Home Run Derby Betting – Who Will Win The Derby?

The 2010 Home Run Derby in Anaheim is filled with new faces and the return of an old slugger. Five of the eight contestants are making their derby-debut, including three representing the National League. Corey Hart, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young, Vernon Wells and Nick Swisher are all first-timers, while former derby-stalwart David Ortiz makes his return from a four year absence. Rounding out the field are Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera and Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday. Missing from the bunch is current MLB home run leader Jose Bautista. The Blue Jay was chosen to represent the AL in the All-Star game (mainly because of his league-leading 24 home runs), but strangely was not asked to participate in the home run derby. A peculiar omission indeed.
  
Home Run Derby Betting
Monday, July 12th – 8:00 PM EST
Broadcast: ESPN  

The Favorite: Miguel Cabrera +250

It’s hard to pick a favourite in a crapshoot like the derby, but Cabrera may be the closest to a favourite in the bunch. The man can just smack balls out of the park, as evident by his 22 home runs in the first half. This is his second appearance at a home run derby, and in 2006 he made it to the second round. And out of all the contestants Cabrera has hit more regular season home runs in the past three years, making it a very good possibility he’ll knock out a few on Monday. Again, nothing is certain in a home run derby, but Cabrera is probably the best bet to go all the way.  

The Longshot: Vernon Wells +650

Every year someone from the field makes noise when nobody expected too. I think out of all of the newcomers, Vernon Wells has the ability to be like Garret Anderson and Miguel Tejada and shock the rest of the field on his way to victory. Wells has 19 home runs this season, a year removed from topping out at a paltry 15. He’s motivated to prove he’s back to being an elite player, and the national stage of the home run derby is a good place to start. As well, Vernon has a swing that fits the host stadium; most of his home runs are hit out to left field, which has the shortest distance to the plate at Angel Stadium. There are legitimate reasons why Vernon Wells would be a smart longshot pick.  

Best Value: David Ortiz +250

David Ortiz is probably the only lock to do well in this tournament. He may not win it all, but his past experience in home run derby’s will help Ortiz at least get out of the opening round. Ortiz knows how a derby works; he knows the correct timing, when to press, etc. The newcomers won’t know how to handle it as well as Big Papi. He probaby won’t win (stamina issues), but he’s the safest bet to at least get out of the first round.  

Home Run Derby Betting Prediction

I’m going boring and picking the favourite. This isn’t a very strong field and many of the contestants look like they can flame out very quickly. Cabrera is a great home run hitter and will be looking to improve on his second-round exit last time around. He’s the best pure hitter in the entire tournament.

Home Run Derby Betting Pick: Miguel Cabrera