Champs Sports Bowl – #24 Badgers and #14 Hurricanes Brawl for it All

Champs Sports Bowl – Badgers (+3½) vs. Hurricanes

(O/U) 57
Tuesday, December 29 – 8:00 PM ET

Key Trends

• Badgers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
• Badgers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
• Hurricanes are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Hurricanes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.
• Over is 4- 0 in Badgers last 4 games overall.
• Under is 6- 1 in Hurricanes last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Wisconsin Badgers (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 8-4 O/U) and Miami Hurricanes (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 O/U) will both be looking to finish off their respective 2009 seasons with a victory when they take to the gridiron at the Florida Citrus Bowl in the Champs Sports Bowl tonight at 8 PM ET.

Let’s take a look at both teams, before I provide my expert college football analysis on the outcome of this contest.

Wisconsin 411

The Badgers come into tonight’s contest having won four of its last five games including a convincing 51-10 smackdown of Hawaii in their regular season finale on Dec. 5.

John Clay ran for 172 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 14 win to help Wisconsin cover the college football point spread as 12.5-point road favorites.

Led by its bruising rushing attack, Wisconsin averaged a robust 39.0 points per game over its last five games. Clay, the Big Ten offensive player of the year, rushed for nine touchdowns over the last five contests and ran for 1,369 yards and 16 TD’s on the season.

Wisconsin ranked 14th in the nation in rushing at 206.7 yards per game and enters this Champs Sports Bowl matchup looking to win 10 games for the first time since going 12- 1 in 2006.

The Badgers also want to get back in the bowl game win column after getting spanked in the 2008 Champs Sports Bowl, 42-13 to Florida State.

“(That loss) really left a bad taste in our mouth," defensive back Chris Maragos said. “The whole offseason we wanted to prepare and make sure that didn’t happen again. … We put ourselves in the position to redeem ourselves.”

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Miami 411

Miami also finished the regular season strong, going 4-1 SU in their last five games, beating South Florida 31-10 win in Week 13 while covering the college football point spread as a 3.5-point road favorite.

Miami began the season unranked, but quickly jumped to ninth in the nation after a pair of opening wins over ranked opponents – the first time the Hurricanes were ranked in the top 10 since the final regular-season poll of 2005.

Miami has improved its record in three straight seasons under head coach Randy Shannon and will be looking to record its first 10-win season since 2003.

"It shows that coach (Randy) Shannon is really taking the time to put a lot into the team, and it has progressed since he has been here the last three years," sophomore quarterback Jacory Harris said.

After a one-year absence from bowl play, the Hurricanes lost to California 24- 17 in last year’s Emerald Bowl.

Miami averaged a whopping 31.7 points this season and allowed just 22.3 points per contest and held three of its final four opponents to fewer than 20 points while giving up an average of just 264.0 total yards over those four games.

Harris ranked 15th in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 3,164 passing yards and tossed had 23 touchdowns this season but also tied for the most interceptions in the nation with 17.

The Hurricanes won’t have star left tackle Jason Fox due to a knee injury that required surgery.

Analysis: Miami and Wisconsin both averaged more than 30.0 points per game this season and allowed just over 22 points per game defensively. The Badgers were better at forcing turnovers with a plus-6 margin, while the Hurricanes are at minus-2.

These two teams are so evenly matched, this selection ultimately boils down to which team bettors prefer.

Personally, I don’t think the Badgers have the athleticism to keep up with Miami’s collections of speedy wideouts and running backs.

College football betting enthusiasts should know that the Badgers have gone just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog ad 1-6 ATS against a team with a winning record. I also don’t like the fact that Wisconsin averaged just 18 points per game in its three losses.

The Hurricanes have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games and have fared very well against good teams, going a solid 5-2 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Miami has also gone an impressive 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and scored over 24 points in two of its three losses this season while averaging 22.6 points per game in those losses.

With a ground-based offensive attack, I think the Badgers may find it hard to catch up to the pass-first Hurricanes if they fall into an early hole. With the Over going 4- 0 in Wisconsin’s last four games, I also like the Over to play out again tonight.

NCAAF Expert Picks: Miami -3½ Points/Over 57 Total Points