College Basketball – Top 10 Team Updates and Free Saturday Game Picks

With March fast approaching, if you haven’t already done your homework, or made any College Basketball bets in the Sportsbook, then this should be a crash-course in what’s going on. I’ve also included some free picks on Saturday’s biggest games. You’re welcome.

Top 10 Update

1. Kentucky Wildcats (23-1)
It’s no secret that Kentucky is the team to beat, especially since their entire starting lineup is slated to be drafted in the first round of the 2012 Draft.
That doesn’t meant they’re a good bet. The Wildcats are an atrocious 9-14-1 ATS this season and are getting overpriced TOTALS, which explains their 8-15-1 record in O/U. Though they’re a can’t-miss team to watch, they’re a stay away play in betting no matter what.

2. Syracuse Orange (23-1)
The upstarts from upstate are at it again with another fellow named Melo. This time it’s Fab Melo, a big 7-footer who’s 255 pounds and averaging 7.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.1 blocks. Those numbers don’t pop, but Syracuse’s betting reputation is already picking up steam since they’re 15-9 ATS this season.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (20-3)
In my eyes, the Buckeyes are one of the best defensive teams in the country and the play of Jared Sullinger is making NBA scouts water at the mouth. They’re overachieving to a certain extent, and their attention to defense is what has steadied them to a 12-7 ATS record this season because they can stifle big scoring by shutting opponents down completely.

4. Missouri Tigers (21-2)
Does anyone expect this to last? Does it make you feel better they’re the second best three-point shooting squad in the country?

5. UNC Tar Heels (20-3)
I personally love Harrison Barnes but after watching the Tar Heels crumble at home against Duke in the biggest game of their season, I’m starting to back away slowly. UNC’s already nerve-wracking 11-12 ATS record was enough to make me turn away to begin with…but after that loss to Duke I’m betting against them in big games until they prove otherwise.

6. Baylor Bears (21-2)
Unlike Robert Griffin III, the athletically superior and physically freakish Perry Jones III is not playing to his all-world potential. The Bears were a hyped team heading in to the season, and they’re delivering to a certain extent but at 7-10 ATS I’d eggshell this one. The oddsmakers are watching this team, and setting harsh lines that the Bears aren’t faring well against.

7. Kansas Jayhawks (19-4)
As always, Kansas is in the hunt. And like always, Kansas is getting smothered by the oddsmakers as one of the biggest public betting teams in the country. Inflated lines have led to a 12-10-1 ATS record for the Jayhawks.

8. Florida Gators (19-4)
Look out! It’s the Florida Gators again! Florida falls to the same fate as Kansas. If they’re doing well, they’re a great team to bet against because they’re just 9-9-1 ATS this season. People are going to bet like they’re a star studded team, but they’re not even close and they’ll struggle against mammoth lines all year.

9. Murray State Racers (23-0)
You know what they say about the Ohio Valley Conference? Yep! It sucks. That partly explains Murray State’s inexplicable undefeated season, but the oddsmakers caught on. This team is just 8-8-2 ATS and are a far better road bet, where they’re 5-2-1 ATS this season.

10. Duke Blue Devils (19-4)
My favorite part about watching Duke games this year is that announcers can’t help but say Austin Rivers’ entire name. The Spawn of Doc may not have been as good as advertised, but he is coming on strong as we barrel in to March Madness. Maybe all his early season troubles were jitters. Kid is nasty.

But as a big public bet (probably the biggest) Duke is going to get bad lines all season. Single digits is the way to go. Duke is just 4-6 ATS in their past 10 games, but three of those spread victories came against single digit lines.

BIG WEEKEND MATCHUPS

Connecticut Huskies at #2 Syracuse Orange
The oddsmakers are adjusting to how people bet, and idiots are still playing UConn in the sportsbook like they have Kemba Walker. Listen, Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond are top-5 worthy picks, but this team stinks and smart betting crowds know it. UConn is just 7-12 ATS this season and are also 1-6 ATS when playing on the road. That’s great news for the Orange, and even better news for people willing to back the second best team in the country on what will be a tighter home line than usual.

#6 Baylor Bears at #4 Missouri Tigers
Baylor is a horrific bet at home, which might be a God-send since they’re on the road against Missouri. Truth be told, the Tigers are a much better team than you’d expect them to be, but they also don’t have anyone on the roster that can hope to defend Perry Jones. Missouri can get the ball running, but if Baylor’s smart they’ll slow the game down and let the 6-foot-11 Jones take over. Missouri has just three players at or over 6-foot-8. The Bears will get a good road line, and Missouri won’t be able to cover it.

#12 Michigan State Spartans at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes
The Spartans are running right in to a Nut House where the Buckeyes are 9-3 ATS. You can tell where I’m going with this College Basketball bet. Michigan State is a lukewarm 4-3 ATS when travelling and are just not capable of cracking this defense.

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Untitled Document

I still can’t tell if all the hubbub around the Manhattan’s newest Asian star is well founded, or purely based on racial biases. Either way, it’s fun and the sudden revival of New York is making Pro Basketball betting even more interesting than it has been.

Now that football is over, you can now faithfully turn your full attention to the Pro Basketball betting side of things. Lines aren’t released until within 24 hours of the matchup, so I had to go with some imaginary lines for these games, which I didn’t list because that would be cruel. Read on and you’ll get the idea. Enjoy and best of luck.

New York Knicks over MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Lin-sanity is sweeping through the entire league as the kid from Harvard who nobody thought was any good is rolling with three 20+ point performances. Is there anything more exciting about Saturday night besides Asian Jeremy Lin going up against Spanish Ricky Rubio?!

Well I would hope so, but my life sucks so this is pretty much going to make my weekend meaningful. Lin has been an absolute dynamo against guys much more athletic than him, mostly because he plays very intelligently. He’s setting great pick and rolls with Tyson Chandler and the Knicks are 3-0 SU and ATS with him starting at point.

What’s even more astonishing is that the underachieving Knicks are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, most of which have been without Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire. Should that make you worry? Nope! In fact, it’s the opposite. The oddsmakers can’t give the Knicks a crazy line because they’re on the road, missing their two best players and featuring a relative unknown at point guard. Bet Knicks hard on Saturday night. You never go wrong with Harvard grads (and not just because this one is Asian).

ATLANTA HAWKS over Miami Heat
Everyone who has read my basketball articles knows how I feel about the Hawks. They’re built to fail. On top of that they’re streaky. Before going 1-3 SU and ATS in their last 4 games, they went 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. Not the best numbers overall, and certainly not in that order.

Despite how I feel about Atlanta, this game is about making an intelligent bet. Miami is one of the worst teams on the road in terms of sports betting, which is weird to think because they should get better lines away from home. This season, Miami is just 4-8 ATS when travelling, and are just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last 4 road trips.

You tell me which team is a better bet: the team that continually doesn’t cover on the road, or the team that’s streaky at best and just covered and won their last game. If you took the second option, you just bet on the Hawks. I know. It’s a jagged pill to swallow.

BOSTON CELTICS over Chicago Bulls
Boston is who we thought they’ve been for several years: big team in big games. They’re on a 9-1 SU tear right now, and though that’s led to a 6-4 ATS record, some of that can be explained. Cleveland (which covered twice against Boston recently) plays a lot harder than we expected them to.

Yet the Celtics almost always reserve their best for the best competition, and they don’t get more monumental than matchups with teams like Chicago. The Bulls are a solid 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and also 6-4 ATS during that run, but this is a team that is still trying to move on from a Derrick Rose first, foremost and all the time mentality.

Carlos Boozer isn’t playing like he can. Joakim Noah hasn’t been the Tasmanian Devil of high energy forwards lately. Rip Hamilton is touch-and-go, and same goes for the usually steady scorer, Luol Deng. I don’t know what to make of the Bulls from a basketball or a betting standpoint. They’re a team that wins games on the backs of one of the best players in the game.

The truth of the matter is that Rondo, KG and Allen are going to play well against what the Bulls have to offer, and Chicago has no answer for Paul Pierce, who drops in to sixth gear in games like this. Trust me, I’ve gone against Boston enough this year in the BetUS Basketball betting section of the sportsbook to know when to play them and an opponent like Chicago is right in their wheelhouse.

