Sunday Night and Monday Night Matchups Tell Tale of Two Stories, But Still Value-Packed

Sunday Night and Monday Night NFL Matchups Tell Tale of Two Stories, But Still Value-Packed

This week’s pair of prime time football matchups tell a tale of two stories for BetOnline gridiron gamblers that are looking to add to their weekly bankroll earning by cashing in on the final two games on the upcoming Week 4 docket.

In Sunday night’s matchup, two legitimate Conference title contenders will go all out in what looks like a defensive battle just waiting to happen.

In Monday night’s prime time pairing, blossoming Tampa Bay will look to pound winless Indianapolis in a contest that has the look of an overwhelming mismatch.

No matter how each matchup looks right now, BetOnline football betting enthusiasts everywhere will get a great chance to boost the annual pro football betting bankroll as I offer up what should be a payday-producing duo of nighttime picks.

Sunday Night Football

NY Jets at Baltimore
Sunday, Oct. 2, 8:20 PM ET

Odds
Baltimore Ravens -3
Over/Under 41.5

The Scoop:  On Sunday night Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens will look to make it two wins in a row when they host Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets in a prime time matchup between two teams that are each looking to take the number one spot.

The Ravens laid a huge ‘smackdown’ on St. Louis just as I expected en route to a resounding 37-7 win over the struggling Rams. Baltimore got a fine effort out of quarterback Joe Flacco as the strong-armed signal-caller completed 27 of 48 passes for 389 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Rookie wideout Torrey Smith caught five balls for 152 yards and all three of Flacco’s TD strikes.

The Ravens easily cashed in as a 5.5-point road favorite to improve to 2-1 ATS on the season and come into this contest having compiled an impressive 11-4 ATS mark in its L/15 Week 4 contests.

The New York Jets allowed the Oakland Raiders to rush for a whopping 234 yards, including 171 and two scores from Darren McFadden in its 34-24 loss to Oakland as a 2.5-point road favorite in Week 3.

The SU loss also gave the Jets their second ATS loss in three games, but at least Jets’ betting backers can take some positives out of the fact that their team has won 13 of its L/18 road games.

I really like the Baltimore Ravens to find a way to win this important home contest and narrowly cover the spread against a Jets team that is still trying to find its way on defense after allowing 58 combined points against Dallas and Oakland in week 1 and 3.

The road team in this AFC rivalry has gone 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings, but the Jets are just 1-6 ATS in the L/7 matchups against Baltimore.

I like Baltimore’s defense to give Mark Sanchez a bit of a tougher way to go that New York will Joe Flacco and the fact that the Ravens are playing at home certainly doesn’t hurt.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 Points

Monday Night Football

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay
Monday, Oct. 3, 8:30 PM ET

Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10
Over/Under 40.5

The Scoop: The Indianapolis Colts fought valiantly in their Week 3 matchup against the defending AFC-champion Pittsburgh Steelers but lost to their AFC counterparts 23-20 to fall to a disappointing 0-3 SU despite covering the spread for the first time this season as a 10-point home underdog.

Veteran quarterback Kerry Collins looked mediocre at best in completing just 13 of 29 passes for a paltry 93 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. After getting banged up, the Colts turned to rookie Curtis Painter who completed 5 of 11 passes for 60 yards. The lone bright spot was Joseph Addai rushing for 86 yards on just 11 carries.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers improved to 2-0 SU and ATS over its last two games by narrowly beating the Atlanta Falcons 16-13 as a 1-point home favorite in their Week 3 NFC South divisional matchup.

The Buccaneers held Matt Ryan and to just three points through three quarters to get the win and look like a ‘lock’ to get the SU win in this matchup. However, covering the double-digit point spread may be a bit of a task with the Colts in all-out desperation mode right now. The Bucs have lost six of their L/9 meetings against Indianapolis and something tells me that Josh freeman and company are going to fall just short of cashing in against the Colts in this contest.

Yes, I know the Colts are just 1-4 SU and ATS over their L/5 games while Tampa Bay has compiled a polar opposite 4-1 SU mark over the same span, but I can’t help but think that if the Colts could keep it close against the Steelers the last time out, they should be able to do likewise in this contest against a Buccaneers team that is averaging just 4.7 points per game more than they are.

It’s not going to be a real popular pick, but I’m banking on the ‘desperate’ Colts to find a way to cover the double-digit spread!

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +10 Points

NLCS Preview – Who Will Win the NL Pennant?

NLCS Preview – Who Will Win the NL Pennant?

The baseball regular season is done and dusted and in the books. Now, it’s all about the playoffs and winning the title and true to form, BetOnline has a whole slew of baseball betting options for such a major event.

Let’s look closely at the NL Pennant and preview the teams to determine the best bets in the bunch to win this divisional pennant.

BetOnline Odds to Win National League Pennant – Click here to Bet
Philadelphia Phillies      -175  
Milwaukee Brewers      +450  
Arizona Diamondbacks      +650  
St Louis Cardinals      +650 

The Phillies are runaway faves in this group and for good reason. Widely considered the greatest team in Phillies history, manager Charlie Manuel has cultivated a team ethos that has players putting the team before any individual ego. Such fundamental makeup is a winning formula in any sport.

It is very tempting therefore to back the winning horse in this bunch and wager on the Phillies at a solid -175 to advance into the title series. Even use them in multiple combinations found under ‘odds to meet in the World Series.’ In these cases, Phillies vs. Yankees is listed at +190 (decent value) while Phillies vs. Rangers tipped at +450 (great value).

