AFC Do or Die Games – Your Winning Picks

It’s do or die time for a few teams in the AFC.  Okay, it sort of feels like it’s do or die time for every team in the AFC in Week 17!

No less than 7 teams are alive for the two remaining playoff spots.  All 7 have somewhat of a shot to win, but no more than 2 control their own destiny.  Forget about picking the teams to win.  What about picking the teams to cover the spread in the NFL sportsbook?  Check out some quick analysis on a few key AFC games in Week 17 below.

Get your bets down, then make sure to check the BetOnline Sportsbook on Monday for the AFC Playoff lines for the 1st round of the playoffs!

AFC Week 17 Key Games

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans

Kick-off:  1:00 pm EST

NFL Odds:  Houston -9, Total 46

Analysis:  Coach Bill Belichick, aka Grumpy from Snow White, won’t play his starters because the Pats have a playoff game coming up in two weeks.  That might not be such a good idea considering that New England was terrible on the road this year.

In any case, the Pats’ D would have a hard time with Houston with their starters in because QB Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson are two of the best in the game.  Expect the Texans to win this game, they will want to pressure Denver, Baltimore and the Jets, but 9 points is a lot, don’t you think?

I’m betting the under and not even looking at the trends because without Brady, Moss and Welker out there for the full 60, I just don’t see the Pats putting up more than 10 to 14 points in this game.

Winning Pick:  Under 46

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Kick-off:  4:15 pm EST

NFL Odds:  Denver -13, Total 38

Analysis:  It’s do or die time for the Denver Broncos who are just 1 and 5 against the spread in their last 6 games versus an AFC West opponent.

Denver has lost three games in a row.  The problem I have with the Broncos in this game is that they probably should have beaten the Eagles in Philly last week as huge underdogs.  They didn’t but emotionally they laid everything out there.

Do they suffer the dreaded “bounce” in this game?  Yes, I think so.  13 points is an awful lot of points to give up in Week 17 in the NFL.  Denver did beat K.C. 44 to 13 just about a month ago.

I don’t expect that to repeat on Sunday.  The Broncos will win, but K.C. should cover the spread.

Winning Pick:  Kansas City +13

Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders

Kick-off:  4:15 pm EST

NFL Odds:  Baltimore -10 ½, Total 38

Analysis:  With a victory, the Ravens will secure a playoff berth.  Baltimore is 11 and 0 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a losing record.

They are also 5 and 0 in their last 5 games when they are favored by 10 ½ or more points.  Oakland is 4 and 1, however, in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

I sort of like the Ravens in this game, but Oakland’s defense is pretty good.  10 ½ points is a huge number and the Raiders have gone win-loss-win-loss against the spread in their last six games.  They’re coming up to a “win” ATS in this one.

Winning Pick: Oakland Raiders +10 ½

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets

Kick-off:  8:20 pm EST

NFL Odds:  Jets -10, Total 35 ½

Analysis:  The Bengals won’t exactly lie down, but they aren’t going to do much against the Jets because they, like the Patriots, play next week in the wildcard round.

That might be an issue for the Bengals, however.  I mean, the Jets would make the playoffs with a victory.  Do the Bengals really want to give the Jets confidence considering the fact that they will most likely have to play them in 6 or 7 short days from Sunday?

Probably not, but, then again, Cincy can’t take the chance of Ochocinco, Cedric Benson or Carson Palmer getting hurt. 

The trends favor both the Jets and Bengals.  That’s not going to help us in this game.  What will, though, is the fact that rookie QB Mark Sanchez is going to face a very, very good Bengals’ defensive team.

Neither the Jets nor the Bengals will put up a lot of points in this game.  I suspect that with Ochocinco and Palmer on the bench for most of this one and back-up RB Larry Johnson carrying the load, the Bengals will eat up a lot of clock.

So will the Jets who won’t let Sanchez drop their season down the toilet by tossing the ball 30 to 40 errant passes in this game.  

I’m going under.

Winning Pick: Under 35 ½