Capital One Bowl Free Pick – LSU Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany

The college football betting season enters 2010 with a flurry of games. In what promises to be one of the best non-BCS games of the entire bowl season, the LSU Tigers (9-3, 5-7 ATS) will lock horns with the Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2, 6-6 ATS) in the Capital One Bowl at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando.

The Bayou Bengals most likely wrapped up their berth in the best non-BCS game for an SEC team when it beat Arkansas at home 33-30 in overtime in its final regular season game.

It seemed like a foregone conclusion that Penn State was headed to the Capital One Bowl after Iowa was taken to the Orange Bowl. Both of these teams are BCS-caliber squads, and the oddsmakers are having a tough time finding a line to stick on the game. The college football bowl odds feature Penn State as slender two-point favorites, while the ‘total’ has been lined at 43.5.

The Tigers sort of sputtered a bit down the stretch, but considering how brutal their schedule was, it’s hard to blame them. Games against Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida at home and Washington, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss on the road are no laughing matter.

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HC Les Miles should be thrilled that his squad can still successfully muster a ten-win season. The offense has just been brutal at times in 2009, ranking 107th in the land at just 309.8 yards per game. QB Jordon Jefferson has been the subject of a lot of criticism in Baton Rouge, as he only threw for 1,958 yards and 16 TDs this year in the rough and tumble SEC.

Even though the defense only allowed 16.0 points per game, it’s hard to argue that its numbers just aren’t as good as they usually are. LSU’s ‘D’ only ranked 26th in the land at 326.2 yards per game; for a Miles-coached team, better was expected even if the schedule was brutal.

Penn State’s problem this year was playing in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions were crippled by both Iowa and Ohio State on their home turf and ultimately went just 2-6 ATS there.

It was a relatively disappointing year for both RB Evan Royster and QB Daryll Clark, both of which were on the preseason Heisman watch list. Royster averaged 5.8 yards per carry and amassed 1,110 yards to go with six rushing scores. Clark threw for 2,787 yards and 23 TDs, but his ten INTs really drew the ire of Nittany Lion nation at times this year.

LSU looks like a team on a mission right now. The Tigers played a significantly tougher schedule than Penn State, and they’re ready for the challenge from one of the elite teams in the Big Ten. Don’t look for a ton of offense in this one, but that’s how the Bayou Bengals like it. Take the points all the way to the bank in this college bowl betting affair.

Rose’s Recommendation: 2* LSU Tigers

Rating Scale 1* – 5*

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