Go Bankroll-Boosting 3-for-3 against College Basketball Sportsbook Odds as Ducks Host Bluejays in CBI Championship Series Finale

I know the ‘roll with me’ headline my make it seem like I’m an overconfident jackass (I’ve been called worse … thanks honey), but I really am confident that I’ve got a ‘near-lock’ of a college basketball sportsbook betting selection on my hands tonight.

The Creighton Bluejays will visit the Oregon Ducks in the final game of the CBI Tournament’s ingenious three-game Championship Series when the two impressive ballclubs meet at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon tonight at 10:00 PM ET.

Creighton at Oregon 10:00 PM ET

CBI Championship Game 3 – Live from Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, OR

TV: HDNet

NCAAB Odds

Oregon -4

Over/Under 140.5

Key Trends

• Bluejays are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

• Bluejays are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.

• Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less.

• Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Let’s take a brief look at each team in tonight’s matchup before I get on with my near-lock college basketball betting selection.

Analysis: Creighton (23-15 SU, 21-15 ATS, 17-19 O/U) had their four-game SU and ATS winning streaks snapped in its 71-58 CBI Game 2 Championship Series loss to Oregon while failing to cover the NCAA college basketball sportsbook betting line as a 4.5-point road underdog.

The Bluejays also had a four-game Over streak against the O/U Total come to an end as the final score played Under the 144-point Over/Under Total.

Oregon (20-18 SU, 19-17 ATS, 19-15-1 O/U) has also won four of its L/5 games and bounced back from its 84-76 Game 1 championship series loss against Creighton as a 4-point road dog, to cash in against the ‘Jays as a 4.5-point home favorite.

The Ducks placed three players in double figures in scoring, including lead-scorer Joevan Catron as the senior forward scored a game-high 18 points.

Creighton got a really subpar game from lead scorer Doug McDermott as the freshman forward scored just six points, nearly nine bellows his season average of 14.9 points per game.

Prediction: I’m going to keep it short and sweet for my BetOnline NCAA college basketball betting brethren by saying that the Oregon Ducks should be thanking their lucks stars – or maybe, the University Chancellor or Athletic Director for shelling out the extra $75,000 to have this final championship series game on their home floor.

Why?

Because the home team has won a nearly unblemished 15 of the 16 games played during the course of this year’s CBI Tournament.

Oregon looked like a totally different team than the one that lost to Creighton by eight points on the road in the series opener.

Bolstered by their raucous home crowd, the Ducks shot a blistering 53.4 percent from the field (31-for-58) while limiting the Bluejays to just 18-for-43 shooting (41.9 percent) that looks even worse when you consider the fact that Creighton shot 7-for-18 from three-point distance.

The Bluejays have bounced back well from a loss for their college basketball sportsbook betting backers, posting a perfect 4-0 ATS in their L/4 games following an SU loss – but the key trend I really believe BetOnline NCAA college basketball betting enthusiasts need to look at is the fact that the Bluejays are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.

While the Creighton Bluejays have had an absolutely phenomenal season in reaching 23 wins and clearly have something to build on for next season, the Oregon Ducks are the easy pick to win and cash in tonight!

If you didn’t know before, now you know … Creighton has lost eight consecutive road games dating back to their Jan. 9 road win over Evansville.

CBI Tournament Championship Pick: Oregon -4 Points

NCAA Basketball Odds – NCAA Tournament Madness to Continue Tonight as Butler Looks to Upend UConn in Title Tilt

It may not be March anymore college basketball bettors, but the Madness that is the NCAA Basketball Tournament will continue for one more night when the eighth-seeded Butler Bulldogs look to pull off the upset over the  third-seeded UConn Huskies and cash in against the value-packed NCAA Basketball Odds in tonight’s NCAA Tournament title tilt.

Both teams will take to the court at Reliant Stadium in Houston tonight at 9:20 PM.

