NBA Betting Lines – Heat Look To Eliminate Celtics In Five

The Miami Heat will try to advance to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2006 when they host the desperate Boston Celtics tonight at 7:00 PM ET at the American Airlines Arena.

NBA Betting Lines:
Boston Celtics +7.5
Miami Heat -7.5
O/U 180.5

Miami robbed a victory from Boston in game 4 pushing the Celtics in to the brink of elimination.  Before game 4, all games, including the regular season, were won by the home team covering the spread as well; curiously enough game four was also covered by the road favorite Miami Heat as the Celtics were 1.5 home underdogs.

Lebron James led his team with 35 points in the 98-90 overtime victory on Monday and he was backed up by Dwayne Wade who dropped 28 and Chris Bosh who had 20 points.  Boston’s big three didn’t have the same type of impact with only Paul Pierce going over 20 points while Kevin Garnett looked old and slow while getting manhandled by Bosh in the paint.

Throughout the season the Heat have been favorites from 6.5 to 9 points 15 times and only covering that point spread once, not to mention they are 18-27 ATS in home games this year.

Boston on the other hand is 1-5 ATS in road games where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points and 13-15 ATS after a loss and 20-25 ATS in road games.

Keep in mind that 12 of 20 games between these 2 teams have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

The Celtics have Rajon Rondo listed as probable due to his elbow injury.  Rondo had 10 points in game four but only five assists and he was nowhere near the dominant player we are used to seeing on the floor, expect him to be a non-factor again tonight.

Simmons’ NBA Betting pick: Take the Heat to cover.

NBA Betting Odds – Hawks at Bulls

The upstart Atlanta Hawks visit the Chicago Bulls at the United Center, at 8 PM ET tonight in a must win match for both squads.

NBA Betting Odds:
Atlanta Hawks +8.5
Chicago Bulls -8.5
O/U 181

Atlanta is coming off an amazing win on Sunday but aren’t taking it for granted considering they need to steal a game in Chicago if they want to continue on to the Eastern Conference finals.

The Hawks will try to focus on rotating the ball and get everybody involved as they did in the victory 100-88 on Sunday.  Josh Smith, Al Horford and Joe Johnson all scored 20+ points in a balanced game.  Point guard Jeff Teague showed great energy on the court, even though it didn’t translate to the score card.

Defensively Atlanta’s scheme was to stop every other player but Derrick Rose and closing his driving lanes thus leaving only outside shots.  Rose attempted 32 shots from the field but only managed to score 12  with a final tally of 34 points.  

Dropping game 5 would really put the Bulls on thin ice because even though they  have the best away record on the league, the team still too young to face an elimination game in the road

Take a look at these NBA betting trends:

ATLANTA is:

11-3 ATS off win by 10 or more as an underdog

24-22 ATS in road games

7-3 ATS in all playoff games

CHICAGO:

7-0 Under revenging road loss by 10 or more

12-3 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite

13-8 ATS against Southeast division opponents

Simmons’ NBA Betting pick: Take the Bulls to cover.

Mavericks Even NBA Finals at Two Games Apiece, Who’s the Favorite to Win it all Now?

The Dallas Mavericks evened their 2011 NBA Finals series against the Miami Heat at two games apiece by beating their Eastern Conference rivals 86-83 on Tuesday night. Now, NBA gamblers everywhere need to know just one thing.

Which team is going to walk away with this season’s Larry O’Brien Trophy?

Fear not pro basketball roundball bettors, if you’ve got questions, then I’ve got answers.

To Win NBA Championship
Dallas Mavericks +190
Miami Heat -240

The Heat (72-29 SU, 52-47-2 ATS, 50-49-2 O/U) and Mavericks (71-30 SU, 57-40-4 ATS, 55-44-2 O/U) have alternated SU wins and losses over the first tour games with Miami winning Games 1 and 3 while Dallas took home the bacon in Games 2 and 4.

While the Mavs picked up a quality win that kept them in this series on Tuesday night, they have also failed to cash in for betting backers consistently in this series and played out as a Push against the NBA Finals Odds as a 3-point home favorite in Tuesday’s 86-83 win.

Dallas is now 1-2-1 ATS in four Finals games against Miami as they get set for Thursday night’s Game 5 matchup at 9:00 PM ET.

The bad news for betting backers that like Dallas is the fact that the Mavericks have gone just 0-3-1 ATS in their L/4 home playoff games and will have two of the remaining three Finals games on their home floor should the series got the full seven games.

