MMA on Fox 2 Free Picks, Preview, and more

The UFC debuting on the FOX Network back in November marked one of the biggest moments in the sport, and not just because the heavyweight title changed hands. Dana White has done such a spectacular job of promoting the UFC to the mainstream, and with another free rendition of the UFC on FOX coming this weekend there’s sure to be a lot of people tuning in to fill the sports void left by the NHL and NFL this weekend.

This is a sport that has a tremendous public appeal to sports fans. At its very core, mixed martial arts is simply guys punching each other in the face. Approaching boxing’s insane financial numbers is priority one for the UFC, and offering awesome, free fights to the general public will only serve to increase the rapidly growing throngs of UFC diehards who salivate at each and every card the promotion rolls out.

UFC on FOX 2: Evans vs. Davis will be absolutely no exception and the main card is packed with big names and plenty on the line. Let’s get to the card, which will come off the board Saturday night at around 9:00pm, just so you know.

PHIL DAVIS (+155) over RASHAD EVANS (-190)
The main event of Saturday night’s unreal card pits the undefeated Phil Davis against Rashad Evans in what could very well be a light heavyweight number one contender’s fight. The polarizing Evans has torn through Thiago Silva, Rampage and Tito in a three fight streak that sees him on the precipice of a bout with the seemingly invincible Jon “Bones” Jones.

The 32-year old Evans gives up an age gap of five years, a three-inch height disadvantage and over a half-foot reach disparity to the meteor known as Phil Davis. Also known as “Mr. Wonderful”, which also happens to be the name of the submission maneuver he invented, Davis will have to take this fight to the ground to have a better chance of winning and could use his big reach in this fight to frustrate Evans and bait him to the mat.

Davis is a wrestling specialist, having won the NCAA Division I championship in his weight class while also being honored as a four-time All-American. Those that do not know Davis yet will certainly know him if he can build his win streak to double digits and earn his third submission in his sixth UFC fight.

The veteran Evans has been promised a championship match with Jones should he win, and he’s certainly no slouch on the ground. The problem with people backing Evans on the ground here is that he hasn’t won via submission since his first two fights back in 2004. People these days know him as a grinder which is why his TKO over Tito Ortiz was a bit of a stunner.

Evans will surrender every possible advantage in this match to Davis, and on top of that, the latter is a more tactical and creative mat wrestler. His odds are tasty at +140, and while Davis has no guarantees of a championship shot if he wins, he can certainly up the ante if he submits Evans. This is undoubtedly Davis’s biggest test in his entire career, but after going the distance and winning against Nogueira last March, I have all the faith in the world that the underdog can pull off what only the bookies will deem as an upset.

CHAEL SONNEN (-500) over MICHAEL BISPING (+350)
Most UFC bettors are of the opinion that Michael Bisping is a douchebag and Chael Sonnen is the voice of the people. I happen to go the other way. I’ve always liked Bisping, especially for his brash attitude (the accent helps). Chael is more the voice of the douchebags, but that has nothing to do with his skill in the octagon.

The convicted money launderer and alleged steroid abuser from Oregon is a highly regarded wrestler, but still has plenty to prove since he lost to Anderson Silva and beat an outmatched Brian Stann in October’s UFC 136. It’s not that I doubt Sonnen’s talent, because that’s not up for debate. But he’s honestly one loss away from becoming the Rex Ryan of the UFC.

It’s probably pretty easy to tell how I feel about Sonnen, but I can’t negate that this is a dream matchup for him. Bisping was vulnerable to both the ground-and-pound and takedowns against Jason Miller, and Sonnen is as sneaky as ninjas get in baiting his opponents before dumping them to the canvas.

What I hate about betting on Bisping after the Miller fight was his inability to put a gassed, bloodied and defenseless Miller away. Bisping’s four-fight winning streak has been fun for his fans, but there’s no way you can leverage a bet on his side of the betting line considering his vulnerability to takedowns and his lacking knockout power.

CHRIS WEIDMAN (-140) over DEMIAN MAIA (+110)
Weidman is another young name that the UFC is confident in building around, which his pretty much what we said about Demian Maia when he ascended up the UFC ladder with five straight submission wins between 2007 and 2009. Then he was decimated by Nate Marquardt at UFC 102 in one of my favorite knockouts of all-time, and things have never been the same.

Sure, Maia earned a shot against Silva a year later and went the distance at UFC 112: Silva vs. Maia but that’s also the fight where Silva took pity on his opponent instead of vanquishing him back to the mid-card. Truth be told, for a guy that is known as a submission specialist and a masterful wrestling architect, I find it alarming that Maia hasn’t won by submission since 2009 (over Sonnen, no less) and is teetering at the end of his 15-3 career at the age of 34.

Weidman is not only much younger at 27 years old; he’s an impressive 7-0 through his career and has earned two straight submissions in his past two fights. While Weidman hasn’t faced a big name ever, Maia simply isn’t the guy we thought he was. Frankly, we can’t be sure if Weidman’s as good as we think he is, but he’s certainly strong enough in the octagon to warrant an opening fight wager on his side.

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UFC Rio – Aldo vs. Mendes Preview

It’s an MMA betting Battle Royale in Rio de Janeiro on Jan. 14 as two of the best young fighters on the planet will step into the cage to throw down in a major championship war in the featherweight division.

Will Junior keep Money from taking away his title?  Keep reading for an analysis of this major BetUS Mixed Martial Arts Betting title fight! 

UFC Rio:  Aldo vs Mendes

When:  Jan. 14, 2012 7pm/10pm

Where:  HSBC Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Betting Line 

Chad Mendes              +190
Jose Aldo                    -240

Jose Aldo

Jose Aldo is the top-ranked featherweight MMA fighter in the world.  There’s a reason for that.  The man has lost only one fight in a 21 fight career, back in 2005 at the hands of Luciano Avezedo.  Never heard of Avezedo?  Exactly, which is why most fight fans consider the loss a fluke.  Since the Avezedo loss, Aldo has won 13 straight.  His victories include beating highly regarded opponents Urijah Faber, Manvel Gamburyan, Mark Hominick and Kenny Florian.