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Pro Hockey Betting and Free Picks For Friday’s Games

If you’re looking to fill that football void with a little violence and excitement, look no further than Pro hockey betting. As far as sports betting goes, Pro Hockey is the lost bastard cousin of the other sports because not a lot of public bettors know about the sport. That being said, it’s generally a very good sport to bet.

Don’t be fooled in to thinking that it’s easy. Like betting basketball and baseball, hockey is a grinding man’s game. You have to be patient, do a bit of research and keep in mind that it’s an 82-game season that depends on so many variables.

Why is that a good thing? Well look at the Ottawa Senators, who were projected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. They’re not only third in their division and 27-22 with just over half the season burned away, they’re a league best 34-22 ATS which means that if you’ve been riding the gravy train for a while, you’re making far more money than you’re losing.

The trick in hockey betting is pretty simple: you ride the hot team and spread your money around. There are always multiple games, and lots of good bets out there. Oddsmakers usually just toss up lazy odds without thinking because hockey truthfully doesn’t generate that much business. That means good (if not great) odds all the time.

Take a peek at some of the Friday matchups and don’t forget these are moneyline picks. The actual Game Odds will go live Thursday night.

DETROIT RED WINGS over Anaheim Ducks
The Red Wings are the Yankees of hockey betting. Consistently on top, consistently winning and consistently overvalued. That being said, they’re 30-25 ATS this season because of a solid point differential. Anaheim is one of the worst teams in hockey but that doesn’t make them a bad puckline bet, especially at 26-27 ATS.

The Ducks are also 7-3 SU in their last 10 games, disproving the idea that the trade rumors swirling around their entire top line are distracting the boys. All said though, Anaheim sucks when they play Detroit. At just 2-7 SU in their last 9 meetings you have to go with an easy parlay stuffer on Detroit’s side.

Carolina Hurricanes over COLORADO AVALANCHE
Carolina is just 20-25-6-4 SU overall, but are also one of the best hockey bets out there at 33-22 ATS and Colorado is an ice-cold team losing going just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games. Home ice won’t be the advantage in this one. I’d even go puckline with the road team if the value is better for your bet.

SAN JOSE SHARKS over Chicago Blackhawks
You have to know which teams are good home bets as well, and San Jose’s one of the stronger plays out there in hockey. The Sharks are 17-9-2-0 SU at home, and while they’re winning by slim margins (which explains their atrocious 21-30 ATS record), they’re beating the crap out of teams in HP Pavilion, which is bad news for the Blackhawks.

Chicago is a dismal 0-8 SU in their last 8 roadies. Poor defensive play has been a big culprit, and if San Jose loves to do anything well it’s ramp up the scoring at home en route to their inevitable playoff collapse.

Tennis Futures – 2012 Davis Cup First Round

The Davis Cup Tournament, spanning an incredible 10 months with the first round from Feb. 10th through Feb. 12th and the final round occurring this November from the 16th to the 18th, is as big as it gets in International Tennis Betting.  Sixteen teams will compete for the Davis Cup Championship this year.      

According to the odds makers, it’s all about the Serbs and the French in the 2012 Davis Cup.  Serbia is a solid +275 favorite in the tennis sportsbook to take home the Davis Cup Trophy while France sits at +300, only a +25 difference from the favored Serbs, in the sportsbook.  Betting line third choice Argentina is at +450 while fourth choice Switzerland is at +500.  What’s the big surprise in the lines?  It has to be defending champion Spain who is an overlaid +600 to win the 2012 Davis Cup.

2012 Davis Cup

When:  First Round:  Feb. 10 – Feb. 12

Where:  Worldwide

Contenders

Serbia +275

First Match: Sweden

The Serbs are simply the best team in the 2012 Davis Cup.  Even with Australian Open Champion Novak Djokovic sitting out the first round battle against Sweden, captain Bogdan Obradovic wants Djokovic to rest after his grueling battle against Ralph “Da Mouf” Nadal (I made that up…and, please don’t tell him!) in the Australian Open Final, the Serbs should dominate. 

They boast two Top 25 players in Janko Tipsarevic, (ranked 9th in the world in singles play) and Viktor Troicki, (22nd).  Tipsarevic has two career singles’ titles and finished in the quarter-finals of the 2011 U.S. Open.  Troicki made it to the 3rd round of the 2011 French Open.  The Serbian Team will also put Nenad Zimonjic, the 6th ranked doubles player in the world, onto the court in the 2012 Davis Cup.  Zimonjic won the doubles title at Wimbledon in both 2008 and 2009 and the French Open doubles title in 2010.  The Serbs took home the Davis Cup Trophy in 2010 and lost in the semis to Argentina 3 to 2 in 2011. 

The odds on Serbia will drop dramatically after they trounce Sweden this weekend.  Like Djokovic’s +125 odds at Australia earlier this year, the Serbs are a big overlay at +275 to win the 2012 Davis Cup.  Jump on these guys today.

France +300

First Match: Canada

Runner-up to Serbia in 2010, by a 3 to 2 margin, the French deserve their second choice status on the tennis betting lines to win the Davis Cup this year.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the anchor of France’s talented squad, is ranked 6th in the world.  The 26-year-old has 8 career singles titles and finished in the finals of the 2008 Australian Open.  Tsonga was also the runner-up in the 2011 ATP World Tour Finals to the brilliant Roger Federer.

Supporting Tsonga will be Gael Monfils.  Ranked 13th in the world, Monfils beat Tipsarevic in the 2010 Davis Cup 6-1, 7-6 (4), 6-0.  He’s got tremendous Davis Cup experience and is ranked 13th in the world.  36th ranked Julien Benneteau and 43rd ranked Michael Llodra add a great bottom to the first round team and France has a solid overall team for Captain Martin Laurendeau to work with.

France will be exceptionally tough in the 2012 Davis Cup but the odds should be slightly higher than +300.  The runner-up defeat in 2010 was impressive and the French did come back with a semi loss to Spain in 2011, but I’d much rather see them sitting in the tennis sportsbook at +375, a full +100 above Serbia’s odds, than at +300.  We will see, like we always do, but +300 odds are just too low for me to bite.

Argentina +450

First Match: Germany

Argentina is to tennis what Spain was to World Cup Soccer for so many years, a great team that is always highly ranked but can never close the deal.  The Argentineans finished in the semis to France, 5 to 0, in 2010 and was the runner-up to Spain in the 2011 Davis Cup.  The Spanish were amazing in 2011, going a ridiculous 14 and 3, so losing in the finals was expected.

The problem for Argentina in this year’s Davis Cup is that they received a difficult draw.  Germany is no slouch, they never are in any national tournament, and should Argentina get past the Germans, they’d end up either facing Japan, with hot shot player Kei Nishikori, or the Ivan Dodig-led Croatians. 

Argentina has a solid team, but, again, the draw is ridiculous.  Juan Ignacia Chela, ranked 25th, Juan Monaco, ranked 29th, David Nalbandian, ranked 86th, and Eduardo Schwank, ranked 157th, take on Germany’s Florian Mayer, ranked 21st, Phillip Kohlschreiber ranked 33rd, Phillip Petzschner, ranked 56th, and Tommy Haas, ranked 170th and making his German comeback in the Davis Cup.  Don’t be surprised if Deutschland upsets Argentina.  Maybe the Argentineans throw in Juan Martin del Potro against Germany at the last possible moment.

At +450 odds, as opposed to Germany’s +2500 odds, to win the Davis Cup, I’m going to have to pass on the Argentineans.  I see them having fits against Germany before del Potro returns and even then, it will just get harder for Argentina. 

Switzerland +500

First Match: United States

I was all set to pick the United States, at +2000, as my underdog to watch in the Davis Cup, but I can’t do that now, can I?  First, the amazing Roger Federer, ranked 3rd in the world, will lead Switzerland into battle against the United States. Second, because the Swiss are seeded higher in this tournament, they get to decide on what surface they take on the Yanks in the first round.

How do you feel about clay, U.S. team captain Jim Courier?  Although many tennis watchers are hyping up this matchup, I don’t see Switzerland having many issues versus the United States.  I do, however, doubt Switzerland to actually win the 2012 Davis Cup.  The reason is simple: Federer has 41 total victories in Davis Cup play. The rest of the team (Stanislas Wawrinka, Marco Chiudinelli and Michael Lammer) have a total of 22 Davis Cup victories, with 16 of those coming from Wawrinka.  Sure, Team Captain Severin Luthi can throw someone else into the mix, but, obviously, the Swedes will depend on Federer for the entire tournament. France, with Monfils and Tsonga, Serbia, with Djokovic (eventually!) and Tipsarevic, and the Spanish duo of Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer (both…eventually!) will throw two awesome players into the mix as this tournament goes on.

