UFC 129 Fight Lines – Jason Brilz Ready to Prove He’s No Fluke

The light heavyweight bout is so stacked that mid-carders like Matyushenko and Brilz will likely never ever sniff a title fight, but that doesn’t mean they can’t put together a great show with some tight UFC 129 fight lines hanging in the balance.

The Belarusian Matyushenko is rightfully favored in this fight, which will be a litmus test to see if Brilz really is better than a walking punching bag with arms and I am amped to see this fight unfold. You should be too.

Brilz has been in the UFC since 2008, racking up a 3-2 SU record as an undercarder for the majority of his professional career. Then came what was supposed to be a gateway match for the highly touted Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, the twin brother of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (seriously, Mr. and Mrs. Nogueira?). Instead of serving as a door mat, Brilz fought tooth and nail in a highly contested split decision which he lost.

That fight won Fight of the Night honors and immediately made Brilz a must-see fighter in my eyes. Maybe I have a thing for guys that look like they jumped off the back of a garbage truck and threw on a pair of shorts. The fact that Brilz is a tight underdog in the UFC 129 fight lines against the much more seasoned Matyushenko should tell you just how nervous the oddsmakers are about him too.

Jason Brilz (18-3-1) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5)

Saturday, April 20 — Rogers Center — 10:00pm EST

UFC 129 Fight Lines: Brilz -105 / Matyushenko -125

The biggest problem with Matyushenko is that he might be too seasoned. He is, after all, 40 years old, and even when he was a tad bit younger he couldn’t keep up with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at Affliction: Day of Reckoning in 2009. Matyushenko lost that fight in the second round with a knockout via knees and has since gone 4-1 SU, losing lopsidedly to Jon Jones at UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko.

Both fighters are wrestlers by passion and trade, and it would be remiss of Matyushenko to keep this one standing up especially since he lacks the requisite power to put the hard-headed Brilz on his back. Matyushenko is on his way out the door in the UFC and the sport in general, and it’s still bewildering to me that he’d be favored in UFC 129 fight lines against a younger, tougher Brilz.

All that being said, I don’t expect this to be a boring fight. There’s no glitz or glamor about Brilz. He’ll stand there and take shots like a skinned carcass in a meat freezer, while delivering some of his own, and Matyushenko will leave everything in the octagon in what will likely be his final fight in the majors. This fight won’t act like a spring board for either fighter, but if you like watching big guys just slug it out old-school, then this is your ticket, and Brilz is the guy to back on the UFC 129 fight lines because he’s simply younger.

Furious UFC 129 Fight Lines Pick – Brilz -105 via Decision

UFC 129 Betting – Bocek Will Be Pushed By Henderson

The atmosphere will be electric when the lights go up on the main card for UFC 129 betting this Saturday, with Toronto-native Mark Bocek throwing down against American Ben Henderson in a battle of submission specialists.

Bocek will be a fan favorite after dismantling Dustin Hazelett in less than three minutes at UFC 124, but will need to control his aggression with the possibility that Henderson can counter and end the bout just as quickly with a submission of his own.

UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields

Mark Bocek (9-3-0) vs. Ben Henderson (12-2-0)

Saturday April 30, 2011

Rogers Centre, Toronto, Canada

UFC 129 Betting Line: Henderson -140

Henderson will be making his UFC debut in this fight, and will be eager to get back on track after having his run of 10 consecutive wins ended with a unanimous decision loss to Anthony Pettis at WEC 53: Henderson vs. Pettis last December. Both fighters have proven themselves at different levels, but only one will be able to take the next step forward.

UFC 129 Betting: Mark Bocek

A black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Kempo, Bocek has clinched won four of his past five fights to establish his self as a contender in the UFC lightweight division. With each of his past two wins earning Submission of the Night recognition, the 29-year old has proven that he can compete and entertain at the highest level. The next move for Bocek is a step up in competition, and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain his style against some of the better fighters in the promotion. Seven of his nine career wins have been clinched via submission, but it won’t be as easy as he takes on opponents with stronger defenses.

UFC 129 Betting: Ben Henderson

The former WEC Lightweight champion lost his title right before the two promotions formed together, and will have a much more difficult time becoming a champion in the UFC. A black belt in Taekwando and brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Henderson is equally adept at the submission game, with the fact that he has clinched eight of his 10 wins by making his opponent tap testament to that. Henderson is strong on the ground and has a good guard, but will be pushed by a very determined Bocek.