Aldo is reported as having a very strong ground game, but he uses his striking ability 73% of the time in his fights.  The reason for him to do this is simple; Aldo is as fast as any fighter in MMA and he’s equally fast striking with his hands and his legs.  He can produce an amazing leg sweep that many times gets his opponent to the ground where he follows up with a vicious ground and pound.

It took Aldo only two punches to knockout Cub Swanson in 2009, proving that he indeed does have power, but Aldo has no trouble taking his time and winning by decision.  He beat Urijah Faber via decision by outpointing the incredibly popular surfer fighting dude 77 to 20 in strikes.  He beat Mark Hominick via decision by outpointing his worthy opponent 94 to 71 on strikes and 5 to 1 on takedowns.  He beat Kenny Florian via a 51 to 40 strike advantage.

Aldo’s amazing speed equates to an incredible defense.  The UFC Featherweight Champion avoids 72% of the strikes attempted against him and an incredible 94% of takedown attempts against him.     

Chad Mendes

You don’t get to 11 and 0 in MMA unless you have talent.  The days of becoming a champion off of only a couple of fights (Brock Lesnar, anyone?) are gone.  Mendes is one of the best wrestlers in the world.  He backs up his incredible wrestling skills with incredible patience and discipline.  Since Mendes has won his last 6 fights via decision, the discipline is evident.

Mendes strikes only 22% of the time.  He usually strikes only in order to set up his incredible takedown ability.  73% of his skill breakdown involves takedowns.  He doesn’t often submit his opponents since Mendes isn’t a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grappler.  Instead, he piles up points via takedowns, keeps his opponent on the ground, and uses his wrestling ability to dominate fights.  When it comes to defense, Mendes is exceptionally gifted.  He prevents 74% of the strikes attempted against him and his takedown defense is simply marvelous.  Mendes’s takedown defense is 100% meaning that he has avoided every takedown attempt against him.

Overall Analysis

Chad Mendes might possibly be the most skilled fighter that Jose Aldo has ever met, but there’s a question as to whether or not Mendes’s wrestling skill will set him up for the upset in this battle.  This fight is going to hinge on two things:  first, will Mendes be able to handle Aldo’s amazing speed?  Second, will Mendes get Aldo to the ground?

In regards to the first question, Mendes will be facing the fastest man he has ever faced in MMA.  Mendes only prevents 74% of strikes against him.  Rest assured that Aldo will lower that 74% to 64% or possibly even 54% in this fight.  Mendes has an excellent chin, but his entire fight plan rests on the answer to the second question and I’m not so sure the answer to that is in Mendes’s favor. Aldo’s takedown defense is exceptional.  Preventing 94% of takedowns is as good as it gets considering the fighters that Aldo has faced.  As good as Mendes is, he’s going to have to work exceptionally well in order to get Aldo to the mat.

Will it happen?  As much respect as I have for Mendes, the answer is no.  I just don’t see how Mendes will be able to get Aldo to ground considering that he has to go full force into Aldo’s chest to do it.  If Mendes tries to take Aldo down by going to the side, Aldo will simply sidestep and land a barrage of punches or force Mendes into a headlock.  Either way, Mendes will have his work cut out for him.

To be sure, Aldo is taking no chances.  He’s been working on his ground game with Gray Maynard, an exceptional wrestler.  If Aldo needs to employ his newly found wrestling skills, then that’s what he will do.  I don’t believe Aldo will.  To me, the 74% strike prevention rate for Mendes and the 94% takedown prevention rate for Aldo are the keys.  Aldo is just too fast for Mendes to handle.  Aldo should be able to pop in, land a flurry of punches, and then pop out before Mendes is able to get him to the ground.

Because of that, I simply can’t back Mendes in this fight.  The odds are nice and Mendes is an exceptional wrestler, but Aldo is the best featherweight, possibly the best fighter, in Mixed Martial Arts.  Mendes has a shot but it’s not much of one.  I’m backing Jose Aldo to win on Jan. 14. 

 
Pick:  Jose Aldo -240

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UFC 141 Betting Free Picks

The madness of monsters mashing goes down a day before the rest of you mini monsters try to hook up with the drunkest girl in the bar at Midnight, so remember to get your Bet US Wagers on these UFC 141 Predictions NOW.

UFC 141 – Friday, December 30, 2011 at 10:00 p.m. ET on pay-per-view
MGM Grand Garden Arena (16,800) – Las Vegas, Nevada
Brock Lesnar – (+120)
Alistair Overeem – (-150)
Total Rounds Over – (+160)
Total Rounds Under – (-200)

The Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem Main Event is already hyped more than the Twilight movies. Hold it, that is impossible. OK, it didn’t come close to that but it is going to live up to the hype they are putting out.

Brock Lesnar (5-2-0, 2 KOs) is coming off a long layoff after losing to Cain Velasquez and subsequent stomach malady, but when your ego is as big as your mammoth hulk body it takes time to heal. I really think it is overblown, and if he is fighting there are no health, shape or attitude issues to worry about with Lesnar.

He is probably just glad he isn’t dealing with a possible steroid test. If EITHER of these guys ever pass a steroid test, there is some fishy stuff going on with the testers. Seriously folks, like they’re not both going max on the JUICE every day. That just makes for a better ‘ROID rage fight in my opinion.

The Nevada State Athletic Commission has granted a conditional (unconditional if you ask me) license to this other hulk-ish figure Alistair Overeem (35-11-0, 14 KOs) so the rest of us get to witness what it would be like if REAL giants existed in our world and fought.

Overeem is 256 pounds and 6’5” while Lesnar is 6’3” and 265 pounds. I don’t know what that means, but I thought it was a cool fight fact.