After the beat-down they put on the U.S., the Swiss take on France, unless Canada pulls off the miracle. Tsonga and Monfils will run the Swiss off of the court and back into the Alps.

Spain +600

First Match: Kazakhstan

Great draw, amigos!  That’s the first thing that comes to mind when I study Spain’s chances of repeating as Davis Cup Champions.  The first round is against +30000 Kazakhstan, an assured victory.  In the second round, they square off against either Russia or Austria, both teams they can handle.  Spain doesn’t take on France until the semis and if the Spanish got their bull running blood flowing, and they very well could by that time, the French could be in for a long Bastille-like match.

The Spanish have dominated the Davis Cup in the past decade winning the title in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2009.  The reason for the odds is the fact that Nadal, David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco, who led the Spanish to the Davis Cup victory last December, are all unavailable for the first round match against Kazakhstan, but so what?  Team Captain Alex Correjta should have the four ready to play well before the Spanish likely take on France in the semi-finals.

The team is going off at hugely overlaid odds to win the Davis Cup and although I like to call Rafael Nadal names, the man has more heart than any player outside of Djokovic.  Nadal will refuse to let Spain lose once the Spanish make it to the semis versus France.  If Ferrer is at the top of his game, and some of the lesser known Spaniards can come through, then a repeat of 2011 will definitely be in the offing.

Although I love Serbia to win the Davis Cup, and the Serbs are definitely overlays at +275 because of how strong that they are, the Spanish are the best bet to win the Davis Cup at +600.

Best Underdog   

Czech Republic +2500

Thomas Berdych, with 7 career single’s titles and coming off of a victory over Gael Monfils in the Open Sud, will lead the Czech Republic into the 2012 Davis Cup.  Berdych is ranked 7th in the world and, like most successful tennis players, there’s no quit to the man.  The Czechs will also send 31st-ranked Radek Stepanek onto the court. 

Berdych and Stepanek have a combined 48 victories in Davis Cup play.  That qualifies under my “you need two awesome players to win the Davis Cup” rule.  Not only that, but if the Czech beat Italy in the first round, and pull off the miracle against Serbia in the second round, the finals should be in sight.  At +2500, the Czech Republic is a nice underdog to win the 2012 Davis Cup.

Betting the Davis Cup

I’m putting $50 on Spain to repeat at +600 odds.

I’m putting $40 to win on Serbia to cut my losses should Spain not come through.

I’m putting $10 on the Czech Republic at +2500 (my flyer wager!).

Click Here for the early odds on the First Round of the 2012 Davis Cup!    

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New England Season In Review and Super Sunday Betting Preview

New England entered the season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.  In fact, at one point, New England was the favorite to take home the silver trophy as the 5 to 2 fave.

Although New England was the favorite to win the whole enchilada, they didn’t exactly pad football handicappers’ bankrolls when it came to betting against the spread this season.  A 13 and 3 record, which New England secured, didn’t translate to ATS covers in the sportsbook.  New England went 9 and 7 ATS overall.  That shouldn’t inspire confidence in those looking to back New England versus New York in this Super Sunday Pro Football Betting Event, but behind every team’s betting record, there’s a story to be told.

 Against the Spread

Before writing off the Patriots, and taking the 3 points on the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, football handicappers need to examine that less than stellar 9 and 7 ATS record.  The record simply isn’t as uninspiring as the number suggests.  Sure, going 13 and 3 straight up, but only 9 and 7 when it comes to the spread may be disappointing, but there’s a glaring reason for it.

When it comes to football betting, no other team had to give up more points this past regular season than the New England Patriots.  If you wanted to back the Pats, you had to lay a ton of points to do it almost each and every week.  The odds makers had a serious bead on the Pats this season and it showed up in the betting lines.

Home Record ATS:  4-4

It almost goes without saying that the New England Patriots were favored in each and every one of their home games.  The least amount of points that New England had to cover was in Week 2 against San Diego when the Patriots stepped onto the field as a – 6.5 point fave versus the Chargers. 

New England also faced the largest spread of any NFL team this season in a home game versus the Indianapolis Colts on Dec. 4.  Without Peyton Manning, the odds makers assumed that Tom Brady and the Pats would waltz all over the Colts’ ridiculous 26th ranked D and expand the points sucking black hole that was Indy’s 30th ranked total yards offense.  That didn’t happen.  New England didn’t cover the spread in the yearly Patriots vs Indianapolis battle.  Check out all four of the Patriots’ non-covers during the regular season. 

Versus Dallas as a -6.5 point favorite in a 20 to 16 victory

Versus the New York Giants as a -9 point favorite in a 20 to 24 loss

Versus Indianapolis as a -20.5 point favorite in a 31 to 24 victory

Versus Miami as a -9 point favorite in a 27 to 24 victory   

A closer look at each one of the ATS losses reveals that the Patriots are probably a better team, at least when it comes to the 3 points that they face this Sunday versus the New York Giants, then the 9 and 7 regular season ATS record might indicate.

New England faced Dallas in Week 6, when they were still the Cowboys and not the Cowpokes.  Dallas sat on a 2 and 2 straight up record and was coming off of a bye.  The Pats had just come off of an emotional 31 to 21 victory over the Jets.  Things were looking up in Big D and New England was trying to get it together to face an NFC team after putting a sock into Rex Ryan’s giant mug.

It’s difficult to come up with a reason for New England’s against the spread loss to the G-Men on Nov. 6.  Not only did Brady and Co. not come up with a good enough game to cover the ridiculous 9 point spread, but Eli and the G-Men beat them straight up 24 to 20.  Mr. Budchen produced his worse QB rating of the season in the game, a 75.4.  Football bettors should put the NYG loss into the experience column.

20.5 points to an NFL team?  That’s insane, ridiculous, just plain stupid/  Even though most football handicappers wouldn’t lay 20.5 points in a dream world where the Colts showed up with only 8-players ala Miami Arizona’s High School squad, New England had the victory ATS in that game until the 4th quarter where the Colts outscored them 21 to zip.

There’s a moment for every NFL team when it comes to beating the spread in every season.  For Miami, that moment occurred on Oct. 30 when they lost to the New York Giants 17 to 20 as a 9 point dog.  The Fins had gone 0-5-1 ATS in their previous 6 games.  The victory against the spread versus the Giants on Oct. 30 led to a 9 and 1 ATS regular season finish for Miami.  Why is this important to note?  Because the Patriots played the Fins on Dec. 24 at home, towards the end of Miami’s awesome covering spread streak.

Away Record ATS:  5-3

New England’s against the spread record on the road during the regular season can be attributed to the fact that the Patriots faced somewhat lower spreads in their away games than they did in their home games. 

When it comes to the NFL, odds makers automatically assign -3 points to the home team.  For instance, when the New Orleans Saints took on the horrible Colts in the Superdome on Oct. 23, they went into the game, before the odds makers set any sort of betting line against the spread, as a -3 point favorite.  The line ended up at -13.5 meaning that the odds makers felt that the Saints were 10.5 points better than the Colts at a neutral site.  At home, the Saints were 13.5 points better than Indy.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Patriots’ three road losses against the spread this season.

Versus Buffalo as a -7 point favorite in a 31 to 34 loss

Versus Pittsburgh as a -3 point favorite in a 17 to 25 loss

Versus Washington as a -7.5 point favorite in a 34 to 27 victory

The Buffalo loss occurred in Week 3.  There’s no doubt that this is a legitimate loss both straight up and against the spread for the Patriots, but there are a couple of key things regarding this game that football handicappers should notice.  First, although Pats’ TE Rob Gronkowski had scored a touchdown in New England’s two previous games, the loss to Buffalo was Gronk’s coming out party.  The huge tight-end (and Arizona alum, my alma mater) grabbed 7 passes for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Since TE Aaron Hernandez, who tore it up in Week’s 1 and 2, didn’t have a catch versus Buffalo, it’s obvious that New England was trying something new with Gronk, length downfield instead of just touchdowns, ala Hernandez, and trying something new with Giant Gronk may have caused some hiccups in the offense.

