McGrady’s out for the Year – Portland at Houston

NBA Basketball Sports Betting

Portland Trail Blazers (35-20 SU, 28-27 ATS) at Houston Rockets (35-21 SU, 26-29-1 ATS)

Tuesday, February 24

BetOnline NBA Betting Odds:  HOUSTON -4.5, Total 191

Here are some of the NBA betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• PORT has won five of its last six games SU
• PORT has covered four of its last 16 road games
• PORT has lost four of its last six road games SU
• PORT has played five of its last seven road games OVER the total
• HOU has covered four of its last six games
• HOU has won five of its last six games SU
• HOU has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• HOU has covered four of its last five home games
• HOU has won its last seven home games SU
• HOU has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

Also…

• HOU has won five of the last six meetings SU
• Seven of the last ten meetings have gone UNDER the total
• HOU has covered four of the last six meetings as the home team
• PORT has won 17 of the last 25 meetings SU as the road team
• HOU has won eight of the last nine meetings SU as the home team
• HOU has had the shooting edge in each of the last four meetings
• HOU has made more three-pointers in four of the last six meetings

Tracy McGrady has ruled himself out for the rest of the season because he is worried about his knee. That’s actually not as bad a piece of news as you might imagine. Sure, McGrady has averaged over 15 points this season through that pain, and has a career average of 22 ppg, but he has never exactly been associated with winning. What wins in the NBA, especially in the post-season is defense, and that is something Houston’s team is designed toward. That’s why they picked up Ron Artest in the off-season. That’s why they have Yao Ming in the middle. That’s why Shane Battier plays such a key role on this team. These guys can score a little too, so let’s forget about the fact that the Rockets "need" McGrady around to be a factor.

Houston has scored three wins in a row since McGrady checked out, and they have allowed a total of 252 points in those games (84 ppg). That’s the kind of game they want to play, and they don’t have that bad an opponent to do that with here, since Portland scores 96 points a game when traveling, which is 22nd best in the NBA. The Rockets have held the New Jersey Nets to 40% shooting, Dallas to 39.5% and Charlotte to 36% in their last three games. If you’re following along, that is a good thing.

Now that Rafer Alston has been traded to Orlando, Aaron Brooks has taken over at the point and although we don’t envision an upgrade in this area, Brooks has at least put together almost a 2-to-1 ratio of assists to turnovers this season. The offense could be more efficient, though, since the sidelined McGrady hit only 39% of his shots.

Let’s talk about the technical numbers now. As a favorite of this level (3.5 to six points), Houston has not performed badly, covering in seven out of ten situations. Meanwhile, Portland is just 5-10 ATS as a road underdog. Greg Oden is most likely still not ready to rejoin the starting lineup for the Blazers, so we feel a little more comfortable about laying the points with the Rockets, the 4.5-point favorite in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

JAY’S PLAY:  HOUSTON -4.5
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay makes his share of shots from the top of the key as a contributor to the BetOnline Locker Room)