UFC 141 Predictions – Brock Lesnar (+120) KOs Alistair Overeem in 2nd Round, so BET BROCK

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (17-3) vs Nate Diaz (14-7)

This UFC 141 Co-Main Event is a Lightweight match between Ultimate Fighter 5 participant Nate Diaz (+200) and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (-260) who has 6 wins in a row. Cerrone has been on a terror after just bouncing to the UFC after being in the WEC.

Both of these fighters are submission freaks, and I expect this co-main event to end that same way. Cerrone is one tough MF, and though I don’t expect this to be easy, I expect his range of fighting to frustrate Diaz into making a mistake. Betting UNDER 2.5 Rounds +130 is a possibility also.

UFC 141 Predictions – Donald Cerrone wins by submission over Nate (not Nick) Diaz in second round

Johny Hendricks (11-1) vs Jon Fitch (23-3-1)

Jon Fitch (-260) was in a draw with BJ Penn, and defeated Thiago Alves two times. Maybe due to his lack of know-out ability, this guy is not quite getting the adoration he will have after he wins this one by decision. He had a shoulder injury, so it has been 10 months since his last octagon decision.

This kid Johny Hendricks (+200) is a former NCAA Wrestling Champion, but he doesn’t have the experience or the MMA incorporation of other skills enough yet. Watch this kid in future, because I believe he will be an up and comer but just not against Jon Fitch.

UFC 141 Predictions – Jon Fitch wins by Decision over Johny Hendricks

Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5) vs Alexander Gustafsson (12-1)

The Old Guy in the Club just can’t compete with New Hotness anymore. Vladimir (+250) doesn’t have the stamina to stay with Gustafsson (-350) in this MMA betting event against the kid who is rising to stardom.

UFC 141 Predictions – Alexander Gustafsson wins by KO in second round over Vladimir Matyushenko

UFC 140 Betting Preview

Mixed martial arts – and the value-packed betting opportunities that come with it – will be on center stage when UFC 140 gets under way live from the Air Canada Centre in Toronto on Saturday, Dec. 10 at 9:00 PM ET.

Better yet, the BetUS MMA betting faithful are set to get a trio of bankroll-boosting picks on the top three fights on the exciting value-packed UFC 140 betting card. First up, we’ll look at the headline light heavyweight bout featuring Jon ‘Bones’ Jones taking on Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida, followed by a pair of bouts featuring the Nogueira twins.

What: UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida
Where: Air Canada Centre, Toronto
When: Saturday, Dec. 10 at 9:00 PM ET on Pay-Per-View
Facebook stream at 5:45 PM ET
Ion televised card starts at 7:00 PM ET

UFC Odds
Lyoto Machida +325
Jon Jones -450

Name: Lyoto Machida
Age: 33
Nickname: The Dragon
Record: 17 – 2 – 0
Height: 6’1" (186cm)
Weight: 204lbs (93kg)
Country: Brazil

The Scoop: Lyoto Machida is coming off a thrilling second round KO (jumping kick) win over the legendary Randy Couture at UFC 129 in April to bounce back nicely following a pair of consecutive losses to Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson and Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua at UFC 123 and UFC 113 respectively. The jaw-dropping win was the Fight of the Night at UFC 129. Machida specializes in Shokotan Karate, Sumo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The Dragon has recorded six career wins by knockout, nine via decision and two by way of submission.

Name: Jon Jones
Age: 24
Nickname: Bones
Record: 14 – 1 – 0
Height: 6’4" (194cm)
Weight: 204lbs (93kg)
Country: United States

The Scoop: Jon ‘Bones’ Jones has won five consecutive fights, including his title-defending, second round submission (rear-naked choke) win over Quinton Jackson at UFC 135 in September. The multi-faceted Jones uses Taekwondo, Muay Thai, Greco-Roman Wrestling and Gaidojutsu to generally overwhelm his opponents. Jones has recorded eight of his 14 career wins via knockout, four by way of submission and two by way of decision.

Fight Prediction: If you’ve seen Jon ‘Bones’ Jones this year, then you already know that he’s one of the most gifted athletes on the face of the planet, not just in the UFC. Jones has had an absolutely incredible year and could cap it off with arguably the greatest single-year campaign in UFC history by beating Machida in this fight.

Jones has already taken it to top-notch fighters, Ryan Bader, Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson this year and he’ll get to add another top-notch name to that list in beating Machida in this bout.

While ‘The Dragon’ is undoubtedly one of the very best light heavyweight fighters in the world today – and one that will certainly not go down easily – I still can’t see the freakishly athletic Jones not coming out on top in this fight.

I think BetUS MMA gamblers can expect Machida to give Jones a few fits early on as he avoids any situation that looks like it could get him in trouble. Nevertheless, I’m going to pick Jones to win this title fight either in the third round or later.

Bones Jones has a 10-inch reach advantage and is the younger and stronger fighter in every phase of the fight game. Jones is the better stand-up striker – and ground-and-pound BJJ specialist, so unless Machida lands a luck punch or two, there’s just no way he can win this fight, either on the ground or standing up.

If you’ve followed me here at BetUS for the past few years, then you already know how I fell about Jon Bones Jones. If not, let me just say that Jones is so athletically gifted, I genuinely believe he’d succeed in the NFL, the NBA, Major League Baseball and hell, if you give him a pair of skates and a stick, he’d probably kick ass in hockey too.

The point is, Jon Bones Jones is just too good, too strong and too full of youthful exuberance to lose to anyone, lest a guy almost 10 years his senior, anytime soon.

Back my guy, Jon Bones Jones to get the third round KO (punches) or submission win.

