Aussie Open Quarterfinals: Tsonga and Djokovic Reprise 2008 Title Match

Melbourne, Australia – The quarterfinal billing between world No.3 Novak Djokovic and No.9 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, most tennis bettors anticipated, even had pencilled into their brackets at the start of the 2010 Australian Open, is indeed upon us as both players punched at their weight class to reach the round of the elite eight. For one player however it will be the end of the road. There can only be one winner, after all.

The last time the pair met in Melbourne was in the 2008 title match. Djokovic had just ousted Roger Federer in the semis and Tsonga had rounded off what was a Cinderella run into the final with a massive win over Rafael Nadal. Djokovic came into the final as the favourite, he was appearing in his second consecutive Grand Slam final after reaching the 2007 US Open final and losing to Federer in straight sets. Tsonga had emerged out of an underdog abyss against all the odds. It was a run that saw many firsts for the Frenchman.

Understandably, given Djokovic’s experience and Tsonga’s lack of it, the final was not very competitive – aside for the first set that went to Tsonga. Inevitably, the outcome fell in line with the market as Tsonga succumbed to Djokovic in four sets. The 2008 Aussie open was Djokovic’s first-ever Grand Slam title.

Since the fateful loss in Melbourne, Tsonga went on to beat Djokovic four consecutive times before having his streak snapped. Lifetime, Tsonga owns the 4-2 edge. He beat Djokovic three times in 2008, to improve his mark to 3-1 against Djokovic.

In 2009, they split two meetings. Tsonga got into the win in Marseille; Djokovic snapped his negative trend against the Frenchman in Miami.

Having said that does the above have any bearing on the outcome of their quarterfinal clash at the 2010 Aussie Open.

Tsonga has come a long way since his greenhorn days on a major stage and is better equipped to handle clutch matches on a big stage. In some respects, Djokovic is a different player as well, having matured somewhat and maybe even calmed down a bit.

Will it be enough for the reprised Australian Open final clash to deliver a different result, inquiring minds want to know.

Tennis Betting Line:

Novak Djokovic -4 -115 -275 40½ O -130 U -110 21½ O Ev U -140
Jo Wilfried Tsonga +4 -125 +190 40½ O -130 U -110 19½ O -110 U -130

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First Set:

Novak Djokovic -190
Jo Wilfried Tsonga +145

Second Set:

Novak Djokovic -180
Jo Wilfried Tsonga +140

Match Time: 03:30 AM Eastern Time Wednesday January 27, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Djokovic has looked solid in Melbourne but then again he has hardly been tested has he. He fell into a sweet section of the draw and he has come across no seeded threat to reach the quarterfinals. Still, he managed to drop a set against Marco Chiudinelli in the second round – a rare lapse in focus. Tennis bettors looking to back Djokovic will find him listed as the favourite at -275 to win outright.

Djokovic would seem to be the smart play because he has looked good, if not deceivingly so since he has not been challenged yet. He might not be as sure a play as some might think.

Tsonga had a tougher draw and a more challenging path to the quarterfinals for it. He faced Tommy Haas in the third round and needed four sets to dispatch the veteran German. In the fourth round, he came up against an on-fire Almagro who stretched him to five sets before Tsonga closed out the match 9-7 in the fifth (it was Tsonga’s first-ever five-set marathon, if you could believe it.)

Tsonga comes in as a vexing puppy at +190. Expectation is Tsonga will challenge Djokovic royally for a spot in the semis. There is also the fact that Tsonga is a popular player and fan favourite. The crowd will be behind him methinks, something that can under Djokovic’s skin: a crowd rooting against him.

Tennis Free Picks: Whichever way you slice this match there is value. We are at a stage of the tournament when quality players collide. Djokovic and Tsonga are quality and there is much to recommend each for the win.

For my part, I like Tsonga to take the win in five sets. I like his +190 puppy odds but I would hedge that play with Djokovic to cover the match spread at -4 -115. As well, I like the match Overs of 40 ½ -130.

I don’t expect Djokovic will have a cakewalk into the semis, neither will Tsonga for that matter. An attractive two-part play is Tsonga to take the first set at +145 play and Djokovic to level the score in the second at -180.

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