Saturday, May 7, has to be one of the best days in the online sports betting book this year.

Not only are the Kentucky Derby and both the NHL and NBA Playoffs happening on Saturday, but also Manny Pacquiao takes on Sugar Shane Mosley in a boxing match. Then, of course, there’s also the Showtime Southern 500.

What it means is that the best stock car drivers in the world will take to the track at Darlington for a big NASCAR race on Saturday as well. Can it get it any better than hoops, ice, boxing, the most important horse race in America and NASCAR? I don’t think so.

Keep reading for free picks to win this Saturday’s race.

NASCAR: Showtime Southern 500

Where: Darlington Raceway,

When: May 7, 2011 at 7:30 pm EST

Track: Oval, 1.366 miles

TV: FOX

Best Bet A: Carl Edwards +750

Edwards has never won at Darlington. That’s why he’s at +750 NASCAR odds to win on Saturday while Kyle Busch and Jimmie are at +550. Edwards has only won once this year as well, but the average finish of 7.9 is absolutely fantastic. I’ve got the feeling that Carl will come out with a super fast car on Saturday night and find a way to get over the finish line first. He’s never had success at Darlington before, but this is a season for firsts and that includes Edwards winning over tracks that he usually has never won over before. The 7 total Top 10 finishes on the season puts him into the thick of the Sprint Cup Chase, so far, this season.

Best Bet B: Kyle Busch +550

Kyle won his second race of the year on April 30, the Crown Royal 400. Busch figures to keep it going this week at Darlington. He’s obviously become a more mature driver and that, more than anything, has led to the return to form he’s shown in 2011. If Kyle gets off to a good start on Saturday night, then NASCAR fans should expect him to keep it going and at least secure a Top 5 finish. Busch does have a victory at Darlington and he did finish seventh over the track last year. I like Kyle as the favorite, out of he and JJ, to back in this contest.

Best Underdog Bet: Kurt Busch +1500

Kyle’s big bro, Kurt Busch, just hasn’t had a very successful 2011 so far but getting +1500 in the online betting book are too good of odds to pass up on Busch Bro Uno to win the Showtime Southern 500. The older Busch has only one Top 5 and five total Top 10 finishes this season. He’s definitely not doing as well as Kyle and he hasn’t been nearly effective as he was to start the season, when he dominated at Daytona that first week winning both the Duel 1 and the Shootout, but things can change quickly on the Sprint Cup Circuit. I’m expecting Kurt to turn his form around soon. Why not this week?

Others To Consider

Jimmie Johnson +550 – - The champ’s averaging an 8.8 finish this season and has 2 victories at Darlington in his career.

Jeff Gordon +750 – - The 7 victories at Darlington gives Gordo a shot on Saturday. He hasn’t been that hot lately, though, so really do your homework before deciding to back him in this contest.

Tony Stewart +1000 – - Stewart, like Edwards, has never taken home a trophy from a race at Darlington before. It’s tough to like Tony at +1000, but it’s also tough to just write him off altogether. If you like the NASCAR betting odds, then go for it, but if you don’t feel that you’re getting enough value, then stay away.

NASCAR bettors are well aware that the Southern 500 is held at one of the great racetracks on the Sprint Cup circuit, and Jeff Gordon, one of the great stock car racers of all-time, has won seven times at Darlington.

He’s one of the top contenders for this event, which will be held at Darlington Raceway in South Carolina on Saturday night on FOX (7:30 PM ET starting time). Jimmie Johnson, the five-time defending Sprint Cup champion, and Kyle Busch, who holds the race record at this track, are the co-favorites in NASCAR betting at +550.

NASCAR betting

Showtime Southern 500

Darlington Raceway

Darlington, SC

Saturday, May 7 — 7:30 PM ET

TV: FOX

Odds to win Showtime Southern 500

Brian Vickers +4000

Carl Edwards +750

Clint Bowyer +1500

Dale Earnhardt Jr +1500

Denny Hamlin +700

Greg Biffle +2000

Jamie McMurray +3000

Jeff Burton +3000

Jeff Gordon +750

Jimmie Johnson +550

Joey Logano +3000

Juan Pablo Montoya +3000

Kasey Kahne +3000

Kevin Harvick +1000

Kurt Busch +1500

Kyle Busch +550

Mark Martin +2000

Martin Truex Jr +4000

Matt Kenseth +2000

Ryan Newman +3000

Tony Stewart +1000

Field (Any Other Driver) +8000

Did You Know? Darlington Raceway was the first venue where NASCAR had a 500-mile race. It was also the first place where NASCAR raced on asphalt. It’s 1.366 miles, with 23-25 degree banking in the corners. Kyle Busch (+550 in NASCAR betting this week), who won the race there in 2008, holds the record for the fastest race on this track, clocking 140.35 mph.

