ATP Miami Masters: Nalbandian begins campaign against tricky Kubot

Miami, Florida – The Sony Ericsson Open in Miami is an American event with a distinct Latin flavour. An essence David Nalbandian of Argentina can draw home-strength advantage from as he would if he were playing on home soil. Nalbandian needs all the help he can get in my opinion and not because he is in the early stages of his comeback after undergoing hip surgery last year but also because his opponent, Lukas Kubot (in the first round) might be tougher than most tennis buffs would expect.

The bookies are leaning in favour of Nalbandian – I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. He is a hard court guru (especially indoors), and he had long been the highest standard in Argentinean tennis (a significant stint in the top ten) before Del Potro usurped him last year.

However there are several issues going against Nalbandian and they are a) he is short on match play b) his fitness is questionable and c) the conditions in Miami are not best suited for his game – by this I mean the elements wind and humidity. Nalbandian’s hard court game is at its best when played indoors without the elements wrecking havoc. His flat hitting doesn’t adjust to swirling winds and other elements well and this causes him to have less control on the ball and more unforced errors as a result.

Kubot, on the other hand, is a clay-courter predominantly and as such, his ball has more spin. His ball can adjust to the elements better. Moreover, Kubot has really upped the ante in his hard court game this season and arrives in Miami on the back of some serious results.

The market disadvantages Kubot but not so much to price him out of the market, which leads me to believe there might be an upset brewing here.

Tennis Betting Line:

David Nalbandian -3½ -115 -250 22½ O -110 U -130
Lukasz Kubot +3½ -125 +185 22½ O -110 U -130

First Set Line: David Nalbandian -190 Lukasz Kubot +145

Match Time: 04:30 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 24, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: David Nalbandian is appearing in his third tournament of the season since launching his comeback from an injury at Buenos Aires in February. Nalbandian has tallied a 4-1 mark on the season with a quarterfinal appearance at Buenos Aires and a second round appearance at Indian Wells.

The market favours Nalbandian in spite of the fact that he has seen little match play to date. This is a function of his past marks and standing in the game and his prized prowess on hard courts. He enters this match as the -250 favourite to win outright and the -190 favourite to take the first set.

Lukasz Kubot of Poland enters this match on rare form, 11-7 on the season that includes a runner-up finish in Costa do Sauipe, a quarterfinal in Doha and a fourth round appearance at the Aussie Open. Kubot is the mere +185 underdog in this match to win outright and the +145 underdog to take the first set.

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An in-form Nalbandian would be without a question the smart play because when he is on, he can be devastating on hard courts. He showed just how devastating two seasons ago when he took out both Federer and Nadal in back-to-back Masters Events – Madrid and Paris. Because he is still rusty this match is not going to be straightforward.

There is also Kubot’s improved form to consider – albeit he has slowed down a tad since Costa do Sauipe in February. Further compounding this match is the fact that Kubot skipped Indian Wells so what form he arrives in is a bit up-in-the-air.

Regardless, I do believe he could very well surprise everyone just as he did in Melbourne. Last year, he shocked Roddick in Beijing when he emerged from the qualies to beat him in the first round 6-2, 6-4. He lost in the second round to Ivan Ljubicic but respectably, 6-7 (6), 6-4, 4-6.

Tennis Free Picks: Kubot in three sets

ATP Miami Masters: Americans Russell and Blake in action

Miami, Florida – Michael Russell and James Blake begin their bid for the Miami Masters title in the first round today. The pair is favoured to win their opening round encounters against qualifier Denis Istomin and wild card Filip Krajinovic.

On paper, these matches look straightforward enough and theoretically, both should come through on their market casts. But if there is anything, we have learned this month of madness that features back-to-back Masters Events is that nothing is certain. Upsets ruled in Indian Wells and there is no reason to believe that trend would not make an appearance at the Sony Ericsson Open. I for one am in the mood for more upsets.

Where Russell’s match is concerned, an upset is very much a possibility whereas Blake’s match it is distinctly an outside shot.

Istomin is a serious up-and-coming talent and only a mere puppy against Russell, suggesting that the bookies are well aware this match could go against the grain.

Krajinovic is a greenhorn hailing from Serbia. He is only 18-years-old and mainly doing the rounds in the lower circuits but without any significant results. That doesn’t mean he won’t account well though. Realistically, he only need be better than Blake is for the duration of the match; and, with Blake enjoying a negative trend these days and getting up there in age, I don’t think it is so unthinkable.

Miami saw Novak Djokovic’s first-ever triumph at a Masters event (2007) and as such holds a special significance for Serbian tennis. This is not to suggest Krajinovic will sweep the tournament on some hallucinatory Cinderella run, but to point out that it has motivational appeal. The intangibles are what I refer to here.