Not only that, but Buffalo’s three-headed monster, that later on turned into a three-headed tortoise, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Stevie Johnson, and RB Fred Jackson, were at the top of their games versus the Pats.  Fitz had thrown 7 touchdowns to only 1 pick going into the matchup.  Johnson had already caught 12 passes and 2 touchdowns, and Jackson had already rushed for 229 yards and 2 TDs.

By the time the Patriots faced the Steelers on Oct. 30, Big Ben had gotten into an awesome groove.  The QB had thrown 9 touchdowns to only 1 pick in his last three starts.  Was there any doubt that he was going to have success against the Patriots’ 31st ranked pass defense?  Ben shredded New England for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns, but Ben also threw a pick in the game and went 36 out of 50 meaning that he missed on 14 passes.  It shows that even though New England’s D is terrible when it comes to defending against the pass, coach Bill Belichick can scheme very, well given time, and if he faces an opponent he is familiar with.

Is there a reason for the non-cover versus the hapless Washington Redskins in Week 14?  Yes.  I put money on this game when the line first opened at New England -7 points, thereby securing a push, instead of putting money on it when the line drifted to 7.5.  This game shouldn’t even be on the loss list in my opinion.

Key Stat Against the Spread – - Because the Patriots had to cover big time numbers to win in the sportsbook, and because the D was horrific for most of the season, yielding an average of 411.1 yards per game, the key stat regarding whether or not the New England Patriots will beat the spread on Sunday rests with QB Tom Brady. 

The offense ran through Brady as the Patriots’ averaged 318 out of their 428 total yards per game average through the air.  The Patriots’ ATS records during the regular season along with El Guapo’s QB ratings are below.  I’ve highlighted what I feel are the key QB ratings.

Week 1:  121.6 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 2:  135.7 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 3:  86.1 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 4:  100.1 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 5:  100.7 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 6:  82.3 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 7:  Bye
Week 8:  101.8 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 9:  75.4 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 10:  118.4 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 11:  119.2 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 12:  134.6 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 13:  114.9 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 14:  107.6 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 15:  117.3 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 16:  85.8 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 17:  113.7 QB rating, Win ATS

Only three times did a QB rating of 100 or more from Brady not lead to a victory against the spread.  The spread in those games were:  -3 on the road vs Pitt in Week 8, -20.5 vs Indianapolis at home in Week 14, and -7.5 vs Washington on the road in Week 14.  I’ve already explained what happened in Pittsburgh, how the Patriots had the spread covered before the 4th quarter versus Indianapolis, and why the Washington game shouldn’t be in the against the spread loss column.

It’s obvious to this football handicapper that if Mr. Handsome, as my editor Mike calls him, is on his way to a 100 QB rating or higher on Sunday, the New England Patriots will be on their way to a cover against the spread.  In contrast, based on the QB ratings above, if Tommy Boy is on his way to a QB rating of less than 100 against the G-Men in Super Bowl XLVI, then the New England Patriots will not only be on their way to a loss ATS but also to a straight up loss.

Over/Under Total Record:  11-5

An 11 and 5 over the total record makes for a strong stat, but there are caveats.  Don’t go blindly jumping all over…uh, the over…just because of the Patriots total record and their horrific D.

Yes, there is a chance that Eli Manning absolutely punishes the Patriots’ pass defense.  After all, New England’s defensive backfield of Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Patrick Chung and James Ihedigbo, won’t remind anybody of Ty Law, Tyrone Poole, Rodney Harrison, and Eugene Wilson, the Patriots’ Super Bowl XXXVIII championship winning defensive backfield.  But this year’s New England Patriots’ pass defense has already controlled Eli Manning.  In the Giants’ Week 9 victory over the Patriots, Eli went 20 out of 30 for only 250 yards, 2 touchdowns and a pick.  Baby Manning produced a 77.9 QB rating.

Mr. Budchen produced a 75.4 QB rating against the Giants’ excellent defensive backfield of Corey Webster, Aaron Ross, Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle.  The G-Men actually held Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay’s gunslinger, to a 78.5 QB rating on a 26 out of 46 night in the playoffs.  It’s shows that Webster, Ross, Phillips and Rolle might make up, arguably, the best defensive backfield in the NFL. 

The over is not a “sure thing” in this Sunday’s Super Bowl, and if anybody tells you that it is, then they haven’t done their homework.

Final Thoughts:  Over/Under Total

The total on the Super Bowl has dropped from a starting line of 55 to 53.  That’s actually the key stat regarding the total in the Super Bowl.  Total betting is different than against the spread bettering because total betting requires the participation of both teams on a big level.

If you’re betting over the total, you’re counting on both defenses to take a backseat to both offenses in a game.  I’m finding that hard to do in the Super Bowl considering what New England’s D did to Eli earlier this season and what the Giants’ D did to Tom Brady earlier this season.  Also, what football bettors isn’t impressed by what the G-Men’s D did to Atlanta’s QB Matt Ryan, Rodgers, and San Francisco’s QB Alex Smith in the playoffs?

The fact that the total has dropped from 55 to 53 tells me one thing:  the total is trending towards under.  In order to go against this obvious trend, football handicappers must make a case for both Eli Manning and Tom Brady having extremely hot days on Sunday.  That’s hard to do.

Final Thoughts:  Against the Spread

If you feel that the betting line is fair, and I certainly do since the Patriots are only a -3 point favorite, the team to back against the spread in this game will come down to answering the following questions:

Do you believe that Patriots’ QB Tom Brady will be able to utilize WR Wes Welker and tight-ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Grownkowski?  Also, who will be the 4th target? – - Gronk is walking around without a boot.  That’s good, but is it enough?  Brady has to secure a 100+ QB rating in this game.  That means he will need all three of his best pass catchers, along with a mystery fourth guy (Ochocinco?  Deion Branch?  Who?) suited up and ready to go because the Webster/Ross/Phillips/Rolle Quatrain has been spectacular in the playoffs.

Will Bill Belichick’s game scheming counter the hot hand of Eli Manning? – - Belichick proved, against a hot Ben Roethlisberger in a game the Patriots almost won, that if he knows a QB’s weaknesses, then he can find a way to protect his horrible cornerbacks and safeties.  Also, Belichick gets a healthy Jerrod Mayo for the Super Bowl and Mayo didn’t play the first time these two teams met meaning that Bill can put even more pressure than usual on Baby Manning.  On the flip side, Eli gets Hakeem Nicks, his best wide receiver, to suit up for this game and Nicks sat out the first game between these two.

Whose running game is going to breakout? – - A key for the Giants to winning this game straight up is actually their running game.  They have to keep the ball out of Tommy Boy’s hands and that means getting yards on the ground.  Of course, it also means that one of the keys to the Patriots’ success in this game is stopping the Giants’ rushing attack before putting a beat down on Manning.  Now, if the Patriots can get their rushing attack going, one that averaged 110.2 per game, and Mr. Handsome is on his way to a QB rating of 100+?  It’s game over, as the saying goes, for the Giants.  Patriots’ backers can cha-ching their way to the after hours party.

The biggest piece of advice when it comes to Super Bowl XLVI is this: concentrate on a few key stats, don’t force trends, pay attention to history but only to a point, and don’t, please don’t, bet with your heart.

Good luck with your Super Bowl XLVI wagers this Sunday!

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Historical Lessons of Super Sunday Betting

The big game is finally here and NFL fans could not ask for anything better than a rematch between New England and New York. While both teams used the media day to stifle all the hyperbole about their last meeting at Super Bowl XLII, everyone knows the truth. Both teams care about winning this game no matter what they say otherwise.

Nothing has reflected this more than the Super Bowl XLVI betting line itself. Back in 2008, the book makers edged the line at a hefty -14.0 for Belichik’s undefeated squad, which saw plenty of sportsbooks hemorrhage money faster than a Katherine Heigl movie. The line on that game dropped down dramatically because of the hordes of bettors siding with the dog, making the live game line -12.0 for New England. Of course, the sportsbooks lost out big time in that game.

This year, the line opened at -3.0 for the Patriots and (pun intended) it’s pretty much stayed pat since then. Most expect that line to come down closer to the Giants by game time, but for the most part the action has steadily come in on both sides. For those that understand betting lines, this is exactly what the oddsmakers want. In 2008, they were blindsided by underdog bets. This year, it’s balanced.

