Aussie Open Quarterfinals Federer and Davydenko collide

Melbourne, Australia – Is revenge in sight for Roger Federer as he gears up to battle Davydenko for a spot in the Aussie Open semis, a best-of-five scenario that decidedly favours Roger on paper, inquiring minds want to know.

There is a nervous trepidation in the marketplace where this matchup is concerned, only because Nikolay Davydenko comes into this match with back-to-back wins over Federer and back-to-back titles, which includes an undefeated mark in 2010. For all these parts, some are entertaining the notion Davydenko might mastermind the biggest upset of the decade, end a record run of 22-consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals by handing the maestro his first defeat in the quarterfinals of a major in over six years.

Two wins over Federer in a best-of-three situation and Davydenko is supposed to be Mighty Mouse. Seriously? Lest everyone has forgotten, Federer still owns Davydenko 12-2 lifetime. In three meetings on a Grand Slam stage, Federer dropped just one of ten sets played to Davydenko. Ironically, that was in the 2006 Aussie Open quarters 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(7), 7-6(5).

Moreover, Davydenko didn’t look very hot in his win over Verdasco in the last 16. The match was a schizophrenic affair, featuring atrocious momentum shifts over five terrible acts, and both players, in my opinion, did their utmost best to lose. Verdasco just beat Davydenko to it – that is all. Surely, an effort like that cannot be expected to topple the great Federer.

Tennis Betting Line:

• Roger Federer -4 -140 -350 39½ O -125 U -115 20½ O -140 U Ev
• Nikolay Davydenko +4 Ev +225 39½ O -125 U -115 19½ O Ev U -140

First Set:

• Roger Federer -200
• Nikolay Davydenko +150

Federer -4 vs Davydenko >> Join to Bet Now

Second Set:

• Roger Federer -190
• Nikolay Davydenko +145

Match Time: 11:00 PM Eastern Time Tuesday January 26, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Federer leads 12-2 lifetime against Davydenko. Going into the ATP Barclay Tours final he owned Nikita 12-0 and nobody expected that mark would change. The unthinkable happened, as the Russian got into the win column for the first time ever in the semis 6-2, 4-6, 7-5.

Not only that, Nikita outdid that result when he went on to beat Del Potro in the final to win the title. On the New Year, Davydenko backed up the win in Doha when he beat Federer for a second consecutive time, 6-4, 6-4, en route to the title (beat Nadal).

This recent positive trend has some believing Davydenko has a shot against Federer in the Aussie Open quarters. Yet, the bookies tip Davydenko at +225 to win outright, a mark I believe is telling. I do not think the bookies believe Davydenko will beat Federer – the mark is beyond the 200 price-point , which puts him outside of serious threat – and I have to say I agree.

Federer is the solid favourite at -350 to win outright and his price tag is just the right sort of vote of confidence without being too disrespectful to his opponent.

Federer to win is the smart play. Moreover, Federer to win in straight sets is a reasonable bet as well. Four set victory is perhaps the favoured outcome as many think Davydenko will at least be competitive.

There is enough evidence to suggest he might stretch Federer to five sets– beating Fed twice in a row is no mean feat. That said the victories were best of three. This is best of five. A different ball game. In addition, Davydenko barely squeaked by Verdasco in a five-setter.

Tennis Free Picks: My recommended bets on this match are Federer to win at -350 and Under 39 ½ -115. I think Federer to cover the spread at -4 -140 is another good play. I am sticking with my pick for Federer to win in straight sets so I would take Federer at -200 to win the first and -190 to win the second.