New England Super Sunday Betting Preview

New England Season In Review and Super Sunday Betting Preview

New England entered the season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.  In fact, at one point, New England was the favorite to take home the silver trophy as the 5 to 2 fave.

Although New England was the favorite to win the whole enchilada, they didn’t exactly pad football handicappers’ bankrolls when it came to betting against the spread this season.  A 13 and 3 record, which New England secured, didn’t translate to ATS covers in the sportsbook.  New England went 9 and 7 ATS overall.  That shouldn’t inspire confidence in those looking to back New England versus New York in this Super Sunday Pro Football Betting Event, but behind every team’s betting record, there’s a story to be told.

 Against the Spread

Before writing off the Patriots, and taking the 3 points on the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, football handicappers need to examine that less than stellar 9 and 7 ATS record.  The record simply isn’t as uninspiring as the number suggests.  Sure, going 13 and 3 straight up, but only 9 and 7 when it comes to the spread may be disappointing, but there’s a glaring reason for it.

When it comes to football betting, no other team had to give up more points this past regular season than the New England Patriots.  If you wanted to back the Pats, you had to lay a ton of points to do it almost each and every week.  The odds makers had a serious bead on the Pats this season and it showed up in the betting lines.

Home Record ATS:  4-4

It almost goes without saying that the New England Patriots were favored in each and every one of their home games.  The least amount of points that New England had to cover was in Week 2 against San Diego when the Patriots stepped onto the field as a – 6.5 point fave versus the Chargers. 

New England also faced the largest spread of any NFL team this season in a home game versus the Indianapolis Colts on Dec. 4.  Without Peyton Manning, the odds makers assumed that Tom Brady and the Pats would waltz all over the Colts’ ridiculous 26th ranked D and expand the points sucking black hole that was Indy’s 30th ranked total yards offense.  That didn’t happen.  New England didn’t cover the spread in the yearly Patriots vs Indianapolis battle.  Check out all four of the Patriots’ non-covers during the regular season. 

Versus Dallas as a -6.5 point favorite in a 20 to 16 victory

Versus the New York Giants as a -9 point favorite in a 20 to 24 loss

Versus Indianapolis as a -20.5 point favorite in a 31 to 24 victory

Versus Miami as a -9 point favorite in a 27 to 24 victory   

A closer look at each one of the ATS losses reveals that the Patriots are probably a better team, at least when it comes to the 3 points that they face this Sunday versus the New York Giants, then the 9 and 7 regular season ATS record might indicate.

New England faced Dallas in Week 6, when they were still the Cowboys and not the Cowpokes.  Dallas sat on a 2 and 2 straight up record and was coming off of a bye.  The Pats had just come off of an emotional 31 to 21 victory over the Jets.  Things were looking up in Big D and New England was trying to get it together to face an NFC team after putting a sock into Rex Ryan’s giant mug.

It’s difficult to come up with a reason for New England’s against the spread loss to the G-Men on Nov. 6.  Not only did Brady and Co. not come up with a good enough game to cover the ridiculous 9 point spread, but Eli and the G-Men beat them straight up 24 to 20.  Mr. Budchen produced his worse QB rating of the season in the game, a 75.4.  Football bettors should put the NYG loss into the experience column.

20.5 points to an NFL team?  That’s insane, ridiculous, just plain stupid/  Even though most football handicappers wouldn’t lay 20.5 points in a dream world where the Colts showed up with only 8-players ala Miami Arizona’s High School squad, New England had the victory ATS in that game until the 4th quarter where the Colts outscored them 21 to zip.

There’s a moment for every NFL team when it comes to beating the spread in every season.  For Miami, that moment occurred on Oct. 30 when they lost to the New York Giants 17 to 20 as a 9 point dog.  The Fins had gone 0-5-1 ATS in their previous 6 games.  The victory against the spread versus the Giants on Oct. 30 led to a 9 and 1 ATS regular season finish for Miami.  Why is this important to note?  Because the Patriots played the Fins on Dec. 24 at home, towards the end of Miami’s awesome covering spread streak.

Away Record ATS:  5-3

New England’s against the spread record on the road during the regular season can be attributed to the fact that the Patriots faced somewhat lower spreads in their away games than they did in their home games. 

When it comes to the NFL, odds makers automatically assign -3 points to the home team.  For instance, when the New Orleans Saints took on the horrible Colts in the Superdome on Oct. 23, they went into the game, before the odds makers set any sort of betting line against the spread, as a -3 point favorite.  The line ended up at -13.5 meaning that the odds makers felt that the Saints were 10.5 points better than the Colts at a neutral site.  At home, the Saints were 13.5 points better than Indy.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Patriots’ three road losses against the spread this season.

Versus Buffalo as a -7 point favorite in a 31 to 34 loss

Versus Pittsburgh as a -3 point favorite in a 17 to 25 loss

Versus Washington as a -7.5 point favorite in a 34 to 27 victory

The Buffalo loss occurred in Week 3.  There’s no doubt that this is a legitimate loss both straight up and against the spread for the Patriots, but there are a couple of key things regarding this game that football handicappers should notice.  First, although Pats’ TE Rob Gronkowski had scored a touchdown in New England’s two previous games, the loss to Buffalo was Gronk’s coming out party.  The huge tight-end (and Arizona alum, my alma mater) grabbed 7 passes for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Since TE Aaron Hernandez, who tore it up in Week’s 1 and 2, didn’t have a catch versus Buffalo, it’s obvious that New England was trying something new with Gronk, length downfield instead of just touchdowns, ala Hernandez, and trying something new with Giant Gronk may have caused some hiccups in the offense.

Not only that, but Buffalo’s three-headed monster, that later on turned into a three-headed tortoise, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Stevie Johnson, and RB Fred Jackson, were at the top of their games versus the Pats.  Fitz had thrown 7 touchdowns to only 1 pick going into the matchup.  Johnson had already caught 12 passes and 2 touchdowns, and Jackson had already rushed for 229 yards and 2 TDs.

By the time the Patriots faced the Steelers on Oct. 30, Big Ben had gotten into an awesome groove.  The QB had thrown 9 touchdowns to only 1 pick in his last three starts.  Was there any doubt that he was going to have success against the Patriots’ 31st ranked pass defense?  Ben shredded New England for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns, but Ben also threw a pick in the game and went 36 out of 50 meaning that he missed on 14 passes.  It shows that even though New England’s D is terrible when it comes to defending against the pass, coach Bill Belichick can scheme very, well given time, and if he faces an opponent he is familiar with.

Is there a reason for the non-cover versus the hapless Washington Redskins in Week 14?  Yes.  I put money on this game when the line first opened at New England -7 points, thereby securing a push, instead of putting money on it when the line drifted to 7.5.  This game shouldn’t even be on the loss list in my opinion.

Key Stat Against the Spread – - Because the Patriots had to cover big time numbers to win in the sportsbook, and because the D was horrific for most of the season, yielding an average of 411.1 yards per game, the key stat regarding whether or not the New England Patriots will beat the spread on Sunday rests with QB Tom Brady. 

The offense ran through Brady as the Patriots’ averaged 318 out of their 428 total yards per game average through the air.  The Patriots’ ATS records during the regular season along with El Guapo’s QB ratings are below.  I’ve highlighted what I feel are the key QB ratings.

Week 1:  121.6 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 2:  135.7 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 3:  86.1 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 4:  100.1 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 5:  100.7 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 6:  82.3 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 7:  Bye
Week 8:  101.8 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 9:  75.4 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 10:  118.4 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 11:  119.2 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 12:  134.6 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 13:  114.9 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 14:  107.6 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 15:  117.3 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 16:  85.8 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 17:  113.7 QB rating, Win ATS

Only three times did a QB rating of 100 or more from Brady not lead to a victory against the spread.  The spread in those games were:  -3 on the road vs Pitt in Week 8, -20.5 vs Indianapolis at home in Week 14, and -7.5 vs Washington on the road in Week 14.  I’ve already explained what happened in Pittsburgh, how the Patriots had the spread covered before the 4th quarter versus Indianapolis, and why the Washington game shouldn’t be in the against the spread loss column.