You can say that this is a good thing because everyone likes an honest line, but that makes the mega matchup between the Giants and the Patriots is even harder to call with a line like that. What does history tell us?

Super Bowl Betting By the Numbers

To reiterate how important it is that the Patriots are favored, all you have to do is break down the simple numbers. Trust me, I can barely put a sentence together let alone spell “algorithm”. The stuff below is just easy math.

Thirty-two teams that have been favored in the Super Bowl have gone on to win the past 45 games. That’s 71.1 percent. Pretty good odds there, no matter what you think about the matchup (which I’ll get to later in another piece).

The odds get even juicer if you want to take the Patriots because of those 32 teams, 24 have covered the spread as favorites in the Super Bowl. For those of you still without a calculator (and because I’m being paid to do the math for you), that’s a whopping 75 percent. Even better odds for betting New England.

If you look at the line when it is that shady and frustrating +/- 3.0, things get a little dicey, which might suggest you take the Giants. When the Super Bowl line is +/- 3.0 for either team, the underdog is 3-2 ATS. That’s not the most convincing winning percentage, nor is it a good enough sampling size to really hedge on.

Even worse, since 2000 the underdog has only won the Super Bowl 30 percent of the time. That would be the Bucs, Patriots (2002), Giants and Saints. I’d say those are terrible odds for the Giants but since they’re one of the teams that’s proven how good they are in the Super Bowl as dogs, I’d be less inclined to worry.

Overall the favorite has been a better play in the Super Bowl especially with tight odds. When it comes to single-digit odds in the Super Bowl, the favorite has gone 25-6 ATS in 31 games. Again, since the Patriots are inexplicably favored in this game, the odds as favorites are heavily on their side.

Let’s Talk About That 54.0 Point Total, Shall We?

As for the TOTAL, let’s just say that you should probably be betting the UNDER. The Giants averaged 27.0 points per game during the post season, which is up from their 24.6 points per game during the regular season. This team is not only peaking, they also boast weapons at every conceivable skill position including quarterback. Scary.

On the flip side, the Patriots averaged 34.0 points per game in their only two playoff games, which included blowing Denver out of Gillette Stadium. During the regular season they put up 32.1 points per game. They’ve pretty much been putting up points all year long.

What should you take from that bit of info? Not much. These teams are the best in the NFL right now and a big reason is because of offense. Even though Brady has less weapons, he’s still the greatest quarterback that this generation has ever produced and that’s saying something considering the level of competition he’s endured.

However, statistically the OVER has hit 21 out of 44 times (original Super Bowl did not have a total), which is just 48 percent. Even more intriguing is that the average TOTAL in the Super Bowl is just 41.7.

So what about games with hyper inflated TOTALS? Well the Super Bowl has had a TOTAL of 50+ points eight times in the past, and the UNDER has held five times. The only time that games with 50+ point totals have actually hit the mark in the OVER is when they’re blowouts. That’s the 1985 Niners who shellacked the Dolpins 38-16, the 1995 Niners who trounced the Chargers 49-26 and the Elway led Broncos running roughshod over the Falcons.

Just because we’re expecting truck loads of points doesn’t mean that both Coughlin and Belichik will unleash the dogs of hell on the field. Most teams play it tight to the chest, especially early, and you don’t want to be caught chasing a ballooned OVER. The UNDER is history’s play when it comes to the TOTAL, especially at 54.0 points.

The Public Betting Factor

As a common perception, gamblers like to believe that there’s a massive herd of idiots who roam around the betting pastures and mess up the line. The easiest game to point to is the Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl from 2009 where Pittsburgh was favored a preposterous -7.0 against Kurt Warner. The Steelers barely scratched out a 27-23 win, but the line was -7.0 to accommodate the massive public bet on the Steelers.

So the question here is pretty simple: Is New England that much more of a public team than New York?

I mean, we’re talking about the largest city in the country here. Sure, there are plenty of people who hopped on the Brady Bandwagon back in 2001 and stayed there, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that a lot of those pink hat wearing Massholes are actually laying money down.

The inside community of gamblers love to pretend that they’re smarter than the average bear, and not because it makes them feel good or because they’re elitist. They call themselves “degenerates” for goodness sake. But it allows them to account for certain market inflations. Are they for real?

Yes…just not in this game.

The New York Giants have a feverish backing and as much as people like to think that the Patriots are getting the nod as favorites because of their public team status, that’s simply not the case. Back in 2008 it was a matter of the Patriots being a superior team plus having massive public support in betting circles. This year they’re going up against a Giants team that is not only better, but also has a host of believers in tow.

Prop Bets Galore!

As I wrote last week, if you’re not prop-betting on the Super Bowl, then you’re just not gambling properly.

Everyone’s favorite prop bet is still a toss-up. That’s right, I’m punning you right in to the coin toss prop bet. Tails has a slight edge landing 23 out of 45 games so far, and percentage wise that doesn’t get any tighter because that’s a slim 51 percent winning percentage.

But wait! There’s more! For those of you that love watching roulette results, heads has landed three times in a row. It’s bound to come up tails, right? Tails is due!

As for my favorite money maker, I prefer to go with who will score the first points of the game. I went back and checked the last ten years of Super Bowls and here’s what I found: Wide-receivers opened scoring twice, and two others were by tight-end L.J. Smith and kick returner Devin Hester.

The other six opening points were scored by…a kicker! Right now you can get awesome odds on Lawrence Tynes having something to celebrate first at +300, or Gostkowski netting you a +350 on a field goal. Nobody likes kickers, especially Hank Azaria. But if you’re betting on the first score of the game, they’re your best play. C’mon. Six times out of ten! Everyone needs a kicker!

The Gatorade color bet is a complete wash (man I just can’t stop with the puns). Clear/water is one of the favorites at +160 along with yellow at the same odds. I don’t know. I never get this right. I’m sticking with a flier on water getting dumped even though it’ll probably be blue (the color predominantly shared by both teams) which is the long shot at +1200.

I’m moving on from this stupid bet before it reminds me how much money I’ve lost on Super Bowl prop bets. I’ve more than made up for that with fun times and betting on kickers.

History’s Lesson

Patriots and Giants is as good a matchup as you can get. There’s the drama of Bill and Tom chasing Bill and Joe for rings. There’s Peyton Manning and the decimated Colts watching as Peyton’s younger brother and biggest rival go toe-to-toe. It’s a repeat of the biggest upset in Super Bowl history.

If history has taught us anything, it’s that you can’t always expect the expected in the Super Bowl. New England knows this. New York takes nothing for granted. After the butt kicking the sportsbook took the last time these two teams met, even oddsmakers learned their lesson.

History makes dust and ghosts of us all. But in the moment you can be a hero, if you play the numbers right. A tight line is fitting for this game, but the Super Bowl averages and odds lean towards the Patriots even if the matchup doesn’t necessarily do the same. And as unsexy as taking an UNDER is, it’s your best bet along with tabbing a kicker to score the opening points.

How will you play Super Bowl XLVI in the sportsbook? You know the history. Now make your own.

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Super Sunday Mega Preview

When Championship Weekend wrapped up two of the most exciting games of the season, I thought what most of the people around me thought: “Pick ‘em”. New England seemed vulnerable, especially after banking on a missed field-goal to book their ticket to Super Bowl XLV. New York seemed to be peaking, and just as good at every level if not a little bit better.

So when the betting line for this game opened at -3.0 in favor of New England, I was a little bit shocked. In hindsight, it seemed silly for neither team to be favored, but I was at least expecting a tight line of -1.0 or something like that. Don’t get me wrong. Three-points is not a lot, but it’s enough to infuriate betting crowds.

That is, of course, unless you’re betting on the New York Giants who have covered in all of their playoff games thus far. They held the Atlanta Falcons scoreless on offense as -2.0 favorites, then went on to shatter the souls of Green Bay and San Francisco as underdogs in both games. If you’ve loved them so far this season, then you’ll love them with a +3.0 point cushion in Super Bowl XLVI betting lines.

I’ve spent the better part of the past ten days trying to figure out how and why New England would be favored. On paper, New York is simply a better team. Better receivers. Better defensive front. At least a very even secondary with the atrociousness Belichick is relying on.

What am I missing?

Inevitably this led me to bashing my head against the wall about Tom Brady and Eli Manning. Tom attempted and completed more passes for more yards and more touchdowns than Eli, while being sacked four times less. He has three Super Bowl rings already. He’s Tom Freaking Brady.