Another troubling fact for Dallas betting backers is the fact that the Mavs have recorded both of their Finals wins by three points or less while Miami has recorded one win by just a basket, but another victory by eight points.

To make a long NBA Finals story short – and put devoted NBA gamblers on the right path to a winning NBA Finals Futures Odds wager – not only do the Miami Heat have home court advantage in their favor, but they’ve clearly got the best player on either team in superstar shooting guard Dwyane Wade who has unequivocally taken the leadership reins from LeBron James.

While I initially liked the Mavericks to win this series, based on the fact that they are the deeper, more experienced team, it’s become very evident through four games that the Mavs just don’t have the brass balls that are needed to beat out Wade, LeBron and a very good all-star player in Chris Bosh, (no matter how soft he can be).

Dallas has really struggled offensively in this series – mostly because Miami’s stellar defense has put the clamps on everyone but Dirk Nowitzki (thanks Jason Terry). The Mavericks always seem to be playing catch-up in this series – and that’s just not a real good way to go about winning games.

Dwayne Wade’s play has been nothing short of jaw-dropping and his ability to close out games is unparalleled, not only in this series, but likely, league-wide.

I’m an ‘old-school’ guy that doesn’t want to see Miami – or punk-ass LeBron James – win the title in their very first year together, but the fact of the matter is that they are going to win it all, no matter how much we ‘hate’ on them.

I like Dallas to win Game 5, before the Heat head home to wins the final two games and hoist their first NBA Title together after forming their ‘super team’ …. uuuugh!

NBA Betting Lines – Heat vs. Celtics Game Four

Looking to tie the series, the Boston Celtics will host the one and a half point favorite Miami Heat, this Monday at the TD Garden at 7 PM ET, in the fourth game of the series.

NBA Betting Odds:

Miami Heat +1.5
Boston Celtics -1.5
O/U 180.5

Before placing your bet, know that this series has been dominated by the home team and not just in the playoffs but since the regular season also.  The home team is currently 5-0 ATS in games between these two squads but this is the first time the visitors are actually the favorites.

The reason why the Celtics are the underdogs despite playing at home is the unknown status of their point guard Rajon Rondo who was injured early in the second half when he was fouled by Wade in game 3. Rondo scored six points and recorded 11 assists and came back to play with a sore elbow.

Rondo will probably play this Monday but how effective will he be. To me there is no doubt that Rajon is the player that the Celtics need healthy the most. They are completely a different team without him on the court; expect him to play and lead the Celtics There’s no way he’ll miss this game.

For the Heat their game plan should be back to basics as they need to defend the basket better and start winning the rebound battle; not to mention they need to stop the Celtics fast breaks. Boston scored 18 points on fast breaks against only five from Miami.

Also Lebron James needs to step up tonight as he’s coming off his worst NBA playoffs performance in over three years, scoring only 15 points and shooting 6-for-16 from the floor.

Consider these NBA Playoff betting trends:

MIAMI is:

28-16 ATS as a road favorite

1-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less

12-15 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent

11-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record – 2nd half of the season

BOSTON is:

7-25 ATS off SU win by 10+ points

2-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

7-25 ATS after a win by 10 points or more

NBA Betting Pick: Take the Celtics with the points.

Bulls and Mavs, Lead Race for First Place Against Value-Packed NBA Championship Futures Odds

After winning the first game of their respective NBA Conference Finals series, the still-surprising Chicago Bulls and veteran-laden Dallas Mavericks are both looking like favorites to reach the 2010-11 NBA Finals, even if only one of the teams is actually favored in its series showdown.

Thanks to my expert pro basketball handicapping analysis, NBA roundball gamblers everywhere will get the insight they’ll need in order to cash in against the value-packed NBA Championship Futures Odds.

The following NBA Championship Futures Odds are the general ballpark figures being offered by the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Chicago Bulls +165
The Bulls aren’t favored over the highly-publicized Miami Heat in their Eastern Conference Finals but after seeing them annihilate LeBron James, D-Wade and company 103-82 in Game 1, I think they should be. First and foremost, the Heat don’t have a single player on the roster than can guard lightning-quick MVP point guard Derrick Rose. Not only can Chicago’s fleet-footed floor leader get to the rack whenever he wants, but the opportunities it creates for his teammates was clearly visible in Game 1.

Yeah, the Miami Heat still have LeBron James and Dwyane Wade and they certainly are not going down without a fight, but Chicago’s league-leading defense, combined with the fact that they are very deep in the frontcourt, looks like it very well could spell trouble for the Miami Heat.