Jeff Gordon is seeking his second victory of the season this weekend. And there may not be any better place to do it than Darlington, where he has won a total of seven times. Gordon has an average finish of 11th there, and even though he has won on just one of his last ten trips there, the results in his last seven races at Darlington almost mandate that he in consideration for the top two spots.

Going backwards, Gordon (+750 in NASCAR betting this week) has come 4th, 5th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 3rd at this venue. He has the highest Driver Rating at Darlington of any of these starters (117.6). This is the kind of race where he really has an opportunity to make an impact. And another Darlington win would truly come in handy for him, since he is 16th in the Sprint Cup points standings. His efforts have just been too uneven to keep himself up there in the top ten. Yes, he finished third at the Aaron’s 499, starting from the pole a couple of races ago, but that was coming off a tough 23rd-place finish in the Samsung Mobile 500. Last week he left the Richmond Crown Royal race after getting into an accident on the 300th lap.

Based on last year’s performance Jamie McMurray, who is +3000 in NASCAR betting, would seem to deserve some attention here. In 2010 he won the pole (setting the qualifying record at the track) and finished second. And we know that he did well in all of the so-called "major" races. Again, though, he has not driven in a consistent enough fashion to be a challenger for one of the Chase spots. In fact, there has been only one top ten for McMurray, and that was after he won the pole at the Goody’s Fast Relief 500.

Denny Hamlin has run five times at Darlington, chalking up four top ten’s, and he won the Southern 500 last year. And maybe he is a candidate for a repeat, if the runner-up finish in Richmond was any indication of positive change in 2011 form. Hamlin (a +700 NASCAR betting prop this Saturday) is not a serious contender for the Chase right now, and that is the last thing anybody expected after almost winning the Sprint Cup (ultimately finishing second) last year.

Greg Biffle is someone who cannot be ignored here either. Biffle won at Darlington in 2005 and 2006, and among the drivers who will be starting the race on Saturday, he’s got the second-best Driver Rating (113.8), right behind Gordon. Not only that, but he is second in Average Running Position (9.7) and Average Green Flag Speed. Biffle has not had an exceptional season; he is inching closer to contention in the Cup standings (currently 14th), but he’s got just three finishes in the top ten. He might be a bargain price here at +2000 in the NASCAR betting lines.

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes: Martin Truex, part of Michael Waltrip’s racing team, has fired four members of his pit crew in an attempt to pump some life into his efforts. Truex finished in 27th place, despite the fact that he was up near the leaders for much of the day and actually led twelve laps of the race at Richmond.

Truex seemed to imply that the car nor the driver were at fault. "The last five weeks have been very tough on this team," he said. "We’ve run well and have very little to show for it." Truex has not finished higher than sixth yet this year, but his Driver Rating is seventh-best in this field, and he really likes this track, which probably explains the sense of urgency in making the personnel change.

He’ll be starting at +4000 in the NASCAR betting odds this week.

This Sunday, July 31, NASCAR heads back to arguably the most prestigious raceway in the United States, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, for the Brickyard 400.  The race, won last year by Jamie McMurray, figures to be a battle between the usual NASCAR heads of state.

Carl Edwards, who won the Kobalt Tools 400 this year in early March, sits atop the Sprint Cup Standings.  Edwards has only the Kobalt victory to his credit so far this year, but he has ten Top 5 finishes out of 19 races and a total of thirteen Top 10 finishes overall.  The man in second place, however, is the one that everybody, NASCAR fans and non-NASCAR fans alike, will be watching from right now until the beginning of the Chase. 

