Belmont Park, Keeneland Back in Action on Wednesday

The weather will be perfect, the turf courses should be back to firm, and the action should be hot and heavy at both Belmont Park and Keeneland after a two day break at both locales.

The feature at Belmont Park is the $70,000 Scoot Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 ¼ miles on the inner turf course.

The turf was labeled yielding on Sunday, but with two days to dry out it should firmer today for a competitive field of nine runners.

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The play of the day is a maiden special weight race with Cedar Grove making her first career start on turf for trainer Chad Brown, who is always dangerous in turf sprints.

There are no stakes on Keeneland’s nine race card, but it is another great betting card with plenty of full fields.

Our Pick 3 play starts with the fifth horse race, and we have several longshots in the three-race sequence that could return a generous payoff on our $24 investment.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 7 Md Sp Wt (4:11 ET)
#1 Cedar Grove 7/2
#7 Miss Dora 4/1
#3 Scenario Analysis 8/1
#4 Timuquana 5/2

Analysis: #1 Cedar Grove tries turf for the first time here in her third career start. The filly stalked the early pace from the outside, made a mild bid around the far turn and then weakened in the stretch to finish fifth.

Ramon sticks on this gal, who is by Speightstown out of the stakes winner Serenita ($213K) who did her best work on the main track but did win one of two starts on the weeds. The barn is 41% winners (with a +ROI) overall in turf sprints.

#7 Miss Dora came with a five wide run around the far turn but could not get to the top pair last out in a third place finish on the main track. Two back this gal earned a solid fig on dirt in a runner up finish at the Spa.

She may take to the turf. She is out of a Housebuster mare that won on turf and has dropped two winners, one on turf, Sold the Gold ($128K).

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,3,4,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,3,4,7,8

Today’s Play of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 8 Alw $49,000N2L (4:52 ET)
#10 Bellaridge 10/1
#2 Lucky Strikes Gold 5/1
#11 Holidayatthefarm 3/1
#4 A Brilliant Idea 5/2

Analysis: #10 Bellaridge stretches out to a route for the first time here after a third place finish last out in her first go against winners. The winner of that race was Nina Fever, a Ward runner who came back to beat $30K claimers on Oct. 10 and then beat $40K starter allowance foes six days later.

She sports a couple of quick works and has enough pedigree to handle a mile. Nice value of we see close to the 10/1 ML.

#2 Lucky Strikes Gold came from off the pace to get up late to graduate in her debut over the Tapeta at Presque Isle in her debut. She should move forward with the surface switch to turf for the Motion barn that is having a solid meeting and is 20% winners with horses trying turf for the first time.

The filly has a nice pedigree, by Smart Strike out of the turf stakes winner Alice Springs ($768K) who has dropped three turf winners, top earner Spring Season ($286K).

Wagering

WIN: #10 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 2,10 / 2,4,10,11
TRI: 2,10 / 2,4,10,11 / 2,4,5,6,10,11

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Keeneland
Starting in Race 5: $1: 1,7,10,11 / 1,3 / 2,4,7 = $24

KEE Race 5 Clm $30,000N2L (3:19 ET)
#11 Richwood Affair, #1 Backside Blackie, #7 Water of Life, #10 Maid of Flowers

#11 Richwood Affair is making her second start off a three month layoff for the Beck barn. Last out she was outrun early, made a mild middle move and weakened to finish fifth against Alw-1 optional claimers.

Three runners came out of that race to win next out including the winner Zonga Zing, who beat Alw-2 optional claimers in her next start on Sept. 16. The mare is back in for a tag here, and on turf she was beaten just a neck at this condition two back at Churchill Downs.

She should move forward second off the bench and the 12/1 ML looks more than fair.

#1 Backside Blackie was a decent third last out against Alw-1 optional claimers after a wide trip, beaten three lengths for the top spot. Borel sticks and with the rail draw we know this gal will not get the overland trip two races in a row with Calvin up.

She catches a weak looking group and this is just her second start over poly in her career.

KEE Race 6 Md Sp Wt (3:50 ET)
#1 Beautiful Song / #1a Unbridled Quest, #3 Fantasma

#1 Beautiful Song returns off a two month break for the Arnold barn. Last out over turf at Ellis Park the filly came with a four wide bid and could not get past the gate to wire loose on the lead winner.

Three runners have come out of the race to win their next starts including the winner Wickedology, who beat Alw-1 optional claimers in her next start on Sept. 3. She was fifth in her lone start over poly, but worth another look here as she does have a poly type pedigree and Leparoux takes the call.

#3 Fantasma is making her first start off a four month layoff for the Clement barn that is 16% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. She as last seen on turf in a sixth place finish at Belmont Park.

She exits a highly graded race in which three came back to win next out and three others came back to run second in their next starts. The $250K purchase has a nice pedigree, by Ghostzapper out of the stakes winner Cindy’s Hero ($372K).

