ATP Indian Wells Semis: Nadal vs. Ljubicic

Indian Wells, California – Ivan Ljubicic’s run into the semis at the BNP Paribas Open is a feel good story that has to touch tennis bettors and experts alike. The 31-year-old Croatian, once a top five player at world No.3, has defied all the odds, and age, to book his place in the final four of a Masters Series event; his reward a clash against the defending champion, Rafael Nadal.

Ljubicic has never won a Masters Series event. Thrice in his career, he threatened to do so but finished runner-up instead – Miami (2006), Paris (2005) and Madrid (2005).

You have to believe that at his age he won’t get many more opportunities to reach the premier match of a Masters. With such a fact weighing down on him in this match, it remains to be seen how well he will account. If he accounts anywhere near as well as he did against Djokovic in the quarters you can bet he has a real shot.

That Rafael Nadal is in the semis at Indian Wells is a feel good story as well and it should touch not only his fans but also neutrals alike. You cannot follow tennis and not notice the Spaniard’s struggles with injuries these last 12 months and some change.

At Indian Wells, there have been glimmers of Nadal, a la Aussie Open champion in 2009. He has been moving well, hitting the ball with his special brand of intensity and bouncing about court with youthful enthusiasm. A refreshing change from the wounded warrior he has been since last spring, willing his way through tournaments rather than winning convincingly.

Rafael Nadal is the likeliest to advance into the final and the market favours him well to do so. But I don’t think it will be a straightforward match. Ljubicic though disadvantaged significantly has a theoretical chance to mastermind the upset. After all, he topped Djokovic in the quarters, the short-odds-on-favourite for the title. That result cannot be taken lightly.

Tennis Betting Line: Ivan Ljubicic +400 Rafael Nadal -800

Match Time: 02:00 PM Eastern Time Saturday March 20, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Nadal enters this match as the hot favourite, carrying a price of -800; and tennis bettors can be confident he is the correct bet in the market. Nadal has been playing superbly in Indian Wells and quelling any doubt there might have been about his form in the first event back since Melbourne.

Ljubicic has risen above the field in Indian Wells with panache. He has beaten some credible opponents so he will fancy his chances against Nadal. At +400, he has an outside shot to mastermind the biggest upset in the Californian desert yet.

Having said that beating Nadal will be a real feat. What separates Nadal from the rest of the playing field is his confidence and tenacity. To beat Nadal he will have to outplay him from the first point. While I believe he will account well, I don’t see an upset here.

Tennis Free Picks: Nadal in straight sets

ATP Indian Wells Semi Final Betting: Roddick vs. Soderling

Indian Wells, California – American hopeful Andy Roddick takes on Robin Soderling today in the Indian Wells semis, a spot in the final on the line.
Roddick has had an impressive tournament to reach the final four but Robin Soderling will be his first and toughest test. There are those that are giving the big-hitting Swede more than an outside chance, especially, after he crushed Andy Murray in the quarterfinals 6-1, 7-6 (4).

I know, many were shocked by the quarterfinal result (perhaps still reeling as we speak), and now are looking at Robin Soderling with interest, and respect I might add. Not to take anything away from Soderling and his big win over Murray, he deserves all the kudos he gets.

However, fact is, I am not surprised Murray lost. In fact, I expected it would happen in earlier rounds but as it didn’t, I certainly expected it to happen against Soderling. Why? Because Murray arrived in Indian Wells completely underprepared for the tournament.

Murray was not match-hardened enough and dare I say it, not in the mood – or so it seemed to me. Didn’t he strike you a little more cranky than usual in all his matches?

Moreover, he has been a total flop since Melbourne. Seems meekly losing another Grand Slam final to Federer undid him this time.

Not harping on Murray at all (well maybe a little. I mean, Fo shame Muzz!). This is relevant to Soderling’s upcoming match because a) the Scot forgot to appear on court and b) Soderling did not need to do anything spectacular to beat Murray. Murray lost the plot all by himself.

Now pay attention, this is important. Roddick knows where he has to be on Saturday afternoon, so don’t go thinking he won’t make an appearance. As to losing the plot? There is no player more dialled in than he is (bless him). He wants to win a big title like Indian Wells more than anything else.

Tennis Betting Line:
Andy Roddick +1½  -115   +115   23½  O -140   U Ev  
Robin Soderling  -1½  -125   -155 23½  O -140   U Ev  

First Set Line: Andy Roddick    +105        Robin Soderling     -145    

Match Time: 05:00 PM Eastern Time Saturday March 20, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Having said all this it is with some surprise that I find the market favouring Robin Soderling. I believe this to be a function of his victory against Andy Murray, a case of reading too much into it. Soderling is on offer at -155 to win outright and -145 to take the first set -145. I can’t say he is not worth the risk. He did beat Murray and maybe I am not reading enough into it.

However, I fancy Roddick in this match at +115 to win outright. He has the home strength to draw from, but more than that, he has been playing really well in Indian Wells. He lost twice before to Soderling and each time he lost it was only by a handful of points. Keep in mind those losses came in 2008, before Roddick started working with Larry Stefanki and we all know how much better he is today under that partnership.

Buck the trend and take Roddick to give the home crowd something to cheer about. This time Sod man is not going to have it so easy. Roddick is not the sort to capitulate. Over 23 ½ -140.

Tennis Free Picks:  Roddick in three sets