Davis Cup Betting: Serbia favourites in the Futures market

The World Group, First Round of the Davis Cup by PNB Paribas is almost upon as the Futures markets are buzzing with props on the 16 nations involved. Serbia interestingly is marginally favoured, listed at +275, over defending champion Spain that carries a price of +300. I can see why in some respects the market cast is so lopsided. Two words, Novak Djokovic. Together with another few words, Rafael Nadal is out – for now at least from Spain’s national team as he is ongoing struggle with knee tendinitis continues in earnest.

But Davis Cup action is a team effort and not an individual effort. Just because Djokovic is the world No.2 player right now and after a title victory in Dubai should not account for such favouritism.

Take Switzerland for example, claiming world No.1 Roger Federer as a member of their squad. We all know how great Federer is, so no need to rattle of his list of accomplishments, but even with him on the roster, albeit a peek-a-boo appearance that it is, Switzerland has not won Davis Cup. The closest they came to the title was in 1992 when they lost 3-1 to USA and Federer did not even feature at that time. Wasn’t even on the pro Tour was he.

An even better indication of how little an individual can affect the measure of a national team is the rankings. Switzerland is ranked 12th in the standings and they have Federer – a player, arguably the greatest of all time (GOAT).

Speaking of rankings, Serbia, the short-odds-on-favourites (right?) to win the Davis Cup title are ranked 13th, that is a ranking below Switzerland. Spain are the top ranked team, followed by the USA, Russia, Czech Republic and Argentina – to round of the top five. The top four after Spain are offered in the market, in order of ranking as follows: USA +1200, Russia +650, Czech Republic +700 and Argentina +550.

Any tennis betting fan thinking the market is out of whack a bit can’t be faulted. I certainly think so. It seems the bookies are not fussed on the whole team aspect of the competition, rather they chose to reward outfits that boast top players with inflated odds. Don’t be misled.

Bettors have two options, follow the market trend or think outside the box. The latter is the method to the madness I would recommend. Look at the whole team roster, determine which outfit has the more balanced and complete team.

To do so now, surely Spain comes up with full marks. Featuring David Ferrer, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Feliciano Lopez, Tommy Robredo and Rafael Nadal. Spain has the most depth. Adding to the team’s shine is the fact that the first quartet of players are champions on the season already, accounting for five titles combined. Also, keep in mind, in 2009, the same group of players combined to beat Serbia 4-1 in the first round.

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In contrast, Serbia made up of Nenad Zimonjic, Janko Tipsarevic, Novak Djokovic, Ilija Bozoljac and Viktor Troicki, falls short on many scores. Firstly, Tipsarevic and Troicki are streaky players at best and not exactly clutch players, so if a tie came down to their performance it would be a tossup at best. Secondly, Djokovic, who I believe accounts for the bookies price hike on Serbia in the market and though indisputably a huge talent, has been largely unsuccessful when representing his nation. Last season, Djokovic went 0-2 in Davis Cup action. A hefty charge against his top pretensions indeed. The only point of strength on Serbia’s team is in doubles action, lead by Nenad Zimonjic who went 2-0 last season.

Switzerland, offered at the correct price of +1200, is made up of Roger Federer, Marco Chiudinelli, Yves Allegro, Michael Lammer and Stanislas Wawrinka. In 2008, in spite of the notable names of Federer and Wawrinka on the roster, Switzerland went 3-0 and in 2009, they went 1-1 overall.

Czech Republic, carrying a price of +700, finished runner-up last year. Most don’t expect Czech Republic to replicate what was a rather impressive charge, led by the two-punch of Radek Stepanek and Tomas Berdych, this year. Aside from these two, well- known, top 30 players that have represented their nation admirably the Czech Republic taken as a whole has many weaknesses, going by the names of Jan Hernych, Lukas Dlouhy… who? That is right.

The same could be said of the United States that is made stronger by Andy Roddick when he participates in a tie but severely weakened when he skips a tie. Roddick was the driving force in United States’ 2008 Davis Cup victory. Sans Roddick, the combined force of Blake and Fish is as exciting as beer coasters. Sorry. Perhaps Isner and Querrey, joining the team would add some pizzazz but even with them on board, USA would be long shots.

The dark horse of the tournament has to be Croatia, offered at +1000 in the market. When it comes to balance, Croatia has it. They have a big name in Marin Cilic, experience in Ivo Karlovic and Ivan Ljubicic, and untapped talent in Mario Ancic. Additional members Roko Karanusic and Lovro Zovko are the weakest links but that should not necessarily take away from the team as whole. Their run will depend on how hot Cilic, Karlovic and Ljubicic are as well as the calibre of the opposite nation they draw.

France and Russia, listed only a hairbreadth apart at +600 and +650, also have quality players on their rosters that could make a difference. Davydenko and Youzhny are both in form and they will be huge assets for team Russia. France’s Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon, Michael Llodra and Jeremy Chardy is perhaps one of the most well rounded teams, not unlike Spain. They had a disappointing turnout last year but could come together well this year.

Total outsiders are Belgium +10000, Israel +15000, Ecuador +17500 and India +25000. Middle of the table: Germany +2500, Sweden +4000 and Chile +5000

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