World Cup 2010 – Dutch Courage Needed to Advance over Brazil

He wins his battles by making no mistakes, so said war strategist Sun Tzu, making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated.

The team to advance through to the semi-final stage of World Cup 2010 between Brazil and Netherlands will be the one who makes no mistakes because that is exactly where this game will be one, on the counter attack.

Netherlands vs Brazil

World Cup 2010 betting odds:

Friday, July 2, 10am EST (4pm Port Elizabeth Stadium local time)

Moneyline
Netherlands +½ +330
Draw +235
Brazil -120

Handicap
Netherlands + ½ Even
Brazil –½ -120

Moneyline
Netherlands 1 O+110, U-130
Brazil 1½ O+115, U-135

That means of course that this clash will be remembered for its chess-like antics rather than for its plethora of goals or goal scoring opportunities.

Defensively neither team will want the opposition to sneak into range for when you have sharp shooters like Brazil’s Luis Fabiano, Robinho, Dani Alves or the Netherlands’ Robin van Persie, Dirk Kuyt and Arjen Robben hovering with the ball, a scorching shot is never far away.

All of this means that Brazil and Netherlands will hover high playing the ball on the fringes and on top of the halfway mark waiting for the other to make a mistake and then they will pounce.

Dunga’s men have proven their worth this tournament and despite losing Elano to a right ankle injury, the Samba Kings are worth their weight in gold, each is a game winner, each player can turn a game with a deft flick or slinking run.

Calls for the Dutch to return to the totaal voetbal philosophy employed in the 1974 World Cup under coach Rinus Michels should be regarded as reckless and disregarded as not in the national best interest if they want to advance to the semi-finals.

Those calling for the change in Dutch tactics, to forgo their current winning formula and replace it with an idealistic concept that worked 30 years ago because of its boldness in times of stagnated football culture, do so because of a partial blindness to the rest of football history.

Ever since the Dutch’s 1974 2-0 victory over Brazil, the Oranje has failed to recreate the totaal voetbal style of play in which no player has a fixed role thus allowing a fluid structure whereby players peel off as they move up the field to be replaced by a team mate and so on.

Trying to re-invent the wheel at this stage of the tournament is suicidal.

Coach Bert van Marwijk has quelled a potential riff that only a can Persie outburst can ignite, but he needs to maintain the composure of his players and not allow their passion create unforced errors.

Just like in tennis, where unforced errors will curtail chances of victory, mistakes against the world number one ranked team will be met with defeat.

Prediction:
I’m going for the upset, 1-0 Netherlands. This will be the sixth meeting of these two teams and I pick the Dutch to square the ledger at 3-3 in doing so square the number of international goals at 14 apiece.

MMA Betting Breakdown – Lesnar, Carwin Heavyweight Battle Highlights UFC 116 Card

Mixed martial arts betting enthusiasts across the globe will be treated to their second consecutive top-notch heavyweight MMA showdown when UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin, takes place on Saturday, July 3rd, live on pay-per-view beginning at 7 PM ET from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin
Saturday, July 3, 7:00 PM ET
MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas

MMA fanatics that saw Fedor Emelianenko get upset by multi-talented heavyweight Fabricio Werdum at last week’s Strikeforce San Jose event, should be prepared for another scintillating showdown when Brock Lesnar (4-1) makes his long-awaited return to the Octagon to defend his world title against interim champ Shane Carwin (12-0) in a clash of titans that has been nearly an entire year in the making. 

Lesnar hasn’t fought since avenging his only career loss to Frank Mir with a second round TKO (punches) at UFC 100 on July 11 of last year, but MMA betting enthusiasts everywhere can ride the 6-foot-3-inch behemoth as a -155 favorite or back Carwin, the winner of all 12 of his career fights at a stellar +125.

For a fighter that has won each fight inside the first round, Carwin undoubtedly stands an excellent chance of winning this match and may not be an ‘underdog’ in this matchup no matter what the MMA odds say.

Mixed martial arts betting backers can also jump all over a matchup that has the potential to be the fight of the night when international superstar Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1) takes on Chris "The Crippler" Leben (20-6) in what promises to be an action-packed middleweight bout. 

Akiyama, who is unbeaten since 2005, is the favorite at a respectable -235 while betting enthusiasts that like Leben’s chances can play him as the underdog at a promising +185.