Miami Heat +160
Miami may have gotten past Boston in the last round, but they’re facing a team whose strengths go directly against their own weaknesses. Miami got a team-high 30 points from Chris Bosh in Game 1, but the fact of the matter is that the Heat are seriously thin at the 4 and 5 positions while Chicago features a more than capable starting tandem of Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah at those positions before turning to the absolutely explosive Taj Gibson and blossoming Omer Asik, two players that have as bright a future as any rookie or sophomore in the league. Miami will need to get some Herculean efforts from LeBron James and Dwyane Wade if they want to win this series, but keep in mind, the Bulls’ vaunted defense held the pair to a combined 33 points on 12-for-27 shooting from the field in Game 1.

Dallas Mavericks +250
The Dallas Mavericks looked fantastic in sweeping the Lakers in the second round and have the look of a focused team that is intent on reaching the NBA Finals and possibly cashing in against the value-packed NBA Championship Futures Odds by winning it all this season.

Dallas laid a convincing 121-112 smackdown on the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of their Western Conference Finals matchup on Tuesday night with all-star forward Dirk Nowitzki looking as unstoppable as ever in draining 12 of 15 shots from the field and a league-record 24 consecutive free throws for a game-high 48 points.

Not only is Dallas getting some MVP-quality from Nowitzki this postseason, but they’ve gotten some stunning contributions from surprising backup point guard J.J. Barea. The diminutive reserve has suddenly made a habit of breaking down defenses with his unexpected mad dashes to the basket, making Dallas even more dangerous than they were offensively.

Oklahoma City +600
I love Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the blossoming James Harden, but I don’t think the Thunder have nearly the bench it will take to keep up with the loaded Dallas Mavericks. Let’s see … Harden, Nick Collison, Eric Maynor and Daequan Cook versus Dallas’ Jason Terry, Brendan Haywood, Peja Stojakovic and J.J. Barea? Yeah, NBA fanatics, it’s not even close with these two teams’ reserves! Kevin Durant will win an NBA title at some point in what looks to be a sure-fire Hall of Fame career at this point, but he still needs a bit more help, particularly off the bench, in order to get it done.

Overall Analysis: If you got the idea that I was leaning toward a Chicago-Dallas NBA Finals matchup NBA gamblers, then you’re absolutely right!

While I think it’s still a bit premature to count out the Miami heat at this point, I just don’t see the Heat being able to overcome their frontcourt deficiencies against a Bulls team that is a much better rebounding ballclub than they are. Chicago’s defensive excellence also means that LeBron James and Dwyane Wade won’t get nearly as many clean drives to the basket as they did against the ‘step-slow’ Celtics in the last round.

In addition to Chicago winning the Eastern Conference, I also like the Dallas Mavericks to put Oklahoma City away in the Western Conference. The Mavs are firing on all cylinders and have a boatload of veteran talent that is very focused on the task at hand.

As far as the NBA Finals are concerned, I’m also going to urge hardwood gamblers to back the Dallas Mavericks to beat derrick Rose and the Bulls to win it all behind their own MVP-caliber superstar.

While the Bulls won’t give up any free baskets, they also won’t have an answer for Nowitzki and the plethora of extremely capable offensive players the Mavs have on their roster. Jason Kidd will do as good a job on Rose as any opposing point guard while J.J. Barea’s play has given the Mavs a huge boost recently.

Basically, outside of the starting point guard position where not many players can compare to Derrick Rose these days, the Dallas Mavericks are better at every position on the floor, which is why they’ll be hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy – and cashing in against the bankroll-boosting NBA Championship Futures Odds.

NBA Betting Odds -Bulls at Hawks Game 6

The Chicago Bulls will try to earn their ticket to the final tonight at 8:00 PM ET at the Philips Arena. They will be looking to eliminate the Atlanta Hawks once and for all to battle it out against the Heat who have already punched their ticket to the NBA final.

NBA Betting Odds:

Chicago Bulls -3.5
Atlanta Hawks +3.5
O/U 178.5

The Bulls achieved an important win on game 5 beating the Hawks 95-83 but they failed to cover the spread by half point. Derrick Rose ended the night with 33 points and proved once again that Atlanta has no answer for him.

Rose received help from Carlos Boozer and Keith Bogans offensively but the most impressive contribution came from the bench by Taj Gibson, who came in from nowhere and scored 11 points shooting 5 for 5 from the field.

The Bulls haven’t had the possibility of advancing to a conference final since 1998, the last year of the Michael Jordan era.  Right now, Chicago has the psychological edge and if they play a lose-easygoing game they could potentially end the series tonight considering the Hawks are against the wall facing their first elimination game of these 2011 playoffs.

