NFL Betting Breakdown – Dallas Cowboys Look Terrible (Nobody Surprised)

The Dallas Cowboys are entering the 2010 NFL betting season as tight +900 favorites to win Super Bowl XLV, giving them the exact same odds as the defending champion Saints. Like the Packers, the Cowboys are always a team that we say is “on the verge of turning the corner”. Too bad, that they’re tripping all over themselves on the way there.

America’s team has averaged just 12.0 points per game in the preseason, and that all starts and ends with Tony Romo. While he posted 4,483 yards and 26 touchdowns in the 2009 NFL betting season, the Dallas Cowboys failed to make the playoffs for a third time in five years. The sad thing is that they missed the post season with an 11-5 SU record while going 9-7 ATS.

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So why am I being so hard on the Dallas Cowboys? Well last season everything that possibly could go right for them did. And they still missed the playoffs. They ranked 6th in passing, 7th in rushing and 4th in opposing rushing yards.

On top of that Dallas struck gold with Miles Austin, who led the team with 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns. In three seasons prior to that, Austin had managed just 354 yards and 3 scores over. Austin caught everyone off guard last year, including Dallas, and gave his team a receiving threat when Roy Williams turned in to – well – Roy Williams. Simply put, Austin can only do marginally better in 2010 and needs someone other than Jason Witten to step up as his rightful sidekick.

Dez Bryant may be a great receiver in the future, but he’s still a rookie.

So let’s find reasons to be positive. First off, Marion Barber managed just 932 yards and 7 touchdowns last season which is actually on par for what Barber does. I’m getting to the positive part. Barber was injured for pretty much the entire season and played through the pain. This year, he’s showed up in great shape and has Felix Jones munching up the yardage between the twenties so he can return to being a red zone battering ram like we prefer him to be.

Now the bad part. The offensive line for Dallas looks terrible. One of the biggest reasons to make any team an NFL betting favorite is that they have a stout set of five in the trenches willing to put their own health on the line to save their backfield. Doug Free steps in at left tackle, and has looked completely lost in the preseason. Kyle Kosier is a decent left guard, but has been spotty in protection thus far.

Which means it’s going to be a long season for anyone that bet on the Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East at +120, or took Tony Romo as their fantasy quarterback.

That brings me to my next point. Go ahead an talk yourself in to the idea that the Cowboys are definitively better than the New York Giants or Philadelphia Eagles. See? You can’t. Even with questions at receiver for New York, and Kevin Kolb in Philadelphia, Dallas still doesn’t look like a convincing favorite in their own division.

Making matters worse for those that make their NFL betting picks based on schedule, the Cowboys have to play in Minnesota, in Green Bay, in Indianapolis and in Arizona on Christmas Day. Yikes. How did that happen?

With Tony Romo running for his life on every other play thanks to blown assignments on his tattered offensive line, Marion Barber and Felix Jones unable to find room between the tackles and Dez Bryant going through all the stumbling motions that a rookie receiver does, I can’t encourage the Cowboys as division champs, NFC champions or legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

They’re in this spot purely on namesake alone. As far as the 2010 NFL betting season, everyone expecting them to take the next step is going to be sorely disappointed. The Dallas Cowboys will take two steps back this year putting your NFL betting dollars in serious jeopardy.

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