Europa League Betting: Genoa vs. Valencia

Valencia FC lead Group B with nine points, but they are not certain of advancement just yet. Lille and Genoa, currently second and third, respectively, are level on points and only two points adrift of Valencia. Indeed, Group B is wide open for the taking and if Genoa beat Valencia and Lille beat Slavia Praha (the other match in the same section), then it would be the end of the road for the current group leaders.

Whichever way you slice this match, it is a must win; making it perhaps the most compelling encounter of Group B.

Soccer Betting Line:

Genoa pk -120 +150 2½ O -110 U -120 Draw +225
Valencia pk -110 +160 2½ O -110 U -120 Draw +225

Match Time: 01:00 PM Eastern Time Thursday December 17, 2009

Soccer Betting Verdict:When the sides first met on match day 2, the Spanish outfit won 3:2. The victory extended Valencia’s undefeated run to two matches after drawing against Lille on opening night 1:1. Valencia missed a huge chance in Prague to take all three points when they settled for a 2:2 draw after being up two-goals in the first 50 minutes of the match. In completely uncharacteristic lack of focus, the Spaniards allowed a ten man Slavia Praha storm back with two goals in the last eleven minutes of the match and take a share of the spoils. But Valencia was not about to be lackadaisical twice in a row as they took care of matters against Lille convincingly on match day 3, beating the French outfit 3:1 at home.

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Genoa are in third place with a real shot at advancing into the last 32. They are level on points with second place Lille and two points adrift of Valencia. A win over Valencia would surely see them through to the knock out stages. Genoa have compiled a 2-1-2 mark in the Group stage, which includes their dramatic victory over Lille on match day 3 – a late equalizer that breathed life into their campaign. Genoa could have advanced their bid on match day four but a stoic Slavia Praha thwarted their ambitions as they grinded to a scoreless draw.

Soccer Free Picks: This match is tough to call for various reasons. Valencia have the slight disadvantage playing away from home – in their last two away fixtures in Europe, they managed only a draw. They will have to come up with a victory to be sure of survival in the competition and a top spot finish. In that, there is incentive and they certainly are a side capable of victory. They beat Genoa on match day 2, making them a good bet at +160 to win outright.
The market tips this match rather close, with Genoa at +150. Which means this match could end in a draw – but as the result would be detrimental to Genoa’s European bid expect the Italians to go after the win as well.

In the end, the value bet is the scoreline. Neither side will want to risk too much but at the same time they will not want to be caught out sleeping at the helm. Over 2.5 goals -110 is the pick.