Golf Betting – Heritage Draws One of World’s Best In Favored Donald, Who Chases #1 Ranking

The Western Conference is on display on Wednesday night when three games in the NBA Playoffs, involving 6 teams from the West, will take place.

NBA betting fans should rejoice as, for some strange reason, the odds makers continue to offer up juicy numbers on the underdogs. Although Denver, Memphis and the Hornets all covered the spread in the first game of their respective playoff series, all three teams are underdogs in the sportsbook for their second games.

Check out previews of the three Western Conference contests on Wednesday, April 20.

NBA Playoffs – April 20 Games

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder

Where: Oklahoma City Arena, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

When: 8:00 pm EST

NBA Odds: Denver +4 ½

Analysis: Oklahoma City was all out to beat the Nuggets in Game 1 of this series. OKC came close to covering the 6 point online NBA betting spread in the sports book in that first game with the 107 to 103 victory. I still like Denver ATS in this contest even though the spread has gone down a full 1 and ½ points from Game 1. Denver is a solid unit. The Nuggets actually shot better than the Thunder from the field, 50.6% to 49.4%, but they missed 12 free throws in the game and shot only 25% from behind the three-point line. Oklahoma City needed 41 points from Kevin Durant and 31 from Russell Westbrook to win the game. I don’t see the pair necessarily doing that well on Wednesday night while the Nuggets should be better at the line and from behind the arc. Denver could upset OKC with a straight up victory on April 20.

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs

Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

When: 8:30 pm EST

NBA Odds: Memphis +8 ½

Analysis: What’s hard for most NBA odds fans to believe is that the Memphis Grizzlies might actually be the kind of team that just matches up well with the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are the Celtics of the West meaning that they’re not exactly a bunch of young cats. Manu Ginobili, one of San Antonio’s top players, is listed as probable for the game with an elbow injury. San Antonio’s vaunted defense was nowhere to be found in Game 1 when the Grizzlies shot a ridiculous 55.2% from the field in a 37 out of 67 night. The Grizzlies held the Spurs to 40% from the field in the shocking victory. What’s more disturbing is the fact that Memphis’ inside game dominated starters Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyees. Duncan had 16 points and 13 boards.

McDyees had a paltry 3 points and 1 board. DeJuan Blair, who played more than McDyees, scored 9 points and grabbed 6 boards. Zach Randolph for Memphis scored 25 points and grabbed 14 boards. Marc Gasol for the Grizzlies pitched in 24 points and 9 boards. If the Spurs can’t control the paint in Game 2, they could find themselves in a deep hole.

New Orleans Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers

Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California

When: 10:30 pm EST

NBA Odds: New Orleans +11 ½

Analysis: CP3, that’s Chris Paul, flat out dominated the entire Los Angeles Lakers team in the Hornets’ incredible 109 to 100 victory on the NBA moneyline odds. How good was Paul against Kobe’s team? How does 33 points, 4 steals, 14 assists and 7 rebounds sound? That’s domination from the point-guard position. Will Kobe and the Lakers have an answer on Wednesday night?

I don’t know. Kobe got his 35 points but he also had 5 turnovers. In fact, the mighty Lakers had 13 turnovers for the game and Pau Gasol was awful with only 8 points and 6 rebounds. Sure, Lakers’ coach Phil Jackson is a master motivator, but motivation can’t guard Chris Paul. Somebody with some legs underneath him might be able to. I’m not sure the Lakers have anybody like that on their team. I like the Hornets to cover again.

UFC 130 Pits Popular Rampage Against Tough Hamill

UFC 130, this Saturday, May 28 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, sends one of Mixed Martial Arts most popular fighters, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, to the Octagon to face-off against the tough Matt Hamill.  Jackson is a solid -350 favorite to take down Hamill.

Before Rampage hits the mat against Hamill, veteran Frank Mir takes on the underrated Roy “Big Country” Nelson in the main prelim bout.  Keep reading for previews of both fights.