Moving right along, MMA betting enthusiasts will also be treated to a light heavyweight rematch battle between underdog, Stephan Bonnar (+180) and the favored, Krzysztof Soszynski at a solid -230.

Bonnar will be totally desperate to snap a three-fight losing streak that includes a third round TKO loss (doctor stoppage) Soszynski at UFC 110 in February.

UFC fanatics will also have another heavyweight showdown to wager on when the inexperienced, but still-favored Brendan Schaub (-350) battles veteran MMA banger Chris Tuchscherer, a surprising underdog (+250) despite winning more fights in his career (18) than Schaub has had fights.

Last, but certainly not least, MMA lovers can wager on the middleweight matchup between the favored Goran Reljic (-165) and underdog Kendall Grove (+135).

After winning his first eight career fights, Reljic lost a unanimous decision battle to C.B. Dollaway at UFC 110 while Grove also looks to bounce back from a TKO (punches) loss to Mark Munoz at UFC 112 in April.

Wimbledon WTA Expert Picks –Young Kvitova Looks to ‘Shock the World’ Against Serena

The more I’ve watched young Petra Kvitova, the more I see a possible grand slam winner at some point in the near future.

Unfortunately, the powerful 20-year-old from the Czech Republic faces an enormous (un-winnable?) battle in taking the next step toward making her first grand slam finals appearance when she gets the tall task of trying to defeat world No. 1 and defending Wimbledon champ, Serena Williams.

This breakdown of Thursday’s match, which gets underway at 7 AM ET, will give devoted tennis gamblers all the insight they need in order to make three winning wagers on this surprise pairing.

WTA Betting Odds

Serena Williams -5½ -140

Petra Kvitova +5½ Ev

Moneyline

Williams -2500

Kvitova +900

Over 19 +105

Under 19 -145

The Breakdown: First and foremost, while Petra Kvitova has made it all the way to the semifinal round, I’ll be the first person to admit that she clearly didn’t have the toughest road to get there, though she did beat three very good players in Jie Zheng, Victoria Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki in order to do so.

Kvitova struggled in her quarterfinal match against Kaia Kanepi, winning 6-4, 6-7 (8), 8-6 but did look absolutely fantastic in thrashing Wozniacki 6-2, 6-0 in the fourth round and Azarenka 7-5, 6-0 in the third round.

Still, facing the game’s most powerful – and mentally tough – player in Serena Williams is another story altogether.

And, speaking of Serena Williams, she has looked mostly phenomenal in not dropping a single set en route to the semis.

Williams knocked off veteran nemesis Na Li 7-5, 6-3 in the quarterfinal round and will have some extra motivation to beat her opponent after seeing big sis Venus get knocked out by upstart Tsvetana Pironkova in the quarterfinal round on Tuesday and then getting knocked out of the doubles portion of the field with Venus on Wednesday.

Tennis Betting Analysis: Again, WTA tennis betting enthusiasts, I am really impressed with the hard-hitting 6-foot Petra Kvitova, but the fact of the matter is that, unless she plays a flawless match, she, like many others before her, is going to be in for a long day against the best female player on the planet.

Serena will, no doubt, be in a foul mood – and will undoubtedly take out her frustrations on the ball – and her opponent – in this match.

While I don’t think Kvitova is going to necessarily hand the match to Williams on a silver platter, I just don’t see her overcoming Williams – or her first huge moment in the international tennis spotlight.

Serena Williams will undoubtedly win this match to cover the WTA moneyline as a whopping -2500 favorite, but something tells me that Kvitova is going to give it her all in covering the 5½-game spread as an Even Money wager.

Again, I like Petra Kvitova to cover the spread in a closer-than-expected match while the Over 19 total games plays out (just barely) against the 19-game O/U total.

WTA Pick: Serena Williams to win 6-4, 6-4

PGA Tour – Best Tournament Matchup Bets in the AT&T National

After Tiger Woods and Jim Furyk the golf sportsbook odds makers firmly believe that the AT&T National is wide open.

El Tigre and Fury are the only ones getting any respect by the odds makers to win this week’s PGA Tour Event.  There’s a reason that both should be in the running to win but betting on one to beat the entire field may not be the best wager to make in the golf sportsbook. 

