EPL Betting: Hull City vs. Chelsea

The weekend instalment of EPL Betting kicks off with two sides at opposite ends of the table in Hull City vs. Chelsea FC. The Blues are in pole position at the start of the second half of the season but Man U are nipping at their heels, two points adrift at 43 points (after 20 cycles). Hull City, on the other hand, are four points clear of bottom of the table Portsmouth, in 19th spot on 18 points after 20 cycles.

Because the two outfits are enjoying different realities, the market on this match is entirely one-sided. Chelsea FC – surprise, surprise – are overwhelmingly favoured to take all three points in this clash. Hull City are consequently massively disadvantaged and you don’t have to be an expert to conclude they will not be looking to get three big points here – at least, nobody expects they will runaway with such a coup.

Soccer Betting Line:

Hull +1½ -125 +900 2½ O -120 U Ev ½ O -120 U Ev Draw +360
Chelsea -1½ +105 -300 2½ O -120 U Ev 2 O -105 U -115 Draw +360

Match Time: 07:45 A.M. Eastern Time Saturday January 8, 2010

Soccer Betting Verdict: Chelsea FC is trading at -300 at BetOnline Sportsbook, a price-point that suggests a bet on them will have a high percentage conversion. With such a vote of confidence, the downside is that soccer bettors will not be making a huge return, but a decent one no less. If you are good at maths, fractions specifically, you are looking at fractional odds of 1/3, which translates to ‘3-to-one on’ favourites and at least a 30% return on your stake (plus your stake back).

Hull City are discouragingly set at +900 at BetOnline Sportsbook (what would be a 9/1 fraction for you European footballers out there). The chances they will punch above their weight class are nominal and the chances soccer bettors would see this is ‘1-in-ten against’ bet win is about a 10% shot. With a low conversion percentage like this, I would (lightly) recommend this bet only to those that are not risk averse. The rest of you shouldn’t go near this play.

The better value plays in this match can be found in the totals. Look at the combined totals of Over 2 ½ -120 – the expectation is that the Blues will come racing out of the blocks in this first week to put distance between them and Man U. They want these three points desperately and lots of goals would go a long way to ensuring that objective is reached by the end of 90 minutes. The other thinking behind this play is the fact that Hull City are defensively the worst in the league right now. Translation: porous backline.

Conversely, Hull City have managed to score at Kingston Comms Stadium regularly this season. And with low team totals set at ½ Over -120, a bet on those odds might not go amiss.

Half time Betting Line:

Hull +½ -105 +500 1 O -125 U +105 Draw +150
Chelsea -½ -115 -115 1 O -125 U +105 Draw +150

The half time market offers value as well. Chelsea FC is well priced at -115 to take the lead into the locker room and Hull City are tempting on the handicap, +1/2 -105.

To Score First:

Hull +200
Chelsea -300

Given all the above, soccer bettors have to fancy Chelsea to open the scoring at -300. Similar to their win outright odds, it is an almost lock but nothing to write home about.