Jimmie Johnson, who has won five straight NASCAR Sprint Cup Championships, is only 7 points behind Edwards.  At +600 odds, Johnson is a co-favorite with Edwards in the sportsbook to win this Sunday.  There’s no doubt that the +600 are more than fair on the man that has owned NASCAR since 2006.  Jimmie Johnson has taken home three Brickyard 400 trophies since 2006 including winning back-to-back Brickyard 400s in 2008 and 2009,

Kyle Busch and Juan Pablo Montoya are clear-cut co-second choices at +800 to win on July 31.  Busch has three victories on the year while Montoya, although in 17th place in the Sprint Cup Standings, is well-respected at Indianapolis.  Montoya, furthermore, grabbed the pole in this race in 2010,

A slew of NASCAR royalty is going off at +1000 to win the Brickyard 400 on Sunday.  Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart are all at double-digit, +1000 odds.  Next in line are Denny Hamlin, who took home top honors in the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 in June, at +1200, and Roush Fenway racer Greg Biffle at +1500.

Last year’s Brickyard 400 winner, Jamie McMurray, is at +6000 on the board.  After a stupendous 2010, McMurray has only 2 Top 10 finishes and has averaged a 23.3 finish so far in 2011.  Fan fave Dale Earnhardt Jr. is going off at +2500.  Jr., with former Gordon crew chief Steve Letarte calling the shots, has secured 3 Top 5 and a total of 8 Top 10 finishes this year.  He’s a viable long shot play to win on Sunday. 

Entrants and odds for the Brickayard 400 are listed below.

AJ Allmendinger                     +7500

Bred Keselowski                     +3500

Brian Vickers                          +6000

Carl Edwards                          +600

Clint Bowyer                          +3000

Dale Earnhardt Jr.                   +2500

David Ragan                           +5000

David Reutimann                    +6000

Denny Hamlin                         +1200

Greg Biffle                              +1500

Jamie McMurray                     +6000

Jeff Burton                              +6000

Jeff Gordon                            +600

Joey Logano                            +3500

Juan Pablo Montoya               +800

Kasey Kahne                           +3000

Kevin Harvick                         +1000

Kurt Busch                              +1000

Kyle Busch                             +800

Marcose Ambrose                   +10000

Mark Martin                            +4000

Martin Truex Jr.                      +5000

Matt Kenseth                          +1000

Paul Menard                            +7500

Regan Smith                           +10000

Ryan Newman                          +3500

Tony Stewart                          +1000

Trevor Bayne                          +10000

Field (Any Other Driver         +8000
      

Man, the NASCAR betting odds makers are being ultra-fair for this Saturday’s Crown Royal 400 at the Richmond International Raceway.  There isn’t a favorite going off at less than +600 odds.

Three co-choice favorites are actually at those +600 odds:  Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards.  What the odds makers are saying is that the Crown Royal 400, as has been the case this year for almost all of the races, figures to be amazingly competitive. 

Keep reading for free picks to win this Sunday’s race.

NASCAR:  Crown Royal 400

Where:  Richmond International Raceway, Richmond, Virginia

When:  April 30, 2011 at 7:30 pm EST

Track:  .750 miles, D-shaped oval

TV:  FOX

Best Bet A:  Jeff Gordon +800

Jeff Gordon has had great success at Richmond in the past few years.  Since 2008, Gordo has recorded five Top 10 finishes in six races.  That’s awesome.  The Top 10 finishes include a third place finish in 2009 and a second place finish last year.  JG already has a victory and three Top 5 finishes this season.  I fully expect Gordon to come up huge on Saturday with a major, major run to the finish line.  Jeff Gordon is offering more than fair NASCAR odds to win the Crown Royal 400 on Saturday.

Best Bet B:  Jimmie Johnson +600

I’ve go the feeling that the former Rainbow Warrior, Gordon hasn’t been called that in a long time, will end up battling his fellow Hendrick Motor Sports teammate, Jimmie Johnson, for the victory on Saturday.  JJ goes into this race having taken home the checkered flag at the Aaron’s 499 two weeks ago.  The six time NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion is obviously getting back into the groove.  That’s bad news for the rest of the drivers on the Sprint Cup Circuit.  Two in a row is not out of the question for the champ.

Best Underdog Bet:  Clint Bowyer +1500

Bowyer barely lost to JJ at the Aaron’s 499.  Now, Clint goes to a racetrack where he’s had mucho success in the past with a victory and a terrific 9.8 average finish.  If Bowyer’s odds were lower than say, +1200, I’d definitely be all over some other driver in this spot, but Clint’s odds are more than fair at +1500.  CB should not be written off in this race on April 30.  In fact, considering how successful he’s been at Richmond, Clint Bowyer should be considered a contender. 

Others to Consider

Carl Edwards +600 – - A victory and 8.2 average finish this season makes Roush Fenway’s top driver a contender each and every week.