No. 8 Butler at No. 3 Connecticut 9:20 PM ET
Live from Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX
TV: CBS

NCAAB Odds
Connecticut -3
Over/Under 128.5

Butler 411

Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.

Bulldogs are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 NCAA Tournament games.

The Butler Bulldogs (28-9 SU, 20-13-2 ATS, 20-14-1 O/U) have won a whopping 14 consecutive games coming into tonight’s college basketball betting showdown with the Huskies while cashing in against the BetOnline NCAA Basketball Odds in each of their last seven games.

Butler picked up a thrilling 70-62 win over VCU in its Final Four showdown on Saturday night to cash in against the NCAA Basketball Odds as a 3.5-point underdog, just as I predicted in the BetOnline basketball news section that day. Junior shooting guard Shelvin Mack scored a team-high 24 points to lead the Bulldogs to victory while Matt Howard added 17 points in the win.

UConn 411

Huskies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.

Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Huskies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.

The Connecticut Huskies (31-9 SU, 22-12 ATS, 14-19-1 O/U) have won 10 straight games while covering the NCAA Basketball Odds in nine of their L/10 games. The Huskies eked out a narrow 56-55 win over Kentucky in its Final Four matchup to cash in against the college basketball betting line as a 2-point underdog despite my NCAAB pick otherwise on Saturday.

Junior point guard Kemba Walker scored a game-high 18 points to lead the Huskies to victory while freshman shooting guard Jeremy Lamb added 12 points on 5 of 8 shooting from the field.

Prediction: Okay BetOnline college basketball betting brethren, I’m not going to waste anyone’s time with a long-winded NCAA Basketball Odds pick on this matchup, in large part because I’m really convinced the Butler Bulldogs are going to pull off the ‘impossible’ and beat UConn to cover the NCAA Basketball Odds tonight.

The Bulldogs knocked off the most impressive team in the entire NCAA Tournament in beating VCU the last time out and I believe their, cerebral, team-style of play will help them to beat a well-coached UConn ballclub that takes advantage of nearly all of their opponents’ miscues.

I think UConn was very fortunate to face an athletically-gifted, but not-too-bright Kentucky team that played their Final Four matchup like a bunch of me-first gunners that couldn’t shoot straight.

The Huskies held the undisciplined Wildcats to a dismal 33.9 percent shooting mark from the field that included a pitiful 33.3 percent from downtown (9-for-27).

First and foremost, I love the fact that the Bulldogs have a superstar player in junior shooting guard Shelvin Mack that can counter the production that UConn needs – and gets from their superstar floor leader, Kemba Walker.

I also think the Bulldogs have the edge in the frontcourt with senior forward Matt Howard being the best forward for either team in this contest.

Two more things about tonight’s college basketball betting matchup also stand out in my mind and that would be the fact that Butler has an outstanding perimeter defender that has harassed some of the best point guard in the country in outspoken junior point guard Ronald Nored.

Nored doesn’t score much, but he averages almost four rebounds per game and 1.1 steals per contest and plays absolutely dogged defense on whomever he’s guarding.

Last but not least, while UConn’s Jim Calhoun clearly had a huge coaching advantage over Kentucky’s John Calipari in the Final Four, the venerable head coach won’t enjoy such an advantage tonight against Butler’s Brad Stevens, arguably the best college basketball coach in the nation today.

Both ballclubs have recorded some stellar ATS statistics against their respective NCAA Basketball Odds this season, but I’m backing the Butler Bulldogs to pull off the outright upset against a UConn Huskies team that has gone just 6-15 against the college basketball betting odds in their last 21 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

NCAA Basketball Odds Pick: Butler Bulldogs +3 Points

NCAA Betting Butler vs. Connecticut the Ultimate Pick

After getting oh so so close last year, the Butler Bulldogs will try to make it happen when they take on the three-point favorite in NCAA Betting odds, the Connecticut Huskies, this Monday night at 9:23 PM ET, at Reliant Stadium, in the tourney’s big final.

