Football Spread Says that Da Bears Blast the Browns

The NFL football spread in the sportsbook says that the Chicago Bears should blast the Cleveland Browns on Thursday, September 2nd.

Okay, maybe the word “blast” is a bit harsh. The Bears are only favored by 3 points and the Browns are at +3 -120, instead of +3 -110, meaning that the odds makers obviously feel that the Browns could upset the Bears against the spread in this game.

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Cleveland hasn’t been too bad during the preseason although they have lost 2 out of 3 games.  The Bears have lost all 3 of their NFL preseason games but reputation goes a long way in the NFL and the Bears have the better reputation.

Will the Bears reputation translate into a victory against the football game spread?

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns

Where:  Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
When:  September 2nd, 2010 at 8:00 pm EST
TV:  FOX, WKYC
Radio:  Sirius – 156 (CLE)

NFL Betting Lines

Chicago Bears                         -3 +100            O 36 ½  -110

Cleveland Browns                  -3 -120             U 36 ½  -110

The football spread tells us that neither the Bears nor the Browns are an optimum pick to cover in this game.

If the Bears were a “big favorite” ATS, then they’d be going off at -3 -110 instead of -3 +100.  Risking -120 in order to get 3 points on the home team in an NFL Preseason game just doesn’t appeal to me.

But this is no regular season NFL Preseason game.  The Browns and Bears almost always face each other in the final preseason game and each time…well, each time things appear to be different than the time before.

In 2006, Cleveland lost to Chicago 20 to 7.  In 2007, Cleveland beat Chicago 19 to 9.  In 2008, Cleveland lost to Chicago 16 to 10.  Then last season the Browns lost again to Chicago 26 to 23.

The crazy thing is that in 2009 the Chicago Bears went into their final NFL Preseason game having won their last 2 games. Not so this season. This season, the Bears have lost 3 preseason games in a row while Cleveland has lost 2 in a row after beating the Green Bay Packers in the first NFL Preseason game 27 to 24. 

What does all of these stats mean?  Absolutely nothing when it comes to the football spread. There just isn’t enough data to tell us whether or not the Browns are a better wager ATS or the Bears are a better wager ATS.  There isn’t enough data to tell us whether or not the Browns will put up points and the Bears won’t or the Bears will put up points and the Browns won’t or neither team will put up points.

In other words, a strong opinion can’t really be made on any wager being offered in the sportsbook, hence, the strange against the spread betting line.

What should a sports gambler do when he can’t make a real opinionated wager based on facts?  Well, he should go with the wager that offers the best value.  Since I don’t have a strong opinion on what might happen in this game, I’m going to back the Bears at -3 +100.  To me, the Bears could definitely cover the spread in this game and +100 is much more favorable to my bankroll than -120.

That’s the football prediction I’m going with.  The Bears to cover the spread.

NFL Betting Pick:  Chicago Bears -3 +100

Sources:  espn.com, tsn.com, covers.com, nfl.com