Must Win for the Bombers – New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

Game-day:  4/29/2009
Game-time:  7:05 pm est.

The New York Yankees take on the Detroit Tigers in a game that the Yankees almost have to win.  If they lose to Detroit tonight, then New York will have lost 5 out of their last 6 and really won’t have a shot to recover in the very difficult A.L. East Division.  New York could not only finish behind the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays but also behind the Toronto Blue Jays.  The only team the Yankees might beat in the division, if they continue to lose, will be the Baltimore Orioles.

New York sends Joba Chamberlain to the mound.  Chamberlain has talent but his off the field antics have led to a less than spectacular performance on the mound.  He hasn’t garnered a decision yet this season but his ERA of 3.94 and WHIP of 1.83 makes him a tough guy to back.  The WHIP should be difficult for gamblers to overcome.

Detroit counters with Rick Porcello.  Porcello has a worse record, 1 and 2, and a worse ERA, 4.50, but when it comes to WHIP, he’s better than Chamberlain at 1.17. 

Here is the BetOnline Sportsbook betting line for this game.

New York Yankees
Joba Chamberlain – R         -1 ½ -170         -135     O 9 -120          O/U 4 ½ -130/Ev

Detroit Tigers
Rick Porcello – R                  +1 ½ -140        +115    U 9 Ev                        O/U 4 ½ -125/-105

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

• The New York Yankees are 1 and 4 in Joba Chamberlain’s last 5 starts on the road.
• The New York Yankees are 1 and 4 in their last 5 games overall.
• The Detroit Tigers are 6 and 1 in their last 7 games following a loss.
• The Detroit Tigers are 8 and 3 in their last 11 home games.

The trends say that the Tigers pull this game out no matter what Porcello does.  I have to agree with the trends in this one because the Yankees were fantastic yesterday, beating the Tigers 11 to 0, but that was yesterday.

The Yankees aren’t better than the Tigers.  Not 11 to 0 better, and the Tigers will go into this fired up and ready to bounce back as the 6 to 1 after a loss trend suggests.

Another key stat is the fact that Chamberlain is averaging close to 2 base runners per inning while Porcello is averaging only 1.  If the WHIP stat plays out, then the Tigers will have more opportunities to score.

I like the Tigers in this at +115 in the sportsbook.