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Far-fetched? Maybe. The popular expectation falls in line with the market, underscored by the fact that Blake is the home favourite and the Miami stage is huge. Both factors could be intimidating (most likely) for Krajinovic and see him wither away.

Tennis Betting Line:

Denis Istomin +2½ -125 +130 22½ O -125 U -115
Michael Russell -2½ -115 -170 22½ O -125 U -115

Match Time: 05:00 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 24, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: I will get straight to the point: Istomin at +130 is the value bet in this match. Russell is the favourite at -170 and he has home strength to draw from and an encouraging Indian Wells turnout by his standards to back him up; but he didn’t open his tournament in the Californian desert against an opponent nearly as talented as Istomin is.

Istomin enjoyed a standout tourney in San Jose, taking out Tommy Haas (No.17) and Philipp Kohlschreiber (No.29) before falling to Verdasco, in three sets mind, in the semis.

Tennis Free Picks: Istomin in three sets

Tennis Betting Line:

Filip Krajinovic +5 +115 +800 19½ O -115 U -125
James Blake -5 -155 -2000 19½ O -115 U -125

Match Time: 07:00 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 24, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: The tennis betting lines rolled out on this match are not surprising; they are unimaginative really, I mean they are in tune to the respective rankings of each player and their individual experiences. Blake is the whopping favourite at -2000 and Krajinovic is the outrageous puppy at +800. Nothing new really and is what is to be expected in such situations.

However, I will say that there is absolutely no value in Blake’s money line odds. For one they are excessively pricey to make the bet worth the trouble, even if he does win. Secondly, Blake has had mixed results this season, some good wins and some heartbreaking losses.

What is obvious is that at 30-years-old, he isn’t winning matches as easily as he used to in his heyday. An ambitious and audacious enough player could best him. The question is whether Krajinovic is such a player. There is really no way of telling as he is making his ATP debut this season against Blake.

There is a theoretical probability – albeit slim because it isn’t substantiated by anything tangible – he could mastermind the upset. I think it would be grievous injury not to throw some money on his tempting +800 odds. I mean what if, right? At the very least, I think he holds value on the spread at + 5 +115.

Tennis Free Picks: Krajinovic in three sets

Will The Eagles Really Trade Donavan McNabb?

Rumors seem to persist that Donavan McNabb is leaving the Philadelphia Eagles despite the fact that he’s still pegged as the starting quarterback in 2010. At the age of 33, McNabb isn’t showing signs of slowing down but the Eagles also have Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb in the fold. The baby birds are chirping around the league, and the Eagles seem interested in feeding them one of two quarterbacks.

Let’s face facts about McNabb and the Eagles first. Personally, I’ve never let him off the hook for Super Bowl XXXIX, a 24-21 loss to the Patriots where McNabb was caught puking during the two-minute drill and burning valuable time off the clock. For whatever reason, people seemed to vilify Terrell Owens for calling McNabb out after the game and you know what? He should have!

Yet it’s hard to continue to fault Donovan McNabb for that loss. The Eagles have been to the playoffs three times in the five years since, and advanced to the Conference Championship in 2008 where they lost to the Cardinals. This year, the Eagles have distant 16-1 odds to win Super Bowl XLV and considering the youth and inexperience of their roster, I’d say that’s about where they should be.

And this is the thing about the 2010 Eagles – they’re a very young roster. The oldest starter at a skill position is Brent Celek and he’s only 25-years old. It’s obvious that the Eagles are trying to move in to the future right now, which is part of the reason they cut stalwart running-back Brian Westbrook. With McNabb eight years older than the 25-year old Kolb, the Eagles would be hard pressed to ignore any opportunities to move forward given a promising package for McNabb.

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McNabb is a very good quarterback. His athletic ability and his natural talent are on par, or above, many of the current NFL Pro Bowl quarterbacks. The problem is that I don’t think this guy is a leader. He’s never taken blame for a loss, and up until a few years ago he didn’t even know a game could end in a tie. If he’s my quarterback, I don’t trust him. He’s simply not willing to accept blame for a loss.

The surprising part about this rumor is that the Eagles seem to be interested in packages that revolve around just a second-round pick. If they pull the trigger, it’s a clear indication that they’re moving forward with a very talented young nucleus that includes Jeremy Maclin (21), DeSean Jackson (23), Brent Celek (25), LeSean McCoy (21) and center Nick Cole (25). Putting Kolb at the heart of that team seems like a logical choice for a team that desperately needs to transition to a new era before their fans revolt.