NCAA Betting Lines:

Butler Bulldogs +3
Connecticut Huskies -3
O/U 128.5

I know what you are thinking: to watch Butler make the finals in two consecutive years is ludicrous, especially considering they are a small school that upset everybody two years in a row.

The Bulldogs are on a 14-game winning streak that began on Feb. 3 after losing three in a row. They weren’t even favorites to makes the elite eight and here we have them as part of the final once again. It doesn’t make any sense.

In this type of game experience is not overrated. There are not many teams that go to the finals in back-to-back years, and that will definitely be an advantage for Butler, especially in the first minutes of the game when the adrenaline is at the top.

The Bulldogs also know their success will lean on how well they can stop Kemba Walker, an overachieving Uconn junior guard who has lifted his team over his shoulders averaging 25.1 points per game during the tourney.

Keep in mind Walker averages 19 points over the past two games and Uconn was really close to getting slammed out of the competition. Of course the Huskies’ defense is another big reason why they are here.

One thing sports betting fans should consider is that the against the spread record won’t do any good here because both teams have really good stats. For example, the record on a neutral court is impressive for both with Butler standing at 10-0 ATS and Connecticut at 12-1 ATS.

One betting trend you really need to pay attention to is that UConn is 0-3 ATS after scoring 60 points or less.

Here are some other trends you might want to consider:

BUTLER is:

5-1 ATS when the total is 120 to 129.5

8-1 ATS as an underdog

11-3 ATS after a non-conference game

10-0 ATS in all tournament games

18-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record

UCONN is:

12-1 ATS in all neutral court games

8-2 ATS after a non-conference game

12-1 ATS in all tournament games

Simmons’ pick: Take Butler with the points, the game is going to be a close one, perhaps with a last second shot.

Final Four Predictions 2011 – A Handful of Thoughts Heading Into the Weekend

When it comes to the Final Four Predictions 2011, by now, you probably know all the obvious storylines. Can VCU or Butler continue their surprising run? Can John Calipari stay out of trouble with the NCAA? Will Kemba Walker be a one-man wrecking crew?

But here are some additional thoughts, ones that few are talking about…

Can Jim Calhoun Continue His Coaching Legacy: By now you know that while it’s been a wild ride for UConn fans on the court this season, off the court it’s been tough sledding. NCAA sanctions hit the program hard this year, and the school will lose scholarships and recruiting privileges going forward.

Still, Calhoun can somehow pull out two more wins and another National Championship, he will instantaneously be vaulted into the discussion as one of the greatest coaches ever. Calhoun is already considered elite, but getting another National Championship would make him just the second coach since John Wooden retired to get three total titles, with the other being Coach K at Duke. He’d pass Roy Williams of North Carolina and Billy Donovan of Florida, as the only other active coaches with two.

There’s a lot more on the line in the Final Four Predictions 2011 than just wins and losses. Calhoun’s legacy is on the line.

Can John Calipari Win With Freshmen: It’s the question that’s been posed since Day 1 of Calipari’s arrival in Lexington: Can you win with mostly young players?

The cynics will point to last year’s Wildcats team, led by four freshmen and a junior that got tripped up in the Elite Eight. They said that with so many young players, it’d show in the tournament, and in 2010 they were right, as Kentucky fell to a more experienced, if not more talented West Virginia squad.

Well with three freshmen in their six man rotation this season, no storyline is more interesting in the Final Four Predictions 2011 than whether the Wildcats can take home a title with so many young players. Calipari is notorious for saying, “Give me the best players, and I’ll figure out the rest.” So far, so good. It’s gotten him to the brink of a national title.

Shaka’s Last Stand: Finally, staying with coaches, we’ve got to talk about VCU’s Shaka Smart. Because right now the most talked about story in college hoops is whether or not this is the last weekend that Smart is VCU’s coach?