KEE Race 7 Clm $50,000N2L (4:21 ET)
#7 Thunder Perfect, #2 Guarded Entrance, #4 Nikki’s Sandcastle

#7 Thunder Perfect was outrun last out, beaten 15 lengths for the top spot facing Alw-1 optional claimers at the Spa. It turned out to be a tough group as a pair came out of the race to win next out including the winner Prince Will I Am, who won the Jamaica (G1) in his next start on Oct. 9.

The colt takes the hood off and has run well on the fake stuff, breaking his maiden over the polytrack at Woodbine last fall. This guy has faced much tougher in his last three starts and looks well spotted here tagged for $50K and facing non winners of two.

#2 Guarded Entrance is offered up for a tag for the first time since breaking his maiden for a $40K tag back in April at Churchill Downs. He broke his maiden going a mile and the stretch out here to two turns should suit.

He raced evenly last out in a fifth place finish going 5 1/2 furlongs at Hoosier. The winner of that race was Don’t Put It Back, who beat Alw-2 optional claimers with a 95 Beyer in his next start.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #2 Puddy de Luca 12/1
R4: #7 High Seas 10/1
R4: #2 Cinnamon Beach 10/1
R6: #5 Strikealinethruit 12/1
R7: #3 Scenario Analysis 8/1
R8: #10 Miss Seduction 8/1
R8: #6 Proven Right 10/1
R9: #8 Mr. Serious 15/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

Awesome Weather Makes Keeneland’s 8th a Must Horse Race Betting Contest

The weather in Lexington, Kentucky on Oct. 20th calls for clear skies and a high of 72 degrees. That’s perfect weather for grass racing. That’s why making a horse race betting wager on the 8th at Keeneland is what every horseplayer should be thinking right now.

The morning line chalk, 5/2 A Brilliant Idea, faces 11 other equines in this race. Is putting money on A Brilliant Idea to win the 8th at Keeneland on Wednesday a brilliant idea? Or, is there another one or two, or perhaps even three, potential overlaid horses to back?

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Keeneland – Wednesday

Where: Keeneland Racecourse – Race 8
When: Oct. 20th, 2010 at 4:52 pm EST
TV: TVG

Allowance

Purse $49,000. (Includes $7,300 – KTDF – Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Fillies Two-Years-Old Which Have Never Won Two Races.

1 mile over turf

2 – Lucky Strike Gold – - 5/1 morning line odds

Jockey Julien Leparoux has been money on the turf at Keeneland during the meet but, yet again, he’s on a 5/1 overlaid horse race betting shot to win on Thursday. Why? I have no idea.

If Lucky Strike Gold goes off at those 5/1 odds, I will be very surprised. The Smart Strike filly broke her maiden by closing on the Poly at Presque Isle Downs in mid-September.

Now, she goes first time on turf for trainer Graham Motion who is 22% winners with his first time turfers and is winning at a 30% clip with his horses at Keeneland. Jockey Leparoux is one of the best in the world on any surface, but he’s especially awesome on the lawn. The odds are good. What’s not to like?

9 – Catch That Kitten – - 6/1 morning line odds

There was a time when jockey Shane Sellers ruled the southern meets: Fairgrounds, Keeneland, Oaklawn, etc., in this country. Shane’s still a great jockey and he might have a live longshot in Catch That Kitten in the 8th on Wednesday.

The 2-year-old has already run in 5 races, winning one, finishing 2nd twice and finishing 3rd twice, and now goes to her preferred surface. She hasn’t run particularly fast yet, but horseplayers are nuts if they don’t believe she moves up at least a few lengths on the lawn at Keeneland on Wednesday.

Catch That Kitten was sired by Kitten’s Joy, one of America’s great grass horses in the past 10 years, and is out of a Stormy Atlantic mare. She should do very well on the grass.

4 – A Brilliant Idea – - 5/2 morning line odds

The horse race betting chalk in this has run better speed numbers than most of her competition and probably deserves to be the favorite, but the odds are just too low on her to win this.

I don’t knock her at all for finishing 6th in that Grade III in her last, but I do feel that she’s going to be over bet in this race and there are a few in here, mainly Lucky Strikes Gold and Catch That Kitten, that could turn out to be grass monsters.

I’ll pass on betting on A Brilliant Idea to win, but leaving her out of the exotics is tantamount to throwing money away.

Horse Wagering Strategy

I’m going to bet on Lucky Strikes Gold to win and place. I will also bet an exacta with Lucky Strikes Gold over A Brilliant Idea and Catch That Kitten.

I will reverse the exacta for less. I will bet a trifecta with Catch That Kitten, Lucky Strikes Gold, with Catch That Kitten, Lucky Strikes Gold, A Brilliant Idea, with Catch That Kitten, Lucky Strikes Gold, A Brilliant Idea, 10-Bellaridge, 11-Holidaysatthefarm.

Good luck!

Make horse race betting wagers in the racebook!

Breeders Cup Betting – Zenyatta and Blame Work Brilliantly

The likely top-two favorites in Breeders’ Cup betting for the 2010 BC Classic put in terrific works this past week and the BC Turf, after the Canadian International on Saturday is beginning to take shape.