UFC 140 Pick: Jon ‘Bones’ Jones by Third Round KO

UFC Odds
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +210
Frank Mir -280

Name: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Nickname: Minotauro
Record: 33 -6 -1  
Height: 6’3" (191cm)
Weight: 243lbs (111kg)
Age: 35
Country: Brazil

The Scoop: This Nogueira brother is coming off an exciting first round KO (punches) win over Brendan Schaub at UFC 134 in August, but has gone just 2-2 over his last four fights with losses to Mir and Cain Velasquez along the way. Nogueira has been knocked out twice, while suffering four decision losses.

Name: Frank Mir
Record: 15 – 5 – 0  
Height: 6’3" (191cm)
Weight: 260lbs (118kg)
Age: 32
Country: United States

The Scoop: Frank Mir has won two straight fights and beat veteran banger Roy Nelson on a unanimous decision at UFC 130 in May. Mir has a black belt in both, Kenpo Karate and BJJ. All five of Mir’s career losses have come by way of knockout.

Fight Prediction: Let me get right to the point here by saying that Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is in for a butt-whipping of epic proportions in this fight, mostly because Frank Mir’s pissed about having to even give the ‘Minotauro’ a rematch after beating the snot out of him three years ago in their UFC interim heavyweight title bout.

The younger Mir is much stronger than his opponent in this one and has some serious anger issues going for him that I believe will help him put away Nogueira in the second round, just like the last time they met at UFC 92 in December of 2008. Frank Mir got the win via second round TKO (punches) and that’s what I’m going with in this fight as well.

UFC 140 Pick: Frank Mir via second round TKO (punches)

UFC Odds
Tito Ortiz +165
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira -210

Name: Tito Ortiz
Nickname: Huntington Beach Bad Boy
Record: 16 – 9 – 1  
Height: 6’2" (188cm)
Weight: 205lbs (93kg)
Age: 36
Country: United States

The Scoop: The legendary Tito Ortiz was one of the early stars of mixed martial arts, but that’s clearly no longer the case.  Ortiz has lost four of his last five fights, including his second round TKO (knee and punches) loss to Rashad Evans at UFC 133 in August. Ortiz has been knocked out three times while suffering two submission losses and four losses via decision.

Name: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Nickname: Little Nog
Record: 19 – 5 – 0  
Height: 6’2" (188cm)
Weight: 206lbs (94kg)
Age: 35
Country: Brazil

The Scoop: This Nogueira brother is riding a two-fight losing streak that includes a unanimous decision loss to Phil Davis at UFC Fight Night in March. This Nogueira brother has suffered four decision losses in his career and just one KO loss.

Fight Prediction: As much as I’d like to see Tito Ortiz win this fight, his recent fight history is so poor and disturbing that I simply cannot advise any MMA betting gambler to back him in this fight against an Antonio Rogerio Nogueira that is going to desperate to win this fight.

Both of these guys are a bit over-the-hill at this point of their respective careers, so I guess anything is possible, but if you’ve seen Tito Ortiz recently, then you know he’s going to be in trouble in this fight.

Nogueira’s last two losses have come against top-notch fighters in Phil Davis and Ryan Bader – and that’s something that Tito Ortiz is no longer – elite.

Nogueria’s three-sided ability to win by KO, submission or going the distance will win out in the end in this matchup of aging fighters with a lot to lose.

Tito Ortiz doesn’t go down easily and has gone the distance in losing three of his last four fights, so I’m going to back ‘Little Nog’ in this one, via unanimous decision as he wears down Ortiz with his superior boxing.

This will be Ortiz’ third fight inside of six months – and although that would seem to indicate he’s finally healthy following some back issues, I believe three fights in such a short time span is a bit much, especially for a guy 36-years-old.

UFC 140 Fight Prediction: Antonio ‘Little Nog’ Nogueira via Unanimous Decision

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UFC Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale – Bisping vs. Miller

Okay BetUS mixed martial arts betting enthusiasts, the UFC will take center stage once again with this weekend when two veteran MMA bangers take to the octagon for the quickly-approaching finale for season 14 of the struggling television series The Ultimate Fighter.

TUF head coaches Jason “Mayhem” Miller and Michael Bisping will look to bring some pizzazz back to TUF when they square off in the main event of “The Ultimate Fighter 14″ Finale on Saturday at 8:00 PM ET, live from The Pearl at The Palms Casino and Hotel in Las Vegas on Spike TV.

With that said, let’s take a look at the odds and fighters in this matchup before I move on to offer up my expert MMA betting analysis and free TUF Finale free pick.

UFC Odds
Jason Miller +150
Michael Bisping -180

Name: Jason Miller
Nickname: Mayhem
Age: 30
Record: 23 – 7 – 0
Height: 6’0" (183cm)
Weight: 185lbs (84kg)
Birth Date: 1980-12-24
Country: United States

Breakdown: MMA veteran Jim Miller will make his UFC debut in this bout, but comes in riding a solid two-fight winning streak that includes an impressive first round submission (triangle choke) over Kazushi Sakuraba at Dream 16 in September of 2010.

Miller is a Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist that generally uses an unpredictable ‘wild man’ fighting style to baffle his opponents more often than not.

Miller’s lack of technical fighting skills has been more of a plus than a hindrance as he attacks with everything from straight punches and up-kicks to spinning back fists and vastly underrated submissions.

Miller has recorded a half-dozen KO wins in his career, 14 via submission and four by way of decision while also losing five decisions and suffering one KO and submission apiece.

Name: Michael Bisping
Nickname: The Count
Age: 32
Record: 21 – 3 – 0 
Height: 6’2" (188cm)
Weight: 185lbs (84kg)
Birth Date: 1979-02-28
Country: England

Breakdown: Michael Bisping has been on the cusp of greatness in the UFC for years but just hasn’t been able to take down the huge ‘big name’ opponent when he’s really needed to.

Still, the British-born banger has won three straight fights including his second round TKO (punches) win over Jorge Rivera at UFC 127 in February. The outcome of the bout was an extremely controversial one with Bisping landing an illegal knee on Rivera and then spitting in his corner’s direction once the fight was over.

