Week 8 Pro Football – Monday and Sunday Night Free Picks

Week 8 Free Football Picks – Night Games

Week 8 Pro Football Trick or Treat – Boost The NFL Betting Bankroll …. Halloween Style

If you just love Halloween and the proverbial things that go bump in the night, then you’re going to love this week’s pair of NFL ‘Trick or Treat’ Halloween gridiron selections.

That’s right BetOnline pigskin betting enthusiasts, in an effort to help you maximize your betting bucks, we’ve got a pair of Week 8 NFL free picks designed to help you enjoy your unofficial Halloween holiday just as much as your neighborhood’s candy-loving children.

This week, I’ve got a pair of expert NFL picks on the NFL’s two weekly nighttime matchups. On Sunday night, the Philadelphia Eagles will play host to the Dallas Cowboys in a what should be a riveting NFC East divisional showdown just night before the streaking Kansas City Chiefs play host to the San Diego Chargers in their AFC West divisional matchup.

With both Week 8 contests set to get underway sooner rather than later, let’s get started gridiron gamblers.

Dallas at Philadelphia
Sunday, Oct. 30, 8:20 PM ET
NFL Odds
Philadelphia Eagles -3
Over/Under 50

The Scoop:

The Dallas Cowboys (3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U) snapped their two-game SU losing streak by pounding the lowly St. Louis Rams unmercifully in its 34-7 Week 7 win the last time out. Dallas cashed in for gridiron gamblers as a 14-point home favorite to move to 2-0 ATS over its last two games but just 2-2 ATS over its last four games overall.

The Cowboys will visit a Philadelphia Eagles (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U) that snapped its four-game SU and ATS losing streaks by beating Washington 20-13 as a 2.5-point road favorite in Week 6.

The well-rested Eagles are still in desperation mode coming into this contest as they sit a game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East and two games off the division-leading Giants (4-2 SU).

Philadelphia has lost both of its home games this season – and five consecutive regular season  home games dating back to last season, but the Cowboys are just 1-2 SU on the road this season – and the bigger the game – the more I believe there is a chance for a meltdown from beleaguered quarterback Tony Romo.

While Dallas has gone 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games and an even more impressive 5-0 ATS in its L/5 road games as an underdog, I just don’t see the ‘boys winning this game against an Eagles team that has a bit more talent on its roster – and a whole lot more desperation.

Philadelphia has always played very well under Andy Reid following a bye week and their 4-1 ATS mark in their last five games following a bye, tells me they’ll be more than prepared for Dallas in this contest.

I always say Tony Romo plays big in small moments and small in big moments and I expect more of the same in this divisional showdown as Philadelphia wins and narrowly covers the NFL betting line!

NFL Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 Points

San Diego at Kansas City
Monday, Oct. 31, 8:30 PM ET
NFL Odds
San Diego Chargers -3.5
Over/Under 44

The Scoop: The Kansas City Chiefs (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U) will come into their Monday Night Football divisional matchup against the San Diego Chargers (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U) on a very nice roll, having won three straight games, including their surprising 28-0 shutout win over the Oakland Raiders in Week 7.

Kansas City cashed in against the NFL betting line as a 3.5-point road underdog against the Raiders to move to a perfect 4-0 ATS over its last quartet of contests.

The Chargers were mostly man-handled in the second half of their 27-21 road loss to the Jets on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. The Bolts were held scoreless in the second half after taking a 21-10 lead into the half.

This matchup is a tale of two teams that are clearly different in their respective approaches to the game, which is what makes this pick a bit easier in my estimation. While the Chargers have one of the most talent-laden rosters in all of football, the Bolts continually underachieve to a high degree. Kansas City on the other hand, has made a habit out of overachieving for young head coach Todd Haley – and have bounced back very nicely after getting off to a dismal 0-3 start this season.

I like the Chiefs to continue their roll in this contest despite dropping three of their last four meetings against the Chargers overall. The Chiefs have won eight of its L/11 home games and 10 of its last 14 home games against San Diego. San Diego has compiled a discouraging 2-7-1 ATS mark in its L/10 games as a road favorite while Kansas City has gone 5-1 ATS in its L/6 games in the month of October and 9-4-1 ATS in its L/14 home games against the Chargers.

Not only that, but San Diego quarterback Phillip Rivers looks nothing like the quarterback that led the league in passing yards last season, so I expect that to play a factor in this contest as well. I like the Chiefs to get the narrow SU home win – and accompanying ATS victory.

NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 Points

Week 8 Trio of Pro Football Picks

Pro Football Week 8 Betting Preview

I’ve picked against the Detroit Lions for two weeks in a row, and I’ve been right on, but this week, I’m staying away from the Lions’ game.  I’m not sure that they will cover as 3 point faves against a fired up Denver Broncos squad on the road.  I do feel, though, that Broncos’ QB Tim Tebow may find the going tougher against Detroit’s blitzing D than he did versus Miami’s “open-door” defense.