Why not bet on El Tigre to beat Fury or on Fury to beat El Tigre in the tournament matchup betting category?

PGA Tour:  AT&T National

Where:  Aronimink Golf Club, Newton Square, PA

When:  July 1st thru July 4th

TV:  The Golf Channel, CBS

Radio:  XM-Satellite

AT&T National Tournament Matchups

 

1. Jim Furyk +160 vs. Tiger Woods -200 – - Woods should be the favorite in this matchup, but Furyk is the better bet.  Tiger hasn’t played a whole lot this year and he doesn’t know this course that well.  Not well enough to be this big of a favorite over Fury, that’s for sure.  I’ll take a shot on Furyk to be in position to win his 3rd tournament of the year.

           Pick:  Jim Furyk +160

2. Bo Van Pelt -115 vs. Ben Crane -115 – - My gut tells me that Crane is going to return to the form that led to 3 straight Top 10 finishes before his 12th at the Memorial Tournament and his missed cut at the U.S. Open.  Both of these guys shouldn’t have trouble getting out of Aronimink’s rough, but Crane’s been better overall than Van Pelt in the last 5 tournaments.  He’s the pick. 

 

           Pick:  Ben Crane -115

3. Scott Verplank -145 vs. David Toms +115 – - Toms hasn’t finished in the Top 10 yet in 2010 while Verplank is coming off of a 2nd place finish at the Travelers Championship.  Verplank also finished 5th at the Byron Nelson and 5th at the Crowne Plaza Invitational making it 3 Top 5 finishes in his last 4 tournaments played.

 

           Pick:  Scott Verplank -145

4. DJ Trahan -115 vs. JB Holmes -115 – - Beause of Aronimink’s tough rough, there’s really only one stat to look at when determining whom to bet in this matchup.  Holmes is ranked 17th in scrambling while Trahan is ranked north of 140th.  That gives the edge to Holmes because he should be able to get out of trouble this week.

 

            Pick:  JB Holmes -115

5. Ricky Barnes -115 vs. Rickie Fowler -115 – - Fowler is the “hot” golfer this week as a lot of press has been written about him.  He could prove me wrong, but I don’t believe that Aronimink sets up well for his game.  I do believe that it sets up well for Barnes who is a very good scrambler and has been fairly consistent in 2010 with 6 Top 10 finishes.

 

            Pick:  Ricky Barnes -115

6. Brain Gay -120 vs. Davis Love III -110 – - Gay is ranked 4th in scrambling.  He’s also ranked 1st in fairways hit.  If he can get his putter to work this week, then he shouldn’t have any trouble beating Davis Love III in this matchup.

 

           Pick:  Brain Gay -120

 

This week golfers head to Newton Square, PA for the AT&T National!  Log onto the golf sportsbook and bet the AT&T National!

PGA Tour – Is There Value in Betting on Tiger to Finish in the Top 10?

Tiger Woods is a huge favorite to win this week’s AT&T National.

Sports gamblers shouldn’t be fooled by the fact that EL Tigre won this tournament in 2009, however.

The AT&T National is being held at Aronimink Golf Club in Newton Square, PA. It’s a different course then where the PGA Tour held the tournament in 2009. Aronimink is known for tough rough.

That means that being able to scramble (saving par or better after missing the green in regulation) is going to be imperative.

Tiger’s good at scrambling and should finish in the Top 10 at the AT&T National, but is he offering value to finish in the Top 10 at the AT&T?

PGA Tour: AT&T National

• Where: Aronimink Golf Club, Newton Square, PA
• When: July 1st thru July 4th
• TV: The Golf Channel, CBS
• Radio: XM-Satellite

AT&T National Top 10

Best Golf Bet A: Ben Crane +225

Crane is a good scrambler. He also has 5 Top 10 finishes in 2010 including a 7th at Byron Nelson, a 4th at TPC Sawgrass (The Players Championship) and a 3rd at the Crowne Plaza Invitational.

His 12th at the Memorial could have been better and he did miss the cut at the U.S. Open, but Aronimink is sort of made for his game. He should do well this week.

Best Golf Bet B: Ricky Barnes +300

Scrambling shouldn’t be a problem for Barnes who is ranked 25th in that category.