Kyle Busch +600 – - Busch has averaged a 5.2 finish at Richmond during his career.  That’s awesome.  The 2 victories and 5 total Top 10 finishes is another reason to take this guy seriously.

Tony Stewart +800 – - The Tiger could roar, and let out a bunch of smoke from those tires, on April 30.  Tony has 3 victories at Richmond during his career.  The NASCAR online betting odds makers and many NASCAR handicappers, believes that a fourth victory isn’t out of the question.

NASCAR bettors were enthralled last week that a longshot, Regan Smith, was able to win the Southern 500, but this week he’s again a longshot, taking a backseat to a couple of favorites named Busch and Johnson.

It’s time for the FedEx 400, at Dover International Speedway. They will run around the "Monster Mile" 400 times in a race that will be televised on FOX starting at 1 PM ET on Sunday.

Kyle Busch, who won the race last year, is the co-favorite in NASCAR Betting, along with Jimmie Johnson, at +500. Last week’s winner, Smith, is +8000.

This week, if you are talking about someone who would like to carry some momentum into the big race at Dover this weekend, it’s 27-year-old Regan Smith, the surprise winner of the Showtime Southern 500 who amazed NASCAR bettors when he won for the first time in his four-year career last week, posting only his second top ten finish. Smith, who went without a win during his tenure in the Nationwide and Camping World Truck series, almost won at Talladega in 2008, but he was taken down because officials ruled he crossed below the yellow line to get ahead. He is one of those drivers who, as Carl Edwards (+800 in NASCAR Betting to win this week), a former truck teammate and the second-place finisher on Saturday, was quick to point out, is as talented as anybody, but has been handicapped with equipment and resources that may not be enough to compete on a week-to-week basis with more well-heeled teams.

Smith is the only driver for Furniture Row Racing, which is based not in the NASCAR hotbed of Charlotte, but in Denver. The team made its debut in the Busch Series (now known as the Nationwide) in 2005 and operates on a shoestring budget compared to the likes of Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing. Smith has produced its only two top ten results – a 7th place at the Daytona 500 this year and the Southern 500 win. Oddsmakers aren’t very sentimental, however; he is only +3000 in NASCAR Betting to finish in the top three this week.

And why not? Smith has never finished higher than 21st in six starts at Dover International Speedway, the site of this week’s FedEx 400. But right now he is in 27th place in the Sprint Cup points standings; if he can get into the top twenty, his win starts to mean something extra, since this year the rules on eligibility for the Chase are different. The top ten drivers in points, plus the two with the most wins ranked 11-20, will get in.

The co-favorite in this race, Jimmie Johnson, who is +500 in the NASCAR Betting Odds, has won six times at Dover, including three of the last four races, and he has qualified in the top ten in six of his last seven appearances, including three poles. His Driver Rating of 116.3 is the best of any driver who is starting on Sunday.

Greg Biffle won the fall race at Dover in 2008 and, in the spring race the last two years, he has finished third and sixth. He won the pole in this particular event in 2008 and is listed at +2000 to win it all this year.

One of the more consistent drivers at Dover is Matt Kenseth, who has been in the top ten over the last six races, and in the top ten at this track in eight of the last nine races in which he has been able to go the full route. Kenseth is coming off three disappointing races where he failed to crack the top 20, and he can be had for +2000 in NASCAR Betting. Kyle Busch, the co-favorite at +500, has won twice at Dover, including last year’s spring race, and was the runner-up the first two times he raced on the track in Sprint Cup action.

Martin Truex Jr., who fired some of his pit crew before last week’s race, didn’t do too badly, posting his second top ten finish of the year, and he was able to elevate himself back into the top 20 in Cup points. He may shape up as a guy for NASCAR bettors to watch, at a rather long price. He did win this race just four years ago (in fact, that was his only Sprint Cup victory), and he sat on the pole last year. In between, sure, there have been some mediocre efforts, but he may be driving with some more peace of mind now. There was indeed a pit incident, but it was his own doing, as he missed the commitment cone on one scheduled stop and had to circle around again. The Dover location is actually not very far from his hometown in Mayetta, NJ. Truex is going off at +5000 in NASCAR Betting.