Now obviously Smart won’t be going anywhere unless he wants to, but many VCU fans are wondering if one of the “bigger,” schools will come calling with an open checkbook after the Rams tournament runm. The two most feasible landing spots are Missouri and NC State, both which have head coaching openings, and both which are willing to pony up whatever dough it takes to bring Shaka to town.

Will it happen? Who knows. But it’s something to keep in mind when evaluating your Final Four Predictions 2011.

NCAA Predictions – Cash in on Butler Bulldogs Mad Props Picks as ‘Mack and Howard Show’ Take Center Stage

If you like the Butler Bulldogs (who doesn’t these days?) and their fantastic two-man tag-team combination of shooting guard Shelvin Mack and power forward Matt Howard, then you’re going to absolutely love my ‘mad props picks’ NCAA predictions on a handful of Bulldogs’ most intriguing NCAA Basketball Tournament props odds.

The Bulldogs will take to the court at Reliant Stadium in Houston for their highly-anticipated NCAA Basketball Tournament championship showdown against Kemba Walker and the UConn Huskies at 9:20 PM ET tonight.

No. 8 Butler at No. 3 Connecticut 9:20 PM ET

Live from Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX

TV: CBS

With tonight’s tip-off just hours away, I have picked out some my favorite props odds on the board for tonight’s contest and will offer up my analysis and expert handicapping NCAA predictions in no time at all.

Okay BetOnline collegiate roundball bettors, let’s rock and roll!

Matt Howard Total Points

Over 15½ Points -125

Under 15½ Points -105

Analysis: Underrated do-it-all forward Matt Howard has scored Over this Total in three of five NCAA Tournament games, including the last time out in outing up 17 points on VCU. The 6-8 senior has averaged 16.7 points per game this season and I just can’t see him not topping this O/U Total in the biggest game of his career!

NCAA Predictions: Over 15½ Points

Matt Howard Total Rebounds

Over 7½ Rebounds -115

Under 7½ Rebounds -115

Analysis: Howard isn’t the best rebounder around and averaged just 7.8 boards per game this season. While he’s definitely capable of getting eight rebounds, I think the more athletic Huskies frontcourt players stop him from doing so tonight.

NCAA Predictions: Under 7½ Rebounds

Shelvin Mack Total Points

Over 17 Points -125

Under Points -105

Analysis: While it’s possible that the steady-as-a-rock Shelvin Mack could be held under this O/U Total tonight, I don’t see that happening at all as the 6-3 senior has really elevated his game during the course of the NCAA Tournament. Mack has averaged a stellar 21.8 points per game in five tourney contests and has scored at least 24 points in each of his last two games. My NCAA predictions says Mack goes Over his O/U Total here, no diggity, no doubt!

NCAA Predictions: Over 17 Points

Andrew Smith Total Points

Over 7½ Points +105

Under 7½ Points -135

Analysis: Laugh if you want, but I believe Andrew Smith needs to have a decent game at the very least if the Bulldogs are going to hold their own in the frontcourt. However, I think it’s more important for Smith to hit the glass than score the ball, so I’m going with the Under here for my NCAA predictions pick on the mostly non-scoring Smith.

NCAA Predictions: Under 7½ Points

Shawn Vanzant Total Points

Over 8½ Points -105

Under 8½ Points -125

Analysis: You know what BetOnline college basketball betting enthusiasts?  Senior point guard Shawn Vanzant is pretty damned good! The more I watch the heady floor leader of the Bulldogs, the more I’ve been impressed with his play. Vanzant has topped this point total in two of his last three games and I believe he goes Over again tonight as the Huskies pay a bit too much attention to Shelvin Mack!

NCAA Predictions: Over 8½ Points

Winning Margin

Analysis: I like ‘The Butler’ to win by 4-6 Points and cash in against the value-packed +500 props odds here. The Bulldogs are battle-tested, well-coached and have a pair of star players that know how to get the job done!