It’s obvious to this football handicapper that if Mr. Handsome, as my editor Mike calls him, is on his way to a 100 QB rating or higher on Sunday, the New England Patriots will be on their way to a cover against the spread.  In contrast, based on the QB ratings above, if Tommy Boy is on his way to a QB rating of less than 100 against the G-Men in Super Bowl XLVI, then the New England Patriots will not only be on their way to a loss ATS but also to a straight up loss.

Over/Under Total Record:  11-5

An 11 and 5 over the total record makes for a strong stat, but there are caveats.  Don’t go blindly jumping all over…uh, the over…just because of the Patriots total record and their horrific D.

Yes, there is a chance that Eli Manning absolutely punishes the Patriots’ pass defense.  After all, New England’s defensive backfield of Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Patrick Chung and James Ihedigbo, won’t remind anybody of Ty Law, Tyrone Poole, Rodney Harrison, and Eugene Wilson, the Patriots’ Super Bowl XXXVIII championship winning defensive backfield.  But this year’s New England Patriots’ pass defense has already controlled Eli Manning.  In the Giants’ Week 9 victory over the Patriots, Eli went 20 out of 30 for only 250 yards, 2 touchdowns and a pick.  Baby Manning produced a 77.9 QB rating.

Mr. Budchen produced a 75.4 QB rating against the Giants’ excellent defensive backfield of Corey Webster, Aaron Ross, Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle.  The G-Men actually held Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay’s gunslinger, to a 78.5 QB rating on a 26 out of 46 night in the playoffs.  It’s shows that Webster, Ross, Phillips and Rolle might make up, arguably, the best defensive backfield in the NFL. 

The over is not a “sure thing” in this Sunday’s Super Bowl, and if anybody tells you that it is, then they haven’t done their homework.

Final Thoughts:  Over/Under Total

The total on the Super Bowl has dropped from a starting line of 55 to 53.  That’s actually the key stat regarding the total in the Super Bowl.  Total betting is different than against the spread bettering because total betting requires the participation of both teams on a big level.

If you’re betting over the total, you’re counting on both defenses to take a backseat to both offenses in a game.  I’m finding that hard to do in the Super Bowl considering what New England’s D did to Eli earlier this season and what the Giants’ D did to Tom Brady earlier this season.  Also, what football bettors isn’t impressed by what the G-Men’s D did to Atlanta’s QB Matt Ryan, Rodgers, and San Francisco’s QB Alex Smith in the playoffs?

The fact that the total has dropped from 55 to 53 tells me one thing:  the total is trending towards under.  In order to go against this obvious trend, football handicappers must make a case for both Eli Manning and Tom Brady having extremely hot days on Sunday.  That’s hard to do.

Final Thoughts:  Against the Spread

If you feel that the betting line is fair, and I certainly do since the Patriots are only a -3 point favorite, the team to back against the spread in this game will come down to answering the following questions:

Do you believe that Patriots’ QB Tom Brady will be able to utilize WR Wes Welker and tight-ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Grownkowski?  Also, who will be the 4th target? – - Gronk is walking around without a boot.  That’s good, but is it enough?  Brady has to secure a 100+ QB rating in this game.  That means he will need all three of his best pass catchers, along with a mystery fourth guy (Ochocinco?  Deion Branch?  Who?) suited up and ready to go because the Webster/Ross/Phillips/Rolle Quatrain has been spectacular in the playoffs.

Will Bill Belichick’s game scheming counter the hot hand of Eli Manning? – - Belichick proved, against a hot Ben Roethlisberger in a game the Patriots almost won, that if he knows a QB’s weaknesses, then he can find a way to protect his horrible cornerbacks and safeties.  Also, Belichick gets a healthy Jerrod Mayo for the Super Bowl and Mayo didn’t play the first time these two teams met meaning that Bill can put even more pressure than usual on Baby Manning.  On the flip side, Eli gets Hakeem Nicks, his best wide receiver, to suit up for this game and Nicks sat out the first game between these two.

Whose running game is going to breakout? – - A key for the Giants to winning this game straight up is actually their running game.  They have to keep the ball out of Tommy Boy’s hands and that means getting yards on the ground.  Of course, it also means that one of the keys to the Patriots’ success in this game is stopping the Giants’ rushing attack before putting a beat down on Manning.  Now, if the Patriots can get their rushing attack going, one that averaged 110.2 per game, and Mr. Handsome is on his way to a QB rating of 100+?  It’s game over, as the saying goes, for the Giants.  Patriots’ backers can cha-ching their way to the after hours party.

The biggest piece of advice when it comes to Super Bowl XLVI is this: concentrate on a few key stats, don’t force trends, pay attention to history but only to a point, and don’t, please don’t, bet with your heart.

Good luck with your Super Bowl XLVI wagers this Sunday!

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Oddsmakers Learning From History – Super Sunday By The Numbers

Historical Lessons of Super Sunday Betting

The big game is finally here and NFL fans could not ask for anything better than a rematch between New England and New York. While both teams used the media day to stifle all the hyperbole about their last meeting at Super Bowl XLII, everyone knows the truth. Both teams care about winning this game no matter what they say otherwise.

Nothing has reflected this more than the Super Bowl XLVI betting line itself. Back in 2008, the book makers edged the line at a hefty -14.0 for Belichik’s undefeated squad, which saw plenty of sportsbooks hemorrhage money faster than a Katherine Heigl movie. The line on that game dropped down dramatically because of the hordes of bettors siding with the dog, making the live game line -12.0 for New England. Of course, the sportsbooks lost out big time in that game.

This year, the line opened at -3.0 for the Patriots and (pun intended) it’s pretty much stayed pat since then. Most expect that line to come down closer to the Giants by game time, but for the most part the action has steadily come in on both sides. For those that understand betting lines, this is exactly what the oddsmakers want. In 2008, they were blindsided by underdog bets. This year, it’s balanced.

You can say that this is a good thing because everyone likes an honest line, but that makes the mega matchup between the Giants and the Patriots is even harder to call with a line like that. What does history tell us?

Super Bowl Betting By the Numbers

To reiterate how important it is that the Patriots are favored, all you have to do is break down the simple numbers. Trust me, I can barely put a sentence together let alone spell “algorithm”. The stuff below is just easy math.

Thirty-two teams that have been favored in the Super Bowl have gone on to win the past 45 games. That’s 71.1 percent. Pretty good odds there, no matter what you think about the matchup (which I’ll get to later in another piece).

The odds get even juicer if you want to take the Patriots because of those 32 teams, 24 have covered the spread as favorites in the Super Bowl. For those of you still without a calculator (and because I’m being paid to do the math for you), that’s a whopping 75 percent. Even better odds for betting New England.

If you look at the line when it is that shady and frustrating +/- 3.0, things get a little dicey, which might suggest you take the Giants. When the Super Bowl line is +/- 3.0 for either team, the underdog is 3-2 ATS. That’s not the most convincing winning percentage, nor is it a good enough sampling size to really hedge on.

Even worse, since 2000 the underdog has only won the Super Bowl 30 percent of the time. That would be the Bucs, Patriots (2002), Giants and Saints. I’d say those are terrible odds for the Giants but since they’re one of the teams that’s proven how good they are in the Super Bowl as dogs, I’d be less inclined to worry.

Overall the favorite has been a better play in the Super Bowl especially with tight odds. When it comes to single-digit odds in the Super Bowl, the favorite has gone 25-6 ATS in 31 games. Again, since the Patriots are inexplicably favored in this game, the odds as favorites are heavily on their side.

Let’s Talk About That 54.0 Point Total, Shall We?

As for the TOTAL, let’s just say that you should probably be betting the UNDER. The Giants averaged 27.0 points per game during the post season, which is up from their 24.6 points per game during the regular season. This team is not only peaking, they also boast weapons at every conceivable skill position including quarterback. Scary.

On the flip side, the Patriots averaged 34.0 points per game in their only two playoff games, which included blowing Denver out of Gillette Stadium. During the regular season they put up 32.1 points per game. They’ve pretty much been putting up points all year long.

What should you take from that bit of info? Not much. These teams are the best in the NFL right now and a big reason is because of offense. Even though Brady has less weapons, he’s still the greatest quarterback that this generation has ever produced and that’s saying something considering the level of competition he’s endured.