NASCAR Betting – FedEx 400

Dover International Speedway, Dover, DE

Sunday, May 15 at 1:00 PM ET

NASCAR Betting Odds

Brian Vickers +3000

Carl Edwards +800

Clint Bowyer +2000

Dale Earnhardt Jr +2000

Denny Hamlin +800

Greg Biffle +2000

Jamie McMurray +3000

Jeff Burton +2500

Jeff Gordon +1200

Jimmie Johnson +500

Joey Logano +2500

Juan Pablo Montoya +3000

Kasey Kahne +2500

Kevin Harvick +1200

Kurt Busch +1500

Kyle Busch +500

Mark Martin +2500

Matt Kenseth +2000

Regan Smith +8000

Ryan Newman +3000

Tony Stewart +1200

NASCAR betting is under the lights at Richmond International Raceway this weekend. The top drivers in the Sprint Cup Series do battle in the Crown Royal 400 on Saturday night. Here’s a look at the oddsmakers’ favorites to ride up front:

Kyle Busch +500

The wild things come out at night. That stands true for NASCAR’s wild child, Kyle Busch, who won last year’s Crown Royal 400. Busch went wire-to-wire, earning the pole and leading 226 laps before taking the checkered flag for his second win at the ¾-mile oval. Busch is on pace for another stellar showing at Richmond, where he owns an average finish of 5.25 – the best among active drivers. This season he’s climbed to sixth in the point standings and is out for redemption after getting swallowed up in a wreck at Talladega two weeks ago.

Jimmie Johnson +500

Jimmie Johnson is very hit-and-miss in Virginia. He’s won three races at Richmond since 2007, but he has also placed 30th or higher twice in that span. Johnson’s three most recent runs on the D-shaped course have produced an average finish of eighth, including a third-place showing there in the fall. He is coming off a win at Talladega two weeks ago, jumping to second in the points, which surprisingly was the first victory of the year for the No. 48 team.

Carl Edwards +600

While most of the Sprint Cup Series enjoyed the down time over the Easter weekend, Edwards was putting the pedal to the metal in the Nationwide Series, winning at Nashville this past Saturday. The No. 99 car will be looking to keep that momentum, and the top spot in the standings, at Richmond this weekend. Edwards has a spotty history in Virginia, boasting an average finish of 16.9. He won the pole there in the fall race but fell to 10th. He’s only posted one Top-5 finish at Richmond, which came at last year’s Crown Royal 400, moving from 28th to lead two laps and place fifth.

Ryan Newman +3,000

Racing fans looking for a longshot wager in the NASCAR odds this weekend should throw something down on Ryan Newman, who is giving plenty of value at Richmond. He’s won there before, taking the checkered in the fall of 2003, and remains one of the best active drivers on the track with an average finish of 11.4. In his last four trips to Richmond, Newman has placed inside the Top 10 three times with the other race being an 11th-place finish last fall. He was running well at Talladega two weeks ago before spinning out twice while bump drafting down the stretch, leaving him to finish 25th. He’s seventh in the points and still very much in contention for the Cup title with three Top-5 showings in 2011.

If you like to analyze the NASCAR odds, you know it’s been a rough year for Kasey Kahne so far, but the budding star says he’s ready to go after a procedure on his knee, and mark martin, past age 50, refuses to go quietly as the drivers line up for the Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400 (also known as the Crown Royal 400) at Richmond International raceway on Saturday.

The race begins at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised by FOX. Kahne is +3000 to win it in the NASCAR odds; Martin is +3500 and is also a -110 underdog in a head-to-head qualifying matchup against Denny Hamlin.

NASCAR odds

Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400

(aka – Crown Royal 400)

Richmond International Raceway

Henrico County, VA

Saturday, April 30 — 7:30 PM ET

TV: FOX

NASCAR odds

To Win Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400

Carl Edwards +600

Clint Bowyer +1500

Dale Earnhardt Jr +1800

Denny Hamlin +700

Greg Biffle +2000

Jamie McMurray +3500

Jeff Burton +3000

Jeff Gordon +700

Jimmie Johnson +500

Joey Logano +3000

Juan Pablo Montoya +3000

Kasey Kahne +3000

Kevin Harvick +800

Kurt Busch +1500

Kyle Busch +500

Mark Martin +3500

Matt Kenseth +1500

Ryan Newman +3000

Tony Stewart +800

Kasey Kahne says he feels fine after having surgery to repair a torn meniscus this week and says he will not miss the Matthew and Daniel Hansen 400 at Richmond. This came after minor surgery on both knees that took place in the off-season.