He also has 6 Top 10 finishes on the year including a 5th at the Travelers Championship in his last start. He has 3 Top 10 finishes in his last 4 tournaments played on the PGA Tour. He’s a solid contender in this category.

Worst Value Golf Wager: Tiger Woods -500

Notice that I wrote worst “value” golf wager not just worst wager? Tiger has no business not finishing in the Top 10 at the AT&T National this week, but he missed the cut at the Quail Hollow and withdrew from The Players Championship.

The best he could do at the Memorial Tournament was a 19th place finish. Now, he tees-off on a course he’s not that familiar with. It’s just tough to lay that much money on El Tigre to finish in the Top 10 this week.

Best Underdog Golf Wager: JB Holmes +600

Holmes is ranked in the Top 20 in scrambling. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he hasn’t recorded a Top 10 finish in 8 straight tournaments.

That’s okay because Holmes recorded 3 Top 10 finishes in the first 8 tournaments he started this year. Maybe, he returns to that earlier season form, gets his swing going this week, and sneaks into the Top 10.

Others To Consider

Jim Furyk -120 – - 2 victories on the year and a nice 16th at the U.S. Open means that Fury’s ready to roll at Aronimink.

Scott Verplank +260 – - 3 Top 5 finishes in his last 4 tournaments gives Verplank a big shot to finish in the Top 10 in this.

Fredrik Jacobson +450 – - He’s ranked 3rd in scrambling on the PGA Tour. That should give him an advantage considering Arnomink’s rough.

This week golfers head to Newton Square, PA for the AT&T National! Log onto the golf sportsbook and bet the AT&T National!

European Tour – Is Westwood the Best Bet to Finish in the Top 10 at the Open de France?

Lee Westwood is arguably the top golfer in the world right now. He won the Race to Dubai in 2009, finished 2nd at the Masters tournament, and usually finishes in the Top 10 every week whether he plays on the European Tour or the PGA Tour.

But Westwood can stub his toe here and there. That’s why at the golf betting odds of -135, he may not be the best bet to finish in the Top 10 in this week’s Open de France.

European Tour: Open de France

Where: Le Golf National, Paris, France

When: July 1st thru July 4th

TV: The Golf Channel

Open de France Top 10

Best Golf Bet A: Martin Kaymer +125

Martin Kaymer beat Lee Westwood in a playoff at last year’s Open de France to take home the championship. He’s definitely one of the golfers to beat at this year’s Open de France based on his 8th place finish at the U.S. Open. Kaymer is a tough, young, golfer that has to be taken seriously. He’s also going off at much better golf odds than Lee Westwood to just get into the Top 10.

Best Golf Bet B: Rhys Davies +275

Davies didn’t play so well in last year’s Open de France, but that’s okay. He’s returning to the European Tour after a 74th place finish at the U.S. Open. That’s great news for the 6th ranked golfer in the Race to Dubai because he finished in 2nd place the last 2 times he played at a European Tour tournament, the Madrid Masters and The Celtic Manor Wales Open.

Worst Golf Wager: Rory McIlroy +175

McIlroy’s incredible talent, and 2nd place finish in the Race to Dubai in 2009, has made him a serious contender according to the golf odds makers each and every week. That’s too bad because this is what he’s done in his last 5 tournaments played on the European Tour: 17th, 65th, 70th, 48th and 108th at the U.S. Open (some PGA Tour events also count as European Tour events). Now, does it make sense to take such low odds on a golfer to finish in the Top 10 after he hasn’t done it in such a long time? I didn’t think so.

Best Underdog Golf Wager: Thongchai Jaidee +550

+550 are excellent golf betting odds on a guy that can really put together a great tournament. Jaidee often times follows up a string of okay finishes with an awesome finish. After finishing 56th at the WGC-CA and 96th at the Masters Tournament, he busted out with an 8th place finish at the Volvo China Open and a 9th at the Ballantine’s Championship in his next two starts. Now, he’s coming off of an 86th, 47th, and 21st place finish in his last 3 tournaments. He’s probably going to get at least a Top 10 finish this week.

Others To Consider

Lee Westwood -135 – - I’m not excited about the odds, but the man can play and there’s a reason he’s the favorite in this. He shot a 13 under at Le Golf National last year.