However, statistically the OVER has hit 21 out of 44 times (original Super Bowl did not have a total), which is just 48 percent. Even more intriguing is that the average TOTAL in the Super Bowl is just 41.7.

So what about games with hyper inflated TOTALS? Well the Super Bowl has had a TOTAL of 50+ points eight times in the past, and the UNDER has held five times. The only time that games with 50+ point totals have actually hit the mark in the OVER is when they’re blowouts. That’s the 1985 Niners who shellacked the Dolpins 38-16, the 1995 Niners who trounced the Chargers 49-26 and the Elway led Broncos running roughshod over the Falcons.

Just because we’re expecting truck loads of points doesn’t mean that both Coughlin and Belichik will unleash the dogs of hell on the field. Most teams play it tight to the chest, especially early, and you don’t want to be caught chasing a ballooned OVER. The UNDER is history’s play when it comes to the TOTAL, especially at 54.0 points.

The Public Betting Factor

As a common perception, gamblers like to believe that there’s a massive herd of idiots who roam around the betting pastures and mess up the line. The easiest game to point to is the Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl from 2009 where Pittsburgh was favored a preposterous -7.0 against Kurt Warner. The Steelers barely scratched out a 27-23 win, but the line was -7.0 to accommodate the massive public bet on the Steelers.

So the question here is pretty simple: Is New England that much more of a public team than New York?

I mean, we’re talking about the largest city in the country here. Sure, there are plenty of people who hopped on the Brady Bandwagon back in 2001 and stayed there, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that a lot of those pink hat wearing Massholes are actually laying money down.

The inside community of gamblers love to pretend that they’re smarter than the average bear, and not because it makes them feel good or because they’re elitist. They call themselves “degenerates” for goodness sake. But it allows them to account for certain market inflations. Are they for real?

Yes…just not in this game.

The New York Giants have a feverish backing and as much as people like to think that the Patriots are getting the nod as favorites because of their public team status, that’s simply not the case. Back in 2008 it was a matter of the Patriots being a superior team plus having massive public support in betting circles. This year they’re going up against a Giants team that is not only better, but also has a host of believers in tow.

Prop Bets Galore!

As I wrote last week, if you’re not prop-betting on the Super Bowl, then you’re just not gambling properly.

Everyone’s favorite prop bet is still a toss-up. That’s right, I’m punning you right in to the coin toss prop bet. Tails has a slight edge landing 23 out of 45 games so far, and percentage wise that doesn’t get any tighter because that’s a slim 51 percent winning percentage.

But wait! There’s more! For those of you that love watching roulette results, heads has landed three times in a row. It’s bound to come up tails, right? Tails is due!

As for my favorite money maker, I prefer to go with who will score the first points of the game. I went back and checked the last ten years of Super Bowls and here’s what I found: Wide-receivers opened scoring twice, and two others were by tight-end L.J. Smith and kick returner Devin Hester.

The other six opening points were scored by…a kicker! Right now you can get awesome odds on Lawrence Tynes having something to celebrate first at +300, or Gostkowski netting you a +350 on a field goal. Nobody likes kickers, especially Hank Azaria. But if you’re betting on the first score of the game, they’re your best play. C’mon. Six times out of ten! Everyone needs a kicker!

The Gatorade color bet is a complete wash (man I just can’t stop with the puns). Clear/water is one of the favorites at +160 along with yellow at the same odds. I don’t know. I never get this right. I’m sticking with a flier on water getting dumped even though it’ll probably be blue (the color predominantly shared by both teams) which is the long shot at +1200.

I’m moving on from this stupid bet before it reminds me how much money I’ve lost on Super Bowl prop bets. I’ve more than made up for that with fun times and betting on kickers.

History’s Lesson

Patriots and Giants is as good a matchup as you can get. There’s the drama of Bill and Tom chasing Bill and Joe for rings. There’s Peyton Manning and the decimated Colts watching as Peyton’s younger brother and biggest rival go toe-to-toe. It’s a repeat of the biggest upset in Super Bowl history.

If history has taught us anything, it’s that you can’t always expect the expected in the Super Bowl. New England knows this. New York takes nothing for granted. After the butt kicking the sportsbook took the last time these two teams met, even oddsmakers learned their lesson.

History makes dust and ghosts of us all. But in the moment you can be a hero, if you play the numbers right. A tight line is fitting for this game, but the Super Bowl averages and odds lean towards the Patriots even if the matchup doesn’t necessarily do the same. And as unsexy as taking an UNDER is, it’s your best bet along with tabbing a kicker to score the opening points.

How will you play Super Bowl XLVI in the sportsbook? You know the history. Now make your own.

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Does New England Deserve to be Favored?

Super Sunday Mega Preview

When Championship Weekend wrapped up two of the most exciting games of the season, I thought what most of the people around me thought: “Pick ‘em”. New England seemed vulnerable, especially after banking on a missed field-goal to book their ticket to Super Bowl XLV. New York seemed to be peaking, and just as good at every level if not a little bit better.

So when the betting line for this game opened at -3.0 in favor of New England, I was a little bit shocked. In hindsight, it seemed silly for neither team to be favored, but I was at least expecting a tight line of -1.0 or something like that. Don’t get me wrong. Three-points is not a lot, but it’s enough to infuriate betting crowds.

That is, of course, unless you’re betting on the New York Giants who have covered in all of their playoff games thus far. They held the Atlanta Falcons scoreless on offense as -2.0 favorites, then went on to shatter the souls of Green Bay and San Francisco as underdogs in both games. If you’ve loved them so far this season, then you’ll love them with a +3.0 point cushion in Super Bowl XLVI betting lines.

I’ve spent the better part of the past ten days trying to figure out how and why New England would be favored. On paper, New York is simply a better team. Better receivers. Better defensive front. At least a very even secondary with the atrociousness Belichick is relying on.

What am I missing?

Inevitably this led me to bashing my head against the wall about Tom Brady and Eli Manning. Tom attempted and completed more passes for more yards and more touchdowns than Eli, while being sacked four times less. He has three Super Bowl rings already. He’s Tom Freaking Brady.

Still, this year, I watched Eli Manning go from above average to elite all the while marveling at his pocket presence. Yeah, I just admitted I marveled at Eli.

Watch Eli in the pocket and it’s a spectacle that nobody appreciates. He is calm under pressure when the pocket is collapsing. He has a sixth sense for his blindside. It’s not the sexiest thing to admit, but watching Eli Manning play football was like watching Tim Duncan in his best years; just great fundamentals (with a goofy face to go along with it).

In the vortex of this particular season, the gap between Brady and Manning isn’t as astronomical as it is in the grand scheme of their careers. Even then, Brady has four years on Eli both in age and in seasons played (unless you don’t count the year he tore his ACL). There’s still time for Manning to bridge that gap even further, and that’s something I never thought I’d write.

Eli may not have what it takes to become a three or four time Super Bowl winner, or shatter the memory of Dan Marino’s records like the history devouring Tom Brady. But it’s still too early to tell. What I do know is that Manning is just as worthy of a bet in the playoffs as Brady is in 2012.

The numbers speak clearly. The Giants finished the season at just 8-7-1 ATS but what that record hided is that Manning and the Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games including the playoffs, where they’re perfect against the line. In fact, the Giants are a steady 6-1 SU and ATS in their last 7 games.

By now we know that Coughlin likes to pace his teams so that they (hopefully) peak at the right time, and the 2011 Giants are doing just that. It’s still mind boggling to me that they’re underdogs in this game especially with the balance that they have on both sides of the ball.

Neither team wants to revisit Super Bowl XLII, but something about that game stands out beyond the massive upset. That would be the Giants ability to get to Tom Brady. Michael Strahan is the only big name missing from that core group that harassed Brady in to mistake after mistake, and he’s been adequately replaced by the rotation they have built around Osi Umenyiora, who stands as a +7000 longshot for Super Bowl MVP. Listen, you never truly fill a void left by a Hall of Famer like Strahan, but with what New York has up front on defense, they’ll be just fine come Sunday.

I talked a little bit in another piece about “public betting”, and how the throngs of New England backers is balanced out by the immense crowds of fans that like to bet on the Giants. Sure, there are people that will say “Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Tom Brady” but this year is different.