Instead of concentrating on Detroit vs. Denver, I’m looking at Carolina vs. Minnesota, Cincinnati vs. Seattle and Cleveland vs. San Francisco in Week 8 of Football action.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

When:  Oct. 30 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Carolina -3.5, Total 47.5   

Analysis:  I wrote about how Cam Newton could have a field day against the Vikings’ D this Sunday in my Fantasy Football article.  So, yes, I am surprised that the Panthers are only -3.5 favorites versus the horrible Vikings.  Newton and wide receiver Steve Smith will make mincemeat out of Minnesota’s 29th ranked pass defense and if the Vikes decide to stop the Newton/Smith combo, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton will pound away and hurt the Vikings in the running game.  Although Carolina’s defense isn’t that great, it’s ranked 30th in the league and allows 26 points per game, it should be good enough to stop Vikings’ QB Christian Ponder and the Vikings’ passing attack with man-to-man coverage, meaning that the Panthers can stack eight in the box to take away RB Adrian Peterson.

Pick:  Carolina Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks

When:  Oct. 30, 4:15 pm EST

Betting Line:  Cincinnati -3, Total 37.5

Analysis:  The trends are awfully bullish on the Bengals in this game.  Cincy is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on the road.  There are okay trends for Seattle in this contest but they are 7-18-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.  The Bengals sport the #2 ranked D in the NFL.  Seattle’s defense is ranked 15th in the NFL, not bad, but the ‘Hawks’ O is ranked 31st in the league.  Seattle doesn’t have a player named A.J. Green catching footballs from their QB either.  Cincinnati, who has upset Cleveland, Denver and Buffalo straight up as a dog this season, should have no trouble covering a 3 point spread in Week 8 of pro football action.

Pick:  Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49’ers

When:  Oct. 30 at 4:15 pm EST

Betting Line:  San Francisco -9, Total 38.5  

Analysis:  I do believe that San Francisco will cover the spread in this game, but I don’t feel that backing the Niners is the best wager to make.  Although there are nothing but over trends when it comes to San Francisco, the stats say that the game goes under the total of 38.5.  Cleveland averages only 16.2 points per game.  San Francisco averages 27.8 points per game, but Cleveland’s D is ranked 4th in the NFL.  Since the Browns allow 119 yards per game on the ground but only 172 per game through the air, football handicappers should rest assured that Niners’ coach Jim Harbaugh is going to call a ton of running plays in this contest.  SF will try to control the clock.  Cleveland might not even score.  Under the total is the way to go in this one.   

Pick:  Under 38.5

UFC 137 – Penn vs. Diaz Too Close To Call

UFC 137 Betting Preview

Thanks to this trio of expert MMA picks, BetOnline mixed martial arts gamblers everywhere will have an excellent chance to cash in with at least three potentially winning wagers when UFC 137 gets underway live from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas on Saturday, Oct. 29 at 9:00 PM ET.

UFC Odds
Nick Diaz +105
B.J. Penn -135

Nick Diaz
Record: 25 – 7 – 0

The Scoop: The red-hot Nick Diaz has won an even 10 straight fights coming into this bout, including his impressive first round TKO over Paul Daley to defend his Strikeforce welterweight title for the third time. Diaz has won 13 bouts by KO, eight by way of submission and four more via decision while losing two fights by knockout and five, via submission.

Name :B.J. Penn
Record: 16 – 7 – 2 

The Scoop: Former UFC lightweight title holder BJ Penn returned to the welterweight division and apparently it suited him just fine as he knocked out veteran banger Matt Hughes at just 21 seconds of the first round to record the Knockout of the Night at UFC 123 and get back in the win column following a pair of consecutive UFC lightweight title matchup losses to Frankie Edgar. Penn has recorded seven KO wins, six via submission and three more by way of decision while also suffering two KO losses and five decision losses in his career, identical loss totals as Diaz.

Fight Analysis: Both of these fighters are hostile, mobile and agile – not to mention seriously multi-faceted – but BJ Penn holds a serious edge in experience against quality fighters and that will be the difference in this prime time battle.

Penn looked very good in laying a shocking smackdown on Matt Hughes in his last bout, but it’s a bit tough to gauge how good he really was in just 21 seconds. Still, I like Penn to beat the younger Nick Diaz in this bout, likely on a submission or via a decision win. Either way, BJ Penn is the right pick to win.

UFC 137 Pick: BJ Penn

 

UFC Odds
Cheick Kongo +110
Matt Mitrione -140

Name: Cheick Kongo
Record: 16 – 6 – 2

The Scoop: Kongo pounded the snot out of Pat Barry at UFC Live in June to record the Knockout of the Night at 2:39 of the first round. The gifted physical specimen has recorded 10 KO wins, along with three submissions and decisions in his career. Kongo has also been on the wrong end of one knockout, one submission and four decision losses.

Name: Matt Mitrione
Record: 5 – 0 – 0

The Scoop: The blossoming Matt Mitrione remained unbeaten by knocking out Christian Morecraft at 4:28 of the second round at UFC Live in June and has now dispatched four of his five career opponents by way of knockout.

Fight Analysis: I’ve been really impressed with Matt Mitrione in his brief MMA career, but I’ve got to keep it real for BetOnline MMA gamblers  by saying that he certainly hasn’t faced a fighter of Cheick Kongo’s caliber.