Luke Donald +150 – - He finished 2nd at the BMW PGA Championship, 1st at the Madrid Masters and 3rd at The Celtic Manor Wales Open before finishing 47th at the U.S. Open.

Charl Schwartzel +200 – - He’s coming off of an 8th place finish at the BMW International Open and is ranked 3rd in the Race to Dubai Standings.

This week’s European Tour Tournament is the Open de France! Log onto the golf sportsbook and bet the Open de France!

Furious MLB Betting Free Pick – Can Tampa Bounce Back Against Boston?

Rays Look To Garza After 8-5 Beating Tuesday Night

The Tampa Bay Rays are slipping down the standings after going 2-3 SU in their last five games and are hoping that a trip to Boston helps turn things around. While Toronto is no longer a threat (for now), the Rays have dropped to third in the AL East behind Boston and New York.

As they send Matt Garza to the stripe to gain some ground, the Rays are hoping that he doesn’t repeat his last road game performance. In just 1.1 innings against lowly Florida, Garza gave up 7 hits and 7 runs and was yanked afterwards. He has gone 3-1 SU in the month of June with an ERA of 7.84 over four starts.

Tampa Bay Rays (44-32) vs. Boston Red Sox (47-31)

Wednesday, June 30th — Fenway Park — 7:10pm EST

MLB Betting Lines:

TB – Matt Garza (R) +1.5 -190 / -110 / O 9.5 -105
BOS – Daisuke Matsuzaka (R) -1.5 +160 / -110 / U 9.5 -115

The home team will counter with import Matsuzaka, who is undefeated this month. After missing all of April, Daisuke is 5-2 SU as a starter with a 4.50 ERA in 9 starts. He has yet to face the Rays this year.

Where To Watch: SUN, NESN

Tampa Bay is imploding at a bad time, and even with Evan Longoria trying to seize the helm as the leader of the team, I have my problems. I can’t feel that encouraged by a team that is 1-5 SU in their last 6 road games no matter how talented they are. Take Boston across the board.

Furious MLB Free Pick – Boston RL and ML (UNDER)

In case that wasn’t enough for your baseball betting palette, we’re introducing a new feature right below! Along with your daily MLB free picks, I’m adding a parlay recommendation along with it. The following is not for the weak of heart. You’re getting two for the price of one now, might as well double up your pleasures in MLB betting too.

Warning: for tough guys only!

Tough Guy Parlay Pick: Boston 110 ML and NYY -160 ML

MLB Betting Lines:

Seattle Mariners – Felix Hernandez (R) +140

NY Yankees – Javier Vazquez (R) -160

Game Time: Yankees Stadium — 7:05pm EST

MLB Betting Lines:

• Seattle is 8-3 SU in last 11 games
• Seattle is 2-10 SU in last 12 games in New York
• Seattle is 6-15 SU in last 21 road games
• NYY are 4-2 SU in last 6 games
• NYY are 11-4 SU in last 15 at home

European Tour – 72 Hole Group Betting the Open de France

Lee Westwood is the big time favorite in the golf sportsbook to win this week’s Open de France.

He’s such a big favorite, in fact, that he can’t be found in any of the groups in the 72 Hole Group Betting category in the sportsbook.

That could be a good thing to some sports gamblers as being able to bet on Martin Kaymer to defend his Open de France Championship without having to beat Lee Westwood might be a good thing.

European Tour: Open de France

• Where: Le Golf National, Paris, France
• When: July 1st thru July 4th
• TV: The Golf Channel

72 Hole Group Betting

Group A: Martin Kaymer +275, Luke Donald +325, Charl Schwartzel +325, Rory McIlroy +350, Ross Fisher +350

Analysis: It’s going to be tough to beat Kaymer in this group. So, I’m not going to try.

The young German shot a -13 on his way to beating Lee Westwood in a playoff last year at Le Golf National. Donald and Schwartzel definitely have a shot in this group, but Kaymer’s coming off of an 8th place finish at the U.S. Open in his last tournament on the PGA Tour.

McIlroy? Of course he can win, but he can also miss the cut in this.

That’s the sort of year Rory’s been having. I don’t believe Ross Fisher is at the level of the other 4 golfers in this group.