Look at New England’s record for instance. The Patriots were 13-3 SU and 9-7 ATS this season. Coincidentally, the last game they lost was against the Giants in Week 9 where they were heavy favorites at -9.0, while being gutted 24-20 by the G-Men.

Since then they’re undefeated at 9-0 SU, but are just 6-3 ATS which would be fine if those wins against the spread hadn’t come against Denver (twice), Miami, the hapless Chiefs, and the imploding Jets and Eagles.

Since their bye week, the Patriots have played three very good teams, and lost against the spread all three times. They went toe-to-toe with Pittsburgh and lost as -3.0 point favorites. They were edged out by the Giants as -9.0 favorites. Then they barely beat the Ravens on a shanked field goal by Billy Cundiff where they were big -7.0 favorites.

More and more I’m beginning to think that the oddsmakers overvalue Belichik and Brady and are just banking on them to be the monsters that we expect them to be.

Even as -14.0 favorites against Denver in their first playoff game, the entire state of Massachusetts was ready to have a collective heart attack as Tebow came to town. They knew they should win that game (and they did), but everyone was prepared emotionally for a loss. It’s like everyone is waiting for the Patriots’ bubble to burst except the oddsmakers.

If you start breaking down stats, you’ll point to the fact that the Patriots were one of the worst teams when it came to team defense and pass defense. You know who they were right behind in the defensive ranks against the pass? The New York Giants.

That being said, let’s be realistic. Deion Branch hasn’t done anything meaningful in five years other than switch teams. A lot of what Rob Gronkowski (a +750 MVP candidate) does well is make solid cuts for a man his size in order to run routes over the middle of the field. Good luck doing that with a high ankle sprain.

The real worry for Giants fans – and they know this – is Wes Welker, who caught 9 passes for 136 yards against New York in Week 9. The best cover man for the Giants is Corey Webster, who looked like a stud against Michael Crabtree two weekends ago. But amongst all receivers in the league who start, Crabtree is one of the worst route runners there is. Welker could murder the Giants and make good on his intriguing +1200 odds to be the MVP.

Logically, this is where the line starts to make a lick of sense to me. The Patriots are exceptional at passing the ball, and the Giants have had trouble stopping elite passers. During the regular season, the Giants faced top-10 quarterbacks a total of five times and allowed an average of 311.4 yards, a total of 13 touchdowns and grabbed four interceptions.

So this seems like a cake walk for the Patriots, right? Wrong. In the playoffs, the Giants faced three more top-10 quarterbacks (Alex Smith, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers) and allowed an average of just 219.7 yards against and 4 total touchdowns while stealing a single pick.

Are you that convinced that the favorite to win the game’s MVP at -125, one Tom Brady, is the reason to take the favored Patriots at -3.0? Even after all that?

Let’s get away from facts and talk about intangibles for a second or two. A handicapper friend of mine called me the other day to talk about the “been there, done that” factor and inevitably the conversation between us broke down to the pressure test. If Eli loses this game, it’s really not that big of a deal. He already stole the perfect season from the Patriots, and has a Super Bowl ring with plenty of time to win another one. There’s not a whole lot of shame losing the Super Bowl to the best coach and quarterback of this generation.

But Brady losing? That’s unthinkable. He’d lose twice to the same quarterback, coach and team. He’d have gone 3-2 SU in the Super Bowl causing widespread (and unreasonable) panic about how great he actually is. He’d lose in Indianapolis again, this time with so much more on the line. Worst of all, he’d lose the chance to finally catch Joe Montana with four Super Bowl victories.

With numbers, stats, intangibles and tangibles I can’t bring myself to it. I’ve written over three pages and I still can’t convince myself that the Giants are really underdogs. They’re peaking at the right time, have a proven pass rush against New England and they’re playing with much less hanging over their heads than the Patriots.

Every detail I can think of is on the side of the Giants. The only thing that’s on the side of the Patriots in this Super Sunday Football Betting Event are the oddsmakers. And they’ve got it wrong.

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New York Team Betting Preview For Super Sunday

New York Super Sunday team Betting Snapshot

New York took the long way to this year’s Super Bowl.  They didn’t win their division until the final game of the regular season and then had to win three playoff games, including two on the road, just to get to where they are right now, playing for the Championship.

When it comes to betting, New York provided an interesting regular and playoff season for BetUS Pro Football gamblers. Keep reading for a New York’s betting snapshot!

Against The Spread

The New York Giants go into the Super Bowl with a regular season Against The Spread record of 8-7-1. Their home record Against The Spread was 3-4-1, while away it was 3-4-1.  As is to be expected with a team that enters the Super Bowl with a 12-7 Straight Up record, the Giants got “hot” towards the end of the regular season and in the playoffs.  The G-Men have gone a fantastic 7 and 1 ATS in their last 8 games.  Those last 8 games include their 5 final regular season games as well as their 3 victories in the NFC Playoffs.

Home Record ATS:  3-4-1

Although analyzing a team’s home record Against The Spread for a game played on neutral territory might not make a lot of sense at first, it’s important to note how a team responds to their fan base. After all, there will undoubtedly be a ton of New York Giants’ fans in the Lucas Oil Stadium stands this Sunday.

The Giants actually have a reason for each one of the home ATS losses this season with the exception of the implosion they suffered against the Seattle Seahawks on Oct. 9.  This is the anomaly game in the ATS record. NYG allowed the ‘Hawks, who at the time had one of the worst offenses in the NFL, to score 20 points in the 4th quarter.  Freaky plays abounded in the game, but the G-Men went into the 4th quarter down 16 to 14.  Therefore, it was a legitimate loss ATS for NYG. 

With the exception of that non-cover versus Seattle, as a 10 point favorite in a 25 to 36 Straight Up loss, the Giants’ other home non-covers (and lone “Push”) make sense.

A 14 to 28 loss to rival Washington as a -2.5 point favorite in Week 1 – - The Giants were 1-2-1 Against The Spread in Week 1 in their past four seasons going into this regular season.

A 27 to 24 push to the Buffalo Bills as a -3 point favorite – -  When the Giants played the Buffalo Bills, the Bills were 4 and 1 Straight Up and 3 and 2 Against The Spread.

A 20 to 17 victory over Miami as a -9.5 point favorite – - The game against the Fins turned out to be Miami’s “back in the saddle game”, as the Dolphins ATS victory began a 9 and 1 ATS regular season finish for the Fins.

A 10 to 17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles as a -6 point favorite – - Rival losses are difficult to gauge and the Giants didn’t properly prepare for the change of pace that QB Vince Young brought to Philly in this game.

A 10 to 23 loss to the Washington Redskins as a -5.5 point favorite – - This game occurred after the G-Men’s important victory over the Dallas Cowboys and two weeks after the Giants almost beat Green Bay in a 35 to 38 loss on Dec. 4. A classic “let down” game.

Away Record ATS:  5-3

The Giants got hot on the road Against The Spread at the beginning of the season and then in the playoffs.  In Week 1, the G-Men lost Straight Up to Washington 14 to 28 as a -2.5 point favorite.  In Week 3 NYG beat Philly 29 to 16 as a 9 point favorite, followed by beating Arizona 31 to 27 as a -1 point favorite.  The away Against The Spread record stood at 2 and 1.  Another victory as a 9-point favorite, 24 to 20 versus Super Bowl opponent New England on the road, pushed the fantastic ATS road record to 3 and 1.

The Giants broke a two road loss streak Against The Spread to the San Francisco 49ers, in a 20 to 27 loss as a 4-point dog and to the New Orleans Saints 24 to 49 as a 7-point road dog, before beating Dallas 37 to 34 Straight Up as a 4.5 point road dog and beating the New York Jets 29 to 14 as a 3 point dog.  The G-Men covered in their two away games in the playoffs, a 37 to 20 Straight Up victory as an 8 point dog and a 20 to 17 victory over San Francisco as a 2 point dog.

The Giants simply play better on the road than they do at home.  The victory over New England was particularly impressive and the G-Men were blown out on the road only once this season, on Nov. 28 against the Saints in the Superdome, a fate that many other good teams have shared over the years.

Key Stat ATS – - It’s all about the running game when it comes to the New York Giants.  When the G-Men get their running game going, they are more likely to cover the spread.  NYG went an awesome 8 and 0 Against The Spread during the regular season when they rushed for 100 yards or more.  Those weeks are highlighted below.   