All this talk would seeming leave Michael Vick in an awkward spot, but that’s not the case. Andy Reid took a flier on Vick because he seems infatuated, albeit slightly hesitant, with the Wildcat formation. Vick’s price tag is $5.5 million, but that seems like peanuts since the Eagles have so many rookie contracts under their belt. At this point the Eagles are caught in a decision of the future versus the present, and if they go with the former, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vick stay in Philadelphia to add a safety net of sorts to Kolb.

All this being said, which teams would be buying if the Eagles are indeed shopping McNabb? Let’s start with the obvious.

Minnesota Vikings (+1400 To Win Super Bowl XLV)

The Vikings are in a holding pattern as the Brett Favre Fake Retirement Tour begins its 2010 campaign. Brad Childress would be thrilled to have Favre back, as would the Vikings’ betting faithful but if he decides to take his khaki shorts and sail in to the sunset McNabb would be the perfect veteran for Childress. The two spent six-years together on the Eagles where Childress served as both a quarterbacks coach and an offensive coordinator.

The issue in Minnesota is Tavaris Jackson, the heir apparent in the purple and gold who everyone deems as a McNabb-type talent, with overpowered speed to compensate for the fact he’s not as big or strong. If Favre stays home and the Vikings move for McNabb, it’ll be yet another summer where Brad Childress repeatedly kicks Tavaris in the crotch laughing maniacally. Poor guy.

Carolina Panthers (+4000 To Win Super Bowl XLV)

It’s strange to think that the Panthers would be willing to pay Donavan McNabb all sorts of coin, and let Julius Peppers walk in the same summer, but the quarterback position is a very tough one to figure out and Carolina made a serious blunder by giving Jake Delhomme all sorts of moolah last year. Incumbent starter Matt Moore showed tons of promise last season, going 4-1 SU in the final stretch of the season but Carolina isn’t thoroughly convinced he can carry the team to the promised land.

Moore should honestly earn a crack at the starting position, but Carolina may feel pressure to please it’s demanding fans and the low ball price of a second-rounder for McNabb would be awfully tempting for an offense that still has one of the best running-back tandems and a star receiver in Steve Smith.

Washington Redskins (+5000 To Win Super Bowl XLV)

Dan Snyder and an uncapped year means disaster and hilarity for the media and guys like me, but Washington is on the down side of believing that Jason Campbell is really the future of the team. Would Washington rather pay a guy like Tebow, Clausen or McCoy through a lockout year or just waive McNabb? I mean Snyder’s an idiot when it comes to money, but he’s not an idiot. You don’t just stumble your way in to billions of dollars (trust me – I just got back from Vegas).

Buffalo Bills (+10000 To Win Super Bowl XLV)+

The sad state that is the Buffalo Bills needs a kick start and a veteran quarterback like McNabb might be the ticket that Owens wasn’t last year. McNabb almost certainly wouldn’t want to ride out his career in upstate New York, but if the Bills are desperate enough to make the most appealing pitch to Reid and the Eagles, they’ll land McNabb. A perennial playoff failure in a city that hasn’t made the playoffs in ten years? Sounds like match made in heaven to me!

Wherever McNabb ends up, be it with the Eagles or another franchise, it’s clear that his time in the NFL as a star is entering its twilight phase. Many betting sharps jumped off the McNabb bandwagon years ago, and the Eagles have been the last bastion to have faith in him. If they’re considering letting him go, I think it’s high time we drop McNabb down to second-tier status.

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ATP Miami Masters: Early Round Predictions

Miami, Florida – The ATP Masters Miami continues in the first round on Thursday when the top half of the draw gets underway. This group are vying for a spot in the second round and matchups against a choice of 16 of the 32 top seeds that received a bye into the second round. Some of the seeds included in this section are Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Robin Soderling and Marin Cilic to name a few.

Here is a look at some of these hopefuls in Miami that are vying to reach the second round for a chance to perhaps shake things up in Miami.

Tennis Betting Line: Victor Hanescu -250 Alejandro Falla +185

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Thursday March 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Hanescu is favoured to win this match at -250 odds. Recommending his price tag is on paper edge. He has a 1-0 edge over Falla, having beaten the Columbian at Wimbledon in 2008. Granted the mark is out of date.

Hanescu also has a ranking edge over Falla. Such close inspection reveals the edge doesn’t amount to much. Theoretically, Falla could have a good game against Hanescu and beat him; he is trading at tempting +185 odds.

But this man, Hanescu that is, took a set off Federer at Indian Wells. Surely, the guy that takes a set off Federer can beat a journeyman player (clay-court specialist) like Falla.

Tennis Free Picks: Hanescu in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Paolo Lorenzi +225 Juan Ignacio Chela -350

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Thursday March 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: This match is a complete tossup in my opinion and frankly, I have to say I am rather surprised the market between the favourite and underdog is so broad.