UFC 130:  Rampage vs. Hamill

Where:  MGM Grand Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

When:  May 28, 2011 at 9 pm EST

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Matt Hamill – - Q will be the first to admit that his split decision victory over Lyoto Machida last November at UFC 123 was due to luck.  Machida out struck Rampage 33 to 16 in that fight, yet he lost to the more popular Jackson.  At least Rampage is playing nice with the UFC brass, nowadays.  Maybe, the film career, Q starred as B.A. Baracus in the movie version of The A-Team, hasn’t taken off the way that he thought it would. 

In any case, Rampage faces a tough opponent in Matt Hamill who, although lacking true marketing appeal, has an 11 and 2 record, better than Rampage’s 31 and 8 record, depending on what point-of-view you’ve got.  Hamill might actually provide “Q” Jackson with a tough fight.  Save for a ridiculous victory over Jon Jones in 2009 via a Bones Jones disqualification, Hamill has been terrific in the Octagon in his recent battles.  He beat Keith Jardine by out striking the well-regarded fighter 77 to 65 in 2010.  Then, he took out Tito Ortiz last October at UFC 121.  In that fight, Hamill out struck Ortiz 41 to 37 and took Tito down 3 times.

Rampage is a deserving favorite in the fight, but if he isn’t revved up for it, Hamill could make the main event interesting.

Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson – - Mir’s work ethic is what makes him one of the most popular fighters at UFC.  It’s certainly not his fighting style which, as opposed to the more popular battlers in the sport (see Jon Jones, Cain Velasquez, Anderson Silva, etc.), Mir’s mostly a take it to the mat dude.  His skill breakdown lists striking as making up only 16% of his overall skill set.  The terrific grappling/submission ability has led to a 14 and 5 record.

So far, bettors aren’t impressed.  Mir and Nelson are battling it out for favoritism at -115 for both guys in the sportsbook.  Nelson’s 16 and 5 record is legit.  He’s won 2 out of his last 3 fights and lasted 3 rounds with Junior Dos Santos at UFC 117 last August.  Nelson gives up 3 inches to Frank, Mir is 6’ 3” and Nelson is 6’ 0”, but Big Country’s got a serious shot to beat the popular Mir because of his heavy hands.  Nelson’s skill breakdown lists striking at 73%.  He’s also listed as having terrific grappling skills meaning that Frank can’t just go to the mat with the big dude.

Big Country’s issue, what’s always been his issue, is the fact that, unlike Frank Mir, the man doesn’t have the greatest work ethic.  Check out the lively paunch he’ll bring into the ring on Saturday night, the one that escapes no eyes in almost every picture of him without his shirt, in order to get what I mean.  If Big Country is too big out of shape, if the pancakes he’s been eating for breakfast actually appear to be seeping out of his belly, then figure Frank Mir to out work him on the ground.

Online UFC Betting – Machida to Push ‘Old-Head’ Couture Closer to Retirement with UFC 129 Win

While no athlete has ever been able to outrun ‘Father Time’ many have tried – and failed – with varying levels of success as they fade into the twilight of their respective careers.

Having said that, let me also say that there is nothing more upsetting to fight fans than seeing a once-great fighter turn into a shell of his former self while trying to hold on well past the point of when he should have retired.

With that thought in mind, MMA fans and BetOnline online UFC betting enthusiasts everywhere are now seeing that scenario play out with legendary fighter Randy Couture just as I mentioned.

Couture will look to add to his already-cemented legend when he steps inside the Octagon at UFC 129 on Saturday night, live from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario.

UFC 129 St. Pierre vs. Shields

Rogers Centre

Toronto, Ontario 9:00 PM ET

UFC 129 Odds

Randy Couture +250

Lyoto Machida -350

Name: Randy Couture

Age: 47

Nickname: The Natural

Record: 19-10  

Association: Xtreme Couture

Height: 6’1" (186cm)

Weight: 220lbs (100kg)

City: Corvallis, Oregon

Analysis: Randy Couture specializes in Greco-Roman Wrestling, Boxing, Submission Wrestling, Catch Wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

The 47-year-old Hall of Fame inductee has won three consecutive fights for BetOnline online MMA betting backers coming into this bout while racking up seven of his career 19 wins via KO or TKO, four more by way of submission and eight wins via decision.

Couture has also suffered five KO losses, four submission defeats and one decision loss in a career that has helped make mixed martial arts a mainstream sport.