Week 1:  75 yards on the ground, Loss ATS
Week 2:  119 yards, Win ATS
Week 3:  102 yards, Win ATS
Week 4:  54 yards, Win ATS (an anomaly game versus Arizona)
Week 5:  69 yards, Loss ATS
Week 6:  122 yards, Win ATS
Week 7:  Bye
Week 8:  58 yards, Loss ATS
Week 9:  111 yards, Win ATS
Week 10:  93 yards, Loss ATS
Week 11:  29 yards, Loss ATS
Week 12:  73 yards, Loss ATS
Week 13:  100 yards, Win ATS
Week 14:  110 yards, Win ATS
Week 15:  91 yards, Loss ATS
Week 16:  115 yards, Win ATS
Week 17:  106 yards, Win ATS

Total Record:  8-7-1

Odds makers have become much better at offering correct Total lines. Because of that, the Over/Under was almost even for the Giants during the regular season. 

What’s interesting to note is how the 8-7-1 total record came about. It actually points to how well the Giants’ defense gelled towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs.  By their Week 7 bye, the Total had gone 4 Over, 2 Under, and a Push.  The under went 3 and 1 in Weeks 8, 9, 10 and 11.  The over went 4 and 1 after that.  The under went 5 and 1 in the Giants final 3 games of the regular season and 3 games in the playoffs.

Key Total Stat:  Isn’t it obvious? When the Giants’ defense plays well, the game usually goes Under. This should help gamblers when it comes to them deciding on whether or not to play the Under or Over in this Sunday’s Super Bowl.

The G-Men went 5 and 1 Straight Up in their final 6 games, 3 regular season and 3 playoff games.  The Under went 5 and 1.  That’s an important stat.  The only Over game in that streak was the 37 to 20 victory in the Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers.

Overall Betting Snapshot Analysis:  The Giants can play well on the road, meaning that they should have no trouble dealing with whatever fan base shows up this Sunday in Indianapolis.  Although I didn’t mention it, the G-Men are capable of playing on any surface.  So, the fact that Lucas Oil Stadium doesn’t have a grass field won’t hurt the Giants on either offense or defense.

The key stats regarding the New York Giants provide a great way for bettors to gauge how they want to wager this Sunday’s Super Bowl.  The Giants didn’t give up more 20 points in their last 5 games, 3 were playoff games, and in those games the Under went 4 and 1. The Giants went 5 and 0 Against The Spread in those games. 

In a more telling stat, they rushed for over 100 yards in three of those 5 games.  NYG ran for 95 yards against the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round and 85 yards against San Francisco’s rush defense in the NFC Championship Game.  During the regular season, the Giants went 8 and 0 Against The Spread when they rushed for 100 yards or more.

While a game like the 2012 Super Sunday Pro Football Championship can go either way, smart bettors know that sometimes the trends speak for themselves. Hopefully the ones we’ve given you above might help you get some serious bank!

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Super Super XLVI Props Are Up

Your Super Sunday XLVI Props Free Picks

There’s no way that you can say you love gambling on Pro Football without tossing some money around on the platter of Super Bowl XLVI prop bets that are being released soon. For everyone that’s interested, New England is already favored at -3.0 against New York but there’s plenty of time to speculate who will win that matchup in the coming weeks.

This is about the Super Bowl XLVI prop bets, which BetUS.com has served as an all-you-can eat buffet each and every year. There will be the standard bets, like who scores the first touchdown (Gronkowski Pot Pie, anyone?) or how many yards Tom Brady will throw for, but let’s get to some fun ones first.

Peyton Manning Shown on Live TV During The Game (OVER/UNDER 6.5 Times)
How fast can I take the OVER in this total? The Giants-Patriots is designed to be an astoundingly close game, and they showed Peyton scowling and fist pumping in the first Super Bowl matchup between Brady and Eli ad nauseum.

This Super Bowl is taking place in his house pitting his little brother against his arch rival. How can they not have a camera on this guy at all times? And how can you seriously think that single-digit shots of Peyton is a logical bet to make? You can’t.

OVER/UNDER on times they show highlights from 2004 Super Sunday (OVER/UNDER 4.5 Times)
I’ll have to check my dictionary, but highlights don’t include montages, which they’ll show lots of. There are three huge plays from Super Bowl XLII

1) The Helmet Catch
2) Moss’s touchdown in the fourth quarter
3) Plaxico’s touchdown to win the game

There’s no other highlight worth showing, and I’m not even sure that the Moss touchdown is deserving of revisiting for the production team. I’m sure they’ll show the helmet catch at least once, and Plax’s touchdown gets a nod as it sealed the victory. Beyond that? I’m not sure what stands out enough.

Honestly the safe bet is the OVER, but I just can’t conceive of a way they drag out footage of Laurence Maroney returning kicks or Amani Toomer catching an out route to make it the smart play on this prop.

How long will Kelly Clarkson hold the note “Brave” in the National Anthem (OVER/UNDER 5 seconds)
Before I saw her on Saturday Night Live, I would’ve thrown all my money at the OVER, but considering her current physical state, I’d say she wants to get off national television as soon as possible.

Another factor to think about is the whole Steven Tyler thing. The guy was killed by the public for singing too long, and scaring little children with gender confusion. Trust me. Kelly is no diva. She’ll go five second flat.

Gisele Bundchen will kiss Tom Brady during the broadcast (Yes +200)
The simple part of me is all like, “Of course she’ll be there!” but the more I think about it, the more I lean towards her giving her man the spotlight. She has enough of her own, and the last thing she wants to do to Tom during his record tying fourth Super Bowl victory is make it all about her. Hey, I’d love to see more of her as much as anyone, but I don’t even have the Patriots winning this game. You think Brady wants to be caught making out with Gisele after he loses the Super Bowl? Ok, she’s crazy hot, but still.

Bill Belichik Wears a Hoody in First Quarter (Yes -135 / No -105)
When doesn’t this guy wear a hoody? Well when he’s in Miami pretty much. I’ve never been to the new Indy stadium, so I can’t vouch for how hot or cold that place is, but stadiums are always colder than you think they’re going to be. Though he’s probably not that superstitious, I’d say that Belichik keeps the hoody on for at least the first quarter. You don’t mess with a good thing.

Madonna kisses another woman during halftime (Yes +500)
When she kissed Britney, it was so hot. When she triple kissed with Aguielra and Britney, it was kinda hot. Have you seen Madonna lately? She looks like my grandmother if she was alive and anorexic.

I’d like to say that Madonna’s PR team is smarter than letting her fool herself into thinking that kissing Kelly Clarkson on stage will be “hot” but I also saw how she was dressed at the Golden Globes. I’m just going against this happening because I don’t want to see it.

Whatever your Super Bowl XLVI wishes are, BetUS.com will definitely let you bet on them! Stay tuned to the sportsbook for all of the details.

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It’s New York Versus New England in Super Bowl XLVI

Pro Footbal Super Sunday Preview

Just like in 2008 the silver trophy game comes down to New York versus New England.  In 2008, New York, because of a miraculous 4th down catch, provided the biggest upset in championship history over New England.  Four years later, and NY will be looking to provide fireworks again as an underdog.

New England goes into the game as a 3 point favorite.  At this point, although New England is favored, most Pro Football betting handicappers are backing New York, 60% to 40%, but the number is off for the simple fact that the game is still quite a ways away.  On paper, the two teams appear to be evenly matched meaning that another close, tough, game will be in the works at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana on February 5. 

Things have changed for both the New York Giants and the New England Patriots since the 2008 Super Bowl.  The New England Patriots went 16 and 0 during the regular season in 2007.  The Pats sent eight players to the Pro Bowl that year including a wide receiver named Randy Moss.  Four years later and Moss is no longer with the team.  Neither is cornerback Asante Samuel nor linebacker Mike Vrabel.  The season ended with a 14 to 17 loss to the G-Men in Super Bowl XLII.

