Acapulco Quarterfinal Tennis Picks: Ferrero vs. Almagro

Acapulco, Mexico – The match between Spaniards Juan Carlos Ferrero and Nicolas Almagro in the quarters of the Abierto Mexicana Telcel is the most anticipated of all the quarterfinals today. What with Nicolas Almagro being the two-time defending champion and Ferrero on an incredible hot streak, picking up back-to-back titles during the South American clay court swing, the match is hyped up justifiably so.

With all the hype and anticipation surrounding their clash, there is the betting on the match that is heating up in the BetOnline market. And it isn’t a straightforward affair by any means. Whereas there is a clear favourite in Ferrero and a mere puppy in Almagro there are other factors to consider that would skew the market cast.

Almagro takes the 2-1 lifetime edge over Ferrero but his victories came back in 2006 on home soil. He beat Ferrero twice in 2006 at Valencia and Spain (both clay court events). Arguably, those were not memorable seasons for Ferrero but he accounted well against his younger compatriot nonetheless, losing both matches narrowly. Ferrero got into the win column finally against Almagro last year in Beijing, beating him 7-5, 7-6(3). The win however came on hard courts and as such should be taken in due context.

While Almagro has had success over Ferrero on clay, Ferrero can claim to his name the biggest clay court title on the calendar, the 2003 French Open, something Almagro hasn’t accomplished for all his prowess on the red stuff. In fact, he hasn’t even come close to winning it. Even though it is a seven-year-old victory, it still counts for something – at the very least, it separates these two players on the broader clay-court scale.

Tennis Betting Line :

Juan Carlos Ferrero -2 -120 -160 22½ O -110 U -130
Nicolas Almagro +2 -120 +120 22½ O -110 U -130

First Set Line: Juan Carlos Ferrero -145 Nicolas Almagro +105

Match Time: 09:30 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Ferrero trading at -160 to win outright and at -145 to take the first set are good bets. There is a hot streak to consider, including two titles, and the confidence of those wins behind him to weigh into the equation. Tennis bettors looking to back Ferrero cannot be faulted for doing so. Everything about him suggests he is the likely winner.

Almagro however is not going to be a cakewalk. Almagro has worn the sombrero in Acapulco two-years in a row and he is looking to complete the hat trick here. In some ways, this would make him the player to beat rather than the other way around because he has a lot at stake here, from ranking points to pride. Offered at +120 odds Almagro is a good bet for tennis betting fans looking to buck the trend.

Almagro has already been involved in several high stake matches; the most memorable, his R16 encounter against Tsonga at the Aussie Open, which was a five set marathon to behold. Almagro accounted amazingly well against Tsonga, a 2008 Aussie Open runner-up no less, and it was but a handful of points and some bad luck that saw him on the wrong end of the result. More impressive about the performance was that he had been playing with a broken bone in his left wrist – it isn’t his hitting arm but still.

Almagro’s season mark at 3-3 ahead of Acapulco doesn’t reflect all of the above praise but I believe he is in-form right now and it is only a matter of time before his results fall in line.

Tennis Free Picks: This should be a competitive match and go the distance. The betting comes down to strategy in the end: picking your winner and hedge your bets with plays on his opposite.

My bet would look like this: Almagro to take the first set at +105 is a very reasonable bet. I expect he will start strong against Ferrero and try to dictate play from the start. It is his only real chance and it could throw Ferrero off his game. Ferrero to win outright at -160. Almagro to cover the spread at + 2 -120 is trading the same as Ferrero to cover the spread at -2 -120, but I believe the former to be the better play. Vice versa, for those backing Almagro for the win would be a good strategy. The totals, I think we can all agree should be the Over 22 ½ -110.

Get in on the action now – SIGN UP HERE