Bisping specializes in boxing, wrestling and Muay Thai and has won 13 fights by KO with an identical four wins coming by way of decision and submission. Bisping has also been knocked out once while suffering two career decision losses.

Bisping is an all-around type of fighter that uses a multi-faceted skill set and some smart thinking to generally beat his opponents with a flurry of overpowering punches.

Fight Analysis: First and foremost BetUS MMA gamblers, you’ve got to love the drama surrounding this big-time pairing.

 “I’m going to do everything I can to smash Bisping,” Miller told reporters recently, but Bisping, the winner of “The Ultimate Fighter 3.” Way back in 2006, clearly doesn’t feel the same way.

“‘Mayhem’ thinks he’s coming into the UFC and he’s going to make a name on my back,” Bisping said. “He’s definitely insane if that’s what he thinks.”

In order for Jim Miller to win this fight, he’s clearly going to have to make this fight last the distance in my estimation.

Miller will need to turn this fight into more of a wrestling match and not a stand-up slugfest against a guy he can’t beat at that kind of fight. Miller will need to get in close and get Bisping in some clinches before going for one of his patented takedowns.

However, I just don’t see that happening against a disciplined Michael Bisping that has been in the octagon against some of the biggest names in mixed martial arts. Bisping’s three career losses have come against widely-respected MMA fighters, Wanderlei Silva, Dan Henderson and Rashad Evans, so that tells me that Jim Miller is going to have to put on one heck of a first-class performance in order to take Bisping out in this fight.

Miller isn’t a very highly-regarded stand-up fighter and I expect Michael Bisping to be very aggressive in this aspect of the fight with his stick-and-move boxing tactics.

Jason Miller also hasn’t fought very often recently and I’m fairly certain that the long layoff is going to come back to haunt him in this prime time matchup.

In the end, I say Michael Bisping wins this fight – and war of words – via unanimous decision to earn a likely shot at UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva.

TUF 14 Pick: Michael Bisping via Unanimous decision

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Bet on the UFC on FOX This Saturday Night

MMA gambling is back in the spotlight this weekend when the UFC takes its wildly popular – and massively growing mixed martial arts battles to FOX TV with Saturday night’s premiere event on the station.

That’s right MMA gamblers, when the UFC on Fox: Dos Santos vs. Velásquez takes place live from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, you’re going to get a trio of value-packed chances to cash in with another winning wager in what has been one of the most active – and popular – MMA years in recent memory.

With that said – and fight time quickly approaching, let’s get down to the business at hand, making more winning MMA wagers than ever!

UFC Odds
Junior Dos Santos +120
Cain Velasquez -150

Name: Junior dos Santos
Nickname: Cigano
Record: 13-1-0
Wins: 8
Losses: 1
Height: 6’4" (194cm)
Weight: 239lbs (109kg)
Age: 27
Country: Brazil

Analysis: Junior Dos Santos has won eight consecutive fights, including his unanimous decision win over Shane Carwin at UFC 131 in June. Dos Santos has recorded eight wins via KO, three more by submission and two by way of decision while suffering a submission loss back in 2007.

Name: Cain Velasquez
Record: 9-0-0
Wins: 8
Height: 6’1" (186cm)
Weight: 244lbs (111kg)
Age: 29
Country: United States

Analysis: Cain Velasquez is undefeated in his career – and more importantly – he’s knocked out eight of the nine fighters he’s ever faced in his blossoming MMA career. Velasquez has recorded consecutive first round KO wins, including his pounding over Brock Lesnar at UFC 121 in October of 2010.

Fight Analysis: I’m going to keep the prediction for this matchup short and sweet by simply saying that, while this matchup is going to be a knock-down, drag-out affair, I have to go with Junior dos Santos to get the win, in large part, because Cain Velasquez has not fought in just over a year and I believe the layoff will come back to haunt him in this matchup against another gifted fighter.

While Velasquez has shown incredible punching power, I haven’t seen much else from him at this juncture of his career and I believe the more experienced dos Santos will take advantage of his opponents’ lack of versatility. Not only that, but Junior dos Santos has plenty of punching power of his own, which is why I like him to take out Velasquez on a second round KO!
UFC Pick: Junior dos Santos by Second Round KO

UFC Odds
Clay Guida +210
Ben Henderson -280

Name: Clay Guida
Nickname: The Carpenter
Record: 29 – 11 – 0
Wins: 4
Losses: 6
Height: 5’7" (171cm)
Weight: 155lbs (71kg)
Age: 29
Country: United States

Name: Ben Henderson
Nickname: Smooth
Record: 14 – 2 – 0
Wins: 2
Losses: 1
Association: MMA Lab
Height: 5’9" (176cm)
Weight: 156lbs (71kg)
Age: 27
Country: United States

Fighter History: Clay Guida has won four straight fights, including his unanimous decision win over Anthony Pettis at the TUF 13 in June while Ben Henderson has won two consecutive fights, including his unanimous decision win over Jim Miller at UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle in August.

Fight Analysis: Just based on the fact that Henderson lost to Anthony Pettis back in December while Clay Guida beat Pettis in his last fight, leads me to believe that Ben Henderson could be in a spot of trouble against the more experienced Guida.

Both of these fighters lack punching power a bit, but Guida’s got the upper hand there. Both are also excellent submission tacticians, but again, the edge goes to Guida, if ever so slightly.

In the end, Clay Guida has a bit too much experience, to lose this bout, particularly to a gut he can’t stand and one that has been talking a ton of trash prior to this fight.

This matchup may not have a lot of fist-flying action, but I like Clay Guida to get the job done, likely by third round submission.

