ATP Miami Masters 2nd Round Betting: Almagro and Querrey headed for a clash

Miami, Florida – Nicolas Almagro replaced 14th seed Gael Monfils in the draw when the Frenchman withdrew with a left wrist injury. With the move Almagro received the second round bye reserved for seeded players; the result he moves into a tough section of the draw, delicately poised on a collision course with home favourite Sam Querrey. Sam Querrey, the No.21 seed, is the favourite in this section to emerge into the last 16.

But before he can look ahead to a potential clash with Querrey, Almagro has a second round encounter against Argentine Eduardo Schwank to deal with first. Similarly, Querrey has an encounter against Frenchman Jeremy Chardy to prepare for first before he can look ahead to a clash against Almagro and a possible last 16 spot.

Tennis Betting Line: Nicolas Almagro -225 Eduardo Schwank +175

First Set Line: Nicolas Almagro -180 Eduardo Schwank +140

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Friday March 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Almagro arrives in Miami on the back of a good turnout at Indian Wells, where he reached the last 16 and squared off against Murray. The much-anticipated battle ended on a disappointing note when Almagro retired at the start of the second set, down 6-2 in the first, with an apparent foot injury. Naturally, the question is whether Almagro is fit for Miami.

Regardless of the fitness issue, Almagro is the favourite to win outright at the expense of Schwank. Almagro is 9-6 on the season, with highlights that include his Indian Wells and Aussie Open last 16 runs as well as a quarterfinal appearance in Acapulco. Interestingly, Almagro has done better on hard courts so far this season than on his favourite surface, clay.

Almagro is the -225 favourite in the BetOnline market while Schwank enters at mere puppy odds of +175. Lifetime, the pair is 1-1 with Schwank winning the only hard-court meeting between them in Metz (2008), 7-6(5), 6-2. That win is rather old and is not expected to have a direct impact on the outcome.

Given current form, Almagro is the better play. He is playing with confidence and his hard court game has seen marked improvements. Only if there were any lingering issues with his foot injury would I consider the upset.

Tennis Free Picks: Almagro in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Jeremy Chardy +225 Sam Querrey -350

First Set Line: Jeremy Chardy +190 Sam Querrey -275

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Friday March 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Sam Querrey enters this match as the solid favourite at -350 to win outright. There is a home edge component to his odds as well as encouraging form. Querrey is 10-7 on the season, with one title in Memphis wherein he beat his compatriot and friend John Isner in the final. Querrey is after a third round showing in Indian Wells, where he lost, ironically, to his buddy Isner.

Querrey takes all this and a 2-0 edge over Chardy into their second round encounter. He really has not excuse not win this match.

Chardy is a nice talent but he has been in a bit of a slump lately. He arrived in Miami 4-7 on the season and improved his mark to 5-7 when he beat Mario Ancic in the first round. Overall, Chardy doesn’t seem to pose a threat to Querrey, at least not as he is right now seemingly unconfident and unsure of his game.

Tennis Free Picks: Querrey in straight sets

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Ljubicic and Robredo on collision course in Miami

Miami, Florida – Indian Wells champion Ivan Ljubicic begins his bid for the Miami Masters title on Friday when he takes on journeyman, Benjamin Becker. Ljubicic won his maiden Masters Shield in the Californian desert at the age of 31-years-old and while it was a major accomplishment, deserving of all the kudos coming his way, pulling off the Masters double sweep is going to be a long shot.

Roger Federer is the only active player to have accomplished the feat (in back-to-back seasons come to that) from 2005 to 2006. But even for the maestro the courts at Indian Wells –Miami Masters double have been a bit of a Waterloo over the last few years.

Elsewhere, Tommy Robredo, the Indian Wells quarterfinalist takes on qualifier Illya Marchenko who upset Paul-Henri Mathieu in the first round.

Tennis Betting Line: Tommy Robredo -225 Illya Marchenko +175

First Set Line: Tommy Robredo -180 Illya Marchenko +140

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Friday March 26, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: I don’t believe this will be a straightforward affair for Tommy Robredo against Illya Marchenko. Granted the Spaniard did exceptionally well in Indian Wells to reach the quarterfinals and is expected to build on that result in some respects. But truth be told, he benefited from Federer’s downfall in the third round at the hands of Marcos Baghdatis.