Still, this year, I watched Eli Manning go from above average to elite all the while marveling at his pocket presence. Yeah, I just admitted I marveled at Eli.

Watch Eli in the pocket and it’s a spectacle that nobody appreciates. He is calm under pressure when the pocket is collapsing. He has a sixth sense for his blindside. It’s not the sexiest thing to admit, but watching Eli Manning play football was like watching Tim Duncan in his best years; just great fundamentals (with a goofy face to go along with it).

In the vortex of this particular season, the gap between Brady and Manning isn’t as astronomical as it is in the grand scheme of their careers. Even then, Brady has four years on Eli both in age and in seasons played (unless you don’t count the year he tore his ACL). There’s still time for Manning to bridge that gap even further, and that’s something I never thought I’d write.

Eli may not have what it takes to become a three or four time Super Bowl winner, or shatter the memory of Dan Marino’s records like the history devouring Tom Brady. But it’s still too early to tell. What I do know is that Manning is just as worthy of a bet in the playoffs as Brady is in 2012.

The numbers speak clearly. The Giants finished the season at just 8-7-1 ATS but what that record hided is that Manning and the Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games including the playoffs, where they’re perfect against the line. In fact, the Giants are a steady 6-1 SU and ATS in their last 7 games.

By now we know that Coughlin likes to pace his teams so that they (hopefully) peak at the right time, and the 2011 Giants are doing just that. It’s still mind boggling to me that they’re underdogs in this game especially with the balance that they have on both sides of the ball.

Neither team wants to revisit Super Bowl XLII, but something about that game stands out beyond the massive upset. That would be the Giants ability to get to Tom Brady. Michael Strahan is the only big name missing from that core group that harassed Brady in to mistake after mistake, and he’s been adequately replaced by the rotation they have built around Osi Umenyiora, who stands as a +7000 longshot for Super Bowl MVP. Listen, you never truly fill a void left by a Hall of Famer like Strahan, but with what New York has up front on defense, they’ll be just fine come Sunday.

I talked a little bit in another piece about “public betting”, and how the throngs of New England backers is balanced out by the immense crowds of fans that like to bet on the Giants. Sure, there are people that will say “Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Tom Brady” but this year is different.

Look at New England’s record for instance. The Patriots were 13-3 SU and 9-7 ATS this season. Coincidentally, the last game they lost was against the Giants in Week 9 where they were heavy favorites at -9.0, while being gutted 24-20 by the G-Men.

Since then they’re undefeated at 9-0 SU, but are just 6-3 ATS which would be fine if those wins against the spread hadn’t come against Denver (twice), Miami, the hapless Chiefs, and the imploding Jets and Eagles.

Since their bye week, the Patriots have played three very good teams, and lost against the spread all three times. They went toe-to-toe with Pittsburgh and lost as -3.0 point favorites. They were edged out by the Giants as -9.0 favorites. Then they barely beat the Ravens on a shanked field goal by Billy Cundiff where they were big -7.0 favorites.

More and more I’m beginning to think that the oddsmakers overvalue Belichik and Brady and are just banking on them to be the monsters that we expect them to be.

Even as -14.0 favorites against Denver in their first playoff game, the entire state of Massachusetts was ready to have a collective heart attack as Tebow came to town. They knew they should win that game (and they did), but everyone was prepared emotionally for a loss. It’s like everyone is waiting for the Patriots’ bubble to burst except the oddsmakers.

If you start breaking down stats, you’ll point to the fact that the Patriots were one of the worst teams when it came to team defense and pass defense. You know who they were right behind in the defensive ranks against the pass? The New York Giants.

That being said, let’s be realistic. Deion Branch hasn’t done anything meaningful in five years other than switch teams. A lot of what Rob Gronkowski (a +750 MVP candidate) does well is make solid cuts for a man his size in order to run routes over the middle of the field. Good luck doing that with a high ankle sprain.

The real worry for Giants fans – and they know this – is Wes Welker, who caught 9 passes for 136 yards against New York in Week 9. The best cover man for the Giants is Corey Webster, who looked like a stud against Michael Crabtree two weekends ago. But amongst all receivers in the league who start, Crabtree is one of the worst route runners there is. Welker could murder the Giants and make good on his intriguing +1200 odds to be the MVP.

Logically, this is where the line starts to make a lick of sense to me. The Patriots are exceptional at passing the ball, and the Giants have had trouble stopping elite passers. During the regular season, the Giants faced top-10 quarterbacks a total of five times and allowed an average of 311.4 yards, a total of 13 touchdowns and grabbed four interceptions.

So this seems like a cake walk for the Patriots, right? Wrong. In the playoffs, the Giants faced three more top-10 quarterbacks (Alex Smith, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers) and allowed an average of just 219.7 yards against and 4 total touchdowns while stealing a single pick.

Are you that convinced that the favorite to win the game’s MVP at -125, one Tom Brady, is the reason to take the favored Patriots at -3.0? Even after all that?

Let’s get away from facts and talk about intangibles for a second or two. A handicapper friend of mine called me the other day to talk about the “been there, done that” factor and inevitably the conversation between us broke down to the pressure test. If Eli loses this game, it’s really not that big of a deal. He already stole the perfect season from the Patriots, and has a Super Bowl ring with plenty of time to win another one. There’s not a whole lot of shame losing the Super Bowl to the best coach and quarterback of this generation.

But Brady losing? That’s unthinkable. He’d lose twice to the same quarterback, coach and team. He’d have gone 3-2 SU in the Super Bowl causing widespread (and unreasonable) panic about how great he actually is. He’d lose in Indianapolis again, this time with so much more on the line. Worst of all, he’d lose the chance to finally catch Joe Montana with four Super Bowl victories.

With numbers, stats, intangibles and tangibles I can’t bring myself to it. I’ve written over three pages and I still can’t convince myself that the Giants are really underdogs. They’re peaking at the right time, have a proven pass rush against New England and they’re playing with much less hanging over their heads than the Patriots.

Every detail I can think of is on the side of the Giants. The only thing that’s on the side of the Patriots in this Super Sunday Football Betting Event are the oddsmakers. And they’ve got it wrong.

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Pro Basketball Betting is the Best Way to Pad That Bankroll Before the Big Game

As I’ve written for a couple weeks now, 2012 Pro Basketball betting is a fantastic way to add some cushion to your bankroll and this weekend is no exception. If you’re looking for some extra change to throw around in the Super Bowl props section of BetUS.com, the best way to do so before you dip in to your own pocket is to take a gander at these juicy NBA odds. You could have more money to play with than you expected.

That’s good news for two reasons. One is the live betting portion of the game, where you can bet on quarters, halves and a constantly moving betting line throughout the game. It’s best not to sink your entire payroll before the game, especially since that negates any possibility to hedge your bets.

The second reason is that Super Bowl betting is the busiest day of all sportsbooks. Loading up your account well beforehand means more money to play with, and the following NBA matchups have big storylines and could have even bigger payoffs.

BOSTON CELTICS over New York Knicks – Friday, February 3rd

Amar’e Stoudemire remains the $100 million man on the outside looking in. He is a go-to type of player, and has been his entire career in Phoenix playing with a point guard like Steve Nash. On top of that, he has always played with teams that emphasize scoring and don’t really harp on defense.

That’s why playing alongside Carmelo Anthony, who has returned from his assortment of joint sprains, and Tyson Chandler isn’t working. Anthony is the type of player who relies on having the ball in his hands and taking tons of shots. Chandler works best when he can influence the rest of his team to play lockdown defense.

The Knicks have been an easy stay away play, especially in big games. They’re just 6-15 ATS on the season and have picked up three easy spread victories over the hapless Pistons and Bobcats, as well as a cheap cover against a -12.0 line favoring the Heat.

Boston, meanwhile, is a big time team again after I had serious doubts, even as recently as two weeks ago. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are playing like it’s 2007 again, which is astounding because many were convinced that KG wasn’t able to jump this year. Tell that to the double-double he scored against Dwight Howard and the Magic last Thursday.

The truth is that Friday night home games are a great bet for teams like Boston because their crowd will push them over the edge. You have to be smart when picking Boston, and their 11-10 ATS record this season is proof enough to tread lightly. But the Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and haven’t been pushed to the limit that much since they’ve had to face teams like Toronto and Cleveland (twice).