While I’m surprised that Kongo has suffered some of the losses he has in what has been a very solid career, I don’t think Matt Mitrione is going to be able to withstand Kongo’s world class kickboxing skills. Matt Mitrione has shown himself to be a gifted puncher that is capable of flooring any fighter with just one punch, but Cheick Kongo is just a bit too good to get caught up in his web. I hate to disappoint Matt Mitrione fans everywhere, but he’s going to suffer his first career loss in this bout.

UFC 137 Pick: Cheick Kongo

 

UFC Odds
Mirko Filipovic +220
Roy Nelson -300

Name: Mirko Filipovic
Record: 27-9-2

The Scoop: Cro Cop Filipovic has lost two straight fights, including his third round KO loss to Brendan Schaub at UFC 128 in March. Cro Cop has also lost three of his last five fights overall. Filipovic has recorded 20 career wins via KO, four via submission and three more by way of decision. The big Croatian has also been handed four KO losses in his career to go along with two more, via submission and three by way of decision.

Name: Roy Nelson
Record: 15-6-0

The Scoop: Roy Nelson has also lost two consecutive fights, including his unanimous decision loss to veteran Frank Mir at UFC 130 in May. Nelson has recorded eight wins via KO, five by way of submission and two, via decision. Nelson has only been knocked out once in his career while suffering five decision losses along the way.

Fight Analysis: While both of these fighters have lost two straight fights coming into this matchup, I like Roy Nelson to win this fight after being on the wrong end of two straight unanimous decision losses.

While I’ve always like Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic (who doesn’t love that nickname?) the veteran fighter is clearly aging quickly and I just don’t have a lot of confidence in a gut that’s been knocked out cold in each of his last two fights. Basically, picking the winner of this fight involves backing the lesser of two evils – and that would be the slightly younger – and much more rotund – Roy Nelson, via third round KO.

UFC 137 Pick: Roy Nelson via Third Round KO

Friday Night Free Hockey Picks

Free Pro Hockey Picks – October 28

Friday NHL Picks: Detroit to stop San Jose streak, Carolina to bounce back against Chicago

The Central Division rivalry between the Detroit Red Wings and Chicago Blackhawks takes centre stage on Friday night as the Red Wings look to bounce back after two defeats when they host the San Jose Sharks, and the Chicago Blackhawks aim to stay ahead of the Red Wings with a win over the Carolina Hurricanes.

San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings 7:30 pm EDT 

Betting Analysis: After a slow start to the season – one win in the first four games – the Sharks seemingly found their mojo with a 4-3 win over New Jersey Devils last Friday and haven’t looked back since. Now riding a three-game winning streak, capped on Tuesday night with a 3-1 away victory over the Nashville Predators, the San Jose Sharks will aim to make if four in a row at the hallowed Joe Louis Arena.

The Sharks can upset the Red Wings at home because…

The San Jose Sharks 4-3-0 (Road: 3-1-0) have been better on the road than they have been at home, where they are a measly 1-2-0 on the season, but bearing in mind that they were an excellent road team last season, this traveling form is just a continuation of where they left off.

Don’t be fooled by their overall record, which puts them 20thoverall in the league and 11th overall in the Western Conference.  Clearly, through the last three games, the Sharks have been playing as a bona fide playoff contender.
In the off-season, the offensive line was revamped and although the Sharks started the season with a 6-3 win over Phoenix, this frontal makeover needed time to really gel – case-and-point: three straight losses following the victory over Phoenix. Since then, they won three in a row and Joe Pavelski leads the team with 8 points (six goals and two assists) while Joe Thornton nips at his heels with six points (1 goal and five assists), four of which were gained in the last four games. Right wing Martin Havlat is yet to score for his new team but has three assists; surely, it’s only a matter of time before the talented Czech finds his scoring arm.

Detroit Red Wings can win because…

Jimmy Howard is reportedly back and assumed to be starting the game on Friday – a fact that has to inject confidence into their odds to win over the Sharks. Howard has been flawless so far, with a 4-0-0 start for the Red Wings and a solid 1.72 GAA and .933 save percentage.

True, the Red Wings are on a two-game losing streak going into Friday’s game but that’s entirely down to journeyman goalie Ty Conklin, who was called to duty when Howard had to rush to his wife’s bedside for the birth of their son James on Sunday.

Now that Howard appears to be back, why bring up ancient history. No need to talk about those disgusting defeats. I mean, why talk about the 7-1 debacle against the Washington Capitals or the subsequent inexplicable 4-1 defeat to a winless Columbus Blue Jackets when it’s down to Conklin being in net. Wipe the slate clean and start over with the Red Wings as deserved home favourites.

Pick: Expect the Red Wings to play better than they did in front of Conklin with Howard back in the posts and to take the win. The San Jose Sharks are not a team to go down without a fight, so I expect it to be a close game, one or two-goal margin. Finally, when two offensive-minded and big-hitting teams battle for the win the game could easily go ‘Over’ on the totals.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Carolina Hurricanes

Betting Analysis: The Carolina Hurricanes take an unimpressive 3-3-3 mark on the season into their next game, a clash against the former Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks, who boast a solid 5-1-2 mark, which includes a (shootout) win over the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday night that saw them move ahead of the Red Wings in the Central Division.

