ATP Indian Wells: Almagro and Blake in action

Indian Wells, California – Nicolas Almagro and James Blake feature in early afternoon action at Indian Wells today. Almagro and Blake will kick off their campaigns in the first round against Mischa Zverev and Daniel Gimeno Traver respectively.

Both Almagro and Blake are favoured to advance into the second round and by all accounts, they should advance, making them the popular plays on the outright win market. But Zverev and Gimeno Traver pose some threat methinks.

They might not be the likely choice to win but they could perform well. Tennis bettors may well find additional value therefore on the spreads and totals. Here is a look at the market trading on both these matchups, complete with BetOnline tennis free picks for your consideration.

Tennis Betting Line:

Nicolas Almagro -3½ -110 -300 22½ O Ev U -140
Mischa Zverev +3½ -130 +200 22½ O Ev U -140

First Set Line: Nicolas Almagro -200 Mischa Zverev +150

Match Time: 03:30 PM Eastern Time Friday March 12, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: It is the first meeting between Nicolas Almagro and Mischa Zverev at an ATP event. The Spaniard, Almagro comes into this match riding a 6-5 mark on the season, which includes a R16 at the Aussie Open and a quarterfinal at Acapulco.

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Almagro has been dismissed in the past as a clay-court guru, largely ineffective on hard courts. Whereas he has had his best results on clay he has also had some encouraging results on hard courts, such as his R16 appearance at Melbourne wherein he lost a massive five-set marathon to Tsonga 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(6), 7-9.

Because of performances like these he can no longer be held up as just a clay-courter in my opinion. He has as good a shot as any player that lives and dies by his hard court trade to navigate a deep run.

Tennis Free Picks: Having said that his perceived weaknesses on hard have not factored in this match. He enters as the -300 favourite to win outright over Mischa Zverev – a talented enough player but still wholly inconsistent to make a dent on the Tour. Zverev arrives with a 4-6 mark on the season, which includes a semi-final run at Marseille – his best performance this year.

Zverev could make this interesting and he has a respectable shot to mastermind the upset; evinced by the fact that he is not exactly priced out of the market, listed at +200. Of course, it is still a bit of a risky play because Almagro is the better of the two in my opinion.

Zverev is served much better on the spread at +3 ½ -130 and if he does make this match as interesting as I believe he can, the totals at Over 22 ½ Even would be the better bet.

Tennis Betting Line:

James Blake -5½ Ev -900 19½ O -130 U -110
Daniel Gimeno Traver +5½ -140 +450 19½ O -130 U -110

First Set Line: James Blake -500 Daniel Gimeno Traver +300

Match Time: 03:30 PM Eastern Time Friday March 12, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: James Blake is struggling to find a relevant place for himself on the ATP Tour. He was once a regular fixture in the top 20 but over the last season he has slipped in the ranks. The negative trend called for desperate measures such as reorganizing his team, and hiring a new coach.

Yet, in spite of all the changes he is still on a negative trend. He started the season ranked No.44 but has slipped down to No.52. He is 5-5 ahead of his first round encounter, with quarterfinal highlights at Brisbane and Delray Beach.

The problem with Blake in my opinion is that he isn’t the best mind on court. Too often he extends rallies unnecessarily looking for the flashiest shot to end a point. He would be better served just to get the job done and win the point.

Because of this tendency (showboating if you will) it is not surprising to find his unforced error count in a match high. This means he just plays himself out of too many matches. This also means that at times he can lose to the most unlikely of opponents, especially if that opponent plays a smarter, tighter game against Blake, knowing that all he has to do is wait for Blake to err.

So the tipping question is whether Daniel Gimeno-Traver is such a player. On paper, there is nothing to suggest he is. He ranks just at the butt of the top 100 and he is on a 2-6 mark for the season.

Looking at some of his losses on the season though, several were rather tight three-set marathons. Hmm…Clearly, Gimeno-Traver has game. What he likes is the closing instinct. Will he find it against Blake and mastermind what will surely be a huge upset?

Tennis Free Picks: The probability is slim but I can’t help thinking a small wager on Gimeno-Travers +450 odds that would not go amiss if it doesn’t pan out is warranted. Blake at -900 to win outright is going to be the popular play, I am sure. But let us face it, it is rather uninteresting.

And truth be told, grossly misrepresentative of his lack in form. Of course, the better action on Gimeno-Traver is on the spread at +5 ½ -140 because there is less exposure to the risk. It helps that it is the bookies favoured outcome. The Over 19 ½ at -130 is also the favoured outcome by the bookies.

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