NCAA Predictions: Butler by 4-6 Points

Final 4 Picks – VCU Rams vs. Butler Bulldogs Trends to Watch

Making Final 4 picks in the duel between the VCU Rams and Butler Bulldogs could be tough, but we have all of the college basketball trends necessary to sort your way through these two teams.

The reason that these Final 4 picks are going to be so difficult is because there has never been a duel in the National Semifinals quite like this. Not only has an eight seed never taken on an eleven seed in the dance, but nothing like this has ever happened in the Final Four.

This is the first time that a No. 8 has played a seed anything higher than another No. 8 in the Final Four, and it is just the second time since the tourney expanded to 64 teams that there are two seeds in the same Final Four game that are worse than No. 5 seeds.

VCU has absolutely pulled off the impossible to make it here for the chance to make for successful Final 4 picks. The Rams navigated an extra game in the First Four, and they have blown through five straight foes. They were dogs in all five games, and had they won the Colonial Athletic Association Championship Game, they actually would have had seven straight wins as pups, something that you just don’t ever see in sports in general.

However, it’s hard to argue with what Butler has been able to pull off of late as well. Since it entered the postseason, it has been totally flawless. It beat both the Cleveland State Vikings and Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers as short favorites in de facto road games, and it has stormed into the dance with four straight covers and outright wins as underdogs as well.

Needless to say, the Final 4 picks for trends in this one are all going to be amazing for both the CAA reps and the Horizon League champs.

The Rams have covered nine straight NCAA Tournament games dating back to the days of Eric Maynor being in the program, and in all nine, they were underdogs. VCU has covered six straight games played out of conference dating back to BracketBusters, and it is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as dogs of 6.5 points or fewer.

For Butler, it is now 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games played in the dance, including making for successful Final 4 picks last year in the semifinals and in the National Championship Game. The Dogs are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 played on neutral courts, but Head Coach Brad Stevens has some very, very impressive marks as well against rock solid teams.

The Bulldogs are 21-4-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage great than .600, and they are 21-5-2 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record.

This set of Final 4 Picks between Butler and VCU will be the first time these teams have met in their programs’ histories.

NCAA Tournament Finals Pick – Butler Hoping For Different Ending This Time

This should seem like familiar and somewhat expected territory for the Butler Bulldogs, who have busted through in to the NCAA Tournament Finals after outlasting the VCU Rams.  Unlike last year, however, Butler will be facing a team that is almost entirely opposite to what Duke was last year. These UConn Huskies are smaller, faster and shallow in talent. That hasn’t stopped them from running absolutely wild.

Led by Kemba Walker, the Huskies survived any late push from the Kentucky Wildcats in a tight 56-55 win, which is misleading because of a last second three pointer by Kentucky that didn’t really mean anything. Walker had 18 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds in a statement game to the committee that voted Jimmer as the AP Player of the Year.

When the Huskies needed Walker, he came up big. And when Walker needed Jeremy Lamb, the freshman running mate was up for the challenge. Lamb hit 5-for-8 from the field adding 12 points and 9 board of his own, reminding everyone betting on UConn in the NCAA Tournament Finals that this team is more than a one man band.

Lamb’s maturation has been nothing short of perfect in its timing. Walker seemed almost completely gassed at the end of the game, unable to get open and showing drive and energy only when he managed to get the ball in his hands. You have to hope that Walker has his energy back for this game because Butler is going to work him to the bone.

#8 Butler Bulldogs vs. #1 UConn Huskies
Monday, April 4 — Reliant Stadium — 9:23pm EST
NCAA Tournament Finals Odds: UConn -3.0 (129.0)

The Butler Bulldogs were somewhat fortunate to get in to the NCAA Tournament Finals this year, and in their game against VCU it just seemed like the Rams couldn’t get a shot to go down. Butler held the surging Rams to just 39.7 percent shooting from the field, but also managed just 35.6 percent from their own offense.