The Canes might win because…

The Carolina Hurricanes have see-sawed their way through the first nine games of the season, losing the first three, winning the next three and losing the last three. If this trend were any indication they are due to start another three-game winning streak. Of course, such an unequivocal approach can’t be taken to hockey betting or, for that matter, to a team’s form.  
Then there is home form, which is typically a plus for any side. In the Canes case, it amounts to a 1-1-1 mark on the season. Let’s face it, that is rather mediocre and hardly revealing of what is to come down the stretch.

The Chicago Blackhawks must win because…

The Blackhawks are enjoying top spot in the Central Division right now and while it is early in the season it is the best spot to be in and don’t they know it. Last year, they barely squeaked into the playoffs and we all know how that run ended. Speaking of which, is it any surprise that the Blackhawks welcomed back on to the roster 2010 Stanley Cup winning teammates Dustin Byfuglien and Andrew Ladd?

Pick: You can bet the Blackhawks will be looking to maintain the edge in their division by going for the win in Carolina. The way the Canes have been playing is not going to inspire any fear in the audacious Blackhawks. Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Dave Bolland and Jonathan Toews have been racking up the points at will, combining for 33 in total and I don’t even think this will be a tight game. Look for the Blackhawks to blow out the Canes; take the Over.

Week 9 College Football Free Picks

College Football Week 9 Free Picks

College Football Picks and Predictions

Another week of exciting College Football betting action awaits at BetOnline Sportsbook so without too much fuss, let’s just get down to the business of picking.

College Football Betting Line:
Michigan State Spartans +4  -110  +160 48½ O-110 U-110
Nebraska Cornhuskers -4  -110 -190       48½ O-110 U-110

Betting Analysis: # 11 Michigan State at # 14 Nebraska is a much-anticipated clash, at least if you are a Spartans fan eager to back your side towards capping an outstanding month of football. The Spartans (6-1, 3-0 Big Ten) are riding a four-game winning streak since losing to Notre Dame 31-13 late in September. In the first two games, they held opponents to single digits – 45-7 over Central Michigan and 10-7 over Ohio State. And in the subsequent two, they proved to be the better team as they went on to deserved victories – a 28-14 win over in-state rivals Michigan and a 37-31 win over #4 Wisconsin.
The Cornhuskers (6-1, 2-1 Big Ten) have lost just one game this season, early in October against the Badgers. Since then, they have won two-in-a-row and they’ll be looking to extend that form against the hot Spartans. Nebraska is looking to make some significant strides in the Conference so the pressure is on, especially with home advantage.

Pick: This pick is all about underdog love. The Spartans go into this game as the +160 dogs but that is largely down to the fact that they are the road team here and not for any lack of ability. I mean, they have all the momentum on their side right now. Moreover, their defense has been impressive giving up only 13.7 points per game so far. Granted, the Cornhuskers offense is like lightning and could give the Spartans’ defense something to think about. So the best pick here is to clean up with the Spartans to win a +160 and the game to go over 48 ½ on the totals at -110.

College Football Betting Line:
Clemson Tigers -3½  -110   -170    63½ O-110 U-110
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +3½  -110  +150    63½ O-110 U-110

Betting Analysis: The Clemson Tigers are undefeated across the board with an 8-0, 5-0 ACC record and they hope to extend this unblemished record against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday. In fact, if the market were any indication they are an almost certain bet to win because despite being on the road they are firmly installed as the favourites at -170 to win while the home team are tipped as the significant puppies at +150. The question that must be asked: Can the Yellow Jackets mastermind the huge upset?

It’s not entirely impossible as the Yellow Jackets offense has been quite solid, averaging an amazing 321.1 yards per game. Problem is though that the Yellow Jackets (6-2, 3-2 ACC) aren’t going into this game high on confidence, having dropped their last two clashes.

Pick: Fact is, the betting public is heavily leaning towards a Clemson win and at the risk of being a follower, I kinda have to agree. Of course, there is nothing essentially wrong with going against the tide and betting on a home win but I think football fans would be better served taking the Yellow Jackets to cover the spread here.

College Football Betting Line:
Oklahoma Sooners-13½  -110      -550      58½ O-110 U-110
Kansas State Wildcats +13½  -110 +425 58½ O-110 U-110

Betting Analysis: In perhaps the lopsided market of this weekend’s batch of College Football games, the #9 Oklahoma Sooners (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) and the #8 Kansas State Wildcats (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) collide. Despite a narrow 41-38 loss to Texas Tech, the Sooners go into this next clash as the hot –and I mean HOT – faves, listed at a whopping -550. At the same time, the Wildcats – who are hosting no less – are tipped at an outrageous +425 – and this price despite remaining undefeated on the season.

The way the public is talking about this game can be summed up in two words: instant classic. Heck, ESPN is going to be on hand. High expectations precede this game and its outcome but it remains to be seen whether the bookies have it right.

Pick: Kansas St. is fired up and eager to stay on track with Oklahoma as Big 12 leaders. They have just as much invested in the outcome as the Sooners do, so it’s rather perverse of the markets to assume they won’t put up a good fight. What’s with the +425 price tag?  While it’s not for me to comment on market wisdom what I can comment on is bargains. If the bookies have it wrong, having seriously underestimated Kansas St. , then college football fans stand to really clean up. Frankly, you’d be crazy not to lay a bet at +425 for an undefeated team. Of course, the Sooners have history on their side, having not lost back-to-back Big 12 games in over a decade. But there is a first time for everything. I am going with a Kansas State win and the Sooners to cover the spread. Expect a close one.