The #1 contender for the BC Classic, 19 and 0 Zenyatta, worked 5 furlongs in 1:02 and 3/5ths. Jockey Mike Smith called it perfect.

I watched the work on TV and there were two things that stood out to me. Although I’ve seen Zenyatta run life a couple of times, I’m out here in SoCal, I don’t remember her looking that massive before.

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She’s always been big but maybe it’s because I’m paying more attention to the Street Cry mare this year, I was floored by how massive this gal is.

I mean, she makes the movie Secretariat look like a pony. At least she did during her last work. That’s the biggest factor regarding Zenyatta that a lot of non-believers are totally discounting. Zenyatta is as big or bigger than most of the best male horses in the world, not the just United States. So, any discussion regarding physicality, that she isn’t strong enough to handle the boys, should be put to bed.

She’s awesome. Her detractors should get over it already.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that I’m handing the BC Classic to her. Not at her likely Breeders Cup betting odds, that’s for sure. It’s impossible to endorse Zenyatta just yet because her biggest rival, the terrific Blame, was awesome in a work as well this past week.

Blame turned in a 4 furlong work in 47.60 seconds on Sunday at Keeneland. Considering that the horse is a Churchill Downs’ monsters the work has to be considered quite impressive.

After all, Blamez blazed over the Keeneland Polytrack, a surface he definitely doesn’t enjoy as much as the Churchill Downs’ dirt. Is he good enough to deny Zenyatta? It remains to be seen but the BC Classic is shaping up as one of the best races on which to wager in the Breeders Cup betting racebook.

BC Turf Shaping Up

The field for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf is beginning to take shape. The brilliant Workforce, winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 3rd, is more than a probable for the race now that Juddmonte Farm’s other BC Turf probable, Redwood, failed to beat Ballydoyle’s Joshua Tree in the Grade I Canadian International at Woodbine this past Saturday.

Redwood finished 3rd in the race to Joshua Tree and Mores Wells and although the performance was good enough to put him into the race with likely Juddmonte entrant Spanish Moon, Juddmonte stated before the race that if Redwood didn’t win the Canadian International, then they’d most likely send Workforce to Churchill Downs.

As far as Joshua Tree is concerned, Aidan O’Brien, Ballydoyle’s trainer, is being coy about entering the U2 named colt into the starting gate in the turf. Knowing Aidan, Joshua Tree might end up running in the BC Classic.

On the American front, well, come on…do we have anybody worth considering betting to win the BC Turf in the Breeders Cup betting sportsbook? Can anyone envision Paddy O’Prado or Winchester beating Work Force, Redwood or Joshua Tree? What about them beating Spanish Moon?

Exactly. Once again, the Yanks should get drubbed in the BC Turf.

The Breeders Cup is just around the corner!

Log onto the sportsbook and make Breeders Cup betting future wagers, click here!

Light Of A Star Deserving of One More Shot at Decent Thoroughbred Betting Odds

The amazing Light Of A Star is deserving of one more shot to back to win at decent thoroughbred betting odds on Saturday.

The Gary Stute trained four-year-old miss failed miserably in her last, a $40,000 optional claimer at Fairplex after giving way on the rail, but Stute thinks enough of the profit generating filly to enter her into another optional claimer on Saturday at the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park.  Does Stute believe she has what it takes to win?  Or, is he just giving it the good old college try before dropping her into the $10,000 claiming ranks?

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I believe he thinks she can win.

Oak Tree – Saturday

Where:  Hollywood Park – Race 7

When:  Oct. 16th, 2010 at 7:00 pm EST

TV:  TVG

Allowance

Purse $40,000.   For California Bred Or California Sired Fillies And Mares Three-Years-Old And Upward Which Have Never Won $10,000 Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races.

6 furlongs over cushion track

pp.3 – Light Of A Star – - 3/1 fair betting odds

Light Of A Star is going to do only one thing, rush to the front out of the gates and try to lead this field gate-to-wire.  I believe the 12 out of 24 lifetime winner will do it because she’s absolutely lone speed in this race.  The only horse capable of going with her is U Turn Me Crazy but U Turn Me Crazy’s style is to lie a couple of lengths or more behind the speed and then to make a run to the leaders.  Light Of A Star should be able to have more oomph in the stretch after bug boy Jesus Agosto Velasquez climbs aboard.  Jesus will weigh only 114 lbs in this.  That’s a big 6 lb difference from what she had to carry at Fairplex and the rail at Hollywood Park should be much kinder to her in this race.  She also runs a ½ a length less in this than she did at Fairplex.  I’m crossing my fingers for decent thoroughbred betting odds on Saturday. 
 
pp.5 – U Turn Me Crazy – - 7/2 fair betting odds

If U Turn Me Crazy doesn’t duel with Light Of A Star on the front end in this, then she won’t win the race, but there are a couple of things that assume she will be on the front end taking on Light Of A Star. First, she gets jockey Martin Garcia who is one of the best front-running jocks in the nation.  Second, she gets blinkers for this race and did show the ability to run on the lead on the turf at Del Mar two races ago.  Of course, that race was as a mile and Light Of A Star finished ahead of her at Fairplex when they hooked up against each other.  There are some things to like.

pp.4 Nothing To Fear – - 7/2 fair betting odds

If the race falls apart, then Nothing To Fear is the likeliest horse to pick up the pieces.  She’s 2 and 1 out of 4 lifetime races, has won over the Hollywood Park cushion track, and runs for 31% at the meet winning trainer, Martin Jones.  She’s got a shot but the likely thoroughbred betting odds make her an underlay bet to win the 7th at Oak Tree on Saturday.