Golf Betting: Martin Kaymer +275

Group B: Rhys Davies +300, Robert Karlsson +300, Soren Hansen +300, Geoff Ogilvy +350, Adam Scott +350

Analysis: Although he finished in 74th place at the U.S. Open, Rhys Davies is the golfer to bet in this group.

Yes, Hansen did very well in last year’s Open de France, but Davies finished 2nd at the Madrid Masters and 2nd at The Celtic Manor Wales Open before his terrible U.S. Open.

He’s the one to beat in this group even though a case can be made for all of the participants.

Golf Bet: Rhys Davies +300

Group C: Francisco Molinari +275, Peter Hanson +325, Soren Kjeldsen +325, Richard Green +350, Heath Slocum +350

Analysis: Peter Hanson is coming off of a 77th place finish at the BMW International Open, but look what he did before that, a 1st at the Iberdrola Open Cala Millor Mallorca, a 13th at the BMW PGA Championship and a 16th at the U.S. Open. He also shot a 9 under at last year’s Open de France to lose by only 4 strokes to Martin Kaymer.

Molinari, the favorite in this group, shot a 3 under at Le Golf National last year.

Golf Wager: Peter Hanson +325

Golf Bet D: Thongchai Jaidee +325, Raphael Jacquelin +325, Anders Hansen +325, Robert Rock +325, Gregory Havret +325

Analysis: Havret surprised everybody at the U.S. Open but he shot a 10 over and missed the cut at last year’s Open de France.

He’s a throw out. In fact, out of this group only Anders Hansen finished within shouting distance of the winner in last year’s Open de France when shooting a 9 under and finishing in 4th place. He’s the bet.

Golf Bet: Anders Hansen +325

This week’s European Tour Tournament is the Open de France! Log onto the golf sportsbook and bet the Open de France!

MLB Odds – Mets Slight Favorites to Beat Marlins Tonight

The New York Mets are favored in the baseball sportsbook to beat the Florida Marlins tonight when the two N.L. East teams clash in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

The reason for the Mets’ favoritism rests in the glove and hand of pitcher Mike Pelfrey.

Pelfrey has been sensational in 2010. He’s recorded 10 victories to only 2 defeats for a 2.71 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Pelfrey’s always had trouble against the Florida Marlins, however.

Besides beating the Marlins in his 2006 MLB debut, Pelfrey hasn’t had any success against the Marlins.

He’s 0 and 6 against Florida with a 5.82 ERA in 9 starts since that game-winning debut.

Will Pelfrey find a way to get over the Florida blues?

New York Mets at Florida Marlins

• Where: Hiram Bithorn Stadium, San Juan, Puerto Rico
• When: June 30th, 2010 at 7:10 pm EST
• TV: Mets – SNY, ESPN2
  Florida – ESPN2
• Radio: Mets – WFAN 660, WQBU 92.7
  Florida – WAXY 790, WAQI 710

MLB Betting Odds

New York Mets Mike Pelfrey – R -1 ½ +140 -115

Florida Marlins Chris Volstad – R +1 ½ -160 -105

The baseball betting trends favor the New York Mets in this game.

• The New York Mets are 14 and 2 in their last 16 games when their opponent allows 5 or more runs in their previous game.
• The New York Mets are 7 and 1 in Mike Pelfrey’s last 8 starts.
• The New York Mets are 5 and 0 in Mike Pelfrey’s last 5 starts after 4 days of rest.
• The Florida Marlins are 1 and 8 in Chris Volstad’s last 9 starts.
• The Florida Marlins are 5 and 13 in their last 18 games as an underdog.

This is an interesting game because of Pelfrey’s lack of success against the Florida Marlins during his career. I’m not sure if that past history means all that much in this game, though.

Pelfrey has been amazingly good in his last 8 starts going 6 and 1 with a 2.38 ERA. He has beaten some solid teams in those 6 victories including San Diego (twice) Atlanta, the New York Yankees, Philadelphia and Minnesota. Florida isn’t a horrible team, but they’re not better than the teams that Pelfrey has already beaten.

To put things even more in the Mets favor is the fact that the pitcher that they face, Chris Volstad, has had a less than spectacular season so far. Volstad is 4 and 7 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He hasn’t been all that great recently allowing 14 hits and 7 runs in his last 11.2 innings pitched.

