ATP Acapulco Quarterfinal Betting Tips: Schwank and Gonzalez collide

Acapulco, Mexico—Fernando Gonzalez heads into his quarterfinal clash against Eduardo Schwank as the clear favourite to win outright. The expectation that Gonzalez is the smart play is reflected across the board, in all markets on this matchup from the handicap to the fixed odds and the totals.

Though this is a straightforward matchup, and by all accounts, Gonzalez has the easiest path of all the seeds into the quarters, there are still angles for profit in the betting on this match.

Tennis Betting Line:

Eduardo Schwank +4½ -135 +300 21 O -125 U -115
Fernando Gonzalez -4½ -105 -500 21 O -125 U -115

First Set Line: Eduardo Schwank +190 Fernando Gonzalez -275

Match Time: 08:00 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: First, there is no head-to-head to consider between these two, as they will meet for the first time at an ATP level event. The absence of a barometer could make for an interesting matchup. Players, even top players, can find it hard to play against a player whose game they are not familiar with, which leaves the first set theoretically up for grabs.

Gonzalez -4½ vs Schwank >> Join to Bet Now

The expectation though is that the better player, at least on paper so, will figure out his opponent’s game and the how to win. Ideally, said player will do it in straight sets but in such cases, a three-setter is very possible.

Gonzalez is the favourite in this match, trading at -500 to win outright and at -275 to win the first set. The expectation is that Gonzalez will take the match in straights because he has the overwhelming edge on paper.

Given the challenges an unknown opposite can offer, it is quite possible that Schwank would take the first set, trading at +190 – a reasonable price-point, which punters could interpret as a likely probability. To win the match outright is a long shot, trading at +300. The chances that this would happen are slim, would require Gonzalez to come off his game rather than Schwank to outplay him.

On the handicap, Schwank is trading at +4 ½ -135 to cover the spread. Interestingly, this is the favoured outcome rather than Gonzalez to cover the spread at -4 ½ -105. Seems the bookies believe Schwank will account well and avoid the embarrassing blow out.

The totals are trading at Over 21 -125 as the favoured result rather than the Under 21 -115. Further proof of bookies conviction this match will be closer than most would expect.

Tennis Free Picks: Gonzalez in straight sets