Friday Night Lights – New England Patriots vs. Washington Redskins

New England Patriots (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) at Washington Redskins (1-1 SU & ATS)

Friday, August 28

BetOnline NFL Odds: NEW ENGLAND -3, Total 37.5

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Here are some of the NFL pro football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• NE has lost five of its last six pre-season games SU
• NE is 0-6 ATS in its last six pre-season games
• NE is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six pre-season road games
• WASH has covered two of its last six pre-season games
• WASH has won its four of its last five pre-season home games SU
• WASH has played six of its last seven pre-season home games UNDER the total

New England lost all of its pre-season games a year ago, but as we know, the third exhibition game is usually the one where starters get the most time and show the most interest, and in the three seasons from 2005-2007 New England won that particular game three times by a total of 82 points. The difference between those games and last year’s game is that Tom Brady didn’t throw a pass in Game 3 of last year’s pre-season.

We say some of this because when you look at what the Pats have done, it doesn’t look like they are overly concerned about winning anything in the pre-season. That is understandable, because if there is one coach who knows it doesn’t count until the regular season bell rings, it’s Bill Belichick.

Brady wants to play in these pre-season games, though. He thinks it’s essential for someone at his position. “We don’t get live reps in practice like the other guys do. At the other positions in practice, they go live. Anybody gets anywhere near the quarterback and everything stops, so you don’t get a real look at the speed of things." He also believes that for someone like him, who is coming off an injury, he needs to experience the feeling of defenders coming at him to make himself more comfortable going back into the pocket. He has been under center for only nine snaps in the pre-season.

The Redskins did well in beating Pittsburgh last week, bouncing back from a complete lay down against the Ravens the week before, but the work they got from Jason Campbell was non-existent. Campbell was just one-for-seven for ten yards and the talk is how he has been affected by all that talk in the off-season about dealing for other quarterbacks, including Jay Cutler. Colt Brennan made another bad decision on his interception, and the most impressive QB for them was Chase Daniel, who was fourth on the depth chart at the outset of camp but came in and threw for two TD’s in the second half against Pittsburgh.

Coach Jim Zorn will feel compelled to use Campbell for at least the first two quarters of this game, but one has to wonder whether he has a true grasp of Zorn’s offense. This could be bad news for the ‘Skins if Brady and the Pats show up motivated. We’re going to lay the points with New England, the three-point favorite in the NFL pre-season football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: NEW ENGLAND -3 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)