Take a look at these NBA betting trends:

CHICAGO is:

32-13 ATS off home game
8-3 ATS when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points
3-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points
14-8 ATS against Southeast division opponents
25-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record

ATLANTA is:

4-17 ATS in 2nd Rd Playoff games
3-4 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points
11-13 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more

Also if you are looking to bet the game total keep in mind 10 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

Simmons’ pick: Take the Bulls to cover.

Miami Heat are Favorites against 2010-11 NBA Championship Futures Odds

The Miami Heat entered the 2010-11 NBA regular season as the odds on favorites to reach and win this year’s NBA title despite the fact that the two-time defending champion Lakers and Eastern Conference champion Celtics had far more impressive resumes – and rosters – once you get past Miami’s ‘Big Three’.

Now with the Lakers and Celtics both on the proverbial ‘golf course’ – and the Heat about to dispatch the inexperienced, but scrappy, Chicago Bulls and MVP point guard Derrick Rose, the Heat are still favored to win it all, as their 3/5 NBA Championship Futures Odds clearly reflects.

2010-11 NBA Championship Futures Odds
Miami 3/5
Dallas 7/4
Chicago 18/1

However, I am going on record right now to tell BetOnline NBA gamblers everywhere that the Heat are not the team to roll with when you make your NBA Championship selection.

Why?

Because Dirk Nowitzki and the absolutely loaded Dallas Mavericks have the look of a runaway freight train that is not going to be derailed by anyone this postseason.

Let’s take a brief look at what the near-lock Heat-Mavericks Finals will look like.

First and foremost, hardwood gamblers should know that this possible Finals matchup will look nothing like the 2006 Finals pairing between these two teams.

Back in ’06 the Heat had a fella’ by the name of Shaquille O’Neal that was still pretty good at the time, not to mention a player that absolutely dominated the Finals in young shooting guard Dwyane Wade.

Now, the Heat are centered around cry-baby superstar LeBron James, Wade and third wheel all-star Chris Bosh. Miami’s most valuable player however, would still appear to be bruising power forward Udonis Haslem.

Lest anyone forget, it was Haslem that had the second biggest hand in helping Miami win its title in 2006.

While the Heat have a trio of star players in its starting rotation – and some capable perimeter shooters in Mike Miller, James Jones and the quickly-fading Mike Bibby, Miami will be facing a much different Dallas team than the one they faced in 2006, starting with superstar forward Dirk Nowitzki.

Back in 2006, Miami was about five minutes away from taking a commanding 3-0 series lead as they trailed Game 3 by 13 points with just over four minutes remaining. A flurry of baskets by Wade, not only helped Miami stave off what appeared to be a sure-fire loss in Game 3, but ultimately lead them to four consecutive wins en route to a shocking 4-2 Finals win.

Now, I am advising pro basketball bettors everywhere, that a scenario like that is going to play out in this year’s NBA Championship.

First and foremost, I genuinely believe that Dirk Nowitzki is far and away the best player in this series. No disrespect to LeBron James and D-Wade, but Nowitzki is now the game’s most unstoppable offensive force.

The sweet-shooting seven-footer can nail three-pointers with ease or take his man to the low post for a now-patented one-foot fade-away jumper.

Not only has Nowitzki raised the level of his play to a newly insane level, but the Mavericks now have a plethora of hungry veteran players that have never won an NBA title in their mostly illustrious careers.

From Hall of Fame-bound point guard Jason Kidd to multi-talented small forward Shawn Marion and big men Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood, the Mavs are almost literally dying for an NBA title.

Sixth Man extraordinaire Jason Terry, the only remaining player besides Nowitzki from that 2006 team, is also chomping at the bit for some sweet revenge against the very same franchise that denied him his first ring.

Not only do the Mavericks have a deeper, more talented and experienced ballclub, but they’ve also got the edge on the bench as veteran head coach Rick Carlisle could probably literally coach circles around counterpart Erik Spoelstra.

So remember BetOnline NBA Championship bettors, while the Miami heat have been talked about and praised before ever winning anything of significance, it is the Dallas Mavericks that are on a championship mission – and one that I say will not be denied!

NBA Betting Lines – Heat vs. Celtics Game Four

Looking to tie the series, the Boston Celtics will host the one and a half point favorite Miami Heat, this Monday at the TD Garden at 7 PM ET, in the fourth game of the series.

NBA Betting Odds:

Miami Heat +1.5
Boston Celtics -1.5
O/U 180.5

Before placing your bet, know that this series has been dominated by the home team and not just in the playoffs but since the regular season also.  The home team is currently 5-0 ATS in games between these two squads but this is the first time the visitors are actually the favorites.