Name: Lyoto Machida

Age: 33

Nickname: The Dragon

Record: 16-2

Association: Team Machida

Height: 6’1" (186cm)

Weight: 205lbs (93kg)

Birth Date: 1978-05-30

City: Belem, Para

Country: Brazil

Analysis: Lyoto Machida specializes in his own unique brand of Shotokan Karate as well as Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Sumo Wrestling. BetOnline online MMA betting enthusiasts should know that Machida has lost two consecutive fights coming into this bout, including a split decision loss to Quinton Rampage Jackson at UFC 123 in November.

In his career, Machida has racked up five of his 16 career wins via O or TKO. Two by way of submission and another nine wins via decision. Machida has also suffered one KO loss in his career to Mauricio Rua at UFC 113 in May.

Fight Analysis: Randy Couture may be the only athlete in UFC history to win a championship after becoming a Hall of Fame member as well as the oldest title holder in UFC history.

Unfortunately, Couture is getting far too old to keep getting in the Octagon nearly two decades younger that he is.

While Couture has won three straight fights for UFC online MMA betting backers coming into this matchup, but all three of thise wins came against mediocre opponents (Brando Vera, Mark Coleman and James Toney) that were all facing a huge deficit in experience against the grizzled veteran.

Couture is still an expert strategist and one that could pull off the big upset ehere is he can get Machida to fall into his traps.

However, I’ve got to say that Lyoto Machida certainly isn’t chopped liver nor is he an inexperienced young guy that will be overwhelmed by Couture’s overwhelming presence.

Lyoto Machida is the right pick here for BetOnline online MMA betting fanatics that are looking to cash in against the value-packed UFC betting odds.

Machida is far more desperate than Randy Couture coming into this bout – and I think that desperation will only serve to help him even more in this fight.

If Machida can beat elite MMA fighters like Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans and Mauricio Rua, as well as keeping it close against Quinton Jackson, then he should be able to beat even the widely-beloved Randy Couture while cashing in against the UFC online MMA betting odds as a significant favorite.

UFC Prediction: Lyoto Machida by Third Round TKO

PGA Betting – Bohn, Snedeker Hope for Repeats of Sorts in New Orleans

Golf fans know that momentum and past performance are two very powerful things in PGA betting, and this week Jason Bohn and Brandt Snedeker will be looking to take advantage of those things as they hope for repeats of sorts in New Orleans in the Zurich Classic. The action gets underway on Thursday at the TPC Louisiana, located in Avondale, LA, and runs through Sunday. Golf Channel handles the TV coverage for the first two days, followed by CBS on the weekend. Luke Donald is the favorite in PGA betting at +800, with Nick Watney at +1200. Bohn, last year’s champion, is listed at +7000, and Snedeker is +2000.

PGA Betting

Zurich Classic of New Orleans

TPC Louisiana

Avondale, LA

April 28 – May 1

Purse: $6.4 million

TV Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Thursday/Friday: Golf Channel – 3-6 PM

Saturday/Sunday: CBS – 3-6 PM

After Hurricane Katrina, the TPC Louisiana, like a lot of things, had to be restructured a bit. It was actually shortened by 200 yards or so, PGA bettors should know that this course is going to invite big hitters, because the fairways are wider than the last stop on the tour at Hilton Head. But shot-making is going to be a key, because the wrong placement on the sizable greens can easily make for a lot of three-putts.

The hole that can create the most problems for players is going to be the Par-4 6th, a dogleg that can play tricks with the players, depending on which way the wind is blowing. They could easily get into trouble right off the tee, with a left-side hazard, and last year’s average score on this hole was over 4.2, which makes it, statistically speaking, the toughest hole on the course.

PGA Betting

To Win Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Luke Donald +800

Nick Watney +1200

Justin Rose +1500

Steve Stricker +1500

K.J. Choi +2000

Bubba Watson +2000

Brandt Snedeker +2000

Ben Crane +2500

Charley Hoffman +2500

Rickie Fowler +3000

David Toms +3000

Jeff Overton +3000

Graeme McDowell +3500

Rory Sabbatini +3500

Robert Allenby +3500

Webb Simpson +4000

Last year Jason Bohn beat back the challenge of Jeff Overton to win by two strokes. Lee Janzen, the two-time U.S. Open champion, had by far his best finish of the year as he nabbed fourth place. He’ll be back in the field on a sponsor’s exemption this year, as will former PGA and British Open champion John Daly. Justin Leonard, the former British Open champion, is priced at +5500 in PGA betting. Chip Beck put up the best four-round score ever in this event, shooting 26 under par in 1988, but that was at the Lakewood Country Club.