I have to back Pelfrey and the Mets in this game. Pelfrey isn’t too big of a baseball bet favorite in the sportsbook and he’s just been too good in 2010 to allow his past history against the Marlins to get in the way of him pitching another great game.

MLB Sportsbook Pick: New York Mets -115

In the Big Apple for Belmont Park’s Nine-Race Card

The racing week for most tracks start today, and with the holiday weekend approaching, we have racing at many of the major tracks for the next six days in a row including next Monday.

There is plenty of good stakes action upcoming this weekend as well, with 17 graded stakes scheduled around the country, including the $250,000 American Oaks (G1) at Hollywood Park and the $750,000 United Nations (G1) at Monmouth Park on Saturday, and the $250,000 Prioress (G1) at Belmont Park on Sunday.

For Wednesday will head to the Big Apple for Belmont Park’s nine race card. The play of the day is the sixth race on the card, a first level allowance race.

Wicked Diva is going to be the betting favorite, but I think we can beat her with Vicarious, and we have a couple of longshots underneath, meaning we can hit a nice exacta and trifecta.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 6 Alw $39,000N1X (3:40 ET)
#8 Vicarious 5/1
#10 Wicked Diva 2/1
#6 Team Plan 10/1
#1 Simmy 12/1

Analysis: #8 Vicarious had to check briefly at the start, raced in between foes for much of the trip and made a mild late rally to finish third last out. The mare makes her third start of her current form cycle for the Jerkens barn that has been sending out live runners at the meet.

#10 Wicked Diva was a game second last out at this level in her first go against winners, and now returns off a 3 1/2 month layoff. The filly as a smart looking maiden winner two back in just her second career outing. The barn is 30% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. She catches a weak looking group here and likely is going to be a light price here.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 8,10 / 1,6,8,10
TRI: 8,10 / 1,6,8,10 / 1,4,6,8,10

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Belmont Park:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 2,8 / 1,3,9 / 1,2,3,8 = $24

BEL Race 7 Alw $50,000s (4:12 ET)
#2 Smart Woman, #8 Settling Seas

#2 Smart Woman was a good looking winner last out against $30K non winners of three in her first start on turf. This filly has won three of her last four starts and should only get better with the additional ground.

#8 Settling Seas set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish at this level. Her lone turf win came three back where she beat $50K claimers at Keeneland. She broke her maiden coming from off the pace at Fair Grounds and that may come in handy here as there are a couple of in here that can assure we see an honest pace.

BEL Race 8 OClm $35,000N1X (4:45 ET)
#1 Tahoe Warrior / #1a I’ve Got Speed, #3 Southern Exchange, #9 Academy Run

#1 Tahoe Warrior went gate to wire to beat $20K non winners of a race in six months last out, his sixth career win on turf. The runner up Sly, fourth and seventh place finisher call came out of the race to win next out. The gelding was claimed out of his last start by the RRod barn that is 5 for 8 (with a +ROI) first off the claim and is the hottest barn on the grounds.

Entrymate #1a I’ve Got Speed completes a strong entry. The Tony D. runner made a good late rally to beat $35K claimers in his last start. The eight year old gelding was making his first start off a 7 1/2 month layoff. This guy is a 14 time winner on turf and 5 for 7 over the turf at Belmont Park. He completes a strong entry.

BEL Race 9 Clm $25,000B (5:17 ET)
#2 Serela’s Song, #3 Centrina, #8 A Word to the Wise, #1 Tutti Va Bene

#2 Serela’s Song came up the inside with a mild late rally to finish fourth last out in a race that lacked much in the way of early pace. Two back this guy beat $25K non winners of two at Gulfstream Park in a sharp effort. It looks as if Ramon may see a more honest pace in front of him here.

#3 Centrina had to check at the start, had to steady in traffic on the far turn, and made a mild late bid to finish third last out. A clean trip should put her in the mix in this spot as she has looked to be on the improve since Martin switched her to the turf.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #6 Casa Di Vino 15/1
R4: #2 Corey’s Coming 12/1
R5: #10 Never Give Up 10/1
R6: #6 Team Plan 10/1
R6: #1 Simmy 12/1
R8: #6 Moon Ala Mode 8/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

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