Horse Wagering Strategy

Light Of A Star should have things all her own way on the front end in this.  I’m going to bet on her to win and place.  I will also key her in an exacta over Nothing to Fear and U Turn Me Crazy.

I will bet a Daily Double with Light Of A Star and U Turn Me Crazy with Sebastian Flyer, Kid Edward and Haimish Hy in Race 8.

Good luck!

Thoroughbred betting odds for Oak Tree races are up in the racebook!

Sources:  brisnet.com, equibase.com

Make Music For Me Returns in Oak Tree Derby Betting

Make Music For Me, the surprising 4th place finisher in this past May’s Kentucky Derby, returns to the track as the likely low horse racing odds favorite in the Grade II Oak Tree Derby on Saturday at Hollywood Park.

After Make Music For Me’s incredible Derby finish, his connections thought enough of him to enter him in the Belmont Stakes. The horse ended up finishing 10th and losing by 15 ¾ lengths.

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Because of name recognition, Make Music For Me may go off as the favorite in Oak Tree’s featured race.

Is the Bernstein colt going to make amends on Saturday at what figure to be underlaid horse racing odds?

Oak Tree – Saturday

Where: Hollywood Park – Race 8
When: Oct. 16th, 2010 at 7:30 pm EST
TV: TVG

Oak Tree Derby (Grade II)

Purse $150,000. For Three-Year-Olds.

1 1/8th miles over turf

pp.2 – Sebastian Flyte – - 3/1 fair betting odds

Sebastian Flyte’s victory in his last, in an $80,000 optional claimer on the turf at Del Mar, proves what a quality animal he is, but the main reason to back Sebastian Flyte is because of how he won, not because he won.

The three-year-old Observatory colt laid only 1 ½ lengths off of the lead for the entire race. There is absolutely no speed on in this meaning that Sebastian Flyte should be able to take the lead under front running jock Martin Garcia and coast to a victory.

Gate-to-wire is what I envision and my hope is that because this field is deep, small but deep, Sebastian Flyte goes off at least at 3/1 horse racing odds to win.

pp.3 – Kid Edward – - 7/2 fair betting odds

There are reasons to believe tat Kid Edward bounces back from his disappointing Del Mar Derby run, where he finished 5th and beaten by 5 ½ lengths, to pull off the victory in this.

First, the horse is as classy as they get having been sired by Singspiel. Second, Edward was due for a bounce after chasing the awesome Sidney’s Candy around the track in the Grade II La Jolla a race before.

Finally, Edward comes into this having worked a brilliant 6 furlongs in exactly 1:13 and 2 not once but twice in recent weeks. That means he’s responding beautifully to his exercise rider’s cues.

pp.1 Haimish Hy – - 4/1 fair betting odds

Jockey Alonso Quinonez is a tough guy, but his record at Oak Tree so far has been dismal with only 1 victory out of 33 mounts. He could very well turn things around with this likely overlaid horse racing odds pick that goes Del Mar Poly to Oak Tree grass on Saturday.

Haimish Hy is undefeated on the lawn and has won 4 out of 8 lifetime races. This is a huge step up for the colt but trainer Art Sherman is an astute horseman. It all depends on what sort of trip Quinonez can get for this one and whether or not the horse is actually classy enough to handle these.

Horse Wagering Strategy

I love Sebastian Flyte in this spot. The race sets up for his running style as well as jockey Martin Garcia’s riding style. I’m going to bet on that one to win and place.

I will also bet an exacta with Sebastian Flyte over Haimish Hy and Kid Edward. I will reverse for less.

I will bet a trifecta keying Sebastian Flyte in all three spots with a box made up of Haimish Hy, Kid Edward, pp.4-Jairzhino, pp.6-Blue Panis.

Good luck!

Check out horse racing odds on races at Oak Tree at Hollywood Park!

Plenty of Green to be Won on Green on Saturday

As fall approaches, many of the grass courses in North America start looking brown, but there will be plenty of action on green turf on Saturday, including four Grade 1 races.

Three will be run at Woodbine in Canada, each with Breeders’ Cup implications. The trio of races are part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” series, with the winners guaranteed starting berths in the corresponding Breeders’ Cup races.

Keeneland hosts its last Grade 1 race of the fall meeting, which likely will produce a couple of starters in this year’s Breeders’ Cup, which will be held at Churchill Downs on Nov.5-6.

