Manning’s Colts Survive Surge by Sanchez to Win AFC

The Colts are going to the Super Bowl XLIV 2010, thanks to a resounding win over the New York Jets in the AFC Championship game. It should come as no surprise to the betting community, which watched the betting line dance all over the place right up until kick off. Indianapolis was the better team, with more experience at this stage in the season, and it showed on Sunday. The 30-17 victory by Indianapolis, however, didn’t come easy.

I touted the Colts as solid betting favorites in the UNDER largely because I vastly underestimated the swagger and poise of Mark Sanchez. Yet throwing 17-for-30, 257 yards and 2 touchdowns, Sanchez used some trickery to put the Colts on their heels. Two second quarter touchdown throws to wide open Braylon Edwards and barely covered Dustin Keller showed that the kid had the moxy to show up in a big game and produce when it mattered. By the end of the first half, the Jets were holding on to a 17-13 lead that had everyone who had taken the UNDER sweating. Those that had the Colts by the eight-point betting line were panicking.

Then Indy caught a break – literally. Shonn Greene broke to the outside for a run early in the third quarter but suffered a rib injury that kept him out of the rest of the game. Up until that point, Greene had been giving the Colts fits on the ground, averaging 4.1 yards per carry and keeping the defense honest against fellow rookie, Dirty Sanchez.

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Thomas Jones received all of the carries from that point in, and proved exactly why he won’t be around in New York next season. Jones had 16 carries for 42 yards and was unable to inspire the Jets offense down the field, or keep the Colts defense from dropping guys back in coverage.

That means that the game was in the hands of New York’s top-ranked defense, which had previously allowed just 14.3 points per game including the playoffs. Then again, they were going up against perhaps the greatest quarterback in history in Peyton Manning who took the challenge and began rolling hot and heavy, much to the delight of those that took the Colts on the betting line. Peyton ended the game 26-of-39 for 377 yards and 3 touchdowns leading two touchdown drives and a late field goal by Matt Stover which put the game out of reach.

It’s very difficult to say what would’ve happened had Shonn Greene stayed healthy in the game. What is safe to say, however, is that the AFC East now has a rightful heir to the throne held so steadfastly by the New England Patriots. All that’s really left for the Jets is to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump amongst Greene, Sanchez and their rookie head coach, Rex Ryan.

Now 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games, the Colts will enter just their second Super Bowl since they migrated from Baltimore. Their challenge will be the Saints, and the Colts have already been pegged as -4.0 point favorites, but the line has already moved even more towards Indianapolis. To get there, they beat the number one defense in the league. To hoist Peyton’s’ second trophy, they’ll not only have to beat his father’s former team, they’ll have to beat the best offense in the NFL this season.