But the team that New England sends to Super Bowl XLVI isn’t all different.  QB Tom Brady, who will be playing in his fifth Super Bowl on February 5 and who has three Super Bowl rings already, will be under center at kick-off.  Brady, arguably the greatest quarterback to ever step onto an NFL football field, has thrown for 5235 yards and 39 touchdowns leading up to this season’s Super Bowl.  He has wide receiver Wes Welker, who played on the 2008 Super Bowl team, to throw the ball to.  Mr. Brady also has two of the most talented tight-ends in football, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, to deliver the pigskin to.  Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez are a three-headed monster that teams had trouble containing almost every week during the regular season.

On defense, the Patriots, who ended the season allowing over 400 passing yards per game, appear to have rounded into form.  With linebacker Jerod Mayo now healthy, the Patriots can help left end Vince Wilfork pressure the quarterback.  Pressure on the QB forced Denver signal-caller Tim Tebow into a 9 out of 26 night in the Patriots’ 45 to 10 victory over Denver in the Divisional Playoffs Round and Baltimore QB Joe Flacco into an interception in New England’s 23 to 20 victory over the Ravens in the AFC Championship.

Like the Patriots, the New York Giants return some players from that 2008 Super Bowl victory.  QB Eli Manning has put himself into the elite category by leading his team to a second Super Bowl.  The younger Manning, who has thrown for 4933 yards and 29 touchdowns leading up to Super Bowl XLVI, is coming off of an 82.3 QB rating against the San Francisco 49’ers in the Giants’ 20 to 17 victory, but before that, he was stellar.  Eli produced QB ratings of 129.3 versus the Atlanta Falcons in the Wildcard Round and a QB rating of 114.5 versus Green Bay in the Divisional Playoffs Round.  Manning has his own three-headed monster to throw to in wide receivers Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham.  All three have been impressive.  Manningham has 3 touchdowns in the Giants’ three playoff games this season on only 7 catches.  Cruz caught 10 passes for 142 yards versus San Francisco’s stout defense and Nicks had 7 catches for 2 touchdowns and 165 yards against the Green Bay Packers.  The Giants’ rushing game is decent, as opposed to New England’s, which is close to non-existent.  Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both serviceable and can break a long 20 to 30 yard run in certain situations.

The Giants’ defense, like New England’s, has gelled.  The G-Men allowed Atlanta to rack up only 247 yards.  The D gave up only 388 yards and 20 points to Green Bay, not bad considering that the Packers averaged 405 yards and 35 points during the season.  Then, in the NFC Championship, the Giants allowed San Francisco to score only 15 points.

Although there are many Super Bowl stories to discuss leading up to the game, good defenses, great pass-catchers and solid future hall-of-fame coaches in Bill Belichick for New England and Tom Coughlin for the New York Giants, the real story regarding Super Bowl XLVI will come down to the duel between Eli Manning and Tom Brady.  Can Manning, who hails from one of football’s most famous families, win his second Super Bowl?  Can Tom Brady, the former 6th round pick who took over for the Patriots in 2001 and led his team to a Super Bowl title as a decided underdog versus the St. Louis Rams, avenge his only Super Bowl defeat?

Football bettors had better get ready.  Super Bowl XLVI on February 5th promises to be one of the most exciting ever.

       

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Dog’s Day When New York Battles San Francisco

Untitled Document

It’s all about the dogs when New York takes on San Francisco in Sunday’s second game during one of the year’s biggest Pro Football betting weekends.  Both New York and San Francisco won their respective playoff games last weekend as underdogs.  New York upset defending champion Green Bay in a fantastic 37 to 20 performance where they forced last year’s champs into three fumbles.

San Francisco beat New Orleans in one of the toughest, most emotional football games ever in a 36 to 32 victory.  The lead changed hands three times with less than 2:15 on the clock in the 4th quarter.  San Francisco came out on top in stunning fashion by scoring a TD with only 14 seconds left in the game.

Keep reading for more info on this Sunday’s exciting championship game!

NFC Championship:  New York Giants at San Francisco 49’ers

When:  Jan. 22 at 6:30 pm EST

Betting Line:  San Francisco -2.5, Total 42.5   

Offense

Offensively, the New York Giants have been absolutely brilliant in their last four contests.  The G-Men have averaged 30.25 points per game in their last four.  Although beating up on the Dallas Cowboys, by scoring 31, and the Green Bay Packers and their 32nd ranked defense by putting up 37 is understandable, putting up 24 versus Atlanta’s 12th ranked defense in the Wildcard Round and rocking the New York Jets’ 5th ranked D with 29 points on Christmas Eve was ultra-impressive.

It all starts with Eli Manning for the G-Men when they have the ball.  Peyton’s little brother is now in the elite class after taking his team to the NFC Championship game only four years after upsetting the New England Patriots as the quarterback for the largest underdog in the history of the Super Bowl.  Eli has been sensational in the Giants’ last three games.  He produced a 136.7 QB rating against the rival Cowboys.  That victory gave the Giants the NFC East title.  Against the Falcons, Eli threw 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.  He also threw for 277 yards.  He finished with a 129.3 QB rating.  Versus the Packers this past Sunday, Manning threw for 330 yards and 3 TDs with only 1 pick for a 114 QB rating.

The Giants’ rushing attack has gotten better although it’s still ranked 32nd in the NFL.  The G-Men produced 172 yards on the ground versus the Atlanta Falcons, but last Sunday, in the Divisional Round, NYG could only rush for 95 yards against Green Bay.  Both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are capable of racking up yards on the turf for New York and Eli is quicker and has more moves with his feet than brother Peyton.  The wide receivers are exceptional.  Hakeem Nicks is one of the best in the NFL.  Victor Cruz has the speed to break catches for long gains and Eli trusts Mario Manningham who has become a very good possession receiver.

The San Francisco 49’ers offense has gotten better and better this season.  The 36 to 32 victory over the Saints this past Sunday proves how efficient Alex Smith has become.  His pass to Vernon Davis, with only 40 seconds left, to set up the game winning TD was absolutely perfect.  Smith doesn’t throw for a lot of yards or a ton of TD’s but he rarely makes a mistake.  He’s tossed only 5 interceptions this season and hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 12.  That’s amazing.  Not only that, but the man is incredibly coachable meaning that all he wants to do is what’s good for the team.  He’s got a fantastic target in Davis who is also an incredible blocker and the usually sure-handed Michael Crabtree has developed a nice rhythm with Smith.

San Francisco’s offense is all about the run.  The 49’ers average 128 yards on the ground.  Both starter Frank Gore and back-up Kendall Hunter are capable of busting a long one and the Niners are incredibly disciplined meaning that they will stick to the rush for the entire game even if it’s not working early on in the game.  San Francisco has the luxury of being able to trust their rushing attack because of their strong defense.

Defense

Both teams bring stellar defenses to Sunday’s NFC Championship Game.  The New York Giants’ D held the Atlanta Falcons to 64 rushing yards, 183 passing yards and no points, in their wildcard victory. Atlanta’s only 2 points came on a safety.  Then, the Giants forced Green Bay into 3 fumbles and Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers into a pick and a 26 out of 46 night. That was easily the worst performance of the season for Rodgers.  The Giants’ defensive line is one of the best in the league.  Jason Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Chris Canty can all break double-teams meaning that the G-Men are very difficult to keep away from the QB.  The linebacking corp, led by Michael Boley and Mathias Kiwanuka, is very good, and safeties Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle are both exceptional playmakers. 

The most points that the Giants have given up since the victory over NYJ on Dec. 24th, was 20 to Green Bay last Sunday.  Since Green Bay had the best offense in the NFL this season, giving up 20 is nothing to worry about.  The Giants’ defense has simply been incredible in the past 4 weeks.

San Francisco’s defense is arguably the best in the NFL.  San Francisco’s D is ranked 1st in the NFL versus the rush, allowing only 77.2 yards per game, 16th against the pass, allowing 231 yards per game through the air, and 2nd in the league in scoring, allowing 14.3 points per game.  San Francisco’s 3-4 defense is very manageable. San Francisco’s coaches can switch to a 4-3 or even a nickel.  The defense is aggressive.  It forced New Orleans’ QB Drew Brees into two interceptions and RB Pierre Thomas into a fumble on the Saints’ first drive of the game.

Like the Giants’ frontline, the 49’ers can pressure the QB with three or four pass rushers.  Justin Smith was an absolute beast against the Saints in the divisional round victory while free safety Dashon Goldson had 11 tackles and a pick against the usually perfect Brees.