Fantasy Football Week 8: Who to Start and Who to Sit

Fantasy Football Week 8 pro Football

So, that wasn’t as positive as I thought it would be. 

When it comes to Fantasy Football, and sports betting in general, I’m never afraid to go against my team.  I went against the New Orleans Saints this past Sunday thinking that Indianapolis QB Curtis Painter would exploit the Saints pass defense.  My usual starter, the incomparable Tom Brady, was on a bye.  I wrote in an article to my fellow FF players to sit Denver’s QB, Tim Tebow, and to start Painter.

Unless you’re the only NFL fan left on the planet that lives in a cave, you know what happened.  Drew Brees and the Saints torched the Colts for 62 points.  The Colts scored 7 and Painter yielded an incredible -1.93 points in my league.  Suffice to say, I suffered a horrible, ridiculously bad, beat.

Touchdown Jesus, that’s Tebow, racked up 21.55 points in his first game as the starter for the Broncos in my league. Forgive me new football lord, I knew not what I did!

Fantasy Football:  Who to Start and Who to Sit

QB:  Start Cam Newton, Sit Alex Smith

Cam Newton, the Carolina Panthers’ QB savior, has been more than impressive this season.  The Panthers are sitting at 2 and 5.  Not great, but not bad for the worst team in the NFL last season because Carolina lost to New Orleans by only 3 points, Green Bay by only 7 and Chicago by only 5.  Newton has thrown for 2,103 yards and 8 touchdowns and has rushed for 266 yards and 7 touchdowns.  This Sunday, Newton and Carolina take on the Minnesota Vikings who are ranked 29th against the pass.  The Vikings are ranked 4th against the rush, but Newton threw for 256 yards and a TD for a 125.5 QB rating against Washington’s 11th ranked pass defense.  If the Vikings commit to stopping the run, Cam will torch them through the air.  If the Vikings try to stop the pass, Cam will run all over them.  Either way, Cam Newton owners should be giddy, like they should be most Sunday’s, about his point prospects.

Smith, the San Francisco 49’ers signal caller, is more Troy Aikman, doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, puts up just okay numbers, as it is, but this Sunday he figures to be no more than an up the middle or toss for the sweep QB.  The Cleveland Browns, the Niners’ opponent, ranks 2nd against the pass.  The Browns allow, on average, 172 passing yards per game.  Cleveland is ranked 19th against the rush allowing 119 yards per game meaning that SF running backs Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter could put up points.  Sit Alex Smith if you can.

RB:  Start Rashard Mendenhall, Sit Beanie Wells

Pittsburgh’s ultra-talented RB Rashard Mendenhall has not been as kind to fantasy owners as we (yes, he’s on my team) had hoped.  RM is more reminiscent of RIM, the stock ticker for the Blackberry maker that has lost close to 57% of its value this season, then a Top 6 Fantasy Football pick.  That should change somewhat this Sunday.  Mendenhall should perform more like he did against the Jacksonville Jaguars two weeks ago, when he produced 15.73 points in my league, then how he performed against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7 when he provided only 2.47 points.  The New England Patriots, Pitt’s opponent, give up only 101.9 yards per game on the ground on average and are ranked in the Top 8 against the run, but the Pats have to shut down Big Ben and the Steelers’ passing game or they’ll end up putting Brady and the Patriots’ offense into a corner.  And, as everybody knows, nobody puts Baby Brady in a corner!  

You’ve got to love Fantasy Football, right?  Most FF players wrote off Beanie Wells this offseason.  What a mistake that was.  The Arizona Cardinals running back has produced a 4.6 average for 423 yards and 6 touchdowns in only 6 games.  Great stuff so far, but I’m against starting Beanie this Sunday versus the Baltimore Ravens.  Yes, the Ravens’ vaunted D allowed Maurice Jones-Drew to rush for 135 yards this past Monday night, but it kept MJD out of the end zone and allows, on average, only 85.8 yards per game on the ground.  Expect the Ravens to return to their glorious stop the run ways on Sunday.  I advise sitting B-Dub.

WR:  Start A.J. Green, Sit any New Orleans’ WR not named Marques Colston

A.J. Green is playing like a veteran wide receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals.  He’s not playing like the rookie that he is.  What’s even more impressive is that Green’s QB is also a rookie, Andy Dalton.  A.J. has 29 catches for 456 yards, a 15.6 average, and 4 touchdowns this season in only 6 games.  Seattle’s D is surprisingly decent, ranked 20th against the pass this season, and 11th against the rush.  Green has his work cut out for him, but since Cincy’s starting RB, Cedric Benson, will be out versus the ‘Hawks because of a one game suspension, he figures to get plenty of looks and he’s one of those special wide-receivers that can easily beat the double-team.  Start A.J. Green with confidence in Week 8.   

New Orleans Saints’ QB Drew Brees has the reputation for spreading the ball around.  Maybe, overall, that’s true, but in the past couple of weeks, that hasn’t really been the case.  In the past two weeks, Colston has 216 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns off of 14 catches.  When Drew isn’t throwing the pigskin to Marques, he’s throwing it to tight-end Jimmy Graham.  So, there’s no reason to consider starting Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, or Devery Henderson this week.