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Here is a quick look at today’s Grade 1 turf races along with the most likely winner:

Keeneland Race 9 The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
Zagora is the lone runner in the field of eight shipping in from overseas and she appears to have plenty of talent to compete in this wide open race. Last out she was beaten just a couple of heads for the top spot when third in the Prix de la Nonette (G2) at Deauville in France. The winner of the race was Lily of the Valley, who returned to win the Pre de ‘l Opera (G1) in her next outing.

The filly is a two-time Group 3 winner and appears to have enough tactical speed so she should get a good tracking trip from mid pack. She gets the right jockey in Julian Leparoux and I am hoping we see her 3/1 morning line drift up a notch or two.

The value of the race may be Perfect Shirl, who  is coming off a third place finish behind a couple of these last out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1), beaten 1 ¾ lengths for the top spot. The filly stalked the early pace from the inside, had to wait for some running room, had to wait behind runners in mid stretch, and finished up well when clear.

She won the Lake George (G2) two back at Saratoga in her stakes debut and we still may not have seen the best out of her yet. The filly has a few older sibs that could run, including Shakespeare ($1.29 million) Lady Shakespeare ($496K) and Fantastic Shirl ($251K). She may end up the overlay of the race here.

Woodbine Race 8 The Nearctic
Grand Adventure appears to be the value of the race if the four year old colt goes off near his 10/1 morning line. The colt was not at his best in his last two starts, but ran very well at Woodbine this spring with back to back wins in the Connaught Cup (G3) and King Edward (G2). The colt has won five of nine starts over the Woodbine turf in his career and likely will offer better value for the top spot.

The other main contenders are the Ken McPeek trained Bridgetown and the European invader Balthazaar’s Gift. The winner of the race earns an automatic berth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G2)

Woodbine Race 9 The E.P. Taylor
Eight of the ten fillies and mares in this race are making their North American debuts, and the one that looks the most dangerous is Contredanse. The three year old filly is coming off a head loss last out in the Prix de la Nonette (G3) at Deauville. The winner of the race was Lily of the Valley, who returned to win the Pre de ‘l Opera (G1) in her next outing.

The third place finisher was Zagora, who goes today in the QE II at Keeneland. Her Racing Post Ratings of 111 in her last two starts are tops in the field. The winner of the race gets a free ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

Woodbine Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International
Redwood made his North American debut a winning one, taking the Northern Dancer (G1) over the turf at Woodbine, and then shipped back to England. He is back here just a month later and is the 2/1 morning line favorite. He won the race by a half length over Fifty Proof, who was coming off a pair of allowance wins and was making his stakes debut.

The price on Redwood just looks too short, so let’s take a tab with the lone three year old in the field, the Aidan O’Brien trained Joshua Tree. The colt showed a ton of promise as a two year old, put a few minor issues sent him to the sidelines for nearly a year. He is winless in two starts this year, but the fact that the top trainer ships him into this tough spot may bode well that he is sitting on a top performance. He receives lasix for the first time and is making his third start of the year. The 8/1 morning line looks fair enough to give him a good look in this race.

Chinchon, who won the United Nations Stakes (G1) in his U.S. debut and Bowling Green Handicap (G2) winner Al Khali also figure to garner some attention at the betting windows.

The winner of the race will earn an automatic berth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

Racebook Betting Success on the Athenia Stakes Means Betting Against Strike The Bell

Racebook betting success on the Grade III Athenia Stakes at Belmont Park this Saturday, Oct. 16th, means betting against the morning line favorite, Strike The Bell.

The main reason Strike The Bell isn’t a great horse to back to win is because she breaks from the 11-hole in the 1 1/16th mile Athenia on the inner turf. Breaking from the outside on the inner turf course at Belmont Park hardly ever leads to good things.

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If not Strike The Bell, then what horse will provide horse racing betting success on the Athenia Stakes?

Belmont – Saturday

Where: Belmont Park – Race 8

When: Oct. 16th, 2010 at 4:43 pm EST

TV: TVG

Athenia Stakes (Grade III)

Purse $100,000. For Fillies And Mares Three-Years-Old And Upward.

1 1/16th miles over the inner turf

2 – Mary’s Follies – - 9/2 morning line odds

Jockey Kent Desormeaux hasn’t won a race yet at the current Belmont meet but that could all change on Saturday when he jumps aboard Mary’s Follies. When it comes to racebook betting, getting 9/2 odds on any Richard Dutrow trained horse has to be considered “lucky”. Getting 9/2 odds on a Dutrow trained horse ridden by Kent Desormeaux qualifies as “extra lucky”. Mary’s Follies has a 4-3-1 record out of 9 lifetime races including winning the Grade II Miss Revere Stakes at Churchill Downs last November. Mary’s Follies hasn’t run since then but if Dutrow didn’t feel she was ready for this, she’d be entered in an allowance race some place not a Grade III.

4 – Miss Catalyst – - 10/1 morning line odds

Yes, Miss Catalyst is stepping up in class and lost by 10 ½ lengths in a minor stakes race in her last, but she’s trained by Todd Pletcher and is a $325,000 buy sired by Mr. Greeley. The Pletcher angle is enough for me as it’s obvious that Miss Catalyst wasn’t right in her August defeat. The fact that like Dutrow, Pletcher puts her into a Grade III instead of an allowance after the lay off means that she’s well meant.

