Horse Matchup LOCK ALERT – Hollywood Park Race 8

Race-day:  5/13/2009

Race-time:  7:38 pm est.

The BetOnline Racebook offers something that horseplayers absolutely have to take advantage of.  That would be making wagers on Dailey Horse Matchups.

Why is it important for horse racing players to take advantage of this unique opportunity?  Because it’s always easier to beat one horse than it is to beat 4, 5 or 6 horses in any given race.  Also, the odds on the horses that bettors can expect to receive are usually almost always fair.

Let’s take a look at the best Daily Horse Matchup for Wednesday’s Race 8 at Hollywood Park.

Pediatrics -150 vs. Sun Lighting +120

Analysis:  Pediatrics is a 5/2 favorite on the morning line in this race for the simple fact that she is dropping out of a $46,000 maiden special weight race into this $25,000 maiden claimer.

Whenever horseplayers see such a drop, they have to assess a couple of things.  The first is whether or not the drop is intentional.  In this case, it appears that the drop is in fact intentional because Pediatrics has been working steadily since his last race on March 13th.  The second is whether or not the drop is going to help.  That’s a more difficult question to answer.  The drop should definitely help but not because Pediatrics is simply dropping.  Pediatrics also gets Rafael Bejarano to take the call.  Bejarano is winning at 28% at this meet.

Now, let’s take a quick look at Sun Lightning.  On paper, Sun Lightning should beat Pediatrics because Sun Lightning appears to be the faster horse.  Sun Lightning has been a stayer in her past races, much like Pediatrics, but this race sets up differently for him.  Sun Lightning busted a fantastic 5 furlong work on May 2nd in 58 and change.  It was the fastest of 35 works at that distance.  Since Danny Sorenson takes the call, a well known front-running jockey, there is no doubt that Sun Lightning will go for the lead in this.

So, now the race comes down to one question, will Sun Lightning be able to hang on in the lane while Pediatrics a dropper with the best jockey on the grounds on her back, runs at him?

From my perspective, the answer is no.  Sun Lightning is obviously going to go for the lead in this as evidenced by that phenomenal work on May 2nd.  He keeps his front-running jockey, gets the right pace set-up as there is no true front-runner in this race and should be able to lead these to the finish line on a track that favors consistent speed from the beginning of a race to the end.  Sorenson should put her on the lead and then coast to the finish line while Pediatrics will have to hustle through and around horses to get to the end of this race.

And, Sun Lighning is going off at the better odds.  I’ll be making a nice, sizable wager on Sun Lightning to simply beat Pediatrics in this horse matchup.

Pick:  Sun Lightning at +120