Week 7 Football Night Games – Making Bank Off Mismatches

Week 7 Football

Two interesting games are on NFL’s night menu this week. First, the winless Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints on Sunday night (can they possibly lose yet another game?) and then, the Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night.

Indianapolis at New Orleans

If you are a Colts fan, you’re probably not thrilled about this upcoming weekend of football (heck, the season entirely). What with your Colts on atrocious form, running around the field like a bunch of harassed sheep without star QB Peyton Manning to lead them, I don’t blame you. Winless in six! Are you kidding me?

The Colts (0-6, 0-3 on the Road) start to the season is one of their worst starts; four short of their record 0-10 start on the 1997 season.

If there was ever any speculation about how bad the Colts might be without Manning, I think the answer is obvious. Glaringly obvious. The loss of Peyton Manning appears to have obliterated the team’s equilibrium and erased any confidence they might have felt going into this season.

Colts fans however can take some encouragement (and I mean this in the loosest context) from the fact that their team has lost by ten points or less in the last five games – a sign that they are adjusting (if slowly) to Manning’s absence and it’s only a matter of time before they find their mojo to record a first W.
 
New Orleans (4-2, 2-0 at Home) meanwhile is enjoying a solid start to the season, only suffering their first defeat in five games last weekend. Drew Brees set an NFL record when he topped 350 yards for the fourth consecutive time last Sunday, a record that was overshadowed by three costly interceptions, including one in the end zone with 3:16 remaining on the clock.

In spite of costly mistakes Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the game and he in particular must be excited at the prospect of coming up against the Colts this weekend. I mean, imagine what records he possibly set in this game!

Football Betting Verdict: The Saints are eager to bounce back after last weekend’s defeat and a flailing Colts side that has trouble closing games seems to be just what the doctor ordered. When it comes to scoring, the Saints are a good bet to rack up the points. Watch for the Saints to terrorize the Colts fragile ego further and Brees to put on a one-man show. Bet on the Over in this Sunday Night Week 7 matchup.

Baltimore at Jacksonville, 8:30 PM EST Monday

The Baltimore Ravens (4-1, 1-1 on the Road) descend on the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5, 1-2 at Home) on Monday night looking to extend their winning streak to four in a row. Can an unconvincing Jaguars side break that streak and upset the overconfident Ravens?

The Ravens are flush off a 29-14 win over Houston Texans last weekend. After a so-so first half, the Ravens took it up a notch in the second, outscoring the Texans 19-7 and stifling the solid Texan offense to less than 300 yards in total offense.
The Jaguars are meanwhile off a narrow 17-13 defeat to Pittsburgh last weekend. The Jaguars missed a huge opportunity in that game however as going into the locker rooms at half time, the Steelers led 17-3 and while they did claw their way back into the game the clock ran out. Still, not sure what was worse: the Steelers offense, which was a no-show in the second half, or the Jaguars team as a whole that failed to capitalize on that abominable lack of focus by the Steelers. 

Football Betting Verdict: As far as markets are concerned, nobody seems to be buying what the Jaguars are selling right now and that is telling. It seems that smart money is on the Ravens to win and one thing is certain, you won’t see the Ravens mentally checking out of the game as the Steelers did. On the contrary, their chomping at the bits to take advantage of the Jaguars inexperience and youth to record a fourth straight win. The Ravens to win and cover convincingly.

Fantasy Football Week 7: Who to Start and Who to Sit

Fantasy Football Week 7

Fantasy Football: Who to Start and Who to Sit

I’m a huge Fantasy Football fan.  So big in fact, that I refuse to give up one of my tight-ends, Vernon Davis or Anthony Hernandez, in order to play a TE this Sunday.  I’m playing without a TE and I have to start a TE.  There’s no flex in my league.  Since my QB, the magically handsome Tom Brady, is also on a bye, I’m predicted to lose this week.

No worries!  I picked up a QB that plays out of that long forgotten city of Indianapolis, Curtis Painter.  Painter makes my list of who to start and who to sit this weekend.  Keep reading to find out who else I like to start and sit!

QB:  Start Curtis Painter, Sit Tim Tebow

In the battle of young quarterbacks, there is no question who wins this weekend.  Indianapolis Colts’ QB Curtis Painter has thrown for 805 yards, 5 touchdowns, and only 1 pick this season.  He faces a New Orleans’ pass defense that gives up 256.3 yards per game through the air. Play wide receivers Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne and tight-end Dallas Clark if you have them as well.  I’m thinking close to 300 yards and at least 2 touchdowns out of Painter against that Saints’ sieve of a D. Now the Colts won’t win the game, but Painter will put up good numbers.

I’m not a Tebow hater like my friend Jacob who hopes that Touchdown Jesus goes for 4 out of 30 for 110 yards, no touchdowns, and 4 picks against Miami, but I do feel that Tebow could, well, go for 4 out of 30 for 110 yards, no touchdowns, and 4 picks against Miami.  No, seriously.  Tebow is not Cam Newton.  He doesn’t have Newton’s arm.  He’s not as big or as fast as Newton and he can’t read defenses as well as Newton.  Trust me on this.  Tim faces a decent Miami D on the road this Sunday.  Put him on the bench.