The main difference in that game is the main difference in this game – Matt Howard. The Indiana native’s deft touch at the charity stripe kept Butler ahead when it mattered. He ended the Final Four game with 11-of-12 from the free throw line, which added to his 17 points and 8 rebounds.

Howard needs to be the difference in this game and hope that Shelvin Mack continues his sheer brilliance. Mack scored 24 points against VCU and also chipped in 6 rebounds. He will be counted on as the counter to Kemba Walker which is a feat that nobody has measured up to. Not Brandon Knight. Not Derrick Williams. All the stars have run out gas in front of Walker’s sudden scoring supernova.

From a betting standpoint, Butler and UConn share very similar numbers. Butler is a stiff 14-0 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games, which goes back to early February. They’ve been that good for that long.

However, UConn’s 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS record over their past 10 games have all been in tournament style games. They outlasted what seemed like a “bigger” team from Louisville in the Big East Tournament finals. What’s to say that they aren’t ready to light up Butler in the NCAA Tournament Finals as well?

This matchup doesn’t come down to a showdown between Mack and Walker because both studs are going to get theirs. This is in fact a game that’s either going to be decided by Matt Howard having his way with Alex Oriakhi and the Huskies’ front court, or Jeremy Lamb going in to that assassin mode he found at the end of the game against Kentucky.

I am scared that Butler’s depth in the backcourt isn’t going to be enough. Chase Stigall is pretty useless overall. Shawn Vanzant has nice length, and while Ronald Nored is the one that Butler wants on the floor, he’s too foul prone.  The idea of any of them trying to help Mack stop the explosive duo of Jeremy Lamb and Kemba Walker is laughable.

Pressure is a funny thing to consider in this game. UConn is the favorite, and the higher seed, but the weight of the world has to be on Butler. It just has to. You can’t justify two trips to the NCAA Tournament Finals and lose both times. It doesn’t matter if you come from a non mid-major. It doesn’t matter if your two best players over the last two years have both been white.

On a personal note, I have to finally decide whether or not it’s the Year of the Superstar or the Year of the Underdog. A vote for the former is a bet on UConn and Kemba. Obviously siding with the latter means that Butler should get the nod. The problem with that is that if it was the Underdog’s year, shouldn’t VCU have pushed its way in to the NCAA Tournament Finals? I hate being superstitious. This is what happens when you gamble too much.

There were signs that Walker may be running out of steam, but I just can’t leverage a bet against him anymore. He has faced some ridiculous competition thus far, and Butler doesn’t exactly play great defense. What’s misleading about VCU’s low shooting percentage in that game is that they’re actually a very bad shooting team. They were getting the looks and most shots were banking off the inside of the rim.

Leave those shots open against UConn’s Lamb and Walker and you’re going to pay. There is a big chunk of my inner demon that thinks the inside-outside combo of Howard and Mack should make Butler the pick. That’s the “logical choice” for this game. Unfortunately, March Madness has been anything but logical. We’re talking about a third and eighth seed in the championship game here.

This is Kemba Walker’s year, and with a guy like Jeremy Lamb by his side, there’s no way I can go against the UConn Huskies in what’s essentially a perfect matchup for them in the NCAA Tournament Finals. I expect this game to be the perfect end to a great March Madness Tournament.

Oh, and if you happen to have UConn-Butler as your bracket busting tournament finals then…I hate you.

NCAA Tournament Finals Pick – UConn -3.0 (OVER)

College Basketball Betting – NCAA Championship Game

A wild month of college basketball betting wraps up when the No. 8 Butler Bulldogs meet the No. 3 Connecticut Huskies for the national title in Houston on Monday night.

Oddsmakers opened the college basketball pointspreads with the Huskies as 3.5-point favorites in the championship game, following their thrilling 56-55 win over the Kentucky Wildcats as 2-point underdogs Saturday night.

Connecticut kept its composure after giving up a 10-point halftime lead to start the final 20 minutes. The Wildcats got hot from beyond the arc, but the Huskies toughened up on defense, shutting out UK for more than five minutes in the second half while converting turnovers and long rebounds into quick transition buckets.