However, the playoffs are an entirely different ball game and it’s quite likely that such a strategy can backfire. The pressure is entirely on them to come through on market expectations and that could reveal a few weak links, such as Roy Oswalt, who – let’s face it – isn’t as great as he once was.

Milwaukee Brewers are considered the second faves in this bunch and a good alternative bet to conventional wisdom that dictates a bet on the Phillies. They are a solid team that can beat anybody on any night, especially with home ground advantage. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are tough customers and Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum (amongst several others) can combine to give Philadelphia a run for its money.

Undoubtedly, the Brewers loom as the best sleeper bet in this group and their value only gets better in the next round with combinations ranging from +800 to +1600 based on the matchup from this divisional round vantage point. A bet to consider, if you ask me.

As far as the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals go, remuneration is at par – both priced at +650 to reach the World Series. Frankly, I am not sold on the Cardinals at this price. They were lucky to come up against the worst Houston Astros to secure the Wild Card spot but still needed a helping hand from the Braves, which they supplied on the back of a complete collapse in the final game of the season.  The Diamondbacks meanwhile are seriously underrated considering they clinched a spot on their own merit. They could be the right underdogs that would shake things up in this bunch. Still it is a stretch considering Milwaukee stands in their way.

Baseball Betting Pick: Phillies over St. Louis and Milwaukee over Arizona in round one and Milwaukee to stop the Phillies juggernaut.

ALCS Preview – Who Will Win the AL Pennant?

American League Betting Preview and Picks

Baseball fans are gearing up for what promises to be a highly competitive race to the title, particularly in the AL, where the race is wide open for the most part.
Here is a quick rundown of the contenders and the odds they roll in on in round one.

BetOnline Odds to Win AL Pennant
 New York Yankees      +130  
Texas Rangers      +350  
Detroit Tigers      +350  
Tampa Bay Rays      +350
 
The New York Yankees are considered the runaway favourites for the Pennant, listed at a solid +130. They have an impressive offensive line-up with Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, and Nick Swisher, to name a few –the envy of many a team. Where weakness can be found is in pitching. Not enough of it. Ivan Nova has pitched well enough in C.C. Sabathia’s stead. But is he poised to breakout in the playoffs? I’m not sure that I would put all my eggs into their basket.

The Texas Rangers at +350 are an attractive alternative. Reeking of depth and quality with the likes of Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Mike Napoli and Ian Kinsler they can fire at all cylinders. Pitching was an issue last season though and that could be a problem again in these playoffs.

The Detroit Tigers, tipped also at +350, have a superstar in the making in Justin Verlander, making them a great value bet baseball betting, especially if Verlander rises to the occasion. Moreover, as closers go Valverde is one of the best. However, where the Tigers can come up short is on team ethos: they don’t always play as a solid unit –something that is evinced in an ERA that sits at 4.04 as a team.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the quintessential underdogs in this group but you wouldn’t know it based on the price tag of +350, putting them at par with the Rangers and Tigers. Nonetheless, the Rays secured the wild card in sensational style, rallying from a 7-0 deficit to send the Boston Red Sox out of contention in tears. Such an epic win should send the Rays on a wave of optimism into the playoffs and there is no telling what else they might have up their sleeves. They may be a long shot bet, but then again it wouldn’t be the baseball playoffs if not for a Cinderella run from someone.

AL betting picks: Tampa Bay Rays over Texas Rangers and New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers in round one. Rays over Yankees in round 2.

Week 4 Trio of Free Football Picks

Trio of Free Football Picks Puts Spotlight on Intriguing Week 4 Matchups

Thanks to the generous management at BetOnline, pro football betting fanatics everywhere get a trio of value-packed NFL picks that highlight the most intriguing matchups on the docket for Week 4.

Detroit at Dallas
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM ET

Odds
Dallas -2.5
Over/Under 46

The Scoop: Detroit used their big play connection of Stafford to Johnson to hook up for a big pass play in overtime en route to a thrilling  26-23 win over a collapsing Minnesota on Saturday.

Stafford completed 32 of 46 pass attempts for 378 yards with two TD passes and no picks despite the fact that the Lions played out as a 3-point road favorite Push.

Not only are the Lions tied for second in scoring, averaging a whopping 34.7 points per contest so far, but they’re also routinely shutting down their opponents, ranking third in scoring defense, allowing just 15.3 points per contest.

Dallas beat Washington 18-16 on Monday Night but failed to cash in for BetOnline gridiron gamblers as a 3.5-point home favorite. Dallas got a gutsy performance from quarterback Tony Romo as he completed 22 of 36 passes for 255 yards. More importantly, the ‘Boys got 115 rushing yards and one score from Felix Jones while limiting Washington to just 65 rushing yards in the win.

The blossoming Matthew Stafford has clearly outplayed his counterpart all season in this matchup and should do so again in this huge matchup. Stafford has thrown nine TD passes and just two interceptions this season compared to four TD passes and two picks from Romo.

Detroit has not allowed more than 23 points in any of its three games while the Cowboys have allowed at least that amount in two of their three games this season.

The Lions are 8-0-1 ATS in their L/9 games following a SU win, 3-0-1 in their last four road games overall and a blistering 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.

Dallas has gone just 1-4-1 ATS over its last six games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less and a dismal 1-6 ATS in their L/7 games as a home favorite.

The ‘Boys were extremely lucky to get past Washington the last time out and I say they won’t be so lucky against the Lions in this one.

I like Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the blossoming Detroit Lions to keep their perfect record intact by getting the outright road win over a Cowboys team that has looked mostly mediocre all season long.

