Big Ten College Hoops – Penn State at Illinois

Big Ten College Hoops – Penn State at Illinois

Penn State vs. Illinois (-9)

Tuesday, January 12 – 9:00 PM ET

The Penn State Nittany Lions (8-7 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 6-5 O/U) aren’t playing very well right now, having dropped three straight games coming into tonight’s contest including a 64-55 home loss to Michigan on Thursday.

Penn State failed to cover the college basketball spread as a 2-point home favorite to fall to 4-5 ATS over their last nine games overall as Michigan roared back from a 15-point halftime deficit to beat the Nittany Lions.

The Illinois Fighting Illini (11-5 SU, 5-10 ATS, 10-2 O/U) have won two consecutive games and three of four overall, including a 66-60 win over the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday.

The Fighting Illini’ failed to cover the college basketball odds as a 6.5-point road favorite to fall to 1-5 ATS over their last six games.

Key Trends

• Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
• Fighting Illini are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
• Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Illinois.
• Nittany Lions are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
• Underdog is 10-1-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Analysis: The key trends for this contest suggest a convincing ATS victory for Penn State at the very least, but I’m banking on the Fighting Illini’ to handle the struggling Nittany Lions at home tonight.

I know Penn State has covered the NCAAB moneyline in six consecutive games against Illinois while going an impressive 4-2 SU during the stretch, but Illinois averages 10 points per game more than Penn State this season and has the better team in this rivalry for the first time in about three seasons.

Yes, the Nittany have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog while Illinois has gone a dismal 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against Big Ten schools, but I’m betting on the Fighting Illini’ to put a dent in both of those trends by handing Penn State a convincing loss tonight.

Illinois has not lost a single game at home this season (9-0) while the Nittany Lions have gone just 1-2 SU on the road so far.

NCAAB Expert Picks: Illinois -9 Points