Bohn has had only one top twenty finish this year, and that came at the Mayakoba Classic in Mexico. He had missed the cut in New Orleans in 2009, and did the same in 2004 and 2005. The defending champion is +7000 in PGA betting this week, which might impress golf mavens who think lightning can strike twice.

Overton, the Indiana University graduate who did so well on the Tour in 2010, with six top ten results on his way to a berth on the Ryder Cup team, has had one top then this year, and that was at the Honda Classic. He didn’t play last week at Hilton Head, perhaps licking his wounds from the T-44 he posted in his debut at the Masters. He is one of the lower-priced entries at +3000 in the PGA betting odds, but is still looking for his first PGA Tour win, and he’s had some rough luck in that quest; last year he was the runner-up in the Greenbriar Classic, losing out by a single stroke to Stuart Appleby, who fired a 59 in the final round.

Brandt Snedeker will be in the field this week, coming off his win at the Heritage in South Carolina, and there are a fair number of PGA bettors who think he can repeat, based on his form right now. The Vanderbilt alum has been a hot player on the tour; he has five top ten finishes in his last ten events. After finishing fourth in the Transitions Championship them missing the cut at Arnold Palmer’s tournament – inevitable after an opening round of 80 – he tied for 15th at the Masters, was fourth at the Texas Open and then broke through for his second PGA Tour win last week. Snedeker is heating up for what he hopes will be an effort in the U.S. Open similar to last year, when he tied for eighth place. This week he is +2000 in PGA betting to win the event, and +1200 to be the Top American.

MMA Betting – Bellator 43 Pits Two UFC Veterans against Up-And-Comer

For the second weekend in a row the MMA Betting fan will get a chance to enjoy what promises to be a very intriguing fight card – this time from Oklahoma and broadcast on MTV2. Two former UFC castoffs will headline the Bellator 43 event with Jay Heiron battling Rick Hawn in Welterweight action and Je Riggs taking part in a Middleweight scrap against Bryan Baker.

Bellator 43

Saturday, May 7th, 2011

First Council Casino, Newkirk, OK

Broadcast: MTV2

Rick Hawn (11-0-0): +140

Jay Hieron (21-4-0):  -170

The MMA Betting Bellator Welterweight tournament Season 4 winner will be determined on Saturday night when Judo Olympian Rick Hawn takes on uber-seasoned grappler Jay Heiron. The winner of this fight will get a future shot at Bellator Welterweight Champ Ben Askern down the road – a lot is on the line!

Rick Hawn is a judo Black Belt who has made a life out of fighting. He has adapted his immense judo skills and has become a very good Mixed Martial Artist. He has tremendous balance, great throws and an emerging Muay Thai game that has been responsible for seven TKO wins among his 11 overall. Gotta love a slick judo practitioner with power!

Former UFC fighter Jay Heiron is currently riding a nine fight win streak that has lasted for nearly four years. He has experience, a dangerous ground game, tremendous wrestling and solid striking game. Heiron is on a mission to prove that his all around skill are world class and that he perhaps deserves another shot on the Big Stage.

MMA Betting Prediction:

Heiron’s grappling and ring experience should be a huge advantage in this fight but against a fighter’s whose game is predicated on good defense, Heiron could be in some trouble. I think this is a stylistic nightmare for Heiron – Hawn should be able to do some damage from the outside and should be able to go to work in the clinch. Hawn already beat Lyman Good in the tournament (many’s pick to win the whole thing) and Good may be better than Heiron. Watch as Rick Hawn officially bursts onto the scene!