RB:  Start Michael Turner, Sit Maurice Jones-Drew

Atlanta RB Michael Turner has already rushed for 500 yards and 6 touchdowns, and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry.  Detroit’s D is giving up 129.5 yards per game on the ground.  Frank Gore rushed for 141 yards and a TD against it last Sunday.  The San Francisco 49’ers rushed for a total of 203 yards as a team against Detroit’s D.  Is there any doubt that Turner is a must start this weekend?

Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew has run very well this season, he already has 575 yards, but he’s saddled with a rookie QB, Blaine Gabbert, meaning that the Baltimore Ravens are going to key in on MJD on Monday night.  Baltimore allows only 76.6 yards per game to their opponents on the ground as it is.  Expect maybe 50 yards and 0 touchdowns out of Jones-Drew in Week 7.

WR:  Start Anquan Boldin, Sit Vincent Jackson

Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin has only 23 catches for 354 yards and a single TD this season, but he’s sitting on a big one, I think.  The Ravens face the Jaguars on Sunday and Jacksonville’s pass defense showed signs of weakness last Sunday.  Although the Jags’ pass D held Steelers’ QB Big Ben to 200 yards and a single TD, it did give up a 48 yard catch to Mike Wallace and 32 yard catch to Emanuel Sanders.  It also gave up close to 150 yards to Pitt RB Rashard Mendenhall.  The Jags will have to concentrate on shutting down Ravens’ RB Ray Rice leaving the edge and middle open for the exceptionally talented Boldin.  Start him and look for at least 1 TD and 100 yards receiving out of the big WR.

San Diego’s offense is fantastic, but the New York Jets, whom SD faces this Sunday, is very good at shutting down one or two players.  This Sunday, the J-E-T-S figure to shut down Chargers’ WR Vincent Jackson. Why? Because it has to.  Jackson is an elite wide-out and NYJ always puts their best cornerback, Darrelle Revis, on the opposing teams best WR.  Besides, Chargers’ coach Norv Turner loves to spread the ball around, running backs Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews are starters in most leagues, and QB Phillip Rivers isn’t afraid to throw to numerous receivers.  I’d only play VJ if I had to.

Game 2 Baseball Championship Series Is a Can’t Miss Bet

Baseball Championship Series

Championship Series Betting Breakdown – Powerful Texas in Desperation Mode for Game 2

BetOnline MLB baseball bettors need to know one very important thing before the start of tonight’s Game 2 matchup of the 2011 Championship Series.

After losing Game 1 3-2 to the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals (98-76 SU, 93-75-6 O/U, 83-91 RL), the Texas Rangers (103-70 SU, 91-73-9 O/U, 99-74 RL) and their collection of powerful hitters are in absolute ‘desperation mode’ as they get set for tonight’s Game 2 showdown.

However, it is that desperation – and Texas’ collection of gifted hitters – that makes me believe tonight’s Game 2 matchup is closer to a lock than the nail-biting affair the two teams staged on Wednesday night.

2011 Baseball World Series
Game 2: Live from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO
Oct. 19, 8:05 PM ET
TV: FOX

The Texas Rangers are favored to win this year’s World series, but they were also favored to beat the San Francisco Giants last season and that didn’t happen, so nothing is ever a given in the world of professional sports.

Besides, the more I think about it, the Cardinals remind me a lot of last year’s Giants, with their underappreciated lineup that consistently overachieves. Nevertheless, I think last year’s experiences will help the Rangers this time around. 

The Cardinals took Game 1 as Chris Carpenter out-dueled C.J. Wilson in a fairly tight and interesting ballgame.

Mike Napoli went 1-for-2 at the plate with one walk and blasted a two-run jack for Texas. Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre each added two hits in the loss, thought Texas recorded just six total hits overall.

Lance Berkman went 2-for-4 with two RBIs and Allen Craig added another RBI that turned out to be the game-winner as St. Louis was also held to just six hits.

MLB Game 2 Odds
Texas Rangers -1½ +140 -120
Colby Lewis – L
St. Louis Cardinals +1½ -160 +100
Jamie Garcia – L
Over 8 -115
Under 8 -105

Analysis: Tonight, Texas will hand the ball to talented right-hander Colby Lewis (15-11, 4.37 ERA) while the Cardinals counter with left-hander Jamie Garcia (13-9, 3.72 ERA).

Lewis has gone 2-1 with a solid 3.57 ERA over his last three starts while Garcia has gone 0-2 with a high 5.74 ERA over the same span.

Lewis limited Tampa Bay to one run in six innings in his only appearance in the ALDS but gave up four runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings of a 5-2 loss to Detroit in the ALCS.

Garcia gave up three runs in seven innings in his only appearance against Philadelphia in the NLDS before getting pounded by Milwaukee for six runs on six hits – including two home runs – in just 4.0 innings of a 9-6 loss to the Brewers. Garcia did look a lot better in holding the Brewers to one run in 4.2 innings in his last start, though he did give up a whopping seven hits during the brief stint.

The Texas Rangers should have a good shot to even the Series tonight as they’ve gone 7-40 on the road this season, nearly an identical mark to St. Louis’ 49-38 home record this season.