UFC Pick: Clay Guida via Third Round Submission

UFC Odds
Pablo Garza +250
Dustin Poirier -350

Name: Pablo Garza
Nickname: The Scarecrow
Record: 11 – 1 – 0
Height: 6’1" (186cm)
Weight: 145lbs (66kg)
Age: 27
Country: United States

Name: Dustin Poirier
Nickname: The Diamond
Record: 10 – 1 – 0 (Win – Loss – Draw)
Losses: 1 Decisions
Height: 5’9" (176cm)
Weight: 145lbs (66kg)
Age: 22
Country: United States

Fighter History: Pablo Garza has won two straight fights, including his highlight reel first round flying triangle choke out over Yves Jabouin at UFC 129 in April. Dustin Poirier has won three in a row since suffering his only defeat back in August of 2010. Poirier beat Jason Young on a unanimous decision at UFC 131 in June.

Fight Analysis: These two fighters may have nearly identical records, but I really like Pablo Garza to win this bout, mostly because I believe he is far more explosive and more multi-faceted at this juncture of his career, though Poirier does have more knockouts.

Ultimately, this fight will end up on the ground where I expect Garza to have the slight edge I what looks like a decision outcome waiting to happen.

It’s going to be a close affair, but in the end, I’m going with Pablo Garza to win this on a unanimous decision in the UFC on FOX on Saturday, November 12.

UFC Pick: Pablo Garza via Unanimous Decision

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Untitled Document

MMA gambling is back in the spotlight this weekend when the UFC takes its wildly popular – and massively growing mixed martial arts battles to FOX TV with Saturday night’s premiere event on the station.

That’s right MMA gamblers, when the UFC on Fox: Dos Santos vs. Velásquez takes place live from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, you’re going to get a trio of value-packed chances to cash in with another winning wager in what has been one of the most active – and popular – MMA years in recent memory.

With that said – and fight time quickly approaching, let’s get down to the business at hand, making more winning MMA wagers than ever!

UFC Odds
Junior Dos Santos +120
Cain Velasquez -150

Name: Junior dos Santos
Nickname: Cigano
Record: 13-1-0
Wins: 8
Losses: 1
Height: 6’4" (194cm)
Weight: 239lbs (109kg)
Age: 27
Country: Brazil

Analysis: Junior Dos Santos has won eight consecutive fights, including his unanimous decision win over Shane Carwin at UFC 131 in June. Dos Santos has recorded eight wins via KO, three more by submission and two by way of decision while suffering a submission loss back in 2007.

Name: Cain Velasquez
Record: 9-0-0
Wins: 8
Height: 6’1" (186cm)
Weight: 244lbs (111kg)
Age: 29
Country: United States

Analysis: Cain Velasquez is undefeated in his career – and more importantly – he’s knocked out eight of the nine fighters he’s ever faced in his blossoming MMA career. Velasquez has recorded consecutive first round KO wins, including his pounding over Brock Lesnar at UFC 121 in October of 2010.

Fight Analysis: I’m going to keep the prediction for this matchup short and sweet by simply saying that, while this matchup is going to be a knock-down, drag-out affair, I have to go with Junior dos Santos to get the win, in large part, because Cain Velasquez has not fought in just over a year and I believe the layoff will come back to haunt him in this matchup against another gifted fighter.

While Velasquez has shown incredible punching power, I haven’t seen much else from him at this juncture of his career and I believe the more experienced dos Santos will take advantage of his opponents’ lack of versatility. Not only that, but Junior dos Santos has plenty of punching power of his own, which is why I like him to take out Velasquez on a second round KO!
UFC Pick: Junior dos Santos by Second Round KO

UFC Odds
Clay Guida +210
Ben Henderson -280

Name: Clay Guida
Nickname: The Carpenter
Record: 29 – 11 – 0
Wins: 4
Losses: 6
Height: 5’7" (171cm)
Weight: 155lbs (71kg)
Age: 29
Country: United States

Name: Ben Henderson
Nickname: Smooth
Record: 14 – 2 – 0
Wins: 2
Losses: 1
Association: MMA Lab
Height: 5’9" (176cm)
Weight: 156lbs (71kg)
Age: 27
Country: United States

Fighter History: Clay Guida has won four straight fights, including his unanimous decision win over Anthony Pettis at the TUF 13 in June while Ben Henderson has won two consecutive fights, including his unanimous decision win over Jim Miller at UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle in August.

Fight Analysis: Just based on the fact that Henderson lost to Anthony Pettis back in December while Clay Guida beat Pettis in his last fight, leads me to believe that Ben Henderson could be in a spot of trouble against the more experienced Guida.

Both of these fighters lack punching power a bit, but Guida’s got the upper hand there. Both are also excellent submission tacticians, but again, the edge goes to Guida, if ever so slightly.

In the end, Clay Guida has a bit too much experience, to lose this bout, particularly to a gut he can’t stand and one that has been talking a ton of trash prior to this fight.

This matchup may not have a lot of fist-flying action, but I like Clay Guida to get the job done, likely by third round submission.

UFC Pick: Clay Guida via Third Round Submission

UFC Odds
Pablo Garza +250
Dustin Poirier -350

Name: Pablo Garza
Nickname: The Scarecrow
Record: 11 – 1 – 0
Height: 6’1" (186cm)
Weight: 145lbs (66kg)
Age: 27
Country: United States

Name: Dustin Poirier
Nickname: The Diamond
Record: 10 – 1 – 0 (Win – Loss – Draw)
Losses: 1 Decisions
Height: 5’9" (176cm)
Weight: 145lbs (66kg)
Age: 22
Country: United States

Fighter History: Pablo Garza has won two straight fights, including his highlight reel first round flying triangle choke out over Yves Jabouin at UFC 129 in April. Dustin Poirier has won three in a row since suffering his only defeat back in August of 2010. Poirier beat Jason Young on a unanimous decision at UFC 131 in June.

Fight Analysis: These two fighters may have nearly identical records, but I really like Pablo Garza to win this bout, mostly because I believe he is far more explosive and more multi-faceted at this juncture of his career, though Poirier does have more knockouts.