MMA Betting Pick: Rick Hawn +140

Joe Riggs (34-11-0): +200

Bryan Baker (14-2-0): -260

In the second to last MMA Betting bout of the evening another former UFC fighter Joe Riggs takes on the inspirational Bryan Baker in Middleweight action. Both fighters are battling for something much larger than their opponents – for Riggs it is MMA relevance and for Baker, he is fighting to prove that with the right mindset, diseases like Leukemia are not tough enough to keep him down.

Joe Riggs is certainly experienced and has been at or near the top of every organization that he has been a part of and he is only 28 years old! He will be making his organizational debut on Saturday night with the hopes of proving that his career hiccup was just that – a hiccup. Riggs is a well rounded fighter who is coming off a TKO loss in his last fight.

Bryan Baker’s story is Hallmark Card potential. He battled Leukemia on the Second Season Middleweight tournament and only illness and an uber-tough Alexander Schemenko kept him from reaching his tournament goal. Now Baker gets another chance to make a name for himself, this time against a seasoned Joe Riggs. Baker has already proven that he is not intimidated by experience – he is coming off an impressive win over Jeremy Horn in his last fight.

MMA Betting Outlook:

Both of these fighters appear equally matched on paper but the X-factor in this fight will be Baker’s motivation. Riggs has been around the block, seen it all but appears to be on the downside of his career. Riggs was completely underwhelming in his last fight while Baker (three weeks after Leukemia remission) stopped a very tough Jeremy Horn. In a classic experience vs. hunger matchup, I’ll take the hunger.

MMA Betting Pick: Bryan Baker -260

Final Four Odds and NCAA Tournament Deliberation

There may not be any 1 or 2 seeds in Houston, but the Final Four Odds make it clear there is still a betting favorite and underdog to make choices about. This NCAA Tournament is far from over and near another March Madness weekend.

Kentucky, Connecticut, Butler and VCU didn’t sniff my Bracket Picks for this weekend, but the frenzy and mayhem about to happen will more than make up for that. Which team needs scissors?

Kentucky Wildcats (+140)

I guess we’ll start with Mr. Integrity John Calipari’s Wildcats. They are the favorite. They’re the favorite to have this Final Four appearance vacated because of illegal, immoral and important decisions made that were not in the teams or universities best interest.

But you know that going in when you hire Vinny Calamari. You also can’t take anything away from these kids here. This team started as immature freshman-loaded learners, but the Final Four Odds show the confidence and maturity that is rare in a single season.

Don’t forget the Wildcats have gotten revenge on 6 of the 8 teams that defeated them this year. This could make it 7, and they probably didn’t like that 84-67 lava meltdown in Hawaii UConn delivered.

Connecticut Huskies (+220)

From what I hear, Coach Calhoun is a HOOT to hang out with at the NCAA Tournament. Jim really nevuh has a negative thing to say about anything or anybody. He’s a ball of energy that would give out his last dolluh bill to anyone in need.

Sorry about that, sometimes I can’t help this gremlin inside my head from taking over my writing. It’s the same thing that happens when your little head takes over when you drink.

Speaking of pigs, Governor Steve Beshear of Kentucky is putting a pig’s ass where his mouth is against the Final Four Odds swine-fest Saturday night. Steve the Swine is putting up a country ham against Connecticut Governor Dannel P. Malloy’s ice cream surprise (I wouldn’t eat it) from the UConn dairy bar.

All of this hoopla doesn’t change the fact that UConn has the LOCK for MOP in the NCAA Tournament in Kemba Walker. Good luck shutting this guy down. He’s setting records and has enough to win it ALL.

Butler Bulldogs (+350)

I know I’m getting older, but these coaches are definitely getting younger in the NCAA Tournament.  Coach Brad Stevens may only be 34 years old, but this NCAA Head Coach is in the Final 4 for the second year in a row. Most coaches don’t ever do that…in their whole career.

You can’t help but see how his players relate to him so easily. He is always in control and confident, but there’s this bizarre serenity about him that says there’s nothing to worry about. That confidence has obviously transmitted itself to his players in the form of belief that they can overcome the Final Four Odds against them.

It is belief in what the coach has told them to be true. It is belief in themselves as individuals and as a team in this unique bond. It seems a little eerie to me, but it is only because I haven’t experienced this kind of motivation before. Damn, this is sure a kick to watch though.