Lorenzi is correctly the underdog at +225 and compounding his odds further is a 0-8 mark on the season. Chela is not much better off with a 4-8 mark on the season yet he comes in with a rather generous price tag of -350.

Miami does have a Latin flavour so there will be loads of supporters of the Argentine in the crowd. This should see him pumped up to win. But what if Lorenzi finds form. He could.

Chela is not worth -350 in my opinion; had he been priced at -250 or even -200 I would say he was good value for the risk. As things stand, I would much rather risk a small bet on the puppy and his attractive +225 odds. Keep in my, when bucking the trend the results don’t always follow. Proceed with caution and risk only what you are comfortable with parting.

Tennis Free Picks: Lorenzi in three sets

Tennis Betting Line: Santiago Giraldo -300 Marcos Daniel +200

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Thursday March 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Brazilian Marcos Daniel and Columbian Santiago Giraldo collide for the ninth time in their careers. Daniel has the 8-0 lifetime edge over Giraldo but the mark is out of date and almost entirely made up of encounters on clay on the lower circuit.

Daniel is the underdog in this match at +200 and for good reason. His season has been slow to get off the ground; he is only 1-6 overall. There is also the fact that he failed to qualify for the event and only got in on a lucky loser pass when Gael Monfils withdrew. But he has never lost to Giraldo and that shouldn’t be taken lightly.

Giraldo is 6-4 on the season with a quarterfinal appearance in Chennai and a second round appearance in Melbourne. In February, Giraldo significantly slowed down with a tally of 1-2 in two events – San Jose and Delray Beach. The latter mark is representative methinks of his current form.Not sure, that he deserves to be the -300 favourite. Keep in mind he has never beaten Daniel and irrespective of surface that has to be frustrating.

Tennis Free Picks: Daniel in three sets > > JOIN TO BET < <

ATP Masters Miami: First Round Picks

Miami, Florida – The ATP Miami Masters gets underway on Wednesday with a whole slew of first round matchups that are already available for betting at BetOnline Sportsbook. The top 32 seeds all received a bye into the second round so you won’t find any of the big names such as Federer or Djokovic or Nadal in the market until then. Their absence from early action though doesn’t mean there aren’t eye-catching matchups to be had. The opposite, there are several and they offer some interesting angles for profit.

Tennis Betting Line: Mario Ancic -110 Jeremy Chardy -130

Match Time:10: 00 AM Eastern Time Wednesday March 24, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Mario Ancic began his comeback a fortnight ago at Indian Wells wherein he reached the third round before falling to Rafael Nadal. For a comeback performance, Ancic deserves some kudos. He opens his Miami campaign this week against Jeremy Chardy – a nice talent but in a terrible slump. At 4-7 mark going into the Miami first round, which includes a four-match losing streak to start the season off, Chardy is looking rather hopeless. The bookies seem to think not, favouring him ever so slightly at -130. Ancic’s delicate -110 odds appeal to me more.

Tennis Free Picks: Ancic in three sets

Tennis Betting Line: Marco Chiudinelli +140 Florian Mayer -180

Match Time:10: 00 AM Eastern Time Wednesday March 24, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Aside from chin wagging with Swiss mate Federer and not being too shabby on the eyes, Chiudinelli is a good tennis player as well. He has however struggled to maintain consistent form, or any form really, since returning to the ATP Tour after a protracted absence with injuries. Chiudinelli is an underwhelming 3-9 on the season and with such questionable form, it was only to be expected that he should enter this match as the puppy. However, recommending his mere +140 odds is a 1-0 edge over Florian Mayer, a victory he earned late last season in Bangkok. Mayer is 5-4 on the season – so in decent enough form. He is the bookies favourite at -180. Mayer though is beatable in my opinion. If Chiudinelli takes it to him he should be able to mastermind the mini-upset.

Tennis Free Picks: Chiudinelli in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Arnaud Clement +105 Guillermo Garcia Lopez -145

Match Time:10: 00 AM Eastern Time Wednesday March 24, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez arrives in Miami after a standout Indian Wells account wherein he reached the fourth round. Prior to Indian Wells, he had been in a slump and after his run, he still remains in the negative on the season at 3-6.

It remains to be seen whether Garcia-Lopez will carry the momentum in Miami or revert back into his slump. The bookies seem to think he will do the former and tip him as the favourite at -145. I would agree to some extent, I think he definitely will have confidence and that will help. Clement however is a tricky opponent. He shouldn’t be underestimated and at mere +105 odds, bookies have taken him as a potential threat to Guillermo-Garcia. This match is wide open but I still fancy the Spaniard.

Tennis Free Picks: Guillermo-Garcia Lopez in three sets