Ultimately, this fight will end up on the ground where I expect Garza to have the slight edge I what looks like a decision outcome waiting to happen.

It’s going to be a close affair, but in the end, I’m going with Pablo Garza to win this on a unanimous decision in the UFC on FOX on Saturday, November 12.

UFC Pick: Pablo Garza via Unanimous Decision

UFC 138 Betting Preview

This weekend’s upcoming UFC 138 card may not have many glamorous ‘big name’ fighters on the understated card, but that certainly doesn’t mean that BetOnline MMA gamblers will have a lack of opportunities to cash in.

As a matter of fact, just the opposite is true. Mixed martial arts fight gamblers will have more than their fair share of chances to cash in with potentially winning wagers when the event gets underway live from LG Arena in Birmingham, England on Saturday, Nov. 5 at 8:00 PM ET.

In the headline bout of the night, middleweights Chris Leben (22-7, 12-6 UFC) and Mark Munoz (11-2, 6-2 UFC)

UFC 138 Odds
Chris Leben +180
Mark Munoz -230

Chris Leben, who has recorded 12 of his 22 career wins by way of knockout, pounded the snot out of Wanderlei Silva at UFC 132 to get back in the win column following a loss in his previous fight. The explosive Leben stopped the Brazilian icon in a shocking 27 seconds. However, he should have a much tougher time in this middleweight showdown against Mark Munoz, winner of three straight fights, including his unanimous decision win over Demian Maia at UFC 131 in June. 

Brad Pickett (20-5, 0-0 UFC) vs. Renan Barao (26-1, 1 NC, 1-0 UFC)
This bantamweight matchup truly has the chance to be the best fight of the night with two gifted fighters with bright futures in front of them.

Pickett makes his UFC debut in this fight after beating Ivan Menjivar on a unanimous decision at WEC 53 last December. The highly touted Barao has not lost a single fight since losing his pro debut way back in 2005. The multi-faceted Brazilian also won his last fight via unanimous decision.

Thiago Alves (18-8, 10-5 UFC) vs. Papy Abedi (8-0, 0-0 UFC)
Veteran welterweight Thiago Alves has lost three of his last four fights, including his unanimous decision loss to Rick Story at UFC 130 in May.

Alves will battle an undefeated Papy Abedi as the aspiring youngster from Sweden makes his UFC debut. Adebi has muscles on top of his muscles and has finished off seven of his eight career opponents inside the distance.

Terry Etim (14-3, 5-3 UFC) vs. Eddie Faaloloto (2-2, 0-1 UFC)
Veteran lightweight Terry Etim had his four-fight win streak snapped by losing to Rafael Dos Anjos on a second round armbar submission at UFC 112 in April of 2010.

Eddie Faaloloto has lost two straight fights by way of TKO – in his WEC and UFC debuts, including his first round TKO (punches) loss to Michael Johnson, and no, I’m not talking about the retired former U.S. Olympic sprinter of the same name.

Cyrille Diabate (17-7-1) vs. Anthony Perosh (11-6)
Veteran light heavyweight Cyrille Diabate has won seven of his last eight fights, including his unanimous decision win over Steve Cantwell at UFC Live in March.

Anthony Perosh has alternated wins and losses over his last four fights but managed to beat Tom Blackledge on a rear naked submission choke at UFC 127 in February.  

Now, if you’re looking for my UFC 138 wagering selections, then my winners are:

Chris Leben, Renan Barao, Papy Abedi in the ‘upset’ of the night, followed by victories for both, Terry Etim and Cyrille Diabate.

UFC 137 Betting Preview

Thanks to this trio of expert MMA picks, BetOnline mixed martial arts gamblers everywhere will have an excellent chance to cash in with at least three potentially winning wagers when UFC 137 gets underway live from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas on Saturday, Oct. 29 at 9:00 PM ET.

UFC Odds
Nick Diaz +105
B.J. Penn -135

Nick Diaz
Record: 25 – 7 – 0

The Scoop: The red-hot Nick Diaz has won an even 10 straight fights coming into this bout, including his impressive first round TKO over Paul Daley to defend his Strikeforce welterweight title for the third time. Diaz has won 13 bouts by KO, eight by way of submission and four more via decision while losing two fights by knockout and five, via submission.

Name :B.J. Penn
Record: 16 – 7 – 2 

The Scoop: Former UFC lightweight title holder BJ Penn returned to the welterweight division and apparently it suited him just fine as he knocked out veteran banger Matt Hughes at just 21 seconds of the first round to record the Knockout of the Night at UFC 123 and get back in the win column following a pair of consecutive UFC lightweight title matchup losses to Frankie Edgar. Penn has recorded seven KO wins, six via submission and three more by way of decision while also suffering two KO losses and five decision losses in his career, identical loss totals as Diaz.

Fight Analysis: Both of these fighters are hostile, mobile and agile – not to mention seriously multi-faceted – but BJ Penn holds a serious edge in experience against quality fighters and that will be the difference in this prime time battle.

Penn looked very good in laying a shocking smackdown on Matt Hughes in his last bout, but it’s a bit tough to gauge how good he really was in just 21 seconds. Still, I like Penn to beat the younger Nick Diaz in this bout, likely on a submission or via a decision win. Either way, BJ Penn is the right pick to win.

UFC 137 Pick: BJ Penn

UFC Odds
Cheick Kongo +110
Matt Mitrione -140

Name: Cheick Kongo
Record: 16 – 6 – 2

The Scoop: Kongo pounded the snot out of Pat Barry at UFC Live in June to record the Knockout of the Night at 2:39 of the first round. The gifted physical specimen has recorded 10 KO wins, along with three submissions and decisions in his career. Kongo has also been on the wrong end of one knockout, one submission and four decision losses.