Virginia Commonwealth (+500)

The youngest Head Coach in this Final 4 by a year is Shaka Smart for the Rams, and that 1 year may end up being the difference against Butler. In that extra year, Coach Stevens got his first Final 4 NCAA Tournament experience. This whole juiced-up atmosphere is just starting to come to a thrilling anticipation.

You can’t say ANY team is out when they are banging 3-point bombs like VCU has been doing. They have been outrebounded in their last 3 victories against Florida State, Georgetown and mighty Kansas by a combined 37 differential. They still won the games though.

If they rock the 3-point missiles at their usual 50% give or take, how do you keep up? They have to be worried about a letdown after slaying Kansas in a laugher as an 11-point underdog. They are still known as Cinderella with the highest Final Four Odds of all to Win the NCAA Tournament.

Final 4 Odds – Connecticut Huskies Players To Watch

The Connecticut Huskies, on paper, look like a one man show with Kemba Walker doing just about everything possible. However, Head Coach Jim Calhoun has a halfway decent team around him as well, and though these men wouldn’t be able to win the NCAA Tournament without Walker, Walker wouldn’t be able to win it without them either. These are the men crucial for beating the Final 4 odds for the Huskies.

Of course, we do still have to start with the amazing Walker, one of the most dynamic players in this tournament. Save Jimmer Fredette of the BYU Cougars, there isn’t a man that could have put his team on his back and just carried it to victory like Walker did against the San Diego State Aztecs. Walker took a modest deficit and turned it into a modest lead all by himself, as he went on a 14-1 run against the entire team for the Mountain West champs.

Just looking at his averages show just show strong of a player Walker really is. He has put up 23.9 points, 5.3 boards, 4.5 assists, and 1.9 steals per game, and all of that has come with him averaging just over two turnovers per game, a fantastic mark for a man that handles the ball as much as he does. That 20 points he put up against the Arizona Wildcats almost seems tame, especially since he had led this team to the point of the Final 4 odds by putting up three games of 33+ points since the semifinals of the Big East Tournament against the Syracuse Orange.

However, the man that has really come on strong over the course of these last few weeks has been Jeremy Lamb. Lamb was averaging under double digits per game when the Big East Tourney got underway at Madison Square Garden, and all of a sudden, he came alive. Lamb has scored at least 11 points in nine straight, and he has five games with at least 16 points in that stretch. He scored a total of 43 point in Anaheim in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 combined, and he is sure to be a focal point for those betting on the Final 4 odds with UConn.

Coach Calhoun knows that Alex Oriakhi really needs to be big as well. Oriakhi can be a monster in the post, and he has had some great games against some great teams. For example, he put up 11 points and 21 boards against the Texas Longhorns on the road, and he had 18 points and 11 rebounds against these Kentucky Wildcats in the Maui Invitational as well.

However, the big man has really fallen off at times, and though he was once averaging a double-double per game, he hasn’t even had a double-double yet in this tournament. The 6.3 points per game that he has scored thus far in March Madness isn’t going to cut it to beat the Final 4 odds, and he is going to be one of the biggest keys of the game against the UK bigs.

Men’s French Open Tournament Winner – Who will win the title?

For the first time in roughly six years Rafael Nadal, the World No.1 and five-time defending champion, is not the outright betting fave in tennis betting markets. Sportsbooks, across all platforms, seem to think that Novak Djokovic – the indisputable real time No.1 player this season – is the one to beat and the one most likely to win the 2011 French Open.

As the overarching markets currently stand, Djokovic leads the pack at a deliciously short price of +110, while Rafael Nadal comes up just a smidgen behind at +138. On the opposite spectrum is Roger Federer tipped at a surprisingly large +500 and Andy Murray at an outrageous +1400.

So the question must be asked: do the bookies have it right?

Before we can answer this question let us take stock of the French Open bracket; that is, Nadal and Murray are set to decide a spot in the final while Djokovic and Federer the other.
On bracket alone one has to concede that Nadal has the best shot to reach the final of the foursome by far and to win the whole damn thing. In terms of reaching the final, two simple reasons spring to mind

Murray is not a clay-courter per se, although he’s put in some impressive results on clay this season; and

Murray has never beaten Nadal on clay.  Taking it a step further to the title, Nadal to win has to be the smart play because he’s won it five times for heaven’s sake. And this holds true irrespective of which player he would face in the final.

