe he has a shot against Murray. At the very least, he is a good play on the spread if you don’t agree with me at +4 ½ -125 – the bookies favoured outcome.

Tennis Free Picks: Almagro in three sets

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Indian Wells R16 Tennis Betting: Roddick and Tsonga in action

Indian Wells, California – Fan favourites, Andy Roddick and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are gearing up for some big-serving tennis today at the BNP Paribas Open.

They will definitely need to be on top of their games, especially in the serving department, because they each have tough competitors to stare down in Jurgen Melzer and Robin Soderling.

Neither of these two, Melzer and Soderling, is a slouch, each having a conceivable chance to advance into the quarterfinals. Actually, in the Tsonga vs. Soderling match, Soderling is the market favourite to advance so a win by Tsonga would be a mini-upset according to the market. Where the public is concerned, it would be the popular outcome. Much love for the big-man J.W.

Tennis Betting Line:

Jo Wilfried Tsonga +1½ -115 +115 23½ O -120 U -120
Robin Soderling -1½ -125 -155 23½ O -120 U -120

First Set Line: Jo Wilfried Tsonga +105 Robin Soderling -145

Match time: 06:30 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 17, 2010

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Tennis Betting Verdict: Tsonga takes a losing 0-2 mark against Soderling into their match and the underdog price tag. Bookies are offering Tsonga at +115 odds to win outright. He is only merely disadvantaged and that is a function of the negative head-to-head as well as the slight disadvantage in ranking.

That said Tsonga is my pick to beat Soderling and advance into the quarterfinals. Tsonga for me has been more impressive than Soderling this season, and more importantly, he is the better player of the two. Tsonga has more weapons and he is the more complete package.

He just has to figure out a way to be consistent so that his ranking truly reflects his potential.

Tennis Free Picks: Tsonga in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line:

Jurgen Melzer +4 -135 +325 22 O -135 U -105
Andy Roddick -4 -105 -550 22 O -135 U -105

First Set Line: Jurgen Melzer +225 Andy Roddick -350

Match time: 10:30 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 17, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Home favourite, Andy Roddick takes a 9-0 edge against Melzer into their last 16 encounter, an edge that makes him a considerable favourite to improve to 10-0 tonight. However, there is a nervous trepidation in the market regarding this encounter.

Melzer has been on form since the start of the season and playing better than many have seen him since arguably his junior days when he was touted a promising talent. Moreover, there seems to be an upset epidemic at the BNP Paribas Open. Roddick will have to be mindful of both and not take his convincing mark for granted.

At -550, he is a good play to advance and I would recommend backing him for the win. Where Melzer offers obvious value in my opinion is on the spread at +4 -135. He can make this an interesting contest and a tough battle. As such, the Over 22 -135 would also fall in line.

The actual upset, beating Roddick, which is trading at +325, is not exactly a hallucinatory bet but I think it will be tough to do on home soil.

Tennis Free Picks: Roddick in three sets