UFC 129 Betting Matchup: Bocek vs. Henderson

Both fighters are well versed in their submission ways, and it will be interesting to see how Henderson adapts in his first UFC fight. While this tilt could go either way, one thing that is guaranteed is that the fans will be entertained with a combined two Fight of the Night honors and three Submission of the Night honors between them. Bocek will have the hometown crowd in his corner, and that will make the difference.

UFC 129 Betting Pick: Bocek

UFC Betting Odds – Can GSP TKO the 15 Win Streak Shields

UFC Betting Odds haven’t been this HOT for years – WOO HOO HOOO!! Georges St-Pierre is the one-man wrecking crew on the way to UFC Dynasty status. Don’t discount Jake Shields so quickly people. This guy has a different style that may make you think twice.

Canada is going on shutdown mode come Saturday night as EVERYONE in the country is rooting for this French Canadian to bust up some USA chops in the Welterweight Championship fight for UFC 129.

Jake Shields (26-4-1) at Georges St-Pierre (21-2-0) – Saturday April 30 at 11:00 ET PPV

Rogers Centre (67,000-69,000) – Toronto, Ontario, Canada

UFC Betting Odds:

Jake Shields (26-4-1) +300

Georges St-Pierre (21-2-0) -400

Over/Under Rounds Total – 3.5 over -155

St-Pierre is French-Canadian which is a huge obstacle to overcome. Besides that fact, it is troublesome to find what I would call a weakness for this Great White North warrior even with these one-sided UFC Betting Odds.

The fact about Georges when you grapple with him is that it’s hard to know what technique or blow he is going to deliver next. This Canadian is has such a diverse arsenal at his beckon, and all his weapons are 8-10 on the skill scale.

GSP is considered by many, including UFC President Dana White, to be MMA’s best pound for pound fighter currently. I’m not going to argue that point against the brawler gunning for a UFC record 6th title defense.

You’re probably sick of hearing about Jake Shields’s’s’s’s’ single definite advantage in the jiu-jitsu skill area, but I had to mention it so you knew that I knew ok Newman.

Jake Shields has won 15 fights in a row, but those are not on the elite UFC scale as the UFC Betting Odds demonstrate. And no, I’m not buying that one of those was a tiff with the President of the Gay Defamation League.

Shields wrecked his challengers in the EliteXC and overpowered every worthy opponent in STRIKEFORCE before coming over to the big boys. His opponent at UFC 121 was Martin Kampmann who he took down in a split decision.

This guy will not give up on this fight no matter what (even if he is gay). His highly combative nature along with his cardio-conditioning routine put him at a decided advantage over almost any opponent going deep into the last round.

For this reason only, if I had to bet either Frenchy or the gay American, I would have to go with the plus money with Shields. I have a more solid bet against these UFC Betting Odds at Bet US.
55,000 fans and haters will be in that stadium which is an MMA North American record. I think they will get their money’s worth and then some, because I think the fight goes the distance.

UFC Betting Odds Play – Lay the -155 and Bet OVER 3.5 Rounds

UFC 129 Predictions – Bocek-Henderson Can Boost Your Parlays This Weekend

Parlay betting is like playing Russian roulette with a double-barreled shotgun but the payout makes it well worth it, especially when you gloss over the fight lines and my previous UFC 129 predictions.

To recap, here’s what I have going down at the mega-event in Toronto this weekend:

Georges St-Pierre -450 over Jake Shields +325

Jose Aldo -500 over Mark Hominick +325

Randy Couture +250 over Lyoto Machida -350 (note – this is an emotional pick which I had freely admitted and the smart money is actually with Machida)

Most of the betting crowd that likes winning money will side with the heavy favorites, and if you want to really make those odds worth playing then you’re going to have to string a few fights together. The other two bouts on the main card bring some good value to the board which can inevitably boost the value of any parlay you have going.

The tilt pitting Mark Bocek against Ben Henderson is exactly that type of fight because Henderson would be a much bigger favorite in UFC 129 predictions if Bocek wasn’t fighting in his home town. No MMA fighter from Toronto would have ever dreamed of fighting in the Rogers Centre (previously known as the Skydome), and Bocek’s dreams come true on Saturday night.