Granted, should Federer accomplish the unthinkable and that is, stop the seemingly unstoppable Djokovic in the semis, Nadal’s odds to win a sixth French Open at the expense of Federer would improve tenfold. His head-to-head record over Federer both lifetime and especially on clay dictates it be so.

If Djokovic reaches the final, Nadal should still be held a good bet to win because Djokovic has yet to beat him in the best of five-set scenario on clay. However, I have a sneaky suspicion that in such an instance bookies will send Nadal into the match as the underdog.

On paper, Djokovic has the tougher road to the title through Federer – and potentially Nadal, the King of Clay only – but, admittedly, his undefeated run together with his record against both Federer and Nadal this season negates that notion. He’s beaten Federer three times already and Nadal four times, and thus, it is understandable why the bookies are cornering the tournament in his corner.

But Djokovic is yet to come up against Federer on clay during this incredible run, an instance that appears to be  a non-issue, when he’s simply forgotten how to lose, but is on the contrary worthy of note given that Federer, up to last year (or thereabouts), was widely held second only to Nadal on clay. This is evinced by the amount of finals the pair contested on the red dirt.

Dismissing Federer out of hand simply because he’s yet to beat Djokovic is a bit rash and – dare I say it – rather disrespectful of the GOAT. Is it so unreasonable to assume that Federer might force Djokovic to bite the dust in Paris?

Fact is that runs do end. It is inevitable. Whether it does against Federer or potentially Nadal (or less likely Murray) in the final or not at all, remains to be seen. But if it were to end, it would seem only fitting – poetic justice even – if it were to end at the hands Federer, only the game’s best player ever who is all too readily these days being written off out of hand or at the hands of Nadal, only the King of Clay and last season’s best player by a country mile.

That being said, Djokovic is brimming with confidence while Federer isn’t and Nadal is until he comes up against Djokovic. And that is fact does tip the balance in favour of Djokovic to win the French Open.

As far as Murray, he’s the long shot bet of the pack but, at the same time, he is also the dangerous floater. Nobody expects him to win and that makes him a bit dangerous, if you ask me.
First, he’s never been considered a clay-court threat but it would be perverse to deny that he has a chance when he’s clearly made huge improvements in his game on clay. Whether that is because the bar is set so low for him during the clay-court swing (in some cases, he’s doesn’t even make for a footnote) and as such, he can swing freely – bugger the pundits and their casting – or whether it is because he’s fallen into a favourable section of the draw (which he has) is at this point irrelevant. Fact, he is a win away from the final, two from the title.

Beating Nadal is going to take something extra special from Muzz though, something akin to the match of his life. Talent, skill and quality suggest he can do it. Thus far, in his career he hasn’t delivered on any of those at the Grand Slam level and until he does, that makes a strong case against him.  

So in conclusion, one can’t fault the bookies for the way this particular French Open is cast. But at the end of the day, matches aren’t played on paper and in many ways, any of these four players can win the title.

Semi-final Predictions: Nadal to beat Murray in four sets and Federer to beat Djokovic in an epic five setter.

Final Predictions: Nadal to beat Federer in four

Golf Betting – Top 10 for this Week’s The Heritage Open

Golf continues to provide terrific action both on the television set and in the online betting book this week with The Heritage Open.

2010 Heritage Open winner Jim Furyk is a tepid +1500 co-second choice in the sports book to win this week’s PGA Tour Event. The favorite, Luke Donald, looks incredibly difficult to beat.

Both guys show up in my Top 10 for the week.

Keep reading for my Top 10 for this week’s The Heritage Open.

The Heritage Open: Top 10

When: April 21 – April 24, 2011

Where: Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, South Carolina

Course: par 71, 6973 yards

TV: Golf, CBS

Top 10

Matt Kuchar +1500 – - Finished in fourteenth place at last year’s Heritage. Matty K is offering decent odds considering who his competition is in this week’s tournament. I have to believe that Kuchar goes back to the excellent play that led to six Top 10 finishes in eight starts. His twenty-seventh place finish at the Masters in his last wasn’t horrible. I’ll back him.