Junior guard Kemba Walker controlled the tempo, scoring a game-high 18 points while dishing out seven assists and grabbing six rebounds. Walker, who is averaging 25 points per game in the tournament, has willed UConn to the title game and has been the biggest star in college basketball since the Huskies’ five-wins-in-five-days run in the Big East Tournament.

He’ll be the focus of Brad Stevens’ squad Monday night. Stevens has Butler in the national title game for the second straight season, knocking off the Cinderella VCU Rams 70-62 as a 3.5-point favorite Saturday.

The Bulldogs were able to slow down the frantic pace of the Rams and break their intense full-court pressure, winning the battle on the boards while also hitting huge 3-point shots down the stretch to put the lead out of reach. On defense, Butler forced VCU to put the ball on the floor and collapsed on would-be layups in the paint.

The Bulldogs’ two best players stepped up, with senior guard Shelvin Mack scoring 24 points, including five 3-point buckets, and senior forward Matt Howard added 17 points and eight rebounds – four of which were on the offensive glass. Fellow senior Shawn Vanzant had his best game of the NCAA, scoring 11 points to help put Butler back in the title game.

Monday’s contest will go to the team which can impose its pace on the other. Connecticut thrives on transition, looking to push the basketball off steals and rebounds. Walker is the catalyst of the offense, looking to drive to the hoop for layups or draw in defenders for open kickouts or dishes to one of UConn’s athletic forwards.

The Huskies managed to knock down just one 3-pointer versus Kentucky, finishing the game 1 for 12 from beyond the arc. Butler must reverse their game plan against VCU when facing the Huskies, closing up the lane and forcing UConn to beat them from the perimeter. Both Walker and guard Shabazz Napier like to dribble drive, and freshman guard Jeremy Lamb has proved that he’s a mid-range threat.

However, none of those players have shown a consistent stroke from 3-point range, especially Walker who is just 11 for 34 from outside in the NCAA and an ugly 2 for 12 in the last two games. As a team, Connecticut is shooting only 34 percent from 3-point land in the tournament.

Butler isn’t shooting any better from beyond the arc this March. As a team, it is hitting just 32 percent from 3-point range in the tournament, but that hasn’t stopped it from tossing up 127 attempts from outside. The Bulldogs are confident in taking so many 3-pointers knowing that there’s a good chance they’ll get the rebound if they miss.

Butler has out-rebounded all but one opponent en route to the national title game, and almost 35 percent of those boards have come on the offensive glass. The Bulldogs, despite the lack of any overwhelming size outside of Howard (6-foot-8) and Andrew Smith (6-foot-11), have been the definition of scrappy around the rim. In the Final Four game versus VCU, Butler outscored their opponent 19-6 on second-chance baskets.

Connecticut has the size and athleticism to keep Howard and Co. off the boards. The Huskies have a bigger frontcourt, with the likes of Alex Oriakhi, Tyler Olander and 7-footer Charles Okwandu boxing out. The Huskies out-rebounded the Wildcats but have allowed their last three opponents to reach double figures on the offensive boards. Connecticut can ill-afford to give Butler second and third looks at the basket on Monday night.

The total for Monday’s title game opened at 129 points but has dropped to 128 since post. The Huskies are 1-4 over/under in the NCAA while the Bulldogs boast a 3-2 over/under record in the tournament.

NCAA Betting Butler vs. Connecticut the Ultimate Pick

After getting oh so so close last year, the Butler Bulldogs will try to make it happen when they take on the three-point favorite in NCAA Betting odds, the Connecticut Huskies, this Monday night at 9:23 PM ET, at Reliant Stadium, in the tourney’s big final.

NCAA Betting Lines:

Butler Bulldogs +3
Connecticut Huskies -3
O/U 128.5

I know what you are thinking: to watch Butler make the finals in two consecutive years is ludicrous, especially considering they are a small school that upset everybody two years in a row.