If you’re like me, then you have the Giants repeating as Super Bowl champions over the Patriots. But if you’re a Boston fan then you’re going to love the shallow line they have against the Knicks. Look for Boston to pick up a win and give their hometown fans something to cheer about before their reminded about Sunday’s matchup on the turf.

Indiana Pacers over DALLAS MAVERICKS

People in the state of Indiana haven’t had much to cheer about for the better part of six months because of Peyton Manning and Jim Irsay. But if basketball’s your game in Indiana (and it should be everyone’s game in a state like that), then the Pacers are giving you plenty of reason to smile.

Small market teams have a nightmare of a time recruiting big time free agents, so Indiana went the other way and built a contender on a perfectly balanced team of mid-carders. Their entire starting line is averaging double-digits in points, and their depth on the bench at every position has give them the ability to survive a stressful, tightly packed NBA season. They’re like the Dallas Mavericks, only quicker, smaller, faster and younger. And yes, there’s a difference between “quick” and “fast”.

A ton of people thought that Dallas was a one-and-done type of team after last year. They lost Chandler, a few key bench guys and made an old team even older by bringing in guys like Lamar Odom and Vince Carter. And do you know what’s happened? They’re the best in the Southwest (along with San Antonio) and 14-9 ATS which is the best betting record in their division.

The problem with that record is that it was built early, and in the last ten games they’ve flip-flopped against the line going 5-5 ATS while alternating wins and losses against the spread. Roulette junkies would think that means they’re due for a win since they lost their last game as -1.0 favorites against Oklahoma City.

Not true. Indiana has been doing the same song and dance as a betting team largely because they went from a sneaky, under the radar play, to a “everyone’s betting on them now” team.

On the road, they’ve actually fared very well, going 8-6 ATS and they’ll get amazing value against a Mavericks team that is defending its championship and playing at home. The Pacers are vulnerable against big name teams as has been demonstrated by losses against Orlando and Boston, but the Mavericks aren’t the type of team that can bully them with their diversity. If anything, they’re just not fast enough to keep up with the Pacers.

Indiana’s betting bandwagon is soon to turn into a pumpkin because people are catching on to how well Indiana plays. But I still love this matchup for them, and they’re bound to get favorable odds heading in to Dallas. The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games but I’m not betting against Indiana just yet.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS over Oklahoma City Thunder – Saturday

The Spurs are trying to do it again. They’re trying to play possum, squeak out wins and make the playoffs without doing too much. And it’s working. They’re not only tied for the lead in their division, they’re also a cozy 12-11 ATS, which is heaven to people who bet Spurs basketball often. Usually they’re atrocious against the line.

Manu Ginobli is still hurt, but Tim Duncan has a great matchup in this game because Oklahoma City doesn’t have anyone smart enough or talented enough to cover him proficiently. The Big Fundamental won’t drop the Dunk of the Year on Kendrick Perkins, but he’ll certainly pivot and hook his way to a good amount of points and he has the support staff to continue San Antonio’s pretty quiet 8-4 ATS record at home this season.

This is a tough matchup for me because Oklahoma City’s market has been amazing from a value standpoint. They’re 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games, but with a record of 12-9 ATS on the season I know that that means they’re streaky. It’s true. They come up big against decent teams, or dominate when the game leans in their favor.

San Antonio hasn’t let anyone sneak up on them and they’ll gameplan to frustrate Westbrook enough to take him out of his game. San Antonio will receive a generous home line considering the talent OKC boasts. Take the points for the home team. The oddsmakers will dare you to bet Thunder this Saturday.

MIAMI HEAT over Toronto Raptors – Super Bowl Sunday

If the NBA really wants viewers to tune in on a day like Super Bowl Sunday, they’re going to have to do a bit better than this. Granted, highlights of Wade and LeBron embarrassing the reeling Raptors are going to be pretty fun. Chris Bosh has to be delighted.

I’m going to make this short because it doesn’t deserve a lot of mention. You’re looking at a double-digit line. Probably -14.0, which would be comical because it happens on a Giants-Patriots Super Bowl Sunday. Don’t expect an upset here. Take the Heat. Mortgage your house if you have to. If you seriously don’t have enough money for the Super Bowl, this is the easiest way to get some.

Also, the sportsbook will likely have some fun props like “LeBron vs. The Patriots” so check out the specials in the Super Bowl props section before this game tips off at 1pm.

Memphis Grizzlies over BOSTON CELTICS – Super Bowl Sunday

A double-Boston helping on the big day? That’s ridiculous. As if the great people of Massachusetts don’t have enough to be worried about. This game absolutely depends on what happens to the Grizzlies and Hawks on Thursday night, because Memphis is a streaky team in betting terms. They went 5-0 ATS in mid-January, then 0-4 ATS to finish the month off. With a win over Denver, you’ll have to see if they can keep the momentum in their favor.

Despite what I said about Friday’s tilt against the Knicks, I’m not a huge fan of betting Boston at home. On Friday nights they usually play very well. But Boston tends to get inflated value at home. They could be spent by the time Memphis comes to town, and Boston is the kind of team that can rise up and fall flat at any moment.

The Grizzlies are young, physical and hungry and without Rajon Rondo I’m not so sure Boston can seize control of this game. I’d take Memphis as a likely road dog. Probably not the best way to get Boston area fans excited for Super Bowl Sunday. Could be a bad omen too.

Good luck this weekend, folks. Bet this weekend like it’s the most important three days of your life. Most call it Super Bowl weekend. We call it Degenerate’s Christmas. Enjoy.

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New York Super Sunday team Betting Snapshot

New York took the long way to this year’s Super Bowl.  They didn’t win their division until the final game of the regular season and then had to win three playoff games, including two on the road, just to get to where they are right now, playing for the Championship.

When it comes to betting, New York provided an interesting regular and playoff season for BetUS Pro Football gamblers. Keep reading for a New York’s betting snapshot!

Against The Spread

The New York Giants go into the Super Bowl with a regular season Against The Spread record of 8-7-1. Their home record Against The Spread was 3-4-1, while away it was 3-4-1.  As is to be expected with a team that enters the Super Bowl with a 12-7 Straight Up record, the Giants got “hot” towards the end of the regular season and in the playoffs.  The G-Men have gone a fantastic 7 and 1 ATS in their last 8 games.  Those last 8 games include their 5 final regular season games as well as their 3 victories in the NFC Playoffs.

Home Record ATS:  3-4-1

Although analyzing a team’s home record Against The Spread for a game played on neutral territory might not make a lot of sense at first, it’s important to note how a team responds to their fan base. After all, there will undoubtedly be a ton of New York Giants’ fans in the Lucas Oil Stadium stands this Sunday.

The Giants actually have a reason for each one of the home ATS losses this season with the exception of the implosion they suffered against the Seattle Seahawks on Oct. 9.  This is the anomaly game in the ATS record. NYG allowed the ‘Hawks, who at the time had one of the worst offenses in the NFL, to score 20 points in the 4th quarter.  Freaky plays abounded in the game, but the G-Men went into the 4th quarter down 16 to 14.  Therefore, it was a legitimate loss ATS for NYG. 

With the exception of that non-cover versus Seattle, as a 10 point favorite in a 25 to 36 Straight Up loss, the Giants’ other home non-covers (and lone “Push”) make sense.

A 14 to 28 loss to rival Washington as a -2.5 point favorite in Week 1 – - The Giants were 1-2-1 Against The Spread in Week 1 in their past four seasons going into this regular season.

A 27 to 24 push to the Buffalo Bills as a -3 point favorite – -  When the Giants played the Buffalo Bills, the Bills were 4 and 1 Straight Up and 3 and 2 Against The Spread.

A 20 to 17 victory over Miami as a -9.5 point favorite – - The game against the Fins turned out to be Miami’s “back in the saddle game”, as the Dolphins ATS victory began a 9 and 1 ATS regular season finish for the Fins.

A 10 to 17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles as a -6 point favorite – - Rival losses are difficult to gauge and the Giants didn’t properly prepare for the change of pace that QB Vince Young brought to Philly in this game.

A 10 to 23 loss to the Washington Redskins as a -5.5 point favorite – - This game occurred after the G-Men’s important victory over the Dallas Cowboys and two weeks after the Giants almost beat Green Bay in a 35 to 38 loss on Dec. 4. A classic “let down” game.