Pick: Detroit Lions +2.5 Points

 Pittsburgh at Houston
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM ET

Odds
Houston Texans -4
Over/Under 45

The Scoop: Pittsburgh improved to 2-1 SU on the season by beating Indianapolis 23-20 in their Week 3 win but never came close to covering the football betting odds as a 10-point road favorite.

Houston fell apart in the second half of their 40-33 loss to Drew Brees and the Saints in Week 3, allowing a whopping 30 second half points in the deflating loss while narrowly failing to cover the spread as a 3.5-point road underdog.

This intriguing matchup pits the Steelers’ seventh-ranked scoring defense (18.3 ppg) against Houston’s seventh-ranked scoring offense (30.0 ppg) and longtime BetOnline football gamblers that know me, know that, more often than not, I always go with the better defensive team. However, I will admit that this contest is a tougher call because of Pittsburgh’s unimpressive start.

Nevertheless, I am going to encourage betting buffs to back the Pittsburgh Steelers in this contest, mostly because Houston will finally get a stiff defensive test after playing against three mediocre defensive teams to date.

I’m also not convinced the Texans have turned their defense around just yet under Wade Phillips, particularly after seeing them get torched for 40 points by Drew Brees et co.

Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its L/7 home games against a team with a winning record, 8-3 in their last 11 games as an underdog while Houston has compiled a disturbing 4-11 ATS mark in its last 16 games in the month of October and 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous contest.

I’m expecting the Steelers to make this contest one of their patented ‘ugly’ games where they mostly shut down the Texans and get just enough offense to get the narrow road win and ATS cover.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +4 Points

New England at Oakland
Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:15 PM ET

Odds
New England Patriots -4
Over/Under 55 

The Scoop: Talk about a tale of two teams: the perennially powerful New England Patriots took a surprising spanking at the hands of the revitalized Buffalo Bills in their 34-31 Week 3 loss while the perennially-rebuilding Oakland Raiders jumped all over the New York Jets in their 34-24 Week 3 win as former two-time Doak Walker-winning running back Darren McFadden went wild rushing for 171 yards and two TDs.

Now, both teams will come into this matchup looking to pick up a victory, but I’m thinking this matchup is more of a mismatch than anything else.

New England has topped the 30-point plateau in all three of its games this season while Oakland has done likewise in its last two games. The Pats are averaging a stellar 34.7 points per game this season while allowing 26.3 per game defensively. Oakland is averaging 30.7 points per game under new head coach Hue Jackson but are also giving up 27.3 points per game defensively.

I suspect the big difference in this contest will come at the quarterback position where Hall of Fame-bound signal-caller Tom Brady is head-and-shoulders above Jason Campbell.

I know Brady tossed a whopping four interceptions in New England’s loss to the Bills, but he’s also thrown 11 TD passes against five picks, compared to Campbell’s modest numbers – three TD passes and just one interception.

In addition to better play at the quarterback position, I also like New England’s defense to rebound in a big way and shut down the Raiders’ run-first offense, forcing Campbell to take to the air.

The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their L/5 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite. The Raiders have put up some eye-popping ATS numbers themselves in going 4-0 ATS in their last four games, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring over 30 points in their previous game and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Still, I don’t see the Patriots’ 10th-ranked run defense (91.7 ypg) letting the Raiders’ vaunted rushing attack run wild in this contest and that’s going to cause Oakland some problems on offense as they’re forced to rely on the right arm of Jason Campbell.

Keep it simple and back the New England Patriots to get the outright road win and very narrow ATS cover.

Pick: New England Patriots -4 Points

MMA on Versus 6 Preview: Johnson and Cruz Throw Down in Bantamweight Battle

UFC on Versus 6 Preview: Johnson and Cruz Throw Down in Bantamweight Battle

This Saturday, October 1, Demetrious Johnson takes on Dominick Cruz in a 5 Round battle at the Verizon Center in Washington D.C. Cruz is the big favorite, but are the odds justified?

Also on the main card is Stefan Struve vs. Pat Barry, Charlie Brenneman vs. Anthony Johnson and Mac Danzig vs. Matt Wiman. Below is a preview, with odds, of each of the four main card bouts for this MMA betting event.

Main Event

Demetrious Johnson +325 vs. Dominick Cruz -450

Is Cruz really a -450 fighter in the main event? Putting up $450 to score $100 in profit isn’t always the smart thing to do. There’s been some upsets in the world of MMA and a ratio of 1 to 4.5 is nasty-ugly, but Cruz is awesome. DC’s got an 18 and 1 record, will be conditioned to last the 5 rounds and has incredible punching power. The real difference, though, and the reason why Cruz might not be a very good bet against, is the fact that he avoids 89% of all takedown attempts against him. What’s Johnson’s strong suit on offense?  Takedowns, of course, where DJ uses the skill 71% of the time. Submissions are listed at 4% in Johnson’s skill breakdown. So, if the fight goes to the ground, who do you think will have the advantage? Cruz is a deserving solid fave in this match.

Main Card

Stefan Struve +160 vs. Pat Barry -200

Pat Barry is a vicious striker. In fact, his skill breakdown is 100% striking. Despite that, he only avoids 64% of strikes against him. Will that help the dog to get it done in this match? I think so. Struve has a 25 and 5 record compared to Barry’s 6 and 3 record.  Struve simply has more experience, when it comes to UFC at least, and at 6’ 11” compared to Barry’s 5’ 11”, height could be quite a factor. Struve can literally stand a foot away from Barry and use his kick-boxing ability to pile up points. If Barry tries to get inside, Struve may be able to get Barry on the ground where his submission skills are far superior to Barry’s. I like Struve in this matchup.