The Canadian lightweight has had major trouble establishing himself as a contender in the UFC, losing his debut in 2007 to current champion Frankie Edgar while also dropping bouts to big names like Mac Danzig in 2008 and Jim Miller just last year. He is currently 9-3 SU professionally and 5-3 SU in the UFC.

What I do like for Bocek in this fight as a +125 underdog is not only that he’s at home, but that he boasts a decisive four-inch reach advantage over the favored Henderson who is listed as a -145 favorite. The problem for Bocek is that he is not great on his feet, and would prefer to see this game go to the ground. You have to wonder if he’s done what’s required of him to use his reach advantage in this fight in the prep leading up to Saturday.

Henderson is a former WEC lightweight champion who is known for his speed and ruthless aggression. At just 27 years old, he’s entering his physical prime and with a record of 12-2 SU he will be looking to make a booming debut in the UFC so he can put himself at the front of the line. Those that followed the WEC will point to Henderson’s WEC finale against Anthony Pettis in December, where he lost by unanimous decision.

The reason to back Bocek in UFC 129 predictions is the home town crowd factor, as well as the “this is my career on the line” underdog mentality he’ll bring to this fight. There is nothing that Bocek does spectacularly well, and there are plenty of things that Henderson does to make him a worthy take. He is as known for his lethal offense as he is for being flexible. It’s virtually impossible to submit this guy.

Seven of Bocek’s nine wins have come via submission, so if he’s going to win it’s going to have to be on the ground, unless he can control the fight by frustrating Henderson with takedown defense while using his reach to keep some distance. Fact is that I really like Henderson, but there are a lot of intangibles here that can’t be measured. The extra juice that Bocek brings to the octagon as a home town boy from Toronto can definitely make him a wry underdog in UFC 129 predictions, worthy of boosting the payouts of parlays with other fights on this card.

Furious UFC 129 Predictions – Bocek +145 via Decision

UFC 129 Betting – Getting To Know Jake Shields

Entering the UFC 129 Betting, Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre is a comfortable favorite. But in his long and successful career, he has yet to meet a fighter quite like Saturday’s opponent, Jake Shields.

Here’s everything you need to know about the upstart challenger.

UFC 129

Saturday, April 30: 11:00 p.m. EST Pay Per View, Live from Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON

Betting Odds:

Jake Shields: +325

Georges St. Pierre: -450

Total:

Over 3 ½: -135

Under 3 ½: +105

Shields enters this match with a very impressive 26-4-1 record, with eight of his last 11 victories coming by way of submission. Speaking of those victories, he has a staggering 15 match winning streak, dating all the way back to December 2004. That is the longest active streak in UFC.

Growing up in California, Shields began wrestling in high school, and in 2001 earned a scholarship to San Francisco State, a reason for his strong grappling game, which he will bring into the Octagon Saturday night.

Shields first big break came well before Saturday’s UFC 129 Betting, way back in 2004, when he beat Ray Cooper with a Round 1 submission to claim the vacant Shooto Middleweight title.

Unfortunately, it was only a few months later that he lost that belt, as Akira Kikuchi won a unanimous decision to take the title.

Since then though, Shields has been unbeaten, fighting at both at 185 lbs. and 170 as well. Shields really made a name for himself in July 2008, winning the vacant Elite XC Welterweight title, defeating Nick Thompson by submission in the first round. He defended that championship a few months later with a submission over Paul Daley, to put his career record at 22-4-1.

From there, Shields won a fight against Robbie Lawler, before moving up to 185 lbs. to take on Jason Miller for the vacant Strikeforce Middleweight Championship. He defended the title with a unanimous decision against Jason Miller.

Finally, following the Miller fight, Shields signed with Dana White and the Ultimate Fighting Championship, setting up this UFC 129 Betting showdown. Shields last fight came in a Welterweight elimination fight, when he came back down to 170 lbs., and defeated Martin Kampmann by split decision last October at UFC 121. Shields has come out and said that was one of the worst fights of his career.

Regardless, it set up Saturday’s matchup with St. Pierre, a fighter that still many consider to be the best pound-for-pound in the world. St. Pierre enters with an impressive 21-2 mark, and has defended his Welterweight title every time he’s entered the Octagon over his last six fights. Fighting in front of 55,000 people at the Rogers Centre, St. Pierre, a Canadian, will have the home crowd advantage.

Still, having risen through the ranks, and entering with a 15 fight winning streak, don’t underestimate Shields.