Betting Analysis

My first thought was that it’s going to be next to impossible for the San Francisco 49’ers to get motivated this Sunday after such an emotional game against the New York Giants.  Then, I suddenly realized that the San Francisco 49’ers are coached by one Jim Harbaugh and that the man could motivate a lemming to not jump off of a cliff.  Harbaugh won’t allow his team to take a seat back emotionally meaning that they’re going to be fired up to beat a Manning and get to the Super Bowl. 

The Giants are definitely no slouches, but as good as their defense is, I’m just not convinced that it matches up well with the San Francisco 49’ers offense.  The Giants’ D allowed the Jets to rush for 105 yards on the ground.  It allowed the Packers to rush for 147 yards.  Yes, the Giants shut down Dallas’s and Atlanta’s rushing attacks, but San Francisco won’t give up on the run in this game because they won’t get behind the Giants.  San Francisco’s defense is simply too good.  It can stop New York’s rushing attack without an extra man in the box, a luxury that the G-Men don’t have on D, and Goldson might be the best free safety in football.

My gut tells me that the San Francisco 49’ers are the team to back against the spread.  SF has the better special teams with kicker David Akers as good as it gets from 50 yards and beyond, punter Andy Lee averaging over 50 yards per punt, and the special teams forcing the Saints to fumble twice last Saturday. 

But the real reason I like the San Francisco 49’ers comes down to the play of the individual quarterbacks in this game, Eli Manning for the Giants, and Alex Smith for the Niners.  Eli has played very well lately, but he still threw 16 interceptions during the regular season and everybody saw how good the San Francisco 49’ers are at masking their defense in the secondary against Brees and the Saints.  Smith hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 12 and showed pinpoint accuracy with his passes to tight end Vernon Davis against the Saints.

Speaking of Davis, because he’s so good and so fast, Phillips or Rolle will have to guard him one-on-one when NYG is on D.  What it means is that the Giants, for all intents and purposes, might not be able to play 8 men in the box to shut down the 49’ers rushing attack.

All of the signs point to the San Francisco 49’ers marching on to the Super Bowl after beating the New York Giants and covering the spread on Sunday.  I’m backing the San Francisco 49’ers in the 2012 NFC Championship Game.

Pick:  San Francisco 49’ers -2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

         

 

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New England’s Shot At Redemption

NFL AFC Divisional Playoff Betting – New England’s Shot At Redemption

Up until trouncing Denver last weekend, New England hadn’t won a playoff game since 2007. They haven’t won the Super Bowl since 2004. To say that those are eye opening factoids speaks volumes about the greatness of this franchise, but Sunday’s test against Baltimore will be one they have to pass before facing serious scrutiny. The NFL is a “what have you done for me lately” kind of league.

Ask the oddsmakers in Pro Football betting and they’ll have no problems backing the home team. The betting line on this game opened at -9.0 for New England, but quickly corrected down to a single touchdown with a bloated total that reflects both New England’s potent offense, and their spread legged defense. That number also factors in the fervent public backing a team like New England receives.

The Patriots are a team you know very well, because they get a lot of well deserved press. They’ve scored 37.3 points per game in a 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS winning streak since Week 10. During that nine game run, they’ve allowed an average of 18.6 points against. That being said, they haven’t played great teams during that streak, unless you count the imploding Eagles in Week 12.

New England Patriots (13-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (14-3)
Sunday, January 22nd —- Gillette Stadium, Foxboro — 3:00pm EST
NFL Payoff Betting Line: New England -7.0 (50.5)

I have had a lot of trouble toeing the line on Baltimore being a “great team” this season. Joe Flacco has been about as ordinary as you can be while leading his team to a division title (no offense to Alex Smith). He ranks well out of the top-10 in all the important statistical metrics for a quarterback. Despite playing with a “why doesn’t anyone think I’m good” chip on his shoulder, Flacco was bested by a Texans defense which limited him to just 176 passing yards last weekend.

Personally, Flacco is lumped in to a bevy of playoff tested quarterbacks that I doubt have “that switch” you need to go bananas in big moments. Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Phillip Rivers are in that group. If he can pull the trigger against the Patriots, I’ll have a little more faith in him, but it should serve as a red flag that teammates like Ed Reed have also been critical of Flacco.

The betting trends don’t exactly favor the Ravens either, which might help explain the betting line. Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 game overall, and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the AFC. They’re also 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 visits to Foxboro and are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Patriots overall.

New England doesn’t instill incredible confidence given their defensive shortcomings. It doesn’t help much that they’re also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home playoff games. What should help is that they’re 5-2 ATS in their last 7 tilts against the AFC. Even more startling is that they’re 45-21-2 ATS in their last 68 games when they total 350 yards of offense in the previous game.

Admittedly, I had to reach deep in to the bag of tricks for that last betting trend which, more than anything, should tell you that the gambling analytics for this matchup are basically all over the place.

For my money, I love the Patriots. Ray Rice will cause some serious problems for Belichik, but I’m not convinced by Flacco. Even when it comes to Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, I think that Gronkowski has the youth and physical tools to beat both of them in coverage. Nobody’s been able to stop that guy.

The x-factor in this game is pressure. Tom Brady is used to this kind of spotlight. For the most part, he’s thrived beyond belief in this type of situation. Joe Flacco not only isn’t used to it, he’s unproven. If you think that the Ravens defense can carry them in this one, then keep in mind that they haven’t really played that many raging offenses all season (San Diego and Pittsburgh aside).

When you find yourself waffling on either side of the line, go with the known and trusted commodity. There are a lot of little things going against the Ravens like their 2-5-1 ATS record on turf, and I’m not completely sold on their intangibles.

If we know anything about the NFL it’s that this is a quarterback’s league. So take the quarterback you can trust. Take Tom Brady and watch him earn his fifth berth in a Super Bowl while he covers the spread. I can’t back Joe Flacco against a defense like New England when the Patriots are employing the best possible foil to a weak defense: an offense that scores without remorse.

NFL Playoff Betting Free Pick: New England -7.0 (UNDER)

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Divisional Pro Football Playoffs – San Francisco vs. New Orleans / Denver vs. New England

Pro Football Divisional Playoff Preview – Saturday Games

It’s Divisional Playoff weekend and this Saturday’s games are huge stories, but even better, they’re huge Pro Football betting events. Let’s take a look at both matchups.

SAN FRANCISCO +3.5 over New Orleans

I know, I know, I know. Everyone loves the team from the Big Easy, but there’s a lot to like about the home dogs in this game. For those that have been betting this season, both sides have been bosses against the betting line. San Francisco totes a strong 12-3-1 ATS record this season, while New Orleans has gone an equally impressive 13-4 ATS after demolishing the Lions (thanks a lot, refs).

Despite San Francisco’s almost unreal showing this year, the betting trends lean heavily in favor of New Orleans and for very good reason. Not only are they an unreal 8-0 ATS against the NFC this season, they’re also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games when posting as the favorite.

That’s why the betting line has been inching away from the home team, which is odd because nobody travels to the west coast and plays that well. Remember Drew Brees and the defending champion Saints getting upended by Beast Mode and the unlikely Seahawks?

Ok, ok. That’s not enough to go on. For you nerds, the numbers are actually pretty even for the Niners as well. They’re 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home when listed as the underdog and a polished 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 NFC matchups.

I bring this up because the Niners are not the sexy team that the Saints are. You take Drew Brees over Alex Smith any day of the century. This is Jim Harbaugh’s first professional appearance in the playoffs, and Sean Payton won a Super Bowl two years ago. The Niners’ defense is predicated on stopping the run, which is actually how New Orleans sets up their high flying offense. Don’t expect San Francisco to miss the tackles that Detroit did, and that will limit what the Saints can do offensively.

Keep in mind that when these two teams met during New Orleans’ Super Bowl campaign in 2010, the floundering Niners lost 25-22 at Candlestick. If the Niners know how to do anything, it’s win a dogfight, especially at home. They went 7-1 SU at home this season, winning in double digits every single time and losing to Dallas in Week 2 by a field goal in overtime.