This hasn’t been the easiest of starts for Kahne (+3000 in the NASCAR odds this week), who is in sort of a "bridge" season on loan to Red Bull Racing before he bolts over to Hendrick Motorsports in 2012 to replace Mark Martin.

He is currently in 18th place, having finished in the top ten three times. He was 37th at the Aaron’s 499, but in his mind, and that of the team, it should have been much better. Teaming with Brian Vickers (priced at +7000 in this week’s NASCAR odds), the other Red Bull driver, he fell victim to a chain reaction after Kurt Busch tangled up with his own teammate, Brad Keselowski.

Kahne wound up with his car on fire, but did indeed get it together enough to finish the race.

Kahne had previously gotten involved in a more serious crash at Martinsville in the Goody’s Fast Relief 500, as he slammed into the wall after being clipped on his rear end by Martin Truex (+5000 in NASCAR odds this Saturday). The incident was serious enough that it delayed the re-start of the race by 15 minutes.

Kahne won at Richmond in 2005, and had three top ten finishes there subsequent to that.

NASCAR odds

Qualifying Matchup

DENNY HAMLIN -120

MARK MARTIN -110

The guy Kahne is going to be supplanting next year, Mark Martin, is not ready to go off quietly into the sunset just yet. Martin, who is a 30/1 shot in NASCAR odds to win the Sprint Cup, is coming off not only his best start of the year, but his best finish as well, as he qualified third at Talladega and wound up 8th. There has been a certain amount of speculation on Martin’s future plans – too much for his taste. Last year there was talk that he might be making an exit from Hendrick Motorsports a year early, which was actually kind of insulting.

If there is time to make a move, it is now. Martin, who is +3500 in this week’s NASCAR odds, was 20th and 25th in his two races at Richmond last year, but he had registered four straight top-five finishes there before that. He’s won only once at the track, but his Average Finish of 12.2 is solid, and he has 27 top tens, along with four poles.

One driver who has had a very disappointing season is Denny Hamlin (+1200 in NASCAR odds to win the Sprint Cup), who has just not been able to carry any of the momentum of his runner-up effort in the 2010 Sprint Cup (with eight wins) into this season. Hamlin has been in the top ten just once in eight races this year, and is mired in the 17th spot in the standings.

We know we’ve said this before, but Hamlin is in a position where he can make up some ground, because Richmond has been an extremely friendly track for him, which it should be, because it’s like a homecoming for him. Hamlin won once in 2009 and against last fall at Richmond; his Driver Rating at the venue is the best in the field (119.8), as is his Average Green Flag Speed and Average Running Position. That’s why he is among the favorites this week in the NASCAR odds at +700, although Martin’s four poles look good to us as the dog here.

JAY"S PLAY: MARK MARTIN (-110) ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

NASCAR betting fans are hoping that the Aaron’s 499 this week at Talladega will give Dale Earnhardt Jr. a chance, and past history indicates that is exactly the case, as the drivers line up on Sunday at 1 PM ET in the race, which will be televised on FOX. Dale Jr. is currently in sixth place in the Sprint Cup points standings, a spot that has been relatively unfamiliar in recent years. In the NASCAR betting odds for the event, Kevin Harvick is the top dog at +600, with Kyle Busch at +800 and Junior at +900.

NASCAR betting
Odds to Win Aaron’s 499

            Carl Edwards               +1200
            Clint Bowyer                +1200
            Dale Earnhardt Jr        +900
            Denny Hamlin              +1200
            Jamie McMurray          +1200
            Jeff Burton                   +1200
            Jeff Gordon                  +1200
            Jimmie Johnson          +1200
            Kevin Harvick              +600
            Kurt Busch                   +1000
            Kyle Busch                   +800
            Matt Kenseth                +1500
            Tony Stewart               +1000
            Field (Any Other Driver)           +2000

Earnhardt, who ran ninth at the Samsung Mobile 500 last week, has really improved his season. He has been outside of the top dozen only once, in the opening Daytona 500. The runner-up spot at the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 has been the highlight thus far. He is +900 in NASCAR betting to win this Sunday, and if he does just that, it won’t be a place he is unfamiliar with at all. Junior has won five times at Talladega; of course, the bad news is that his last victory there was in 2004. As recently as two years ago, however, he was the runner-up, and overall he is second in Driver Rating at this track, with his 92.7 exceeded only by the 93.0 of Denny Hamlin (who is +1200 in NASCAR betting).