He’s got plenty of talent to pull the UFC 129 Betting upset!

UFC 129 Odds – MacDonald Looks To Avoid Same Long Term Fate

Another Canadian talent on the card will be eager to get back in the octagon in a matchup of two fighters looking to bounce back from tough losses, as home country favorite Rory MacDonald clashes with Nate Diaz in the final preliminary matchup. MacDonald had his string of 10 straight wins snapped with the first loss of his career, a knockout decision at the hands of Carlos Condit, while Diaz fell to Dong Hyun Kim via unanimous decision. Here’s a look at the UFC 129 odds:

UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields

Nate Diaz (13-6-0) vs. Rory MacDonald (10-1-0)

Saturday April 30, 2011

Rogers Centre, Toronto, Canada

UFC 129 Odds: MacDonald -130

The resume of the Ultimate Fighter 5 champion may serve as a caution to MacDonald, as Diaz started his professional career just as strong before tailing off in recent years. Consistency will be the key to MacDonald making a name for himself in the UFC, and suffering consecutive losses for the first time in his career won’t help.

Leading Up To UFC 129 Odds: Nate Diaz

After winning 10 of his first 12 fights, Diaz has really struggled to establish himself as a legitimate contender in the UFC with four losses in his last seven bouts. The 26-year old seemed to have turned the corner with consecutive wins at UFC 111 and 118 over Rory Markham and Marcus Davis, including earning Fight of the Night honors in the second when he locked in a Guillotine choke on Davis with less than a minute to go before the final bell. Diaz has clinched nine of his 13 career victories via submission, but has demonstrated his heavy hands with three career knockout wins. Another loss would really hurt at this point in his career, although five of his six defeats have gone to judge’s decision.

Leading Up To UFC 129 Odds: Rory MacDonald

Versed in both Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and boxing, MacDonald establish his self in a variety of other promotions before making a successful jump to the UFC with a win over Mike Guymon at UFC Fight Night 20. The 21-year old needed just 4:27 to submit Guymon with an arm bar, but couldn’t follow up that momentum when he was knocked out by Carlos Condit with seconds left on the clock at UFC 115. Fast-forward almost a year later and MacDonald is set to make his return with a ton of support as another Canadian representative.

UFC 129 Odds & Prediction

MacDonald has had a ton of success at lower levels, but will learn in a hurry that it takes much more to win in the top MMA promotion worldwide. Diaz can attest to that after hitting a wall after a brilliant start to his career, and will look to take advantage of the youngster and show him just how hard he will have to work if he wants to take another step forward.

UFC 129 Odds Pick: Diaz

MLB Odds – St Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves

The National League Central-leading St Louis Cardinals will be playing in Atlanta this weekend for a three-game series against the Braves. The Braves look to get their third consecutive win tonight to push to team back over .500 for the season.

The MLB odds tonight favor the Braves at home, with the game total set at seven runs.

St Louis Cardinals (14-11) vs. Atlanta Braves (13-13)

Friday, April 29 at 7:35 PM ET

Turner Field, Atlanta, Georgia

TV: FSMW, FSS

MLB Odds:  St Louis +1.5, Atlanta -1.5, Game Total: 7 runs

Atlanta gets the nod in the MLB odds tonight, as the team will face Chris Carpenter, who has yet to notch a win on the season. In what will be his sixth start, the right-hander has allowed 25 hits and 14 runs on the season with an ERA of 3.90.

Although Carpenter got no-decisions in his last two outings, his pitches strengthened, as he gave up just seven hits.

The Braves Chipper Jones, who has put together nine RBIs in his last six games of solid play, is three for eight with a double in his career against Carpenter.

Atlanta will send Tim Hudson to the stripe, who has struggled at home, posting an ERA of 6.50 at Turner Field when facing St. Louis. And the St Louis bats have been strong lately, lead by the veteran Lance Berkman, who hit at .500 with two doubles against his former team, the Houston Astros. Both Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols have had great numbers against Hudson in the past.

In Hudson’s last outing, he pitched to within just one out of a complete game, as the Braves defeated the San Francisco Giants and the stellar Tim Lincecum.

Hudson has allowed 33 hits in his five starts, but only one homer amid 17 strike-outs.