5 – Tottie – - 7/2 morning line odds

The Fantastic Light four-year-old filly has the best closing kick out of any horse in the race. She might actually be the most talented horse in the race and there’s no doubt that she’s the classiest because her daddy was the best turf horse in the world during his day. So, there’s a lot to like about the second choice in the Athenia. The big knock, and I mean no disrespect by pointing this out, is that jockey Jose Lezcano takes the call aboard her. Lezcano is a good rider, but he’s too patient on the grass meaning that he’s going to let Tottie lope along before getting her to kick it into gear. In a race like this, those tactics will most likely lead to failure.

Horse Wagering Strategy

I’m going to make a racebook betting wager on Mary’s Follies to win and place. I will also bet an exacta with Mary’s Follies over Tottie and Miss Catalyst. I will reverse the exacta for less.

I will bet a trifecta keying Mary’s Follies, Tottie, Miss Catalyst with Mary’s Follies, Tottie, Miss Catalyst, 7-Eye of Taurus, with Mary’s Follies, Tottie, Miss Catalyst, 7-Eye of Taurus, 8-Darjeeling.

Good luck!

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Franklin County Draws Overflowing Field at Keeneland

Friday’s $100,000 Buffalo Trace Franklin County at Keeneland drew a dozen plus two extra fillies and mares, who will go 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course.

The race could have Breeders’ Cup implications, as several of the main contenders could use the race as a steppingstone for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Sprint on Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs.

West Ocean is the 8/5 morning line favorite and is coming off a pair of runner up finishes behind a couple of very talented fillies in Rose Catherine and Dubai Majesty, who have both come back to win stakes since beating the filly.

The Todd Pletcher trainee has landed in the exacta in 10 of her 11 career starts, all on turf.

Included in those victories is the Giant’s Causeway Stakes at Keeneland at the spring meeting.

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Her main competition appears to be the lightly raced Broken Dreams, who was a good second behind repeat winner Rose Catherine in the Lena Spencer Stakes at Saratoga in her last start.

Trained by Tom Proctor, the filly will be making just her fifth career start in today’s race.

The Franklin County is the middle race in our Late Pick 3 race for today.

Today’s Play of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 4 Md Sp Wt (2:48 ET)
#7 Corleone   4/1
#12 Rhondda Gardens   10/1
#2 Bouquet Booth   7/2
#5 Baby Me   3/1

Analysis: #7 Corleone was outrun in the early going and made a mild late run to finish sixth in her debut at Delaware Park. The runner up Full Moon Blues came back to graduate in her next start at Laurel Park on Oct. 9 and two others came back to finish second in their next starts. Pletcher adds blinkers and she gets an extra furlong here, which seems likely to suit. The filly has a nice pedigree, by Indian Charlie out of a stakes placed Mining mare that has dropped six winners, top earner stakes winner Swede (4 for 9, $106K). The Pletcher barn is 27% winners (with a +ROI) with second out maidens.

#12 Rhondda Gardens makes her debut for the McPeek barn that won nine two-year-old races here last fall on his way to the training title. The barn hits at a 14% clip overall with first time starters. The filly is by first crop sire Flower Alley out of a Patton mare that has dropped three foals to race, all winners, top earner stakes winner Bovell Road (2 for 7, $60K).
           
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 7,12 / 2,5,7,12
TRI: 7,12 / 2,5,7,12 / 2,3,5,7,8,12

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Keeneland:

Starting in Race 8: $1: 5,9,11 / 3,4 / 1,4,7,12

KEE Race 8 Alw $51,000N2X (4:52 ET)
#5 The Great McGee, #11 Fast Alex, #9 Aikenite

#5 The Great McGee is returning off a two-month break and makes just his second start over poly. He beat Alw-2L foes three back over poly in a race taken off the turf. Last out he could not handle going a mile on turf, setting the early fractions and fading to finish eighth. Looking for him to bounce back with a much better effort here and he likely is overlooked on the tote.

#11 Fast Alex was badly outrun last out in his first go off a 6 1/2 month layoff. He caught turf with some give to it that he did not care for. He showed plenty of promise early this year, breaking his maiden in his second career start, then beating Alw-1 optional claimers in his first start against winners, both at Fair Grounds. This will be his first race over poly although he did spend some time at Arlington Park working over the surface.

KEE Race 9 The Buffalo Trace Jefferson Co. (5:23 ET)
#3 Broken Dreams, #4 West Ocean

#3 Broken Dreams was bumped coming out of the gate and made a good late rally to finish a solid second in the Lena Spencer at the Spa, which was her stakes debut. The winner was Rose Catherine, who came back to win the Turf Amazon in her next start and two others also came out of the Lena Spencer to win next out. She is making just her fifth career start here for the Proctor barn and still appears to have some upside potential.

#4 West Ocean ran a game second behind Rose Catherine at Philly in the Turf Amazon. Two back she was beaten a neck in the Incredible Revenge at Monmouth Park behind Dubai Majesty, who most recently won the TCA (G2) here on Oct. 9. The filly has landed in the exacta in 10 of her 11 career starts and she will be tough to keep out of the exacta here, but don’t expect to see much of a price.