Away Record ATS:  5-3

The Giants got hot on the road Against The Spread at the beginning of the season and then in the playoffs.  In Week 1, the G-Men lost Straight Up to Washington 14 to 28 as a -2.5 point favorite.  In Week 3 NYG beat Philly 29 to 16 as a 9 point favorite, followed by beating Arizona 31 to 27 as a -1 point favorite.  The away Against The Spread record stood at 2 and 1.  Another victory as a 9-point favorite, 24 to 20 versus Super Bowl opponent New England on the road, pushed the fantastic ATS road record to 3 and 1.

The Giants broke a two road loss streak Against The Spread to the San Francisco 49ers, in a 20 to 27 loss as a 4-point dog and to the New Orleans Saints 24 to 49 as a 7-point road dog, before beating Dallas 37 to 34 Straight Up as a 4.5 point road dog and beating the New York Jets 29 to 14 as a 3 point dog.  The G-Men covered in their two away games in the playoffs, a 37 to 20 Straight Up victory as an 8 point dog and a 20 to 17 victory over San Francisco as a 2 point dog.

The Giants simply play better on the road than they do at home.  The victory over New England was particularly impressive and the G-Men were blown out on the road only once this season, on Nov. 28 against the Saints in the Superdome, a fate that many other good teams have shared over the years.

Key Stat ATS – - It’s all about the running game when it comes to the New York Giants.  When the G-Men get their running game going, they are more likely to cover the spread.  NYG went an awesome 8 and 0 Against The Spread during the regular season when they rushed for 100 yards or more.  Those weeks are highlighted below.   

Week 1:  75 yards on the ground, Loss ATS
Week 2:  119 yards, Win ATS
Week 3:  102 yards, Win ATS
Week 4:  54 yards, Win ATS (an anomaly game versus Arizona)
Week 5:  69 yards, Loss ATS
Week 6:  122 yards, Win ATS
Week 7:  Bye
Week 8:  58 yards, Loss ATS
Week 9:  111 yards, Win ATS
Week 10:  93 yards, Loss ATS
Week 11:  29 yards, Loss ATS
Week 12:  73 yards, Loss ATS
Week 13:  100 yards, Win ATS
Week 14:  110 yards, Win ATS
Week 15:  91 yards, Loss ATS
Week 16:  115 yards, Win ATS
Week 17:  106 yards, Win ATS

Total Record:  8-7-1

Odds makers have become much better at offering correct Total lines. Because of that, the Over/Under was almost even for the Giants during the regular season. 

What’s interesting to note is how the 8-7-1 total record came about. It actually points to how well the Giants’ defense gelled towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs.  By their Week 7 bye, the Total had gone 4 Over, 2 Under, and a Push.  The under went 3 and 1 in Weeks 8, 9, 10 and 11.  The over went 4 and 1 after that.  The under went 5 and 1 in the Giants final 3 games of the regular season and 3 games in the playoffs.

Key Total Stat:  Isn’t it obvious? When the Giants’ defense plays well, the game usually goes Under. This should help gamblers when it comes to them deciding on whether or not to play the Under or Over in this Sunday’s Super Bowl.

The G-Men went 5 and 1 Straight Up in their final 6 games, 3 regular season and 3 playoff games.  The Under went 5 and 1.  That’s an important stat.  The only Over game in that streak was the 37 to 20 victory in the Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers.

Overall Betting Snapshot Analysis:  The Giants can play well on the road, meaning that they should have no trouble dealing with whatever fan base shows up this Sunday in Indianapolis.  Although I didn’t mention it, the G-Men are capable of playing on any surface.  So, the fact that Lucas Oil Stadium doesn’t have a grass field won’t hurt the Giants on either offense or defense.

The key stats regarding the New York Giants provide a great way for bettors to gauge how they want to wager this Sunday’s Super Bowl.  The Giants didn’t give up more 20 points in their last 5 games, 3 were playoff games, and in those games the Under went 4 and 1. The Giants went 5 and 0 Against The Spread in those games. 

In a more telling stat, they rushed for over 100 yards in three of those 5 games.  NYG ran for 95 yards against the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round and 85 yards against San Francisco’s rush defense in the NFC Championship Game.  During the regular season, the Giants went 8 and 0 Against The Spread when they rushed for 100 yards or more.

While a game like the 2012 Super Sunday Pro Football Championship can go either way, smart bettors know that sometimes the trends speak for themselves. Hopefully the ones we’ve given you above might help you get some serious bank!

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Your Super Sunday XLVI Props Free Picks

There’s no way that you can say you love gambling on Pro Football without tossing some money around on the platter of Super Bowl XLVI prop bets that are being released soon. For everyone that’s interested, New England is already favored at -3.0 against New York but there’s plenty of time to speculate who will win that matchup in the coming weeks.

This is about the Super Bowl XLVI prop bets, which BetUS.com has served as an all-you-can eat buffet each and every year. There will be the standard bets, like who scores the first touchdown (Gronkowski Pot Pie, anyone?) or how many yards Tom Brady will throw for, but let’s get to some fun ones first.

Peyton Manning Shown on Live TV During The Game (OVER/UNDER 6.5 Times)
How fast can I take the OVER in this total? The Giants-Patriots is designed to be an astoundingly close game, and they showed Peyton scowling and fist pumping in the first Super Bowl matchup between Brady and Eli ad nauseum.

This Super Bowl is taking place in his house pitting his little brother against his arch rival. How can they not have a camera on this guy at all times? And how can you seriously think that single-digit shots of Peyton is a logical bet to make? You can’t.

OVER/UNDER on times they show highlights from 2004 Super Sunday (OVER/UNDER 4.5 Times)
I’ll have to check my dictionary, but highlights don’t include montages, which they’ll show lots of. There are three huge plays from Super Bowl XLII

1) The Helmet Catch
2) Moss’s touchdown in the fourth quarter
3) Plaxico’s touchdown to win the game

There’s no other highlight worth showing, and I’m not even sure that the Moss touchdown is deserving of revisiting for the production team. I’m sure they’ll show the helmet catch at least once, and Plax’s touchdown gets a nod as it sealed the victory. Beyond that? I’m not sure what stands out enough.

Honestly the safe bet is the OVER, but I just can’t conceive of a way they drag out footage of Laurence Maroney returning kicks or Amani Toomer catching an out route to make it the smart play on this prop.

How long will Kelly Clarkson hold the note “Brave” in the National Anthem (OVER/UNDER 5 seconds)
Before I saw her on Saturday Night Live, I would’ve thrown all my money at the OVER, but considering her current physical state, I’d say she wants to get off national television as soon as possible.

Another factor to think about is the whole Steven Tyler thing. The guy was killed by the public for singing too long, and scaring little children with gender confusion. Trust me. Kelly is no diva. She’ll go five second flat.

Gisele Bundchen will kiss Tom Brady during the broadcast (Yes +200)
The simple part of me is all like, “Of course she’ll be there!” but the more I think about it, the more I lean towards her giving her man the spotlight. She has enough of her own, and the last thing she wants to do to Tom during his record tying fourth Super Bowl victory is make it all about her. Hey, I’d love to see more of her as much as anyone, but I don’t even have the Patriots winning this game. You think Brady wants to be caught making out with Gisele after he loses the Super Bowl? Ok, she’s crazy hot, but still.

Bill Belichik Wears a Hoody in First Quarter (Yes -135 / No -105)
When doesn’t this guy wear a hoody? Well when he’s in Miami pretty much. I’ve never been to the new Indy stadium, so I can’t vouch for how hot or cold that place is, but stadiums are always colder than you think they’re going to be. Though he’s probably not that superstitious, I’d say that Belichik keeps the hoody on for at least the first quarter. You don’t mess with a good thing.

Madonna kisses another woman during halftime (Yes +500)
When she kissed Britney, it was so hot. When she triple kissed with Aguielra and Britney, it was kinda hot. Have you seen Madonna lately? She looks like my grandmother if she was alive and anorexic.

I’d like to say that Madonna’s PR team is smarter than letting her fool herself into thinking that kissing Kelly Clarkson on stage will be “hot” but I also saw how she was dressed at the Golden Globes. I’m just going against this happening because I don’t want to see it.

Whatever your Super Bowl XLVI wishes are, BetUS.com will definitely let you bet on them! Stay tuned to the sportsbook for all of the details.

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