MLB Pitching Matchup:

C. Carpenter (0-2, ERA 3.90) vs. T. Hudson (3-2, ERA 3.57)

Both teams come into tonight’s game having won in six of their last 10 games.  With similar records and with both teams batting well at this point in the season, starting pitching will have a greater factor in the outcome of the game.

Hudson, although he has faltered against certain individual batters of the Cardinals in the past, has pitched more consistently in 2011.  The best bet is to follow the MLB odds and put your money on the Braves tonight at home.

MLB Odds Free Pick – Take Atlanta -1.5!

MLB Sportsbook Odds – Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays go for their sixth win in a row tonight, as the team hosts the Los Angeles Angels at Tropicana Field. After dropping two games to the Angels at home to start the season, the Rays have turned their game around and plan to continue their streak of success.

The MLB Sportsbook lists the Rays as the favorite in tonight’s game, with the run total set at 7.5 runs.

Los Angeles Angels (14-11) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (14-11)

Friday, April 29 at 7:10 PM ET

Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida

MLB Sportsbook Odds: Los Angeles +1.5, Tampa Bay -1.5, Game Total: 7.5 runs

Behind the bat of Ben Zobrist, the Rays have won five straight, including a double-header against Minnesota last Thursday in which Zobrist went seven for 10 with 10 RBIs and two home-runs.

Just phenomenal batting, and Rays hope that Zobrist and the rest of the team can keep it up to revenge the team’s two early-season losses to the Angels.

Los Angeles will send Ervin Santana to the mound tonight, still in search of his first season win. In his last outing, Santana allowed five runs in a loss to Boston. With a season ERA of 5.51, Santana has had success against the streaking Zobrist, as the Ray has only gotten one hit in eight at-bats versus Santana.

Santana has also struggled at Tropicana, winning one out of four starts with a bloated ERA of 7.36.

After dropping five of their last seven games at home, the Angels begin a long road trip tonight in Florida, looking to find some success on the road.

The hot Rays look to David Price tonight, who has won his last three in a row and is looking for his fourth consecutive win. During his latest winning streak, Price has averaged an ERA of 2.28 while allowing only four runs in over eight innings pitched. Against the Angels, Price is 1-1 with an ERA of 4.18.

MLB Pitching Matchup:

E. Santana (0-3, ERA 5.51) vs. D. Price (3-2, ERA 3.19)

The Sportsbook odds favor the Rays due to their on-fire batting as of late as well as the team’s home-field advantage. The best MLB bet for tonight is with the odds and on the Rays to get their sixth win in a row.

MLB Sportsbook Odds – Take the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5!

UFC Sportsbook – UFC 129 Undercard Stacked With Canadian Talent

Apparently UFC president Dana White wanted to emphasize that the first ever event to take place in the city of Toronto should have an overwhelming amount of Canadian talent.

After all, the card for UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields has at least one home country representative in 10 of the 12 fights, including every single one on what has shaped up to be a solid under card at the UFC sportsbook.

UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields

Saturday April 30, 2011

Rogers Centre, Toronto, Canada

Broadcast: Pay-Per-View

Nate Diaz (13-6-0) vs. Rory MacDonald (10-1-0)

Submission specialist Nate Diaz will look to rebound from a unanimous decision loss to Dong Hyun Kim in the final contest before the main card gets underway. Diaz will face an opponent that fights with a similar style in Canadian Rory MacDonald, who will try to rebound from the first loss of his professional career. MacDonald dominated his way through his first 10 fights with none of them going to judge’s decision, and will look to continue that trend with a big win to get the fans going before the main card.

UFC Sportsbook Pick: MacDonald -110

Sean Pierson (11-4-0) vs. Jake Ellenberger (24-5-0)

35-year old Sean Pierson will attempt to parlay his successful UFC debut into a second consecutive win when he represents the home country against Jake Ellenberger, who has registered three straight victories. Ellenberger will push Pierson with his aggressive style, and should be able to provide the upset with both age and experience in the UFC on his side.

UFC Sportsbook Pick: Ellenberger -200

Claude Patrick (13-1-0) vs. Daniel Roberts (12-1-0)

A couple of fighters with nearly identical styles and records will clash in the final contest before the event goes live to air on Spike TV. It’s a shame to those that won’ be a part of the 55,000 that will be in attendance that this fight wont’ be televised, as it could end up being the most technically intriguing matchup of the night with the Toronto-native Pierson getting edge over his American counterpart.