I also like the fact that Texas’ Colby Lewis has been rock-solid on the road this season. Lewis recorded nine of his 14 wins on the road this season while posting an ERA nearly two runs lower than his home ERA (3.43 ERA in 17 road starts). Lewis has been rock-solid in the month of October the last two seasons, going 4-1 with a stellar 2.37 ERA during the span.

The good news for baseball bettors that like St. Louis is the fact that Jamie Garcia has gone 9-4 with a fine 2.55 ERA in 15 home starts this season.

Still, I like the Rangers to get the narrow SU win tonight by getting a few runs off of Garcia and a few more off of the Cardinals’ overachieving bullpen.

Texas is 4-0 in its L/4 playoff games as a favorite and 6-1 in their L7 games against a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 10-3 in Colby Lewis last 13 starts as a favorite and 4-1 in the right-hander’s L/5 starts as a road favorite.

St. Louis won’t go quietly into the night, having gone 9-2 in their L/11 games against a team with a winning road record and 19-7 in their L/26 games against a right-handed starter.

St. Louis has also gone 11-1 in Jamie Garcia’s last dozen home starts against a team with a winning record, but once again baseball bettors, I like the ‘sheer desperation’ factor to play a big role in Texas winning tonight!

MLB Pick: Texas Rangers SU Win  

Week 8 College Football Free Picks

Week 8 College Football

No. 6 Wisconsin at No. 16 Michigan State (ESPN/ ESPN3)

Wisconsin has been coasting somewhat this season; few teams have managed to really challenge them in any meaningful way and they’ve had the fortune to play almost every game in Madison. That should change with a visit to Michigan State this weekend.

Wisconsin is 6-0 (2-0 Big Ten), a record that includes leading the nation with an average of 50.2 points and an eighth overall ranked offense with 523.2 yards per game, is enjoying one of its best starts ever. Certainly, on paper they appear impressive.  Bearing in mind that this record is underlined by home dominance and only one game – granted a 49-7 win over Northern Illinois – was played on the road, the question must be asked: how impressive are they really?

Michigan State is enjoying a three-game winning stretch which includes a 28-14 win over in-state rivals Michigan last weekend. Overall, the Spartans are ranked second in total defense and have stacked impressive numbers that include 21 sacks, 8 interceptions and holding opposing QBs to an 84.4 rating – stats that instil fear and loathing in opponents.

Football Betting Verdict: By descending on Michigan State, Wisconsin will be entering the first truly hostile territory on its schedule. The Badgers haven’t seen a defense as good as MSU’s is but neither have the Spartans come across an offense as complete as the Badgers. The Spartans second-ranked defense gives up 186 yards per game, but can it stop a Badgers offense that’s averaging over 50 points per game? If you subscribe to the school of thought that dictates: defence wins a game, then the answer is ‘YES’. If the Spartans’ offense can get its ground and air game going, they should give Wisconsin a close contest, definitely enough to cover the 7-point spread.

Pick: MSU to Cover

Tennessee at No.2 Alabama (ESPN 2/ESPN3)

Tennessee (3-3, 0-3 SEC) is getting no favors from the schedule as it heads towards yet another tough task in No.2 overall Alabama (7-0, 4-0 SEC).

Last week, the Tennessee Volunteers were trounced 38-7 by the No.1 ranked LSU Tigers and much of the same is expected here. Indeed, this is Alabama’s game to win and (most likely) they’ll win with little effort, conveniently before the looming clash against LSU the coming week.

Alabama is coming off another impressive performance, a 52-7 routing of Ole Miss last weekend. The Crimson Tide wasn’t tested at all as it easily held the Rebels to 141 yards of total offense and just nine first downs. Heisman hopeful Trent Richardson carved 183 yards and four touchdowns (improving his seasonal total to an insane 15 touchdowns) against the Rebels.

Football Betting Verdict: With such a lopsided victory expected the betting value is not in the outright win markets (it’s an almost foregone conclusion) but in the periphery markets, i.e. the totals and spreads. Alabama is playing some inspired football this season, giving up an average of 7 points per game. They are 6-1 ATS this season and 3-1 at home ATS. They’re not going to risk much in this one with LSU looming the next week but even at 50% effort it shouldn’t be difficult to put down 50 points against the Volunteers while being stingy at the same time.

Pick: Alabama to Cover 

Auburn at No.1 LSU

In the battle of the Tigers, what hope does Auburn (5-2, 3-1 SEC) have against the top-ranked LSU (7-0, 4-0 SEC) really? None? Some?  If football betting market reactions and popular opinion are anything to go by, the former is probably true.

The LSU Tigers are rolling this season, undefeated in seven games by a considerable average margin of over 26 points. The defense hasn’t been lazy either, stacking impressive numbers including holding opponents to just 7.8 points per game. No surprise then that they are the heavy faves to win and that most bettors expect them to win.

Bearing in mind that this is effectively a clash between the top-ranked team and the reigning national champions, you’d think Auburn would be given a bit more consideration. Two things have hurt them this season: their inconsistent form and the fact that Cam Newton is no longer there to lead them to glory.

Football Betting Verdict: This game is LSU’s to win, hands down. However, I don’t believe Auburn will go down without a fight. Therefore, I expect LSU to be forced to work hard to win a surprisingly tight game.

Pick: LSU Straight Up, Auburn to Cover

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