KEE Race 10 Clm $20,000 (5:54 ET)
#7 Came and Gone, #12 Dont Tell Kitten, #1 Southern Saint, #4 Catch Twenty Two

#7 Came and Gone went from last to first to beat $15K non-winners of two last out in a sharp effort when trying two turns for the first time in his career. He steps into open company here but only half the field has beaten winners, so it does not look like a very tough spot.

#12 Dont Tell Kitten returns off a two-month break and drops into a softer spot here after getting outrun versus Alw-2 optional claimers on the turf. The Catalano barn has been sending out live runners at the meet and this colt looks well spotted.

Price Plays From Keeneland:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #5 Fiji Star   10/1
R2: #11 Flatter Me Rose   15/1
R4: #12 Rhondda Gardens   10/1
R6: #10 Victoria’s Wildcat   8/1
R7: #7 Spanish Comedy   15/1
R8: #11 Fast Alex   20/1
R9: #11 Silver Time   12/1
R10: #1 Southern Saint   10/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today… Click Here!

Full Field in Jessamine Makes for Good Betting Race

Thursday’s feature at Keeneland is the $150,000 J.P. Morgan Jessamine, a 1 1/16 mile turf event for two-year-old fillies.

The race is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Fillies Turf, which will be held on Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs.

The race drew an overflowing field, with a dozen in the main body of the race, and a pair of also-eligibles in case of a scratch.

The morning line favorite is the Ken McPeek trained Kathmanblu, who overcame a bad start to make a good late rally to finish second in the P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga on Sept. 1.

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The filly is 7/2 on the morning line, and that looks as if it might be on the light side, which sent me looking for more value.

I landed on the longshot Ms Anna Destiny, who is coming off her maiden victory at Ellis Park in relatively slow time, but I think she still has some upside potential and is in a good barn with Dale Romans.

If she is not good enough, my second choice Silent Joy is a logical choice to win the race.

The filly ran evenly in a fifth place finish in the Ms. Grillo (G3) over a yielding turf. She is trained by Michelle Nihei, who is the former exercise rider for trainer Todd Pletcher.

After a dark day on Wednesday, Belmont Park is back in action today with a $128,318 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 4 Md Sp Wt (2:35 ET)

#5 Chive Blossom   8/1

#3 Cash for Clunkers   5/1

#6 Palooza   1/1

#7 Julene   4/1

Analysis: #5 Chive Blossom is a $150K purchase making her debut for the Nicks barn that is 23% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The barn was live with firsters at the Spa meeting and we came up with a couple of longshots the trainer sent out. The filly is by Unbridled’s Song (13% winners with debut runners) out of an A.P. Indy mare that has dropped two other foals to race, both winners, top earner Gruenwald ($138K). Decent works on the morning tab and this gal should be a decent price in this spot. This gal has a very appealing off track pedigree.

#3 Cash for Clunkers debuts for the Violette barn that is 24% winners with firsters. The $200K Ocala purchase is by Tiznow (10% winners with debut runners) out of a Dixieland Band mare that has dropped one other foal to race, 1 for 22 Townie’s Dream ($24K). This gal should also like a wet track and should be a factor here if the rains come as forecast.

Horse Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 9/2 or better.

EX: 3,5 / 3,5,6,7

TRI: 3,5 / 3,5,6,7 / 3,4,5,6,7

Today’s Play of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 8 The J.P. Morgan Jessamine (4:52 ET)

#8 Ms Anna Destiny   20/1

#9 Silent Joy   4/1

#4 Accept   8/1

#5 Dos Lunas   5/1

Analysis: #8 Ms Anna Destiny gets the nod in a wide open Jessamine. The filly moved forward nicely when trying turf for the first time last out at Ellis Park. She survived a pace duel and won by nearly three lengths. The third and fourth place finishers came out of the race to win next out. She shares a sire with Goldikova and she sports a couple of smart morning works. Albarado takes the call for Romans and I am hoping this gal still have plenty of room for improvement.

#9 Silent Joy came up short last out in a fifth place finish in the Ms. Grillo (G3) at Belmont Park over yielding footing. She just got up to break her maiden in her debut, and that outing came over good ground. She figures to get some firmer ground here and may be tighter for her second start going long. She has the pedigree, out of the turf stakes winner Silent Emotion ($210K), who has dropped three other turf winners including stakes winner Unspoken Word ($370K).

Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 12/1 or better.

EX: 8,9 / 4,5,8,9

TRI: 8,9 / 4,5,8,9 / 1,4,5,8,9,11

Price Plays From Belmont Park:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #1 Bold Vindication   8/1

R3: #4 More Than a Reados   15/1

R3: #3 Seniors Pride   8/1

R4: #5 Chive Blossom   8/1

R5: #7 Lady Valiant   15/1

R5: #8 Olive Eye   10/1

R6: #3 Black Pen   8/1

R7: #7 Souper Butterfly   8/1

R7: #3 Blazing Honor   10/1

R8: #5 Honest to Betsy   15/1

R9: #4 Aidan’s Slew   10/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

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Keeneland Back in Action After Big Weekend

The first three days of the Keeneland meeting saw eight Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races contested over the historic Lexington, Ky. track

No doubt, the highlight of the weekend was the big wins by Proviso in the $400,000 Abu Dhabi First Lady (G1) and by Gio Ponti in the $600,000 Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).