The draw opened up when the world No.1 was handed an untimely exit. Instead of a third round match against Federer, Robredo faced Baghdatis. Although he did have his work cut out for him, and needed three sets to take out Baghdatis, his chances against Baggy were always going to be better than against le Federer.

Robredo enters this match as the correct favourite at -225 while Marchenko looms as the mere +175 puppy. This cast is largely a reflection of their positions in the game today.

Yet Robredo is not the sure play in my opinion. There will be a lot of pressure on him to repeat his Indian Wells account. Add to that a healthy dose of anxiety when facing an unknown entity, as is Marchenko (it will their first-ever career meeting), and the sum total could be disaster. Hopefully his camp have done a good job of scouting Marchenko and have come up with a solid game plan. Because Robredo doesn’t have a whole lot of weapons he can use on hard courts.

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Tennis Free Picks: Robredo should theoretically win but I won’t be surprised if there is an upset here. At +175 Marchenko is a tempting bet to make.

Tennis Betting Line: Benjamin Becker +200 Ivan Ljubicic -300

First Set Line: Benjamin Becker +175 Ivan Ljubicic -225

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Friday March 26, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Ivan Ljubicic enters this match as a rather conservative favourite at -300. Ljubicic’s price is surprisingly understated, especially when considering the incredible fortnight Ljubicic enjoyed in the Californian desert and where he beat some noteworthy opposition like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic – just two mere top five players, I suppose. Nothing to it really.

There is also a 2-0 edge over Becker –granted a tad past its’ sell-by-date and the fact that Becker is seriously off form at 6-10 this season. Unless Ljubicic were to fall victim to the predictable lows that follow highs – winning Indian Wells would be such a career high in tennis that he could coming crashing down from and come out flat in his opener– he should beat Becker handily.

Tennis Free Picks: Ljubicic is still the smart play in my opinion. Becker could make things interesting but I think Ljubicic will persevere.

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The Intertwined Fates Of Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell

It all started at the 2007 Sugar Bowl in the New Orleans Superdome. JaMarcus Russell led his LSU Tigers to a 44-14 decimation of Brady Quinn’s Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a lopsided game. It was perhaps a telling moment of two quarterbacks touted as future Pro-Bowlers at the NFL level. Six months later both would be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, and three years after that everyone would still be waiting for either quarterback to blossom.

It was almost a second coming of the Leinart-Vince Young tandem drafted the year before. Quinn was an American heartthrob, playing for the iconic program at Notre Dame. Yet after the loss, the Fighting Irish’s ninth consecutive bowl game defeat, everyone began to question Brady Quinn’s ability to win a big game, an intangible which haunted him all the way up to the NFL draft.

JaMarcus Russell, however, didn’t have those problems. Riding the coattails of his three-touchdown game at the Sugar Bowl, Russell was drafted first overall by Al Davis and the Oakland Raiders. It’s a running gag now that Davis was impressed with Russell’s unreal athletic ability. Apparently, he could throw the ball 80-yards with one knee on the ground and this was enough for Davis to make Russell the highest paid quarterback ever to be drafted.

Since then, however, Russell has battled inconsistencies and the Silver and Black nation of Oakland’s betting fans have been calling for his head. Russell has thrown for 4,083 yards in three years, completing just 52.1 percent of his passes. Most notably, he’s averaging just 6 touchdowns per season (18 total in three seasons), which is completely offset by the fact he’s chucked 23 picks in his career. In the 2009 NFL betting season, Russell was benched in favor of Bruce Gradkowski and now the two will face-off in a competition for the starting quarterback job.

Russell’s awesome athletic gifts couldn’t curtail the fact that he was one of the worst decision makers at quarterback in the NFL. On the field he couldn’t digest what defenses were showing him, and his piss poor mechanics caused his passes to be errant and inaccurate. He’s spending this summer refining his mechanics a-la-Tebow, but old habits die hard and the patience of Raider Nation is wearing awfully thin.

Russell has a chance to regain his starting role in Oakland, yet the AFC West has a new arrival in the form of Brady Quinn.