UFC Sportsbook Pick: Patrick

Ivan Menjivar (21-7-0)  vs Charlie Valencia (12-6-0)

One of the most well versed fighters on the undercard will look to regain his edge as Ivan Menjivar stands toe-to-toe with Charlie Valencia on the heels of three losses through his past four fights. Valencia is in the same boat after his submission loss to Miguel Torres at WEC 51, and will struggle to get the job done in his UFC debut against a much more desperate opponent.

UFC Sportsbook Pick: Menjivar

Jason MacDonald (24-14-0) vs. Ryan Jensen (15-7-0)

Losses in two of his past three fights have left American Ryan Jensen looking for answers entering his UFC 129 tilt with Canadian Jason MacDonald, but won’t get the one that he wants. MacDonald had won three straight fights before falling against John Salter at UFC 113 due to a broken leg that forced him to retire, and should be ready to go by UFC 129.

UFC Sportsbook Pick: Jensen

UFC 129 Odds – Couture Seeks One More Bit of Glory against Machida

If you analyze the UFC 129 odds, you know that there are two championship fights that headline the show, but the fight that brings together a great of the present and a great of the past will get a lot of attention, as Randy Couture seeks one more bit of glory in his scheduled three-round light heavyweight fight against another former champion, Lyoto Machida.

The bout takes place at the Bell Centre in Montreal, as part of the pay-per-view telecast. In the UFC 129 odds, Machida has been established as the -350 favorite. The fight is favored to the tune of -145 to go "under" two and a half rounds.

UFC 129 Odds

Light Heavyweights

April 30 — Montreal

LYOTO MACHIDA -350

RANDY COUTURE +250

Under 2.5 Rounds -14

Over 2.5 Rounds +115

We know what kind of style Machida, the -350 favorite in the UFC 129 odds, brings to the table. He is deliberate, purposeful and patient. Such tactics have the effect of frustrating the opponent, and it has not mattered much if the opponent has much experience or not, as he has beaten more than his share of veteran competitors. He is not super-aggressive, but he is indeed effective.

Machida came to the UFC having scored wins outside the U.S. against Stephan Bonnar, BJ Penn and Rich Franklin, among others, and stayed undefeated through victories against people like Tito Ortiz and Thiago Silva before getting his opportunity against Rashad Evans as a -225 favorite in the UFC odds. He blasted out Evans in the second round, winning the title and the "Knockout of the Night."

Machida beat Shogun Rua in his first title defense, but it came with much dispute; so much that it mandated a rematch, which actually took place in Montreal. In that fight, Machida was felled with a right hand, which sent him to the ground and allowed Rua to go to the ground-and-pound, and just like that, Machida was without a title. In the fight where he tried to bounce back, in UFC 123, he lost a very narrow decision to Rampage Jackson. Otherwise, he may have been a bigger favorite in the UFC 129 odds.

Nobody needs to go over Couture’s resume again. He is, quite simply, one of the moist decorated fighters ever to have stepped into the Octagon. Couture has been both the light heavyweight and heavyweight champion, and you could not write the history of the organization without talking about his battles with the likes of Chuck Liddell, Josh Barnett, Tito Ortiz, Vitor Belfort, Tim Sylvia, Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, among others.

Couture has captured titles at both heavyweight and light heavyweight after the age of 40, which is astounding, and he has won three straight fights. So he may always be a dangerous dog in the UFC 129 odds. Although he may not be considered to be a primary contender for championship honors anymore, he might have enough in him for one more big win. Lord knows he has been written off on more than one occasion, but has managed to get back into the picture.

At age 47, the task is obviously daunting for Couture, who gets +250 in the UFC 129 odds here. He may be a "master strategist," as he has been referred to many times on the UFC telecasts, but there are some things the body isn’t going to allow him to do. And let’s face it – there is potentially a lot of extra work he has to do to get through to Machida, who, if you are a boxing fans, might best be described as the "Jimmy Young of mixed martial arts." That means he may not be the busiest fighter offensively, but his elusiveness, style and defensive ability makes it tough to mount a sustained offense against him. Couture, whose last two fights have come against another aging fighter in Mark Coleman and boxer James Toney, isn’t going to get there. Machida frustrates him on the way to a decision win, so in the UFC 129 odds, we like him and the distance bet.

JAY’S PLAYS: MACHIDA TO WIN (-350) **** and OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+115) ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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