Charlie Brenneman +160 vs. Anthony Johnson -200

The taller Johnson should be the favorite in this matchup. Although he’s listed mainly as a striker, Johnson does have a decent ground game and his heart is unmatched. Johnson hadn’t fought since 2009’s loss to Josh Koscheck at UFC 106, until this past March at UFC Fight Night Live. All he did was out-strike the well-regarded Dan Hardy 20 to 2, take Hardy down 4 times to 0, and complete 3 passes against UFC’s self-proclaimed wild man. Does Brenneman have a shot?  Sure he does, but if Johnson is on his game, forget it. The wrestling based Brenneman could find himself in trouble early. 

Mac Danzig +175 vs. Matt Wiman -220

Lightweight 3 Rounds

In the first matchup of these two, Matt Wiman forced Mac Danzig to submit in Round 1, after dominating with the ground-and-pound.  Will things change on Saturday night? I’m not so sure that they will. Wiman goes into this bout off of an upset loss to Denis Silver in July. Wiman’s striking ability and ground game is much improved from their original matchup. Danzig took out Joe Stephenson at UFC 124 last December via KO, but that was his first fight since the Wiman loss. I’ve got to go chalky in this one because I don’t believe Danzig can stand toe-to-toe with M-dub and if the fight goes to the ground Mac will be toast.

Week 5 College Football Top Bets

College Football Week 5: Prime Matchups of Top Ranked Teams

There was good and bad last week as I hit under 69 in the Texas A&M/Oklahoma State contest where the total finished at 59, LSU destroyed the -5.5 point spread in their 47 to 21 victory over West Virginia, and Alabama who demolished Arkansas 38 to 14 to easily cover the 11 point spread. Then, there was Oklahoma who failed to cover the 20 point spread in their victory over Missouri.

Week 5 in college football betting brings us four more picks that will hopefully bring a few chachings to our ears! 

#13 Texas A&M at #18 Arkansas

When:  Oct. 1 at 12:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Texas A&M -2.5, Total 62   

Analysis:  The Aggies couldn’t hold a 20 point lead in their loss to Oklahoma State last Saturday. I don’t imagine they’ll run into those same issues on Saturday. A&M still allows only 60.3 yards per game on the ground, ranked 7th in college football, and Arkansas is not a pass on every down team. The Razorbacks prefer balance on offense, averaging 215 yards per game through the air and 115 yards per game on the ground.  The Razorbacks’ D gives up 444 yards and 38 points per game. I’m backing the Aggies in a contest between two teams looking for the bounce back even though the trends mostly favor Arkansas.

Pick:  Texas A&M

#15 Clemson at #10 Virginia Tech

When:  Oct. 1 at 6:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Virginia Tech -7, Total 49

Analysis: Is Clemson for real? The Tigers have beaten Auburn and Florida State back-to-back. Even though Clemson covered, both games were agonizingly close and the end result could have been much different if the Tigers’ hadn’t received all of the lucky bounces in both contests. Virginia Tech sports the best defense that Clemson has faced, and will probably face, this season. Sure, the Hokies haven’t played a team as good as Clemson yet, but still haven’t allowed a team to score more than 13 points against them either. I tend to favor the home team if they have the better defense. VA Tech definitely has the better defense, but giving up 7 points to the Tigers, because Lady Luck is so obviously on their side, is too hard to do.  I’ll play under the total and hope that the Hokies’ offense is somewhat anemic in this one but their D comes to play.

Pick:  Under 49

#2 Alabama at #12 Florida

When:  Oct 1 at 8:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Alabama -3.5, Total 45.5  

Analysis:  ‘Bama’s D is ranked #2 in the nation. It allows an incredible 184 total yards and 8 total points per game, but Florida’s offense is no slouch. The Gators average 460 yards and 40 points per contest. Not only that, but Florida’s D is ranked 4th in the nation when allowing only 9 points per game and 232 total yards. Florida has beaten both Tennessee and Kentucky this season, two SEC rivals, while the Tides’ best victory was last week against what I view as an overrated Arkansas squad. Florida gets ‘Bama in The Swamp and you’re giving me close to 4 points?  I’m all over it!

Pick:  Florida

#8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin

When:  Oct. 1 at 8:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Wisconsin -9, Total 56.5

Analysis:  Nebraska hasn’t impressed nearly as much as the Badgers have so far this season. Nebraska allowed Fresno State to score 29 against them in a 42 to 29 victory.  They also allowed Washington to score 28 against them in a 51 to 38 victory and played from behind in both games. Yeah, they will be playing behind in this game as well, but they’ve got zero chance of catching up to the Badgers. Zero. Wisconsin has scored 51, 35, 49 and 59 in their four games this season. They held Oregon State to a big fat nothing in their 35 to 0 victory over the Beavers, a team that averages 36 points per game. Wisconsin is simply awesome. They have the third ranked D in the nation, allowing 8.5 points per game, and the 6th ranked offense in the nation, averaging 48.5 points per contest, and get the Black Shirts at home. Sorry, Nebraska, the Badgers are going to give you the ultimate rude welcome to the Big Ten on Saturday.

Pick:  Wisconsin

Week 3 Pro Football – For the Night Owls

Are you an avid NFL betting enthusiast that also doubles as a night owl?

BetOnline NFL gridiron gamblers that love Sunday Night and Monday Night Football matchups, get a great chance at boosting the annual pro football betting bankroll just three weeks into the 2011 campaign.