Name: Matt Mitrione
Record: 5 – 0 – 0

The Scoop: The blossoming Matt Mitrione remained unbeaten by knocking out Christian Morecraft at 4:28 of the second round at UFC Live in June and has now dispatched four of his five career opponents by way of knockout.

Fight Analysis: I’ve been really impressed with Matt Mitrione in his brief MMA career, but I’ve got to keep it real for BetOnline MMA gamblers  by saying that he certainly hasn’t faced a fighter of Cheick Kongo’s caliber.

While I’m surprised that Kongo has suffered some of the losses he has in what has been a very solid career, I don’t think Matt Mitrione is going to be able to withstand Kongo’s world class kickboxing skills. Matt Mitrione has shown himself to be a gifted puncher that is capable of flooring any fighter with just one punch, but Cheick Kongo is just a bit too good to get caught up in his web. I hate to disappoint Matt Mitrione fans everywhere, but he’s going to suffer his first career loss in this bout.

UFC 137 Pick: Cheick Kongo

UFC Odds
Mirko Filipovic +220
Roy Nelson -300

Name: Mirko Filipovic
Record: 27-9-2

The Scoop: Cro Cop Filipovic has lost two straight fights, including his third round KO loss to Brendan Schaub at UFC 128 in March. Cro Cop has also lost three of his last five fights overall. Filipovic has recorded 20 career wins via KO, four via submission and three more by way of decision. The big Croatian has also been handed four KO losses in his career to go along with two more, via submission and three by way of decision.

Name: Roy Nelson
Record: 15-6-0

The Scoop: Roy Nelson has also lost two consecutive fights, including his unanimous decision loss to veteran Frank Mir at UFC 130 in May. Nelson has recorded eight wins via KO, five by way of submission and two, via decision. Nelson has only been knocked out once in his career while suffering five decision losses along the way.

Fight Analysis: While both of these fighters have lost two straight fights coming into this matchup, I like Roy Nelson to win this fight after being on the wrong end of two straight unanimous decision losses.

While I’ve always like Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic (who doesn’t love that nickname?) the veteran fighter is clearly aging quickly and I just don’t have a lot of confidence in a gut that’s been knocked out cold in each of his last two fights. Basically, picking the winner of this fight involves backing the lesser of two evils – and that would be the slightly younger – and much more rotund – Roy Nelson, via third round KO.

UFC 137 Pick: Roy Nelson via Third Round KO

UFC 136: Edgar vs. Maynard 3

Frankie’s done this before, right?  The man had stunning battles with B.J. Penn and, now because UFC President Dana White and Joe Silva, UFC’s VP of Talent Relations and the outfit’s Matchmaker, are geniuses, Mr. Edgar faces Gray Maynard again.

Frankie only took on BJ twice during that rivalry. On Saturday, October 8, at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, Frankie Edgar takes on Gray Maynard for the third time.  If the third bout between the two is anything like the second bout, which Edgar won by split decision, expect a fourth bout.  Why not?  Edgar vs. Maynard has already made for two amazing battles and is a reason why the UFC and MMA continue to grow.

UFC 136 also heralds the return of the disgraced Chael Sonnen who hasn’t entered the Octagon since August 7, 2010, where he lost to Anderson Silva at UFC 117 and then tested positive for ‘roids.  Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian is also on the card.  Are you excited yet?

Below is a preview, with odds, of each of the four main card bouts.
 
Main Event

Gray Maynard +120 vs. Frank Edgar -150

Frankie out struck Maynard 95-to-71 in the second fight, as compared to 26-to-19 in their  2008 fight. Will Maynard be able to keep up with Frank’s standup in this bout?  I’m not so sure. Both of these guys have terrific ground games, although Gray’s game is slightly better. As a handicapper, I have to look at everything from an odds point-of-view, and the -30 spread between Maynard at +120 and Edgar at -150 is just too great. The spread should be -20 or less for this fight.  Gray is an overlay. That makes him the bet in this fight.

Main Card

Kenny Florian +240 vs. Jose Aldo -320

Aldo is such a huge favorite in this fight because he’s one of those amazingly difficult fighters to defend against.  The dude is a trained Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master but has also developed an awesome striking game similar to fellow Brazilian Maurico Rua. Aldo produced 77 strikes versus 20 for opponent Urijah Faber at WEC 48 and 94 strikes to Mark Hominick’s 71 at UFC 129.  Ken-Flo’s got a 3” height advantage over Aldo and may try to use it in the stand-up, but poor Kenny just doesn’t have the striking game.  It’s a tough bout to call because Ken-Flo will be the bigger man on Saturday, but it’s hard to go against Aldo. So, I won’t and neither will my money.

Brian Stann +200 vs. Chael Sonnen -260

Stann is no joke of a fighter.  He destroyed Mike Massenzo at UFC Live back on August 1, 2010, scoring 43 strikes to 5, and 5 takedowns to 0.  He pummeled Chris Leben at UFC 125, producing a Round 1 KO and knocked out Jorge Santiago in Round 2. Of course Massenzo, Leben and Santiago are no Chael Sonnen. Sure, Sonnen was on ‘roids at UFC 117 but he was dominating Anderson Silva before the very end where Sonnen supposedly tapped out.  The man still has heart, and neither the layoff nor a ‘roids test can take that away. With such a deep resume and drive to win Chael should win this fight.

Joe Lauzon +250 vs. Melvin Guillard -350

Melvin “The Little Assasin” Guillard has won 5 bouts in a row, with 4 out of those 5 by KO.  His last loss was in 2009 via submission to the fantastic Nate Diaz. Guillard is a menacing striker and as fast as ever. Lauzon, who only strikes 11% of the time, has lost 2 out of his last 4 fights, to Sam Stout and George Sotiropolous. He’s not nearly as fast, or as strong, as Guillard. Look for Melvin to put Lauzon on the ground and KO him with a blistering attack in either Round 1 or Round 2 of this fight.