Barclay’s Dubai Tennis Championships: Youzhny and Melzer bid for a spot in the final

Dubai, UAE—That this was not the matchup most expected in the semis of the Barclay’s Dubai Tennis Championships is an understatement of gross proportions. These coveted spots were reserved for notable names such as Andy Murray and Marin Cilic – what would have been a blockbuster billing had it panned out. Alas, it did not. Jurgen Melzer dumped Cilic in the quarters and Tipsarevic trumped Murray in the second round before falling to Youzhny in the quarters.

And that is how the story went – a story, I might add, that features for a third consecutive tournament. Two preceding events, Rotterdam and Marseille, ended with disappointing sub-plot for the favourites this season. Now we have Dubai going down the same road. Djokovic is still in the mix so he might yet salvage a pride for the top echelons of the game. But he has two-matches to play before he can seize the title so I will keep any celebrations in check for the time being and see how things proceed.

So back to the semis at hand: Jurgen Melzer and Mikhail Youzhny have set an appointment in the semis and one lucky player will be in through to the final by tomorrow, to compete for the most prestigious ATP-500-point tourney on the calendar. Which will it be? [Dramatic shiver and the sort...]

Tennis Betting Line: Jurgen Melzer +150 Mikhail Youzhny -200

First Set Line: Jurgen Melzer +135 Mikhail Youzhny -175

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern Time Friday February 26, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Mikhail Youzhny is back in the top 20 mix and looking the part. He arrived in Dubai with a 6-2 mark on the season that included a runner-up finish in Rotterdam and a R32 appearance in Melbourne. In last season’s wind down Youzhny broke out with a victory in Moscow and runner-up finishes in Tokyo and Valencia. His good start on the season was an extension of his form towards the end of last year.

For all these parts, Youzhny enters this match as the -200 favourite to win outright and the -175 fave to win the first set. Further recommending Youzhny in the outright market is a 3-2 lifetime edge over Melzer, which includes three consecutive victories over the Austrian since 2006. It should be pointed out that all their matches have come on clay.

That this is their first match on hard courts should necessarily alter Youzhny’s positive trend against Melzer. Youzhny is an all-surface player with a versatile game that he can switch up to suit surface or opponents.

Melzer will aim to snap his negative trend against the Russian and that the Austrian comes into this match in-form makes his chance better than had been off form. Melzer posted a semi-final appearance in Zagreb and a quarterfinal appearance in Rotterdam and he clearly built on that momentum in Dubai.

What this means: tennis bettors looking to buck the trend will find Melzer a reasonable play at +150 to win outright and at +135 to take the first set. Moreover, Melzer is after his first top 10 victory on the season, in beating Cilic. Could be some confidence in that to swing the match in his favour.

Tennis Free Picks: Youzhny in three sets