That’s right pigskin players, thanks to the bettor-friendly honchos at BetOnline, you’re going to get a double dose of expert gridiron picks that will arm you with the insight you’ll need to cash in on the final two games of the on the upcoming Week 3 docket.

Let me get started in Indianapolis, where the winless Colts will play host to Ben Roethlisberger and the defending AFC-champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, Sep. 25, 8:25 PM ET
NFL Odds
Pittsburgh -10
Over/Under 39.5

The Scoop: The Steelers took the field in Week 2 looking to bounce back from their surprising 35-7 season-opening loss to AFC North division rival Baltimore – and the defending AFC champs performed just as expected.

Pittsburgh held Seattle to a paltry 31 rushing yards en route to an imposing 24-0 shutout win over the lowly Seahawks in Week 2 to emphatically cash in against the BetOnline NFL Odds as a huge 13.5-point home favorite.

Roethlisberger and company will look to duplicate their commanding performance from a week ago when they visit the reeling Colts. Indy has fallen into the ranks of the abysmal with perennial Pro Bowl quarterback Peyton Manning on the mend from recent neck surgery.

Not only are the Colts 0-2 SU on the season, but it’s how they’ve lost their opening pair of games that has to be most disconcerting to Colts’ backers.

Indianapolis was routed by AFC South division rival Houston 34-7 in its regular season opener as a 9-point road underdog to fall to a discouraging 2-5 ATS over its last seven games.  On Sunday, the lethargic Colts played as if they had no sense of urgency in falling to the rebuilding Cleveland Browns 27-19 while failing to cash in this time as a 1-point home underdog. Now, the Colts are in even bigger trouble as they get set to face the Steelers.

Indianapolis has won two of the last three meetings between these longtime AFC powers dating back to 2005 but lost each of the previous seven games against Pittsburgh going all the way back to 1991. The pair have split the last two meetings with the Away team winning outright to cover the NFL betting odds each time.

Of course, the Colts won’t have Peyton Manning available for this game (if at all this season) which makes this contest more of a mismatch than the riveting matchup everyone expected with Manning playing.

Now, with the outcome no longer in doubt (the Steelers will win, duh) all NFL gridiron gamblers need to know is whether Ben Roethlisberger and company will cover the spread for the second consecutive week as a double-digit favorite.

The answer?

Hell yeah!

Indianapolis has compiled a surprisingly weak 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven home games while also going 0-4 ATS in their last quartet of contests against their AFC conference rivals.

Pittsburgh has racked up a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in its last five games as a favorite while also going 4-1 ATS in their L/5 games in the month of September.

I’m encouraging BetOnline NFL gamblers everywhere to keep it very simple with this pick on Sunday night’s ‘mismatch’ matchup by backing the Pittsburgh Steelers to cash in against the spread with room to spare.

There’s no need to over-think whether or not the Steelers have enough offensive firepower to get the job done in this one, because their generally overwhelming defense will keep uninspiring veteran signal-caller Kerry Collins and the Colts from getting into the end zone very often, if at all.

Back the Steelers to win and cash in BetOnline football betting buffs!

NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -10 Points

 

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Monday, Sep. 26, 8:25 PM ET
NFL Odds
OFF
Over/Under OFF

The Scoop: The Dallas Cowboys (1-1 SU, 1-0-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U) will be playing at home when they host the NFC East division-rival Washington Redskins (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) in their prime time Week 3 Monday Night Football matchup but the ‘Boys have looked shaky at best through two games this season.

Dallas is coming off a thrilling 27-24 overtime win over stunned San Francisco 49ers in Week 3, but will have their hands full in this contest against an apparently explosive Redskins’ offense.

Washington remained unbeaten by eking out a narrow 22-21 win over Arizona in Week 2 after laying an emphatic 28-14 spanking on the Giants to kick off its 2011 regular season campaign two weeks ago.

The Skins failed to cash in for NFL gamblers as a 4.5-point home favorite to fall to 1-1 ATS while Dallas played out as a Push as 3-point road favorites to remain unbeaten against the spread so far.

These longtime rivals split last season’s two regular season meetings with each team winning at home. However, it was the Skins that cashed in for betting backers each time to move to a solid 3-1 ATS against Dallas in the last four meetings.

Now, while I’ve ripped Washington quarterback Rex Grossman as being nothing more than a serviceable journeyman, I’ve got to admit he has looked better than the Cowboys’ Tony Romo – and his similar numbers bear that fact out.

While Romo is ranked seventh in passing, Grossman checks in not far behind at 15th. More importantly, Grossman has not cost his team a game with costly turnovers. Romo was the direct reason the Cowboys lost their season opener with two incomprehensible turnovers late in Dallas’ regular season opener.

Washington is averaging just a half-point per game less than the ‘Boys offensively at 25.0 points per contest, but allowing just 17.5 per contest defensively to Dallas’ 25.5.

If you’re looking for an edge BetOnline NFL gamblers, then know that the Washington Redskins are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against the Cowboys and a blistering 7-2 ATS in the L/9 meetings against their NFC East divisional rivals overall.

The NFL Odds for this matchup haven’t been posted at the time of this writing because of the uncertainty surrounding whether Romo and his banged-up ribs will even play in this contest.

I like the Cowboys to win this contest straight up whether Romo starts or not, mostly because Dallas is desperate and veteran backup Jon Kitna is just about Rex Grossman’s equal in the quarterbacking department.

Washington played the banged-up Giants at home before hosting the defenseless Cardinals in Week 2. This week, Grossman gets a good look at a quality defense – and tosses at least one costly interception.

The road team is 5-1 ATS in this series, but Dallas has won four of its L/5 home games against the Skins and I like them to get another in this Week 3 Monday Night Football matchup.

NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys SU Win.

Week 4 – Best Bets Involving Top Ten Teams

It’s apparent that there are a number of Top 10 teams that football handicappers might be able to ride this entire season to sweet profits.  One of those teams is the Boise State Broncos, but that said Boise is a 32 point favorite over Tulsa on Sept. 24th. 

I can’t see myself offering up 32 points to Tulsa.  Instead, I’m going to go ahead and take a look at games involving #3 Alabama, #7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M, #2 LSU, and #1 Oklahoma. Check out the odds on these games and then get ready to win!

#14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama

When:  Sept. 24 at 3:30 pm EST

Betting Line:  Alabama -11.5, Total 50.5   

Analysis:  The trends favor both teams in this game.  For instance, ‘Bama is 8 and 3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and Arkansas is 10 and 1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Since neither team has a trend edge, I’ve got to dig deeper.  After doing so, it’s apparent to me that the Tide isn’t giving up enough points in this game.  Sure, Arkansas averages 47 points per game.  Yes, the Razorbacks’ O is ranked 11th in college football with 517.6 yards per game, but Bama’s D is amazing.  It allows, on average, 6 points per and a ridiculous 170 yards per.  Arkansas allowed Troy to score four TD’s and 28 points in the Hogs’ 38 to 28 victory in their last matchup.  ‘Bama figures to put up at least that on this Saturday while holding Arkansas to less than 17.  I like Alabama to cover.

Pick:  Alabama

#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M

When:  Sept. 24 at 3:30 pm EST

Betting Line:  Texas A&M -4, Total 69

Analysis:  Oklahoma State’s offense is ranked 2nd in the nation with 601 total yards per game and an awe-inspiring 52.3 point average per game.  Impressive, right?  No doubt, but I’m not sold on the Cowboys in this game.  Oh, sure, they can beat the spread: A&M is giving the real OSU 4 points, but I’m just not convinced that the Cowboys come close to putting up anything near their 52.3 average in this contest.  Texas A&M’s defense is ranked 15th in total yardage per game while giving up only 217 yards on average and the Aggies are ranked10th in points allowed per game while giving up only 10.5 points on average.  There are some nice trends supporting the OVER in this contest, but even nicer trends supporting the UNDER, which is 10 and 1 in Oklahoma State’s last 11 games as a road underdog and 16 and 5 in the Cowboys’ last 21 road games.  The UNDER is 6 and 1 in the Aggies last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and 6 and 2 in the Aggies last 8 home games.  Considering the trends and the fact that Texas A&M has a dynamite D, I’m going UNDER in this contest.

Pick:  Under 69

#2 LSU at #16 West Virginia

When:  Sept. 24 at 8:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  LSU -3, Total 50.5  

Analysis:  West Virginia almost blew it last Saturday against Maryland after going into halftime with a 27 to 10 lead.  The Mountaineers hung on for a 37 to 31 victory.  They’ll be lucky to get 27 in this entire game since they face, arguably, the best defense in the nation on Sept. 24th.  Not only did LSU hold Oregon, who averages 50.7 points per game, to 27 in their Week 1 victory, they’ve dominated since, allowing a total of 9 points in two games.  Against then-Top 25-ranked Mississippi State last Thursday night, LSU kept the Bulldogs out of the end zone and allowed only 6 points and less than 200 total yards on their way to a 19 to 6 road victory.  The Tigers are legit, folks!  They should absolutely rout West Virginia, whose D has allowed an average of over 18 points and 316 yards in three games versus Marshall, Norfolk State and Maryland.  Jump on the 3 point spread while you can my fellow football handicappers!

Pick:  LSU

Missouri at #1 Oklahoma

When:  Sept. 25 at 8:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Oklahoma -21.5, Total 56.5

Analysis:  Oklahoma’s D came up big versus Florida State last week, which should scare the heck out of Missouri fans.  Sooners’ QB Landry Jones was 18 out of 27 for 199 yards and a single TD with 2 picks in that game.  Missouri’s D isn’t nearly as good as the Seminoles’.  Not even close.  The Tigers allowed Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler to throw for 353 yards and 3 TDs in a 24 out of 32 performance.  What do you think Landry’s going to do to the Tigers’ sieve of a D?  To help those backing the Sooners, Oklahoma’s D is allowing only 13.5 points per game and a less than optimal (for this game at least) 323 total yards per game.  Oh, yes, this contest also takes place in Soonerland where Jones often times gives his best Tom Brady impression and the Sooner D is at times untouchable.  I’m not a fan of giving up more than 20 points in a game, but Missouri has no shot against the best team in the nation.

Pick:  Oklahoma

UFC 135: Rampage vs. Jones Free Picks

Looking to cash in on this weekend’s highly-anticipated UFC 135: Rampage vs. Jones card? Then you’re in luck BetOnline mixed martial arts gamblers!

Not only will the athletically-gifted Jon ‘Bones’ Jones look to take the next step in his evolution as one of the sport’s elite fighters and defend his light heavyweight crown for the first time, but he will do so against the popular veteran Quinton Rampage Jackson who is looking to get his title back, no matter who stands in his way.

In addition to the card’s headline fight, three more power-packed pairings are also highlighted in this quartet of expert UFC 135 betting picks.

