NFL Line – Chargers Hope to Rebound in Preseason Finale

Those who challenge themselves against the NFL line know that the San Diego Chargers are not as bad as they showed last week in New Orleans, and this week they hope to rebound in the pre-season finale as they visit the Bay Area to take on the San Francisco 49ers, who are unbeaten so far. The game is slated to get underway at 10 PM ET at Candlestick Park (natural turf) in San Francisco, and offers an opportunity for fans to see two teams who could be in the post-season tournament. The Niners, the home squad, are a 3.5-point favorite in the NFL line, with the over-under on the game posted at 35.5 points.

San Diego Chargers (1-2 SU & ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0 SU & ATS)

Live at Candlestick Park
Thursday, September 2 — 10 PM ET
TV:  KFMB San Diego, CBS 5 San Francisco 

NFL Line:
San Francisco -3.5
San Diego +3.5
Total  35.5

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It was a tough pill to swallow for the Chargers last week – getting beaten from pillar to post by the New Orleans Saints, who ran up 552 yards (423 through the air) in the 36-21 victory at the Superdome. The Saints scored 17 offensive points in the first half and 12 in the second half, and there were big plays all over the place.  The last one was a Leigh Torrence interception of backup quarterback Billy Volek that went for an 87-yard touchdown. No one in Charger-land is happy with all of that.

An added problem for this team, which is a -300 favorite in the NFL line to win the AFC West, is the drama involving wide receiver Vincent Jackson, who is a restricted free agent (tendered by the club), is under a three-game suspension after a DUI, and refuses to come into camp unless he gets a long-term deal. He has been granted permission to work out a trade with Seattle if he can, and other teams seem to be interested in him. Whichever way you slice it, his actions, along with the holdout of left tackle Marcus McNeill, have been a distraction.

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL online picks on this game:

• San Diego has played five of its last seven road games OVER the total
• San Francisco has won six of its last seven games SU
• San Francisco has covered four of its last five games

What is a little different about the 49ers on Thursday night is that they will not use Alex Smith, who was nine of 15 last week against Oakland. Instead, you’re going to hear from David Carr, who did not look good against Oakland but certainly did against Indianapolis (9-11, 98 yards, TD), and Nate Davis, the Ball State alum who was seven-for-16 against the Vikings a couple of weeks ago after completing five of six passes against the Colts in the opener.  News also came out of Niner camp about an altercation in practice between wide receiver Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis. I’m not sure that incident is particularly meaningful when it comes to the way we are looking at this NFL line tonight, since both of them have been sitting out with injuries anyway.

When considering one of my big (or small, as it were) NFL online picks, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I expect the Niners to play their starters for any considerable length of time, or that they will display any special ferocity in an attempt to win. The absence of the starting quarterback clues us in on that. But they do appear to be the kind of team that is looking to get a little momentum going as the season approaches, because with Kurt Warner leaving Arizona and a transition in Seattle, there is a very good chance for this team to win a division. Indeed, the NFL line on them capturing the NFC West and getting to the playoffs is -120. They’ve run the ball pretty well, and have stopped the run pretty well, and even though they may be going through the motions to some extent, Mike Singletary doesn’t mind keeping up the intensity to some extent in these exhibitions, so in turn I don’t mind laying more than a field goal with this team that has won six of its last seven pre-season contests. We’ll go with the favored Niners against the NFL line on Thursday.

JAY’S PLAY:  SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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