LeBron’s Decision: What It Means For the Eastern Conference

It’s one thing to talk about the Miami Heat, the franchise that’s a few good role players away from being the Eastern Conference favorite. What about the other teams that are competing with Miami for supremacy in the East, and a likely date with the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2011 NBA Finals?

The team in the East that has naturally taken the biggest tumble, and therefore cannot be expected to compete for a championship, is Cleveland. The Cavaliers depended too much on James for their offensive production in the first place, so with LeBron James no longer around, it’s going to be a work in progress for the Cavs to reclaim a lofty place in the standings. There just isn’t enough star quality to compensate for King James’ absence. Perhaps the team chemistry and balance will improve, but this team’s firepower isn’t lethal anymore. Dan Gilbert – who ripped LeBron in a memorably scathing letter late Thursday night – will need to work doubly hard to bring in a quality supporting cast for his remaining players. All in all, the Cavs are behind the eight ball.

The Atlanta Hawks have basically taken themselves out of the running for the Eastern Conference crown. This franchise has made no significant moves, save for the absurd max-deal signing of free agent guard Joe Johnson. The contract was pegged at roughly $123 million, a terrible waste of money for a player who can be brilliant at times, but is also a streaky shooter and a man whose defense is less than imposing, to put it charitably. Johnson –  the big name kept in the Atlanta stable – will eat up so much cash that the Hawks can’t do much else in the marketplace. Johnson is hardly worthy of a max deal, and he sits on a team that embarrassed itself with its lay-down-and-die “performance” in the second round of the 2010 playoffs against the Orlando Magic. The Hawks –  like the Milwaukee team they barely beat in round one of the NBA postseason this past spring – won’t be able to penetrate the upper tier of the East.

If one wanted to pick the four best teams in the East at this point in time, the likely quartet would be Chicago, Orlando, Boston and Miami. Chicago owns a terrific blend of pieces and sports the blessing of an elite point guard in Derrick Rose. However, Chicago will be undersized, and it remains to be seen if the Bulls’ wings can handle a LeBron-Wade combo from Miami Heat or Orlando’s army of 3-point shooters. Orlando’s big trump card is Dwight Howard, who can be contained by Boston and Chicago but will run wild against a Miami team that currently lacks a beefy big man. Boston is experienced and deep, but the Celtics lose their defensive architect, Tom Thibodeau, who is now coaching the Bulls. Moreover, Boston’s old lineup isn’t getting fresher; any injury concerns would sink the Celtics’ ship.

In many ways, the East will likely depend on matchups. If Miami can avoid Orlando, it will be in good shape. If Chicago can avoid Miami, it will have to like its chances more. If Boston manages to find itself in the half of the bracket that’s opposite Chicago, it will sigh in relief. If Orlando avoids its nemesis from Boston, it will have reason to smile. In all likelihood, Chicago’s not powerful enough and Orlando showed too much mental weakness this past spring against Boston. The Celtics probably deserve to remain the favorite by a scant margin over Miami, but that could change if the Heat’s supporting cast for the Big Three turns out to be better than expected.