UFC 135: Jones vs. Rampage
Saturday, Sept. 24, 9:00 PM ET
Live from the Pepsi center in Denver, CO

 UFC Odds
Quinton Jackson +400
Jon Jones -600

Name: Quinton Jackson
Nickname: Rampage
Record: 32 – 8 – 0 
Height: 6’1"  
Weight: 205lbs
Age: 33

Name: Jon Jones
Nickname: Bones
Record: 13 -1 – 0
Height: 6’4"
Weight: 205lbs
Age: 24

Fight Analysis: Jon ‘Bones’ Jones has won four consecutive fights since getting DQ’d against Matt Hamill back in 2009. At UFC 128 in March he stopped MMA veteran Mauricio Rua on a third-round TKO to win the UFC Light Heavyweight tile.

‘Rampage’ Jackson has won his last two fights and is coming off a unanimous decision win over the same Matt Hamill at UFC 130 in May.

Jackson has now been involved in four straight decision outcomes and six in his last seven fights and his inability to finish his opponents off recently could come back to haunt him in this bout against the younger and far more explosive Jones.

While Jackson has impressive boxing and wrestling skills, he is not as well-rounded as the multi-faceted Jones, who uses at least four techniques to generally overwhelm his opponents.

Jones is a Muay Thai, kickboxing, wrestling and Gaidojutsu specialist that has plenty of power to put away his mostly beefier opponents in stunning fashion.

Quinton Jackson has become a very good stand-up boxer as he’s aged, but he’s lost something off his once formidable wrestling skills and doesn’t fare quite as well on the ground as he once did.

Jones has recorded eight of his career wins via KO with three coming by way of submission while Rampage Jackson has only managed to finish off one fighter inside the bell in the last four years.

The edge in stand-up boxing and striking skills is very slight for Jackson, but Jon ‘Bones’ Jones is the superior fighter in every other area and should finish off his older opponent with another in what has become a long string of highlight-reel finishing moves.

Quinton Rampage Jackson won’t go down easily BetOnline UFC betting fanatics, but he will go down nevertheless. Back Jon ‘Bones’ Jones to win this one with a third-round TKO.

UFC 135 Pick: Jon ‘Bones’ Jones via third-round TKO.

UFC Odds
Matt Hughes +400
Josh Koscheck -600

Name: Matt Hughes
Record: 45-8-0
Height: 5’9”
Weight: 170
Age: 37

Name: Josh Koscheck
Record: 17-5
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 170
Age: 33

Fight Analysis: Two of the sport’s most recognizable names – and fiercest competitors – will get it on with title implications on the line. Two-time UFC welterweight champion Matt Hughes and TUF veteran Josh Koscheck both look to bounce back from losses in their last fights, and it could lead to a big payday for MMA bettors.

Hughes has been out of the Octagon since losing to B.J. Penn via a shocking K.O. at just 21 seconds of the First round at UFC 123 in November. Koscheck is also back after losing his bid for the legendary Georges St. Pierre’s welterweight title on a unanimous decision.

 The big question surrounding this matchup is how each fighter will fare in his first fight back in quite a while.

Personally, I like the younger Josh Koscheck to win this fight mostly because he looked very solid in five rounds against St. Pierre the last time out – while Matt Hughes looked lost and confused in his blink-of-an-eye loss to B.J. Penn.

Matt Hughes is undeniably one of the all-time great MMA fighters in UFC history, but it’s clear that he is a lot closer to the end of his career than the beginning. Josh Koscheck however is hungry to get back in the Welterweight title mix and a win here would go a long way toward helping him do just that.

Whether it comes via KO or submission, I like Josh Koscheck for the second round win and urge BetOnline MMA gamblers to back the gritty banger in this one!

UFC 135 Pick: Josh Koscheck via Second Round Stoppage

UFC Odds
Rob Broughton +275
Travis Browne -375
Heavyweight

Name: Rob Broughton
Record: 15-5-1
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 257 lbs
Age:  28

Name: Travis Browne
Record: 11-0-1
Height: 6’7”
Weight: 247 lbs
Age: 30

Fight Analysis: Rob Broughton has won five consecutive fights, including his third round submission win over Vincius Queiroz in his UFC debut at UFC 120 despite the fact that his opponent tested positive for steroids.

The England native specializes in freestyle wrestling and submission grappling but I believe he’s going to have his hands full with an undefeated Travis Browne in this heavyweight battle.

Browne, coming off an outstanding KO win over Stefan Struve in May, via Superman Punch at just 4:11 of the first round, has momentum. The blossoming Browne is huge at 6’7” and has some decent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills that compliment his boxing skills and nearly incomparable KO power. Not only has Browne never been beaten so far in his career, but he’s also gone the distance just three times, so I wouldn’t go expecting this fight to play out as a decision.

As a matter of fact, I’m going on record right now to encourage BetOnline MMA gamblers to ‘bet the farm’ that Browne cruises to victory by smacking Rob Broughton all around the Octagon like a red-headed stepchild.

The bottom line is that Travis Browne remains unbeaten and well on his way to a much bigger battle against a ranked heavyweight title contender at some point in the very near future while Rob Broughton absorbs another loss on his way to anonymity!

UFC 135 Pick: Travis Browne by First Round KO

UFC Odds
Takanori Gomi +210
Nate Diaz -280

Name: Takanori Gomi
Record: 32-7-0-1
Height: 5’8”
Weight: 155
Age: 32

Name: Nate Diaz
Record: 13-7
Height: 6’0”
Weight: 155
Age: 26

Fight Analysis: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and kickboxing specialist Nate Diaz has lost two straight fights coming into this battle, including his unanimous decision loss to Rory MacDonald at UFC 129 in April.

Similarly, veteran MMA fighter Takanori Gomi has lost two of his last three fights, including his second round submission loss to Clay Guida at UFC 125.