The five-year-old mare Proviso actually ran faster in her victory that Gio Ponti, last year’s Eclipse Award winner for top turf male and top older male.

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Both are now likely headed to the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) to try to stop the brilliant mare Goldikova from coming to the U.S. again to take the race for the third year in a row.

After the exciting stakes action and two days off we are back in business on Wednesday at Keeneland. While there is no stakes action on tap, there are plenty of outstanding wagering races.

The play of the day is a third level allowance race carded for the turf, which has played fast and firm. There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, which the turf actually appears to need.

The Late Pick 3 starts with the seventh race, and we are going to attempt to start the three-race sequence by coming up with a bomb in Overbid, who ships in from Saratoga for trainer Eric Guillot.

Today’s Play of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 6 Alw $53,000N3X (3:50 ET)
#4 Boots Ahead 3/1
#7 Kennessey 6/1
#6 Desert Wheat 7/2
#1 Whitley 5/1

Analysis: #4 Boots Ahead is coming off a decent third last out in the Red Bank (G3) and returns to the allowance ranks here. He should be tighter for his second start off a 5 1/2 month layoff. He has faced much tougher in his last two starts then he catches here and should be able to handle this group.

#7 Kennessey was a game winner versus allowance foes two back in a photo and then regressed last out trying stakes company at Ellis for the first time, checking in sixth. The winner of that race was Turalurre, who beat Alw-2 company in his next start on Oct. 10. He should bounce back here with a better effort.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 1,4,6,7
TRI: 4,7 / 1,4,6,7 / 1,3,4,6,7

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Keeneland:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 1,2,5,12 / 1,4 / 1,2,5 = $24

KEE Race 7 Clm $25,000 (4:21 ET)
#12 Overbid, #5 Six Pack Abs, #1 Crested, #2 Gruenewald

#12 Overbid drops in for a straight tag after getting outrun going 1 3/8 miles on the turf versus Alw-1 optional claimers last out at the Spa. The winner of that race was Prince Will I Am, who came back to win the Jamaica (G1) in his next start on Oct. 9.

This guy has not been much of a threat in his last few starts at the Spa, but he cuts back in distance and at least he has a win on the fake stuff while he has never run well on turf.

Spa shippers fared well here the first three days of the meeting, accounting for eight wins. We’ll take a stab here at what should be generous odds.

#5 Six Pack Abs is coming off back to back wins at the $18K level at Arlington park over the poly. The gelding overcame some traffic troubles to get the win, his eighth career win over the synthetics. He is sharp enough to handle the slightly tougher company in this spot.

KEE Race 8 Alw $49,000N1X (4:52 ET)
#1 Granny Ramsey, #4 Unbridled Humor

#1 Granny Ramsey was a good looking maiden winner last out over the poly at Turfway Park in her second career start. The third place finisher English Girl came back to graduate in her next start at Hoosier on Oct. 1.

This gal should have no problem handling the extra furlong here as she switches back to turf. She is by Empire Maker and the first foal to race out of the turf stakes winner Changing World ($394K). Gomez picks up the call for the Maker barn and the 6/1 ML looks fair enough.

#4 Unbridled Humor tracked the early pace and finished well to break her maiden in her debut at the Spa for the Motion barn. She put in a quick work over the poly here on Oct. 9 after doing her other prep work at Fair Hill.

She looks as if she still has a ton of upside potential. She is out of the stakes winner Devotion Unbridled ($163K).

KEE Race 9 Clm $10,000 (5:23 ET)
#2 Laura’s Cat Tales, #5 Simone, #1 Sarahthetiger

#2 Laura’s Cat Tales tracked the early pace, came with a three wide bid around the far turn and finished evenly for the runner up spot last out in a good effort versus $15K non winners of three.

She steps into open company here, but this does not look like a very tough group. The filly makes her third start of her current form cycle and won here at the spring meet in defeating $30K non winners of two.

#5 Simone got up late to beat $16K non winners of three in a game effort at Ellis Park on the turf going a mile. She has run okay on the fake stuff, landing in the exacta in three of six trips.

She seldom runs a bad one, landing in the exacta in 12 of her 16 career starts and a repeat of her last effort puts her in the mix here at a decent price.

Price Plays From Keeneland:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #9 Dean Avenue 12/1
R2: #9 Insane Wain 10/1
R3: #11 Royal Affection 10/1
R5: #9 Run a Buck 8/1
R5: #2 The Limon Kid 8/1
R7: #12 Overbid 20/1
R7: #2 Gruenewald 10/1
R9: #5 Siomne 8/1
R9: #12 Commadore Kate 20/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

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