Luke Donald +900 – - Donald has finished in the Top 3 at The Heritage Open in the last two years. He obviously knows how to strike the ball over the Harbour Town Course. I’m not thrilled with the golf odds, but to leave the WGC-Accenture winner, who also finished fourth at the Masters, out of my Top 2 would be a mistake.

Jason Day +2500 – - Day can be hot or cold. After finishing north of 40 at the WGC-Cadillac and then north of 50 at the Transitions Open and missing the cut at the Shell Houston Open, Day almost pulled off the Masters’ victory when finishing second. I’m hoping that the “hot” Day shows up this week.

Jim Furyk +1500 – - The defending The Heritage Open champion has started to get his swing in order with a thirteenth at the Transitions, a Top 10 at the Arnold Palmer and a twenty-fourth at the Masters.

Rickey Fowler +2500 – - So far, Rickie hasn’t had that breakout season that everybody was talking about last fall. He did finish in eighth place at the 2010 Heritage Open with three rounds of 69 or better including a 67 fourth round. With a repeat, ‘the Bird” will make his online golf odds betting backers extremely happy at that 25 to 1 number.

Graeme McDowell +2500 – - It’s been a weird March and April for McDowell. He missed the cut at both the Arnold Palmer and Masters. He finished in forty-second place at the WGC-Cadillac. I’ve got to believe he does much better than that this week. I just have to.

Aaron Baddeley +2000- – Baddeley won at this course in 2006. He has five Top 25 finishes in five starts at Harbour Town. He’s offering fair odds and has three Top 10 finishes on the year.

He’s got a shot.

Francesco Molinari +3000 – - Don’t let the fiftieth place finish at the Masters fool you. Francesco can hit a golf ball. His third place finish at the WGC-Cadillac was absolutely fantastic and the online sports betting odds on him to win The Heritage cannot be ignored.

Brian Gay +3000 – - The thirty-second place finish at the 2010 The Heritage Open won’t give golf handicappers much hope for Brian G. this week. I prefer to look at the 69 that he drilled in rounds three and four at Harbour Town and give him the benefit of the doubt. Gay’s going to have to play much better than he did last week with that twenty-third place finish at the Valero Texas Open.

Ernie Els +3000 – - Els has finished seventieth, fifty-first and forty-seventh in his last three tournaments played. That’s not good, but this is Double-E, right? It’s hard to argue against the odds in the online sportsbook and Els can come up big on any given day. So, Ernie is tough to leave out of the Top 10.

MLB Betting Odds – Athletics vs. Rangers

Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and Texas’ C.J. Wilson will take the mound for their team tonight at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington at 8:05 PM ET.

MLB betting Odds:

Oakland Athletics +1.5

Texas Rangers -1.5

O/U 8.5

Cahill remains unbeaten and will try to be the second pitcher with six wins in the young MLB season. He has more career wins over the Rangers than any other opponent, going 7-2 with a 2.27 ERA in 10 starts. Wilson on the other hand has only one loss against four wins. That defeat came against the Oakland Athletics two weeks ago.

The Athletics won that game 3-1 as each pitcher threw seven innings; Cahill allowed only seven hits and Wilson allowed three runs and nine hits.

Both teams have an 18-17 record but are two games behind the Angels who face the struggling White Sox tonight.

Keep in mind Oakland doesn’t win two games in a row since they beat Texas on May 1st and 2nd.  Since them there have recorded three wins and three losses.

The Rangers have lost six of the last eight games, not to mention a 12-5 beating against the New York Yankees on Sunday.  They are awful and can’t be trusted.

Consider these MLB betting trends:

Oakland is:

8-2 ATS against left-handed starters

5-2 ATS as a road underdog of +100 to +125

Cahill is 14-3 TSR off team win

Texas is:

3-5 ATS when the total is 8 to 8.5

6-7 ATS against division opponents

11-9 ATS in night games

Wilson is 11-1 TSR at home with a money line of -100 to -150

Simmons’ MLB betting pick: Take Oakland to cover.

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