San Francisco is not a sexy bet by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re the smart one. I don’t like when teams travel west all that much, and the Niners’ dominance at home this season, plus their unsung performance when hosting as dogs, should be the kicker you need to bank on Alex Smith.

NEW ENGLAND -13.5 over Denver Broncos

Please don’t overthink this too much. Denver barely got past the Steelers who were playing their b-team on defense due to injuries, while Ben Roethlisberger was literally a stiff shell of himself. Even then, they needed everything to go right for them.

That won’t happen in the scathing cold of Foxboro. The Patriots are a hot 11-5 ATS against AFC opponents and know that the key to beating Denver is very simple: build a lead early and don’t let up. That’s what happened in their 41-23 beatdown of Denver and that’s what’s going to happen again.

Denver lost a major passing weapon in Eric Decker and while Demaryius Thomas showed flashes of what made him a deserving first round pick (over Tebow no less), he’s not the one man army that you need to beat New England. The best defense in this game is a great offense, and the Patriots have that in spades.

I don’t hate Tim Tebow. I don’t think Josh McDaniels will offer that much sage advice on a player he never started while in Denver. What you should do is simple: you’re already leaning towards New England. Enjoy the hype around Tebow, just don’t get yanked in like the rest of the suckers.

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Divisional Pro Football Playoffs – Houston vs. Baltimore / New York vs. Green Bay

Pro Football Divisional Playoffs – Houston vs. Baltimore and New York vs. Green Bay

Houston won their first playoff game in franchise history when they tore Cincinnati a new one in a 31 to 10 blowout victory in the Wildcard Round.  Now, Houston travels to Baltimore to take on the two seed.  Football odds makers believe that things are going to get much tougher for the Texans in the Divisional Round.  Houston is a big 7.5 point underdog against Baltimore on January 15.

Also on January 15, New York, fresh off of a 24 to 2 beat down of Atlanta, take on Green Bay in what has turned into a highly anticipated matchup.  Green Bay is a stout 8 point favorite to beat New York for the second time this season.

Keep reading for more info on Sunday’s Pro Football Playoff Matchups.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

When:  Jan. 15 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Baltimore -7.5, Total 35.5  

Analysis:  Football odds makers might have overestimated how bullish football handicappers will be on the favorites this weekend.  Although every home team won during the Wildcard Round last weekend, and every home team covered the spread, so far 65% of bettors back the Texans to cover against Baltimore this Sunday.  That’s a big percentage of bettors that think Houston will make it two in a row.

It’s tough to be a contrarian in this situation.  Baltimore was only 4-3-1 ATS at home during the regular season.  Not only that, but Baltimore went 3 and 1 ATS in their final 4 games of the season.  The Raven’s offense was downright scary awful in those 4 games when putting up only 24 against Indianapolis, the worst team in the NFL during the regular season, 14 on the road against San Diego, 20 against the stout Cleveland Browns and 24 against Cincinnati.

Defensively, the Ravens left something to be desired in those final 4 games.  The 34 points that Baltimore gave up to San Diego on Dec. 18 was downright embarrassing.  Only giving up 16 to Cincinnati was nice, but Houston’s offense might be better than Cincinnati’s at this point.

There aren’t many negatives regarding Houston going into this contest.  The biggest is the fact that Taylor Yates, the Texans’ rookie QB, is, well, a rookie, but that doesn’t bother me.  Why?  Because Yates has thrown only 3 picks since becoming the starter.  He’s tossed only 3 touchdowns…but 3 picks in 7 games?  It shows that Yates is being ultra careful with the ball and that’s the way for Houston to win the playoffs because their defense is the best in the NFL.

Technically, Houston’s D is ranked second in the NFL, Pittsburgh’s is first (I’m only counting regular season rankings), but we all saw what Denver and their future hall-of-fame QB did to the Steelers this past Sunday, so…I’m putting Houston on top. The unit allowed only 286 passing yards per game and 96 yards per game on the ground.  Baltimore did score 29 points against the Texans last October in a 29 to 16 Houston loss, but that was before Houston ran off 7 straight victories where they went 6-0-1 against the spread.

As far as Baltimore is concerned, QB Joe Flacco just doesn’t inspire confidence.  Flacco’s 80.9 QB rating is close to Yates’s QB rating.  Not only that, but because Baltimore insists that Flacco is a good QB, they allow him to take chances on the field, unlike Yates who is kept on a short leash.  It means that Flacco has the chance of making more mistakes than Yates on Sunday.  Ravens’ RB Ray Rice is a monster of a runner and he no doubt could give the Texans’ D fits, but there will come a point in this game where Flacco will have to make a key decision.  I’ll be betting that he makes the wrong decision.

The brilliant Ray Lewis will be healthier in this game than he has been all season long and that will cause disruptions to Houston’s offense, but Baltimore’s D is much older than Houston’s.  Houston has the ability to pound at Baltimore’s defense for much of this game because their back-up to RB Arian Foster, Ben Tate, is very good.  Houston kicker Neil Rackers booted 4 field goals of 50+ yards this season.  Rackers gives Houston’s offensive coordinator the luxury to be conservative in this matchup.

I’ve got to go with the Houston Texans to cover the spread.  The Texans have momentum going into the game, a stronger defense than Baltimore’s, and an offensive philosophy that sets them up perfectly for a potential upset.  In fact, if you’re a brave football bettor, you should think about putting dollars on the Texans to win this game straight up.   

Pick:  Houston Texans to cover -7.5

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

When:  Jan. 8, 4:30 pm EST

Betting Line:  Green Bay -8, Total 52.5

Analysis:  Things could get rough for the Green Bay Packers in their quest for a second straight Super Bowl victory on Jan. 8.  The Packers face an opponent in the New York Giants who almost beat them in Week 13 (38 to 35), and who has won 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5.  The Giants are an 8 point dog Against The Spread versus Green Bay, but like the Ravens versus Texans game earlier in the day, I have to back the underdog to cover in this contest.

I’m not alone.  66% of football handicappers are taking the points when the Packers battle the Giants on Jan. 15.  That’s a big percentage of gamblers who believe that the Giants will cover the spread.  There a few reasons for this, but the main one has to do with the Giants’ defense.

The Giants have given up a total of 30 points in NYG’s last 3 games.  That includes allowing Atlanta, a team that averaged 25 points per game during the regular season, a total of 2 points in the Giants 24 to 2 Wildcard Round victory.  The Giants held Atlanta to a total of 247 yards.  I’m not expecting the G-Men to do the same thing to Green Bay on Sunday, but I am expecting them to keep Green Bay under control.

I am also expecting QB Eli Manning to exploit Green Bay’s less than stellar defensive backfield.  Eli torched GB for 347 yards and 3 TDs the first time that these two teams met.  I expect Eli to do the same if the Packers commit to stopping the Giants’ rushing attack that woke up against Atlanta with 172 yards on the ground.  Brandon Jacobs ran for 92 and Ahmad Bradshaw ran for 63 versus Atlanta last Sunday.  If either one of those guys produces a game akin to what they did in the Wildcard Round, then expect the G-Men to not only keep this game close but to also have a shot to win it all in the fourth quarter.

What of Green Bay, though?  The Packers are still one of the top teams in the NFL although they lost to Kansas City 19 to 14 in Week 15 and produced a less than stellar effort defensively versus against Detroit in Week 17.  The issue with Green Bay is that although their offense, led by a true future hall-of-fame QB in Aaron Rodgers, averages 35 points per game, tops in the league, GB’s D just isn’t very good. 

The Packers’ D allows 411 yards per game – that’s the worst in the league. Not only that, but the offense allows 22.4 points per game.  Green Bay plays like the Oregon Ducks from the Pac 10, run up a huge lead and then hope the defense doesn’t give up the entire lead before the clock runs out.

I don’t believe that Green Bay’s offense is that much better than the New York Giants’ offense at this point of the season. 
 
I believe that the New York Giants have a good shot of not only covering the spread but also of upsetting the Green Bay Packers on the road in this Pro Football Divisional Playoff Round game on Sunday.  Not only did Eli and the G-Men almost pull off the upset during the regular season but NYG’s running game has hit its stride and the Giants’ D has been playing exceptionally well.

I’m all over NYG to cover against GB on Jan. 15.

Pick:  New York Giants To Cover

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