NCAA Football Betting – Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech in Week 1

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Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Thursday, September 10

BetOnline NCAA Football Betting Odds: GEORGIA TECH -4

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Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* CLEM has covered four of its last six games
* CLEM has won four of its last six games SU
* CLEM has covered five of its last seven games as a road dog
* GT has won nine of its last 13 games SU
* GT has covered eight of its last 11 games
* GT has covered four of its last five home games

Also…

* GT has won four of the last five meetings SU
* The last four meetings have gone UNDER the total
* GT has won four of the last six meetings SU as the home team
* CLEM has covered four of the last five meetings as the road team

One of the things you have to remember about Georgia Tech is that the Yellow Jackets return more starters than anyone in the Atlantic Coast Conference. What was amazing about the first season of Paul Johnson at the helm was that unlike, say, Michigan with Rich Rodriguez, Georgia Tech was able to integrate itself so much with a brand new offensive approach under a new coach in his initial season. The Jackets had 75 players who were in their first two seasons of college ball, and the most prominent of the returnees if Jonathan Dwyer, a genuine difference-maker who gained seven yards a carry and 1395 overall on the ground. Sure, John Nesbitt has not been an accurate passer (just 44% last year), but generally he doesn’t have to be because the flexbone attack Johnson brought to the Atlanta campus has been so effective.

In last year’s contest Clemson did a relatively effective job in slowing the Georgia Tech running attack, holding the Yellow Jackets to four yards a carry. Only Virginia and FBS entry Gardner-Webb did better. Dwyer had 109 yards on 21 carries, and Nesbitt was not able to make up the difference. Clemson’s pistons were not firing at all, however, and the Tigers’ 249 yards were not enough to escape a four-point defeat.

With James Davis and Cullen Harper having moved on, Clemson will be depending more on the other star in their backfield, C.J. Spiller, who got only 116 carries (for 5.4 ypc) as he had to share touches last season. Willy Korn and Kyle Parker, who is a redshirt freshman, have been battling it out for the quarterback job, but either guy will have the benefit of an offensive line that is bringing back all five starters.

The defensive unit kept Clemson in a lot of games last year; only Alabama and Florida State topped 21 points against it. Now the new head coach, Dabo Swinney, has eight starters coming back for that side. Clemson will be able to cheat a little by bringing a safety into the box; in this case it will be DeAndre McDaniel, who had 77 tackles last season.

There is a new atmosphere these days around Clemson, where Tommy Bowden, a good coach, kind of lost control of things last year, among other things clashing with then-QB Harper. Swinney brings in a team that gets to have a dress rehearsal of sorts against Middle Tennessee five days before this, not to mention a lot of talent coming back. Spiller is generally regarded to have more potential than Davis did, so he should thrive as the feature back. While Georgia Tech has an awful lot of depth at the running back spot, you won’t see them sneaking up on people like they did last year.

Ten of the last 13 meetings in this series have been decided by five points or less, so it would be not surprise if this thing went deep into the fourth quarter. We’ll grab the points with Clemson, the four-point underdog in the BetOnline NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: CLEMSON +4 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)