The Bulldogs are on a 14-game winning streak that began on Feb. 3 after losing three in a row. They weren’t even favorites to makes the elite eight and here we have them as part of the final once again. It doesn’t make any sense.

In this type of game experience is not overrated. There are not many teams that go to the finals in back-to-back years, and that will definitely be an advantage for Butler, especially in the first minutes of the game when the adrenaline is at the top.

The Bulldogs also know their success will lean on how well they can stop Kemba Walker, an overachieving Uconn junior guard who has lifted his team over his shoulders averaging 25.1 points per game during the tourney.

Keep in mind Walker averages 19 points over the past two games and Uconn was really close to getting slammed out of the competition. Of course the Huskies’ defense is another big reason why they are here.

One thing sports betting fans should consider is that the against the spread record won’t do any good here because both teams have really good stats. For example, the record on a neutral court is impressive for both with Butler standing at 10-0 ATS and Connecticut at 12-1 ATS.

One betting trend you really need to pay attention to is that UConn is 0-3 ATS after scoring 60 points or less.

Here are some other trends you might want to consider:

BUTLER is:

5-1 ATS when the total is 120 to 129.5

8-1 ATS as an underdog

11-3 ATS after a non-conference game

10-0 ATS in all tournament games

18-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record

UCONN is:

12-1 ATS in all neutral court games

8-2 ATS after a non-conference game

12-1 ATS in all tournament games

Simmons’ pick: Take Butler with the points, the game is going to be a close one, perhaps with a last second shot.

Final 4 Odds – Connecticut Huskies Players To Watch

The Connecticut Huskies, on paper, look like a one man show with Kemba Walker doing just about everything possible. However, Head Coach Jim Calhoun has a halfway decent team around him as well, and though these men wouldn’t be able to win the NCAA Tournament without Walker, Walker wouldn’t be able to win it without them either. These are the men crucial for beating the Final 4 odds for the Huskies.

Of course, we do still have to start with the amazing Walker, one of the most dynamic players in this tournament. Save Jimmer Fredette of the BYU Cougars, there isn’t a man that could have put his team on his back and just carried it to victory like Walker did against the San Diego State Aztecs. Walker took a modest deficit and turned it into a modest lead all by himself, as he went on a 14-1 run against the entire team for the Mountain West champs.

Just looking at his averages show just show strong of a player Walker really is. He has put up 23.9 points, 5.3 boards, 4.5 assists, and 1.9 steals per game, and all of that has come with him averaging just over two turnovers per game, a fantastic mark for a man that handles the ball as much as he does. That 20 points he put up against the Arizona Wildcats almost seems tame, especially since he had led this team to the point of the Final 4 odds by putting up three games of 33+ points since the semifinals of the Big East Tournament against the Syracuse Orange.

However, the man that has really come on strong over the course of these last few weeks has been Jeremy Lamb. Lamb was averaging under double digits per game when the Big East Tourney got underway at Madison Square Garden, and all of a sudden, he came alive. Lamb has scored at least 11 points in nine straight, and he has five games with at least 16 points in that stretch. He scored a total of 43 point in Anaheim in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 combined, and he is sure to be a focal point for those betting on the Final 4 odds with UConn.

Coach Calhoun knows that Alex Oriakhi really needs to be big as well. Oriakhi can be a monster in the post, and he has had some great games against some great teams. For example, he put up 11 points and 21 boards against the Texas Longhorns on the road, and he had 18 points and 11 rebounds against these Kentucky Wildcats in the Maui Invitational as well.

However, the big man has really fallen off at times, and though he was once averaging a double-double per game, he hasn’t even had a double-double yet in this tournament. The 6.3 points per game that he has scored thus far in March Madness isn’t going to cut it to beat the Final 4 odds, and he is going to be one of the biggest keys of the game against the UK bigs.

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