Earnhardt won the fall race there in 2001, and then swept both races in 2002. In both 2003 and 2004 he had both a first and a second-place finish at Talladega. It should not come as a surprise that is percentage of laps in the Top 15 is best of anyone who is making the start on Sunday.

Jeff Gordon, who finally broke through and won a race this year, is the only active driver who has more wins at Talladega than Junior does. Gordon, Earnhardt’s teammate who is listed at +1200 in NASCAR betting, had a sweep in 2007, but only one top ten since. Even with that victory in the Subway Fresh Fit 500, he is only 14th in the Cup standings as we enter Sunday’s race. Meanwhile, Dale left Lance McGrew, his crew chief from last year, and picked up Gordon’s old team, along with a new crew chief in Steve Letarte, and clearly this change has had its positive effect. Right now he is +800 in NASCAR betting to win the Cup title, while Gordon is at +1200.

Gordon put an end to a long losing streak in the second race of the year, and Dale Jr. is looking to do exactly the same here. Last week he extended that string to 100 races, and that is naturally the longest drought he has gone through in his career. A lot of drivers go into free-fall when they switch teams, but it’s usually because they are handicapped by money and using inferior equipment. That is not the case with Earnhardt, who is with the glamour team in NASCAR, Rick Hendrick Motorsports. So there’s no reason he couldn’t win on Sunday, or at least finish in the top three, for which he is priced at +250 in the NASCAR betting lines.

The best spot for NASCAR betting is BetOnline Sportsbook!

People who analyze the NASCAR odds know that Carl Edwards, who leads the Sprint Cup standings, may not be able to stretch his lead this week, as his history at Talladega is not sensational.

He is part of the lineup for the Aaron’s 499, which wil take place at 1 PM ET on Sunday, televised by FOX. Talladega, of course, is known as the track "Too Tough To Tame," but Mark Martin did just that 14 years ago. He is +2500 to win this week, while Edwards is at +1200. The favorite in the NASCAR odds is Kevin Harvick at +600.

NASCAR odds

To Win Aaron’s 499

Carl Edwards +1200

Clint Bowyer +1200

Dale Earnhardt Jr +900

Denny Hamlin +1200

Jamie McMurray +1200

Jeff Burton +1200

Jeff Gordon +1200

Jimmie Johnson +1200

Kevin Harvick +600

Kurt Busch +1000

Kyle Busch +800

Matt Kenseth +1500

Tony Stewart +1000

Field (Any Other Driver) +2000

Carl Edwards, who is on top of the Sprint Cup standings, has three top ten finishes at Talladega, but he has not finished higher than eleventh in his last eight appearances there. He has also not started any better than tenth during that period. Edwards leads Kyle Busch by nine points and is priced at +1200 this week in the NASCAR odds.

Paul Menard has found a lot of success with his new team (Richard Childress Racing) and his old sponsor (his family). Menard bounced back from a non-finish in Martinsville (due to overheating) to come fifth in the Samsung Mobile 500. He has been in the top twenty in six of his seven races, and he cruises into Talladega in a position where if the season ended today, he’d be in the Chase (11th place). Menard has had only one top ten finish at this venue, but it was a pretty good one, as he was the runner-up in the fall race in 2008. He may not be a bad value at +800 in the NASCAR odds to finish in the top three.

Bill Elliott may be 33th in the points standings, but the perennial fan favorite has quite a history at Talladega. Elliott has won the pole a record eight times at the track, and recorded one of the more memorable efforts when he came from two laps down to win the race in 1985. Elliott would be part of the "Field" bet in NASCAR odds at +2000.

Speaking of the "old-timers," the all-time record for the fastest 500-mile race was set at Talladega, and it was turned in by Mark Martin in 1997. Martin went 188.354 miles an hour, as he easily rolled to his second Talladega win. Martin is +2500 in the NASCAR odds to win his third Talladega race this Sunday.

If you’re talking about Talladega, you’re talking about restrictor plates. And if you’re talking about restrictor plates, you have to include Jamie McMurray in the conversation. McMurray won the fall race at Talladega in 2009, and was the runner-up in the Aaron’s 499 last year. His best finishes all came without the benefit of a real good starting position. Maybe this is the kind of jump start McMurray needs; he has finished in the top ten only once so far, and he didn’t do a good job in defending his Daytona 500 championship, finishing 18th. Of course, that was on restrictor plates.