The reason why the Celtics are the underdogs despite playing at home is the unknown status of their point guard Rajon Rondo who was injured early in the second half when he was fouled by Wade in game 3. Rondo scored six points and recorded 11 assists and came back to play with a sore elbow.

Rondo will probably play this Monday but how effective will he be. To me there is no doubt that Rajon is the player that the Celtics need healthy the most. They are completely a different team without him on the court; expect him to play and lead the Celtics There’s no way he’ll miss this game.

For the Heat their game plan should be back to basics as they need to defend the basket better and start winning the rebound battle; not to mention they need to stop the Celtics fast breaks. Boston scored 18 points on fast breaks against only five from Miami.

Also Lebron James needs to step up tonight as he’s coming off his worst NBA playoffs performance in over three years, scoring only 15 points and shooting 6-for-16 from the floor.

Consider these NBA Playoff betting trends:

MIAMI is:

28-16 ATS as a road favorite

1-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less

12-15 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent

11-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record – 2nd half of the season

BOSTON is:

7-25 ATS off SU win by 10+ points

2-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

7-25 ATS after a win by 10 points or more

NBA Betting Pick: Take the Celtics with the points.

NBA Betting Odds -Bulls at Hawks Game 6

The Chicago Bulls will try to earn their ticket to the final tonight at 8:00 PM ET at the Philips Arena. They will be looking to eliminate the Atlanta Hawks once and for all to battle it out against the Heat who have already punched their ticket to the NBA final.

NBA Betting Odds:

Chicago Bulls -3.5
Atlanta Hawks +3.5
O/U 178.5

The Bulls achieved an important win on game 5 beating the Hawks 95-83 but they failed to cover the spread by half point. Derrick Rose ended the night with 33 points and proved once again that Atlanta has no answer for him.

Rose received help from Carlos Boozer and Keith Bogans offensively but the most impressive contribution came from the bench by Taj Gibson, who came in from nowhere and scored 11 points shooting 5 for 5 from the field.

The Bulls haven’t had the possibility of advancing to a conference final since 1998, the last year of the Michael Jordan era.  Right now, Chicago has the psychological edge and if they play a lose-easygoing game they could potentially end the series tonight considering the Hawks are against the wall facing their first elimination game of these 2011 playoffs.

Take a look at these NBA betting trends:

CHICAGO is:

32-13 ATS off home game
8-3 ATS when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points
3-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points
14-8 ATS against Southeast division opponents
25-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record

ATLANTA is:

4-17 ATS in 2nd Rd Playoff games
3-4 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points
11-13 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more

Also if you are looking to bet the game total keep in mind 10 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

Simmons’ pick: Take the Bulls to cover.

NBA Betting Odds – Grizzlies at Thunder Game 5

If the Thunder want to reach the Western Conference finals since their relocation from Seattle, they need to beat the Memphis Grizzlies tonight at Oklahoma City Arena at 9:30 PM ET.

NBA Betting Odds:
Memphis Grizzlies +6.5
Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5
O/U 197

Neither Oklahoma City nor Memphis have been able to win two games in a row in this series and both have dropped huge leads which lead to lost games.

The Thunder trailed by 18 in the first half of game 4 but then they rallied to take a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter.  OKC went on to beat Memphis 133-123 in a marathon triple overtime to tie the series 2-2.

OKC has to be worried why Russell Westbrook is taking more shots that star player Kevin Durant.  This team needs to put the ball in Durant’s hands and let him pick apart the Memphis D.

The last time this franchise went to the Western Conference finals was back in 1996 when they were the Seattle Super Sonics, beating the then two times champions Houston Rockets and losing against Michael Jordan’s Bulls in the finals.  A win tonight will be a step back to the franchise glory days in Seattle.

For Memphis the key will be controlling the pace of the game, especially considering they have put a 100+ points on every single match they have played against OKC.  This means to clock management and playing timely defense will be needed to get the W.

Consider these NBA betting trends:

MEMPHIS is:

30-13 ATS as an underdog

16-5 ATS against Northwest division opponents

7-3 ATS in all playoff games

31-12 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent

10-2 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite

9-2 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more

OKLAHOMA CITY is:

9-1 Over after a combined score of 225+ points

17-20 ATS after allowing 105 points or more

25-30 ATS versus good offensive teams – scoring 99+ points/game

Simmons’ NBA betting pick: take the Thunder to win the game but the Grizzlies will cover.

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