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Brady Quinn was picked 17th overall and the memory of the boy wonder (at the time) sitting alone in the green room waiting for anyone to draft him is the real life nightmare of any NFL draft prospect. Taken by the Cleveland Browns, Quinn failed to impress his flurry of coaches and has played in just 14 games during his NFL career. Like Russell, his completion percentage is just 52.1 percent and he’s thrown for only 1,902 yards, 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions during his three years with Cleveland.

Also like Russell, Quinn is getting a fresh start but unlike his 2007 draft counterpart, Quinn has received his new beginnings by being traded to a another team. Now a member of the Denver Broncos, Quinn will be mentored by one of the best quarterback coaches in Josh McDaniels who’s best known for molding Tom Brady and Matt Cassel in to the Pro Bowlers they are today.

Yet Quinn will also have competition in Denver as he tries to wrestle the starting job away from Kyle Orton. If you’re a Broncos’ betting backer, then you’re hoping that Quinn can live up to his mighty expectations and become the next franchise quarterback after the fan base lost out on Jay Cutler.

Both Quinn and Russell still have potential. Very rarely do quarterbacks walk in to immediate success stories. For every Ben Roethlisberger story out there, there’s always ten other quarterbacks who took the average span of three years to evolve in to legends. Troy Aikman, Drew Brees and Steve Young are amongst those names. So between the two of them, which do you like to succeed?

I think we’ve seen about as much as we can expect for JaMarcus Russell. He’s made his money, he’s had his chances and he’s simply not an NFL quarterback. Quinn still has a solid delivery and is in a great place to rejuvenate his career.

They grew up miles apart from each other. They were selected 16 picks from each other. They’re life stories are totally different, but their NFL careers have suffered the same mistakes and the similar pitfalls. Now two players who crossed paths in the 2007 Sugar Bowl are sentenced to a fight for their careers in the AFC West. It seems that no matter how distant the two seem in comparison, they can’t get away from each other.

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Miami Masters Feature Matches: Roddick and Nadal in action

Miami, Florida – Both Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal had their share of disappointments in Indian Wells at the hands of the same man, Ivan Ljubicic. First, Nadal lost to Ljubicic in the semis of Indian Wells and then Roddick went on to lose to him in the final.

Roddick and Nadal will be looking to avoid the same mistakes here in Miami. That they open their campaigns against potentially dangerous opponents in Igor Andreev and Taylor Dent will see them apply the lesson of Indian Wells – not to underestimate an opponent – right of the bat. Nobody though believes that both will not come through to book his rightful places in the third round.

Roddick and Nadal enter their respective encounters as significant favourites to win outright. The bookies take on their matchups is hardly surprising and surely, they will come through on for the tennis betting public. The tipping question is how well they will perform and how quickly they will put their individual woes behind them.

Tennis Betting Line: Andy Roddick -800 Igor Andreev +425

First Set Line: Andy Roddick -500 Igor Andreev +300

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Friday March 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Roddick is trading at convincing -800 favourite odds to win outright at the expense of Andreev, listed at +425 underdog odds. Tennis buffs expect Roddick is the sure play in this match, the bookies certainly endorse him so. However, Andy Roddick and Andreev are level 2-2 lifetime; clearly, theirs is a competitive matchup. Well, it used to be more so between 2005 and 2007 during which time they met on three different occasions. Since then, they met only once and Roddick won quite convincingly. In 2009, Roddick beat Andreev in Canada 6-1, 7-6(3). The last encounter is the more representative result methinks.

As such, I believe Andreev could make this an entertaining match for the crowd to watch but Roddick should come through and give home fans something to cheer about.

Tennis Free Picks: Roddick in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Taylor Dent +800 Rafael Nadal -2000

First Set Line: Taylor Dent +500 Rafael Nadal -1000

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Friday March 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Rafael Nadal enters this match as the whopping favourite at -2000 to win outright over home favourite Taylor Dent, listed at +800. Because the crowd will be divided in their loyalties – Nadal is a fan favourite wherever he goes so he will not be short on support – Dent and Nadal should deliver an interesting clash.

It will be their first-ever clash though and in that there is the element of surprise. Having said that Nadal is you man all the way. There is no doubt that Nadal is the sure play to advance. Dent in my opinion doesn’t have the wherewithal to accomplish an upset of such proportions – at least, he hasn’t shown such a capacity to date.

Tennis Expert Predictions: Nadal in straight sets