McMurray is priced at +1200 in the NASCAR odds to win this week’s race.

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NASCAR bettors know that it’s already shaping up to be a more interesting race for the Sprint Cup, and now the five-time champion, Jimmie Johnson, along with the seven-time most popular driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr., continue to make gains toward the #1 spot in the standings. Johnson is +400 to win the Cup, although Kyle Busch is currently the favorite at +300. Johnson is a co-favorite with Busch to win this week’s Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400 (aka Crown Royal 400) at Richmond International Raceway this Saturday at 7:30 PM ET (televised by FOX). They are both +500 in the NASCAR betting odds this weekend.

NASCAR betting

Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400

(aka Crown Royal 400)

Richmond International Raceway

Henrico County, VA

Saturday, April 30 — 7:30 PM ET

TV: FOX

NASCAR betting

To Win Sprint Cup Championship

Carl Edwards               +450

Clint Bowyer                +2500

Dale Earnhardt Jr        +600

Denny Hamlin              +1200

Greg Biffle                   +1500

Jeff Gordon                  +1200

Jimmie Johnson          +400

Juan Pablo Montoya     +2000

Kevin Harvick              +500

Kurt Busch                   +2000

Kyle Busch                   +300

Mark Martin                 +3000

Matt Kenseth                +900

Ryan Newman             +3000

Tony Stewart               +1200

Field (Any Other Driver)   +4000

Jimmie Johnson is almost at the point where he has shot to the front of the pack in the race for the Sprint Cup lead. Johnson’s win at the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega is the latest in a string of great performances that are making the other drivers in NASCAR’s biggest series very depressed. Johnson has now been among the top three finishers in four of the last seven races. Will that kind of consistency continue at Richmond, where he is priced at +500 in NASCAR betting? Well, he has three wins there – a sweep of the two races in 2007 and again in the fall race in 2007. Last time out, he had a third-place finish. Over the course of his career, his Richmond Driver Rating is 10th best of the drivers who will be starting their engines on Saturday night.

Johnson is still five points behind Carl Edwards, who has been sixth or better in five of his last six efforts. Edwards, who has two poles, started out strong at the Daytona 500, where he was the runner-up (and took the top spot in Sprint Cup points with Trevor Bayne declared for Nationwide) and hasn’t really let up since. No one has as many top ten finishes as he does (six). And he is not only +600 in NASCAR betting to win at Richmond, he is +180 to gain a top three finish.

There was a lot of movement in the standings after Talladega, aside from Johnson, who moved up two spots to #2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. continued his bid to be the "Comeback of the Year" driver with a fourth-place finish, which makes it three top tens in a row. He is third on the list, up three spots, and is +600 in the NASCAR odds to win the Sprint Cup. He has won three times at Richmond, but his average finish there over the last four races is 28.5. So at +1800 this week, you may have to think twice.

The biggest gain of the week was made by Kevin Harvick, who began the week in ninth place in the standings and didn’t qualify well at Talladega, as he started 38th on the grid. But his fifth-place finish, which came just a couple of weeks after back-to-back wins in the Auto Club 400 and the Goody’s Fast Relief 500, has him in fourth place. He is the only Sprint Cup driver who has posted two victories this season, and he is +800 to win this week in the NASCAR betting.

Matt Kenseth turned out to be the big loser of the week; the Wisconsin native dropped five places to #8 on the Cup points list. After winning the Samsung Mobile 500, he got in an accident at Talladega and officially ran 36th. he has not done better than tenth place at Richmond since 2006. There doesn’t seem to be any value at all with him at +1500 in the NASCAR betting odds at that venue.

Kyle Busch may be a dominant figure on the Nationwide circuit, where he has four wins in eight starts, but he is an example of what happens when you can’t continue to put together strong results on the Sprint Cup trail. Kyle (the +300 favorite in NASCAR betting for the Cup) won the Jeff Byrd 500, then finished third in his next two races, but was 16th in the Samsung Mobile 500 and was knocked out after 144 laps two weeks ago, and so two races after he had the lead in Sprint Cup points, he is down to sixth place.

The good news for him is that he is, to say the least, a force to be reckoned with in Richmond, winning two of the last four races there, and coming fifth or better ten out of twelve times, which has produced an average finish of 5.3 for his career. If he can keep his car running, he is likely to be up near the lead for most of the way, and his NASCAR betting odds this week reflect that to an extent, as he is +500 to win and +175 to finish in the top three.