Gomi has actually dropped four of his L/6 fights after winning 10 straight from February of 2004 to December 2005 – and I genuinely believe he is going to get the big win here over the younger – and far less experienced – Nate Diaz.

Diaz has dropped back down to 155 pounds after getting man-handled in his most recent loss, but as stubborn as he is, I just don’t believe he is as multi-faceted enough in order to beat Gomi.

Gomi’s reputation as a dangerous puncher is well-noted and I believe he will have more than one good opportunity to cash in with knee-bending knockout punch, much like he did to Tyson Griffin just over a year ago on Aug. 1, 2010.

This bout has the potential to be a ‘Fight of the Night’ candidate – before a wiser – and more – Gomi finishes it by flooring Diaz in the second round and finishing him with a submission.

UFC 135 Pick: Takanori Gomi via Second Round KO

Week 3 Pro Football – Best Bets Don’t Always Involve the Best Teams

Sometimes the best bets in the wacky world of professional football don’t involve the best teams.  Already in Week 3, odds makers are sticking it to a few of the top teams in the NFL:  the Chargers are 14.5 point favorites over the hapless Kentucky Fried Chiefs, the Pats are 9 point faves over AFC East rival Buffalo, and the Steel Men are 10.5 point favorites over the Non Man-upping Indianapolis Colts.

Those spreads are too big for the average football handicapper to deal with.  It makes more sense to look for games where a more workable spread, say 7 points or less, is available.  Below are four games in the NFL’s Week 3 where such spreads exist.  

 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers

When:  Sept. 25 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Carolina -3.5, Total 43.5   

Analysis:  The Jags are 1 and 1 straight-up and Carolina is 0 and 2, but the Panthers are a solid 0 and 2 and impressive in their losses.  Cam Newton, the man that I so loved to hate when he threw and ran the pigskin for Auburn last season in college football, is impossible to hate so far in the pro game.  He has thrown for over 800 yards and tossed 2 TDs in just two games.  He’s also rushed for 71 yards and 2 TDs.  Jacksonville’s offense is ranked 28th in the league and they’re starting a rookie QB, meaning that they won’t be able to stay on the field and keep up with Cam and his favorite wideout Steve Smith.

Pick:  Carolina Panthers

 

Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans

When:  Sept. 25 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Tennessee -7, Total 42

Analysis:  Tennessee sports the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL after allowing the Jaguars to score only 16 points in a 14 to 16 loss in Week 1 and allowing the Baltimore Ravens to put up only 13 points in a 26 to 13 victory in Week 2.  Now, the Titans take on the high-scoring Denver Broncos who average…23 points a game?  Yes, UNDER the total looks very, very enticing, but I really can’t do it because the trends are all for the OVER in this contest:  16 and 5 in the Broncos’ last 21 games on grass, 4 and 1 in the Titans’ last 5 games on grass, and 4 and 0 in the last 4 head-to-head meetings.  Then again, Denver QB Kyle Orton will be without Eddie Royal for sure and both Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Lloyd are questionable in this game. Denver’s D is banged up, Marcus Thomas, Elvis Dumervil, and Champ Bailey are listed as questionable, Ty Warren is on I-R and D.J. Williams won’t be back until late September. I’m downright giddy about giving up only 7 points as long as the Titans can produce the Matt Hasselbeck to Kenny Britt hook-up in the passing game and the two-headed monster of Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer rushes the football for them on Sunday.

Pick:  Tennessee Titans

 

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals

When:  Sept. 25 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Cincinnati -1.5, Total 40.5  

Analysis:  San Francisco’s offense is ranked 31st in the NFL.  That’s right, thirty-freakin’-first.  TE Vernon Davis, who is considered one of the best tight-ends in the NFL, has only 7 catches this season for a measly 65 yards and no touchdowns.  Hey, Coach Harbaugh, if you want to win games, and not lose them in overtime to teams like the Dallas Cowboys, throw the damn ball to Vernon!  Okay, maybe, I’m more upset because Mr. Davis is on my fantasy team.  In any case, San Francisco’s offense is going to have to step it up in this one because Cincinnati’s is turning out to be pretty darn good.  RB Cedric Benson has rushed for 180 yards in two games and QB Anthony Dalton, in helping Cincy fans forget all about Carson Palmer, has produced two plus 100 QB ratings.  The receiver that Cincinnati picked up in the first round of this past April’s draft, A.J. Green, is a man among boys.  A.J. has 11 catches and 2 TD’s so far this season. Sure the 49ers D is respectable, did I already mention that Cincy’s D is ranked 9th themselves?

Pick:  Cincinnati Bengals

 

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

When:  Sept. 25 at 4:15 pm EST

Betting Line:  Arizona -3, Total 43

Analysis:  People can say whatever they want about Kolb vs Vick.  The Eagles decided to keep Vick, who suffered a concussion versus Atlanta the other night, and trade Kevin Kolb to the Arizona Cardinals.  Kolb has been fantastic for the Cards; throwing for 560 yards and racking up 4 TD passes to only 1 pick for a solid 110 QB rating.  It helps that Larry Fitzgerald is the best wide receiver in football.  The Cardinals’ D hasn’t been impressive so far this season, but Seattle’s offense is the worst in the NFL.  It’s scored 17 points in two games and is ranked 32nd.  The most horrific stat I see is that Seattle averages only 47.5 yards per game on the ground.  Ouch.  What the heck is Pete Carroll doing up there in the Great Northwest?  I have no idea, and, I’m guessing, neither does Pete.  ‘Zona rolls.

Pick:  Seattle Seahawks

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